The French Defence Plan 2019~2025 from 2019 stated at that time that the FAF was supposed to have received 171 Rafales by 2025 following the order of 28 Standard F4-1 aircrafts
presumably due to Indian MRCA program, AdlA was already short of 9 Rafales by 2019 compared to their original acquisition plan
If 14 are delivered in 2022 '(1) and 2023 (13) how can the 26/40 last of the T2 + Greece replacement to be delivered until 2027 (!) at a rate of 13 per year
reading the National Assembly document reported by H_K, the 12 replacements of the Croatian order are missing, for the moment, in the forecasts
Let me clarify some of the numbers, especially the differences between orders vs. fleet size:
- 180 Rafales were ordered in Tranches 1-4 (133 air force + 47 navy). Minus 5 losses and 4 trials aircraft, this leads to the 2025 fleet size goal of 171 Rafales in service (129 air force + 42 navy)
- Of these 180 orders, 152 were delivered by 2017 (106 air force + 46 navy), leading to an actual fleet size of 143 Rafales (102 air force + 41 navy)
- The disposal of 24 used Rafales to Greece & Croatia was timed to reduce the impact on fleet size as the disposals were offset by deliveries of the remaining 28 aircraft (of 180 ordered)
2021: -6 disposals
2022: +1 delivery
2023: +13 deliveries, -10 disposals, net +3
2024: +13 deliveries, -4 disposals, net +9
2025: +1 delivery (likely M47 for the navy), -4 disposals, net -3
- With the addition of 12 new orders to replace the Greek aircraft (to be delivered from early 2025 to Jan 2026), this brings total orders to 192 and the target early-2026 fleet size to 159 Rafales (117 air force + 42 navy), which is 12 short of the original target
- Finally, with the last 42 ordered in Tranche 5 (30 originally to replace the Mirage 2000-5s + 12 to replace the Croatian aircraft), to be delivered from 2027-30, this brings total orders to 234 and the target 2030 fleet size to 201 Rafales (159 air force + 42 navy)
- Since the force structure goal is 225 fighters (185 air force + 40 navy), this leaves a gap of 26 Rafales for the air force (+ any future attrition) so a future Tranche 6 of ~30 aircraft will need to be ordered for delivery from 2031-35. These will effectively replace the last 55 Mirage 2000Ds.
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