The French Defence Plan 2019~2025 from 2019 stated at that time that the FAF was supposed to have received 171 Rafales by 2025 following the order of 28 Standard F4-1 aircrafts

presumably due to Indian MRCA program, AdlA was already short of 9 Rafales by 2019 compared to their original acquisition plan
If 14 are delivered in 2022 '(1) and 2023 (13) how can the 26/40 last of the T2 + Greece replacement to be delivered until 2027 (!) at a rate of 13 per year
reading the National Assembly document reported by H_K, the 12 replacements of the Croatian order are missing, for the moment, in the forecasts

Let me clarify some of the numbers, especially the differences between orders vs. fleet size:

- 180 Rafales were ordered in Tranches 1-4 (133 air force + 47 navy). Minus 5 losses and 4 trials aircraft, this leads to the 2025 fleet size goal of 171 Rafales in service (129 air force + 42 navy)

- Of these 180 orders, 152 were delivered by 2017 (106 air force + 46 navy), leading to an actual fleet size of 143 Rafales (102 air force + 41 navy)

- The disposal of 24 used Rafales to Greece & Croatia was timed to reduce the impact on fleet size as the disposals were offset by deliveries of the remaining 28 aircraft (of 180 ordered)
2021: -6 disposals
2022: +1 delivery
2023: +13 deliveries, -10 disposals, net +3
2024: +13 deliveries, -4 disposals, net +9
2025: +1 delivery (likely M47 for the navy), -4 disposals, net -3

- With the addition of 12 new orders to replace the Greek aircraft (to be delivered from early 2025 to Jan 2026), this brings total orders to 192 and the target early-2026 fleet size to 159 Rafales (117 air force + 42 navy), which is 12 short of the original target

- Finally, with the last 42 ordered in Tranche 5 (30 originally to replace the Mirage 2000-5s + 12 to replace the Croatian aircraft), to be delivered from 2027-30, this brings total orders to 234 and the target 2030 fleet size to 201 Rafales (159 air force + 42 navy)

- Since the force structure goal is 225 fighters (185 air force + 40 navy), this leaves a gap of 26 Rafales for the air force (+ any future attrition) so a future Tranche 6 of ~30 aircraft will need to be ordered for delivery from 2031-35. These will effectively replace the last 55 Mirage 2000Ds.
 
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@H_K : brilliant ! This confirms my thinking that a) one final slice of Rafale will have to be procured veeeeeeeeeeery late and that b) as result the 2000D will have to last veeeeeeeeery long.

The way it has worked since 1974 and the last (Algerian war) Skyraiders in Djibouti, you can bet those last 2000s will assume that peculiar mission until their wings falls off. The last F-100s ended at Djibouti in 1978, the last III-C, same place in 1988, the last F1-C and the last 2000C-RDI have follow the same pattern since then.

So, Mirage 2000D at Djibouti until 2035 ?
 
At least until then, any later will require a very long power cord. Seriously though, as long as they are maintained they will remain useful airframes.
 
Alternatively, someone could firmly order Dassault to increase their slow pacing manufacturing output. For example, you would say: no Phase 1x on FCAS without a dozen of Rafale delivery. And, in the meantime, start walking your way toward Fortworth...
 
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Not yet for Rafale in Colombia...

View: https://twitter.com/UltimaHoraCR/status/1609901480810582018?s=20&t=aZ6TEUXAbMqb5tX_SzJy4g

Google automatic translation:
The defense minister reveals in @6AMCaracol that the combat planes are no longer going to be bought. The term for CONPES (The National Council for Economic and Social Policy) has expired and for that reason there will be no business. The president and the council of ministers must seek a new CONPES during the year

View: https://twitter.com/erichsaumeth/status/1609913528080547842?s=20&t=CXM_4EkJDFs8bSQKmrTvhQ

Aircraft purchases have not fallen. In the end it was not signed, because the US 678 million was enough for 3/4 planes. The government preferred to make a new CONPES (prox Min Council), for a total value of 16 and thus sign ONE CONTRACT, not two, which was what bidding companies did not want
 
 
And a good read (in Fr) regarding the recent statement of AdlAE's Chieff of Staff (extract):

Ainsi, l’an prochain, « l’activité des pilotes de chasse devrait être ramenée à 150 heures par pilote » [la norme Otan est de 180 heures, ndlr], a-t-il encore précisé, confirmant ainsi les prévisions avancées dans les documents budgétaires. « Cela est soutenable dès lors que cela ne dure qu’une année. Cependant, l’activité devrait repartir à la hausse grâce en partie au re-complètement de la flotte Rafale avec la reprise des livraisons pour l’AAE », a continué le général Mille. Pour rappel, 13 Rafale F3R seront livrés en 2023… Et 42 exemplaires de plus seront commandés.

En tout cas, a-t-il insisté, « 2023 [sera] donc un point bas, très compliqué pour l’armée de l’Air et de l’Espace », d’autant plus que les engagements opérationnels demeurent élevés. D’où le recours, pour y remédier en partie, à la simulation.

« Faute d’un nombre de Rafale suffisants, des pilotes sur 2000 C n’ont pas pu basculer sur Rafale. Cela est gérable dans un temps court, compte tenu des progrès réalisés en matière de simulation », a en effet souligné le CEMAAE. « À Mont-de-Marsan, nous réalisons des expériences de simulation massive en réseaux ou encore d’insertion d’aspects simulés dans des missions réelles. Cela nous permettra de passer les échéances difficiles de 2023 et de 2024 », a-t-il conclu sur ce sujet.

Par ailleurs, et au-delà des perspectives qu’elle a pu ouvrir [interopérabilité, influence, etc], la vente de ces 24 Rafale d’occasion [à la Grèce et la Croatie, ndlr] va aussi permettre de compléter le nombre de radars à antenne active [AESA] en dotation au sein de l’AEE. « 20 % des appareils sont aujourd’hui dotés de radars AESA. Nous aurons des livraisons en 2023, avec pour objectif de passer à 50 % à la fin de l’année 2023. C’est un des bénéfices de nos exportations de Rafale. Nous avons en effet investi une partie des recettes de ces exportations sur les radars AESA », a expliqué le général Mille.
--------------------------//-----------------------------

Thus, next year, "the activity of fighter pilots should be reduced to 150 hours per pilot" [the NATO standard is 180 hours, editor's note], he further specified, thus confirming the forecasts put forward in budget documents. “It is sustainable as long as it only lasts a year. However, activity should pick up again thanks in part to the replenishment of the Rafale fleet with the resumption of deliveries for the AAE,” continued General Mille. As a reminder, 13 Rafale F3R will be delivered in 2023… And 42 more will be ordered.

In any case, he insisted, "2023 [will] therefore be a very complicated low point for the Air and Space Force", especially since operational commitments remain high. Hence the recourse, to remedy this in part, to simulation.

“For lack of a sufficient number of Rafale, pilots on 2000 C could not switch to Rafale. This is manageable in a short time, given the progress made in simulation,” CEMAAE pointed out. “At Mont-de-Marsan, we carry out massive simulation experiments in networks or even the insertion of simulated aspects into real missions. This will allow us to pass the difficult deadlines of 2023 and 2024”, he concluded on this subject.

Furthermore, and beyond the prospects it may have opened up [interoperability, influence, etc.], the sale of these 24 second-hand Rafales [to Greece and Croatia, editor's note] will also make it possible to complete the number of active antenna radars [EASA] provided within the AEE. “20% of aircraft are now equipped with AESA radars. We will have deliveries in 2023, with the aim of increasing to 50% by the end of 2023. This is one of the benefits of our Rafale exports. We have indeed invested part of the revenue from these exports on AESA radars,” explained General Mille.

 
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Please remember, this thread, as its title says, is a NEWS ONLY thread. News, in this sense, are sources,
that were published somewhere, no matter, of all participants in this thread here agree to them. It's up
to the reader then, to make up his mind.
Personal opinions from particiapnts here, are no news !

Must admit, that this long running debate hasn't been monitored, as I should have done, but better late
then never. So, please, back to NEWS ONLY !
 
Rafale M maybe ordered by India in March


(...)
New Delhi will most likely confirm the acquisition of the Rafale Marine from the tricolor aircraft manufacturer during Emmanuel Macron's visit to India scheduled for next March, according to our information. The precise date of the presidential trip would not yet be decided. But everything would be ready on the Indian side to announce the selection of the Rafale Marine, we explain to La Tribune. A contract could be signed quite soon after this announcement. Especially since in 2023, India and France will also celebrate the 25th anniversary of their strategic partnership.
“France is one of India's most reliable strategic partners,” the Indian Ministry of Defense recently said.
The Indian Navy, which eliminated Boeing's F-18 for technical reasons, has expressed an initial need for 26 aircraft to equip its "Made in India" aircraft carrier INS Vikrant. This device will allow the Indians to have a homogeneous fleet between the Rafale Air and the Rafale Marine.
(...)
 
Rafale M maybe ordered by India in March


(...)
New Delhi will most likely confirm the acquisition of the Rafale Marine from the tricolor aircraft manufacturer during Emmanuel Macron's visit to India scheduled for next March, according to our information. The precise date of the presidential trip would not yet be decided. But everything would be ready on the Indian side to announce the selection of the Rafale Marine, we explain to La Tribune. A contract could be signed quite soon after this announcement. Especially since in 2023, India and France will also celebrate the 25th anniversary of their strategic partnership.
“France is one of India's most reliable strategic partners,” the Indian Ministry of Defense recently said.
The Indian Navy, which eliminated Boeing's F-18 for technical reasons, has expressed an initial need for 26 aircraft to equip its "Made in India" aircraft carrier INS Vikrant. This device will allow the Indians to have a homogeneous fleet between the Rafale Air and the Rafale Marine.
(...)

As per Colombia - I will believe it when I'll see it ! Particularly for India, how many years since 2007 or even before ? between the Air Force back and forth, and now the Navy... tortured procurement processes - that's an understatement !
 
Personally I think the Rafale M deal in India will go through soon, simply because there's an urgency to equip fixed wing aircraft on the Vikrant, and potentially the issues with the MiG-29Ks on the Vikramaditya.

Colombia however, I have some doubts.
 
Personally I think the Rafale M deal in India will go through soon, simply because there's an urgency to equip fixed wing aircraft on the Vikrant, and potentially the issues with the MiG-29Ks on the Vikramaditya.

Colombia however, I have some doubts.

Rafale-M for the Indian navy. That would be good for India as the Air Force also has ordered the Rafale so that would be a sign of commonality between the two military services and less of a problem between the maintainers of the aircraft and the necessary tooling to carry out such tasks on the aircraft.
 
And of course France own expérience is proof on the pudding... it can be done. Took 30 years to get there but we are getting tantalizing close from standardizing the full and entire fast jet force - AdA plus Aéronavale - around the Rafale only - and no other type. Only the last few 2000s are still resisting the onslaught.
 
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Lithuania based Rafale and Flankers video:


Notice the articulated fabric covered deployable hangar shell at the end.
 
First iteration of Rafale 4.1 delivered to the AdlAE (CEAM - software upgrades only). A second expected in a week.

2023_A330_041_K_002_011.jpg


 
Rafale F5 short brief with a Scramjet nuclear hypersonic vector, possibly, depending on final mass of the system, and the admission, long forseen, at least by me, that Rafale don't have yet a complete data fusion despite endless forum's debates asserting categorically the affirmative, due to an outdated electric architecture:


Only latest New built F5 standards are expected with full data fusion. FAS (Nuclear forces) seems to be the end-user of this block.
 
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Wild wolves, Egyptian squadron flying Rafale, first to pass 10k flight hours among export customers:

 
Wild wolves, Egyptian squadron flying Rafale, first to pass 10k flight hours among export customers:


Well done for passing 10,000 flight hours in the Rafale and the first export customer squadron to do so as well.
 
Delivery of Rafale for France dalayed by 2 years:
[...] livraisons de 42 avions Rafale, prévues entre 2027 et 2030, devraient finalement s’étaler jusqu’en 2032. Ce qui fait qu’elle ne disposera que de 137 Rafale en 2030, alors qu’elle devait en aligner 185.
—------------------------//------------------------------

[...] deliveries of 42 Rafale aircraft, scheduled between 2027 and 2030, should finally be completed by 2032. This means that it will only have 137 Rafale in 2030, when it was supposed to field 185.


For those that are interested, notice how France pays the equivalent of one single year of a full MoD budget just for Maintenance (40% increase at it seems). Delaying production has never been so directly profitable!
 
So, now it is 137 instead of 180, even with extremely advanced capabilities. As much as I love the Rafale, the AdA and Aéronavale seem to be heading straight to Norman Augustine proverbial law number 16

By Rafale F8 standard, they will be just one Rafale M airframe to be used alternatively by the AdA and Aéronavale.

Repeating myself (I know) but exactly 30 years ago I was clipping the local newspaper for my aerospace scrapbook; and the scrap of paper title was "320 Rafales confirmés" (= 320 Rafale (order) confirmed). The year was 1993. Still have the scrapbooks at my Mom's house 100 miles from here.

In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one tactical aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3½ days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.

In the year 2054, France entire defense budget will purchase just one Rafale F8 tactical aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3½ days each per week.

We are getting closer - from the year and from that final result, altogether.
 
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GaN Radar RBE2X for Rafale Block V enters development phase (link in Fr):

 
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As India prime minister is invited for France Bastide day defile, on the 14th of July, rumors for an extra Rafale order (26 - Navy?) and Scorpene Submarines (6) are rising:


Regarding Indian participation to the defile: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/actualites/14-juillet-2023-linde-invitee-dhonneur-du-defile


And... We have also as much rebuttal in the disciplined press.
 
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The most alarming would be the overflyings of French Navy vessels by Russian Aircraft that have to be flagged by the UN while French administration stays mute.
 
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Still a lot of confusion regarding a potential deal for some extra Rafale (and Scorpene Submarines) with Modi attenting the France Bastide day. Yesterday it was said that the Indian chamber had to validate the sale on the 13th of July (yes the day before the event). The apparent early agreement sounds awkward for now (the report).:

Sadly, also, Spain just signed a contract for Indian Navy submarines and l, in France, a participation to the Indian Navy next fighter, the TEDBF, was raised as a potential "good to go".
 
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New Delhi's Defence Acquisition Council approved proposals for the purchases, the defence ministry said in a statement, but it added the price and other terms still had to be negotiated with the French government.
The discussions over the long-awaited deals would take into account "all relevant aspects, including comparative procurement price of similar aircraft by other countries", the statement said.
 
Let me celebrate. This is more than a compensation for that AUKUS / Attack quagmire... sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. C'est la vie.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Exb5itX1UGU

Now, much more seriously... I recently learned that the number of Aéronavale Rafale M, once 100, then 71, then 60, was closer from 47 airframes.
Let's hope that this Indian deal, first of its kind for the more specialized Rafale M, help the Aéronavale to return to its bare minimum of 60. Of course 71 (like the S.E back in the day) would be ideal...

Why is it so hard for the Aéronavale to get those 60 airframes ? 47 is way off the mark... plus not all of these Rafales are at the same standard, which diminish the fleet value even more.
 
Well done, I always had thought that India would go for the Rafale M for the navy. So I take it that it will be a similar weapons mix as the Indian airforce Rafale's?
 
Well done, I always had thought that India would go for the Rafale M for the navy. So I take it that it will be a similar weapons mix as the Indian airforce Rafale's?

The AdA & MN Rafales have 99% or even 100% same armement as long as they are at the same standard (F3, F3R, F4). Except perhaps for Exocet, which for very obvious reasons is MN specific. Can AdA Rafales fire Exocets ? never bothered asking... I do know that for Dassault: no problem since at least iraqis F1EQ, 40 years ago...
 
So it will depend on what variant of Rafale the Indian Airforce got and what variant the navy gets as to what weapons package is on order.
 

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