Dassault Rafale NEWS ONLY

[red admiral]

So it looks like earlier delivery is a major reason. Will this be more airframes drawn from French Air Force frontline?

 

[Archibald]

My mind is blown. Then - I went looking on Google, and half the news says "DONE DEAL" and the other "MAYBE - NOT YET."

 

[Archibald]

So it looks like earlier delivery is a major reason. Will this be more airframes drawn from French Air Force frontline?

Hell NO, not that siliness again. As I said many times - 320 Rafales planned in 1993, a 180 target nowadays, and actually only 90 in service those days. If we start cutting into that last number... meanwhile the AdA fighter force should be 225... half of 1993 450 treshold... to think they didn't wanted to go below that treshold...

 

[Deltafan]

My mind is blown. Then - I went looking on Google, and half the news says "DONE DEAL" and the other "MAYBE - NOT YET."

The original article says "MAYBE - NOT YET"

Through a press release, the Government has explained that it is currently negotiating to acquire 16 new aircraft for an amount of 15 billion pesos (approximately 3,150 million dollars).
The administration headed by Gustavo Petro has wanted to make it clear that nothing has yet been signed and that it is a pre-selection in which the final details are still being negotiated.

 

[Deltafan]

So it looks like earlier delivery is a major reason. Will this be more airframes drawn from French Air Force frontline?

Hell NO, not that siliness again. As I said many times - 320 Rafales planned in 1993, a 180 target nowadays, and actually only 90 in service those days. If we start cutting into that last number... meanwhile the AdA fighter force should be 225... half of 1993 450 treshold... to think they didn't wanted to go below that treshold...

To deliver 3 to 5 new airframes to Colombia in 2023, the only solution seems to puncture new cells on the production line which must deliver the 13 planes for the French Air Force in 2023...

 

[Archibald]

My mind is blown. Then - I went looking on Google, and half the news says "DONE DEAL" and the other "MAYBE - NOT YET."

The original article says "MAYBE - NOT YET"

Through a press release, the Government has explained that it is currently negotiating to acquire 16 new aircraft for an amount of 15 billion pesos (approximately 3,150 million dollars).
The administration headed by Gustavo Petro has wanted to make it clear that nothing has yet been signed and that it is a pre-selection in which the final details are still being negotiated.

And your signature (well, Yoda) says - "Always in motion is the future..." We have been there before, with the Rafale. You know it is not done deal when La Tribune says "it is".

 

[Deltafan]

My mind is blown. Then - I went looking on Google, and half the news says "DONE DEAL" and the other "MAYBE - NOT YET."

The original article says "MAYBE - NOT YET"

Through a press release, the Government has explained that it is currently negotiating to acquire 16 new aircraft for an amount of 15 billion pesos (approximately 3,150 million dollars).
The administration headed by Gustavo Petro has wanted to make it clear that nothing has yet been signed and that it is a pre-selection in which the final details are still being negotiated.

And your signature (well, Yoda) says - "Always in motion is the future..." We have been there before, with the Rafale. You know it is not done deal when La Tribune says "it is".

I know... (Morocco, Brazil, Switzerland [UAE for a long time] and probably others).

That's why I highlighted those excerpts in my original post yesterday. And that's why I very often write "to be confirmed" when I make this kind of announcement on the Rafale...

 

[Jackonicko]

Rafale is becoming the developing World's fighter of choice. A twin-engined, AESA equipped aircraft taking orders from F-16 and Gripen. Who'd have guessed?

Bloody good work by the French Government and finance people.

 

[TomcatViP]

Let's hope that it's profitable for the ones who give work to the finance people!

But, hell yeah, when you drop the hollow superlatives and the anti-US rethoric, concentrate on customers concerns, that works a little bit better.

 

[F-2]

I think the Rafale has the the legacy hornets market. You want something bigger than a viper. The super hornet and typhoon are a bit specialized for their main user.

 

[Archibald]

I think the Rafale has the the legacy hornets market. You want something bigger than a viper. The super hornet and typhoon are a bit specialized for their main user.

Things are coming full circle then. Back in 1977 the Tornado and Mirage 4000 told France and Europe that F-15 & F-111 size combat aircraft sold pretty badly. And that they cost too much for European countries. Then the P.530 / F-17 / F-18L / F-18A showed the way, and so did the J101 & F404. "Yes, a twin jet fighter can be afforded if the engines are small too. RB.199 & EJ200, later followed by M88.

And now, 45 years later, picking a Hornet rather than an Eagle size is starting to pay off. It was high time !

 

[F-2]

RC

I think the Rafale has the the legacy hornets market. You want something bigger than a viper. The super hornet and typhoon are a bit specialized for their main user.

Things are coming full circle then. Back in 1977 the Tornado and Mirage 4000 told France and Europe that F-15 & F-111 size combat aircraft sold pretty badly. And that they cost too much for European countries. Then the P.530 / F-17 / F-18L / F-18A showed the way, and so did the J101 & F404. "Yes, a twin jet fighter can be afforded if the engines are small too. RB.199 & EJ200, later followed by M88.

And now, 45 years later, picking a Hornet rather than an Eagle size is starting to pay off. It was high time !

RCS and AESA changed the balance of size for non VLO.

 

[red admiral]

You've got to remember that it isn't really an open market like buying a new car or something.

Rafale sales seem to have been majorly helped by:

• US clampdown on proliferation of its technology e.g. locking down on what end users can change themselves, integration of 3rd party weapons, sensors etc all significantly increase proliferation. Definitely has hurt F-16 / F-18. Whereas France appears happy to sell anything (apart from nukes) to anyone
• Significant French government financing help which seems to range all the way up to almost gifting second hand ones. Basically French government is paying to keep the production line alive but doesn't want to pay to sustain more aircraft so Dassault can sell at significantly below cost and undercut everyone else. (We should note that the US has previously taken this sort of approach with F-5 etc.)
• Rafale is capable enough for many countries needs. For the countries that have capability as a larger driver then F-35 is pretty much mopping up where it is offered

 

[helmutkohl]

i mean what options are there?
if an air force wants something bigger than an F-16, which is obviously bigger than a Gripen, then what choices do they have?
There are Russian aircraft but they are hit with sanctions
so its pretty much just the Rafale, Typhoon, and the J-10
with the Typhoon being too expensive for many operators and the J-10 that has limited appeal

 

[Archibald]

Rafale ain't truly VLO but must be second best to F-35 as far as "data fusion / network" is concerned. It shines a lot in that area.

 

[F.L.]

There are Russian aircraft but they are hit with sanctions

I don't believe that sanctions prevent Russian planes to be sell.

 

[red admiral]

Rafale ain't truly VLO but must be second best to F-35 as far as "data fusion / network" is concerned. It shines a lot in that area.

Its impossible to make comparisons. By what metrics is something "better"? Its not a "sensor fusion" = tick job done. But that is basically all that gets reported. Its basically impossible to tell from open sources.

I think the best sources are from pilot interviews, but these focus on PVI aspects, and don't give you a cokparison across different types.

 

[Trident]

You've got to remember that it isn't really an open market like buying a new car or something.

True, but I'd argue this doesn't seem to have been a huge contributor to Rafale's success, if you examine things more closely. It seems to have sold largely on merit.

The deals Rafale has successfully secured aren't the kind of markets which can be considered to all intents and purposes captive. In fact, where it hasn't prevailed over late-model US teen-series fighters and/or Typhoon in competition, it often operates alongside these (Qatar, UAE, possibly Indonesia & Egypt) . The notion that its customers are distinguished by a lack of access to other (even specifically US) options certainly does not ring true.

Significant French government financing help which seems to range all the way up to almost gifting second hand ones.

As you note yourself, this is a tactic which everyone who has the opportunity uses, and as a factor will have worked against Rafale as often as not. It also has a history (Switzerland, Brazil, South Korea) of coming out ahead of the eventual winner on technical grounds in selections it ended up losing. I don't think it can be singled out as having heavily benefited from political interference.

Rafale is capable enough for many countries needs.

Sure, but so are plenty of other 4.5 gen entrants. Yet Rafale seems to be doing well relative to these peers.

 

[Deltafan]

It seems to be accelerating and becoming clearer in Colombia:

Infodefensa article, with the title: Colombia will sign this week with Dassault the purchase of the Rafale fighter

Colombia firmará esta semana con Dassault la compra del caza Rafale

El Gobierno colombiano y la firma francesa Dassault Aviation sellarán esta semana la compra del caza polivalente Rafale C/F3, con el que la Fuerza Aérea Colombiana (FAC) iniciará e ...

www.infodefensa.com

The Colombian government and the French firm Dassault Aviation will this week seal the purchase of the Rafale C/F3 multipurpose fighter, with which the Colombian Air Force (FAC) will begin the process of renewing its air superiority fleet. The South American country's intention is to acquire a total of 16 of these aircraft (12 single-seaters and four two-seaters), but the initial contract will be for between three and four units worth approximately 678 million dollars.
(...)
approximately $2.8 billion for the acquisition of the remaining 13 units. The acquisition of these devices will be financed by the French State for 20 years, with a grace period of five years. As Infodefensa.com was able to confirm, the first deliveries to Colombia would start at the beginning of 2025, so that the Colombian Air Force can start operating its new fighter quickly.
(...)

That other site adds:

France has offered to lend 4 Rafales in case all Kfirs are withdrawn from service in 2023

https://i.postimg.cc/kXKPHB6y/Rafale-columbia.jpg

 

[GTX]

Colombia closes in on purchase of 16 French Rafale fighter planes

Colombia has shortlisted a French bid to sell 16 Rafale fighter planes to the South American nation for up to $3.15 billion, the Colombian government said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Archibald]

I nuked the silly thing into oblivion, wasn't appropriate. Back to Rafale.

 

[TomcatViP]

Speaking of nuke, we have possibly here 4 less Rafale for the AdlAE.

The grand total of offloaded to other air forces in-service Rafale would then be 28 (twenty eight).

At 150M€ the unit price (factoring consecutive upgrades - a very conservative number), it's 4.2B that would have flown away (not counting spare and toolings).

I am fully for this deal but, when even the head of the Fr AF publicly voice his discontent regarding the impact of his shrinking fleet on training and mission success, doesn't it sound rather inappropriate to do so?

Probably that's where the unlimited energy of some should go.

 

[H_K]

Not sure if I posted this before… here’s the Rafale fleet size projections for the Armée de l’Air. The fleet is now growing again (slowly), even with continued deliveries to Greece and Croatia.

The peak fleet size was 102 Rafale B/Cs from 2018-20. This then shrank slightly to 96 Rafales in 2021-22 (due to delivery of 6 used Rafales to Greece).

Tome VI - Défense : Préparation et emploi des forces : Air

www.assemblee-nationale.fr

 

[Archibald]

159... in 2030. So, 180 in 2045 ? and 225 in 2060 ?

 

[red admiral]

As a comparison the RAF has had their full 160 Typhoons since 2019

There are interesting trade offs in the different programmes

 

[Deltafan]

159... in 2030. So, 180 in 2045 ? and 225 in 2060 ?

Don't forget the 42 to 44 Rafale Marine (4 crashed, M47 is currently dedicated to testing and I don't know if M48 will be delivered and if yes, where it is inside the future deliveries)

Otherwise, reading the National Assembly document reported by H_K, the 12 replacements of the Croatian order are missing, for the moment, in the forecasts (the 12 replacements of the Greek order are foreseen).

 

[Deltafan]

As a comparison the RAF has had their full 160 Typhoons since 2019

Weren't there 16 T1s withdrawn from service in 2020 (and another 8 T1s to be withdrawn from service by 2025)?

 

[Deltafan]

Not sure if I posted this before… here’s the Rafale fleet size projections for the Armée de l’Air. The fleet is now growing again (slowly), even with continued deliveries to Greece and Croatia.

The peak fleet size was 102 Rafale B/Cs from 2018-20. This then shrank slightly to 96 Rafales in 2021-22 (due to delivery of 6 used Rafales to Greece

Tome VI - Défense : Préparation et emploi des forces : Air

www.assemblee-nationale.fr

Something seems wrong in the text :

With regard to deliveries, it is expected that the Air and Space Force will receive one Rafale in December 2022 and thirteen Rafales in 2023. This is the first Rafale delivery in 5 years for the benefit of the air and space forces. This resumption of deliveries comes within the framework of the execution of the so-called 4T2 tranche, which provides for the delivery of 40 Rafale: 28 which were planned under the LPM and whose delivery has constantly been postponed for budgetary reasons, and twelve additional under the Greek export replenishment order placed in January 2021. It is planned that these 40 Rafales will be delivered to the Air and Space Force until 2027, at a rate of 13 per year.

If 14 are delivered in 2022 '(1) and 2023 (13) how can the 26/40 last of the T2 + Greece replacement to be delivered until 2027 (!) at a rate of 13 per year ? Besides, it doesn't match your table.

In my files (don't remember the source), for Croatia: 12 used (10 C + 2 B). 1 per month from September 2023 to February 2024 and another per month from November 2024 to April 2025.

 

[Deltafan]

10th Rafale for Greece (21.12.2022)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605522240958668800

View: https://twitter.com/Stam_Pittas/status/1605522240958668800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1605522240958668800%7Ctwgr%5Ed07f234b86d7028044cb930836f9f7c89d780149%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.air-defense.net%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FStam_Pittas%2Fstatus%2F1605522240958668800%3Ft%3D0Vhn7m9YcPhQt7IbcxHfIw26s%3D19

 

[Maro.Kyo]

You've got to remember that it isn't really an open market like buying a new car or something.

Rafale sales seem to have been majorly helped by:

• US clampdown on proliferation of its technology e.g. locking down on what end users can change themselves, integration of 3rd party weapons, sensors etc all significantly increase proliferation. Definitely has hurt F-16 / F-18. Whereas France appears happy to sell anything (apart from nukes) to anyone
• Significant French government financing help which seems to range all the way up to almost gifting second hand ones. Basically French government is paying to keep the production line alive but doesn't want to pay to sustain more aircraft so Dassault can sell at significantly below cost and undercut everyone else. (We should note that the US has previously taken this sort of approach with F-5 etc.)
• Rafale is capable enough for many countries needs. For the countries that have capability as a larger driver then F-35 is pretty much mopping up where it is offered

The biggest helping hand in recent success of Rafale was LM themselves, or more to be exact the transition of F-16 production lines from FW to Greenville for the sake of F-35s on FW. They've ceased production for a few years during the transition and with current capacity of GV facility they are only able to manufacture four F-16s a month. Not a small number by any means, but their backlogs are full until late 2020s. Add to that the increased program cost of F-16 Block 70/72 which nullified its major advantage over Rafale.

It also has a history (Switzerland, Brazil, South Korea) of coming out ahead of the eventual winner on technical grounds in selections it ended up losing.

Talking about the program in Korea, Rafale wasn't ahead of F-15 on technical grounds and was very closely matched, with some aspects being clearly inferior. The Rafale at the time only existed in Standard F1 and from what I know, Dassault offered Standard F2 for the ROKAF with several additional options. One of them was that they would prepare the upgrade program to RBE2AA for reduced price one that radar was ready. In terms of radar specifications, the RBE2 had some shortcoming compared to the AN/APG-63(v)1 of the modified F-15E based offer of the MD/Boeing (later F-15K), especially in terms of SAR resolution and NCTR capabilities, according to the ROKAF evaluation.

Other offer from the French side also included an upgrade program of the M88 engines. They've offered to develop M88-3 with their own funds and supply them to the ROKAF to retrofit/replace the M88-2. A lot of the French promises were considered to be far-fetched with no guarantees at the time for an aircraft that was directly hit by the end of cold-war and was only being operated on its interim specification of Standard F1. Now things have changed a lot but today's evaluation doesn't really fit Rafale of the late 90s/early 2000s, when the 1st F-X program evaluation was on full-force. I should note that the Rafale came very, very close to the F-15E based offer though.

Even so, considering that the ToT offset from Boeing as a result of the selection of F-15K for the F-X resulted in some of the key technologies for Korean aviation industry, including the mission computers and FLCS, I would say that the F-15K was the right choice over Rafale at the time; historically, it has been hard to obtain ToT grants from the US gov. but once it was granted, the US always kept their promise. This has not so much been the case with the French, which is exactly the reason Korean engineers dearly prefer a cooperation program with the US rather than France.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

159... in 2030. So, 180 in 2045 ? and 225 in 2060 ?

As Deltafan said, the 225 number includes the total number of Rafales to be acquired by both the AdlA and the MN.

With regard to deliveries, it is expected that the Air and Space Force will receive one Rafale in December 2022 and thirteen Rafales in 2023. This is the first Rafale delivery in 5 years for the benefit of the air and space forces. This resumption of deliveries comes within the framework of the execution of the so-called 4T2 tranche, which provides for the delivery of 40 Rafale: 28 which were planned under the LPM and whose delivery has constantly been postponed for budgetary reasons, and twelve additional under the Greek export replenishment order placed in January 2021. It is planned that these 40 Rafales will be delivered to the Air and Space Force until 2027, at a rate of 13 per year.

If 14 are delivered in 2022 '(1) and 2023 (13) how can the 26/40 last of the T2 + Greece replacement to be delivered until 2027 (!) at a rate of 13 per year ? Besides, it doesn't match your table.

In my files (don't remember the source), for Croatia: 12 used (10 C + 2 B). 1 per month from September 2023 to February 2024 and another per month from November 2024 to April 2025.

The numbers not matching is not something new. The French Defence Plan 2019~2025 from 2019 stated at that time that the FAF was supposed to have received 171 Rafales by 2025 following the order of 28 Standard F4-1 aircrafts from 2019 and was planning to order 30 Standard F4-2 aircrafts in 2023 with scheduled delivery ending by 2030. The same document also mentioned that they were planning to complete their order and delivery of 225 Rafales by 2030, but ordering only 30 aircraft in 2023 meant that 14 aircrafts were still in need. The plan on how they were supposed to acquire these 14 aircrafts wasn't exactly specified in the Defence Plan 2019~2025. I've also found it weird that the numbers were contradicting themselves within the French Defence Plan 2019~2025 document.

Besides, due to the mentioned interruption of Rafale deliveries to AdlA, presumably due to Indian MRCA program, AdlA was already short of 9 Rafales by 2019 compared to their original acquisition plan.

 

[Deltafan]

The same document also mentioned that they were planning to complete their order and delivery of 225 Rafales by 2030, but ordering only 30 aircraft in 2023 meant that 14 aircrafts were still in need. The plan on how they were supposed to acquire these 14 aircrafts wasn't exactly specified in the Defence Plan 2019~2025.

Yes, to reach 225 (185 B/C + 40 M, as expected), France will need an additional order beyond tranche 5. But this additional order is never mentioned anywhere...

 

[helmutkohl]

Even so, considering that the ToT offset from Boeing as a result of the selection of F-15K for the F-X resulted in some of the key technologies for Korean aviation industry, including the mission computers and FLCS, I would say that the F-15K was the right choice over Rafale at the time; historically, it has been hard to obtain ToT grants from the US gov. but once it was granted, the US always kept their promise. This has not so much been the case with the French, which is exactly the reason Korean engineers dearly prefer a cooperation program with the US rather than France.

for a while I had always wondered if Korea should have selected the Rafale back then. Indeed the model presented at the time was lacking, but since then it has grown quite a bit and evolved into the promises and claims that Dassault made.
But as you mentioned, the ToT was important, and I believe vital in allowing Korea to produce the KF-21, which is probably the preferred outcome anyways.

 

[Archibald]

D'ooooh, keep forgetting that point. Wasn't Aeronavale order 60 ? How did we got to 50-less ??!!

EDIT
- so it wasn't 60 but 58
- then four crashed, so 54
- then M47 & M48 vanished from the order, so 52...

 

[Deltafan]

D'ooooh, keep forgetting that point. Wasn't Aeronavale order 60 ? How did we got to 50-less ??!!

EDIT
- so it wasn't 60 but 58
- then four crashed, so 54
- then M47 & M48 vanished from the order, so 52...

The explanation :

Successive targets for the number of aircraft (date target):

-1989: 320 aircraft in 2010
-2004: 294 Rafale (234 for the Air Force and 60 M single-seaters for the Navy)
-2008: 286 aircraft (228 for the Air Force and 58 for the Navy)
-LPM 2013-2019: 255 combat aircraft in stock (Rafale and Mirage 2000)
-LPM 2019-2025: 171 Rafale in 2025; 225 Rafale (including 40 navy) in 2030

The 2014-2018 military programming law will ultimately not be respected because the Rafale M47 cell is requisitioned by the DGA for fatigue tests and the order for the last Rafale M48 is cancelled. The fleet in line of the Navy will therefore finally be 42 Rafale: the Rafale M1 reserved for the tests, the three flotillas 11F, 12F and 17F of 12 Rafale M each, the transformation center of Saint-Dizier of 3 Rafale M, and finally 2 Rafale M in reserve for maintenance periods.

Dassault Rafale — Wikipédia

fr.wikipedia.org

At least in one post-2018 review (I don't remember the source) I have however seen M48 maintained (probably a mistake)...

 

[Maro.Kyo]

for a while I had always wondered if Korea should have selected the Rafale back then. Indeed the model presented at the time was lacking, but since then it has grown quite a bit and evolved into the promises and claims that Dassault made.
But as you mentioned, the ToT was important, and I believe vital in allowing Korea to produce the KF-21, which is probably the preferred outcome anyways.

Hindsight is 20-20 and Rafale's become such a different plane/product in the last 2 decades in so many ways that I don't think it's fair to argue about ROKAF's choice on what we've seen in the recent years.

As I've mentioned, one of the major downside of Rafale at the time was its upgrade costs to make up the deficits it had against F-15K, but this year it has been set that the upgrade program of the 59 F-15Ks would cost more than $2.7 billion. I'm not sure how much the accumulative Rafale upgrade programs to each Standards would've costed in total for the ROKAF up to this point but I don't think it would've been cheaper.

Also, the biggest deficit it had against F-15K was that it wasn't able to use US ordnances which were in large stocks within the ROKAF inventory, most notably AMRAAM so there's that as well.

 

[Cjc]

You've got to remember that it isn't really an open market like buying a new car or something.

Rafale sales seem to have been majorly helped by:

• US clampdown on proliferation of its technology e.g. locking down on what end users can change themselves, integration of 3rd party weapons, sensors etc all significantly increase proliferation. Definitely has hurt F-16 / F-18. Whereas France appears happy to sell anything (apart from nukes) to anyone
• Significant French government financing help which seems to range all the way up to almost gifting second hand ones. Basically French government is paying to keep the production line alive but doesn't want to pay to sustain more aircraft so Dassault can sell at significantly below cost and undercut everyone else. (We should note that the US has previously taken this sort of approach with F-5 etc.)
• Rafale is capable enough for many countries needs. For the countries that have capability as a larger driver then F-35 is pretty much mopping up where it is offered

The biggest helping hand in recent success of Rafale was LM themselves, or more to be exact the transition of F-16 production lines from FW to Greenville for the sake of F-35s on FW. They've ceased production for a few years during the transition and with current capacity of GV facility they are only able to manufacture four F-16s a month. Not a small number by any means, but their backlogs are full until late 2020s. Add to that the increased program cost of F-16 Block 70/72 which nullified its major advantage over Rafale.

I'm pretty sure the rafale is still a lot more expensive the the block 72, but that production delay has definitely hurt the f-16, not that I think lock mark particularly cares.

 

[Archibald]

for a while I had always wondered if Korea should have selected the Rafale back then. Indeed the model presented at the time was lacking, but since then it has grown quite a bit and evolved into the promises and claims that Dassault made.
But as you mentioned, the ToT was important, and I believe vital in allowing Korea to produce the KF-21, which is probably the preferred outcome anyways.

Hindsight is 20-20 and Rafale's become such a different plane/product in the last 2 decades in so many ways that I don't think it's fair to argue about ROKAF's choice on what we've seen in the recent years.

As I've mentioned, one of the major downside of Rafale at the time was its upgrade costs to make up the deficits it had against F-15K, but this year it has been set that the upgrade program of the 59 F-15Ks would cost more than $2.7 billion. I'm not sure how much the accumulative Rafale upgrade programs to each Standards would've costed in total for the ROKAF up to this point but I don't think it would've been cheaper.

Also, the biggest deficit it had against F-15K was that it wasn't able to use US ordnances which were in large stocks within the ROKAF inventory, most notably AMRAAM so there's that as well.

A lot of essential avionic stuff was missing from the Aéronavale F1 standard, that's a given. It was a contraption hurled into service by May 2001. Early AdA F2s were probably not much better. So against a matured F-15E (1986 - 2001, 15 years of development) I can see why Rafale lost.

Also for 10 years the French Gvt - Dassault - AdA relationship - essential as a united front when selling aircraft abroad - was pretty disfunctional if not dismal. It took some crippling blows between 2008 and 2013 to turn the tide and shake the complacency. That first win in Egypt in 2015 did not came randomly.

 

[TomcatViP]

That's right. It came with a lot of breathtaking credits... French financed.

 

[H_K]

The French Defence Plan 2019~2025 from 2019 stated at that time that the FAF was supposed to have received 171 Rafales by 2025 following the order of 28 Standard F4-1 aircrafts

presumably due to Indian MRCA program, AdlA was already short of 9 Rafales by 2019 compared to their original acquisition plan

If 14 are delivered in 2022 '(1) and 2023 (13) how can the 26/40 last of the T2 + Greece replacement to be delivered until 2027 (!) at a rate of 13 per year

reading the National Assembly document reported by H_K, the 12 replacements of the Croatian order are missing, for the moment, in the forecasts

Let me clarify some of the numbers, especially the differences between orders vs. fleet size:

- 180 Rafales were ordered in Tranches 1-4 (133 air force + 47 navy). Minus 5 losses and 4 trials aircraft, this leads to the 2025 fleet size goal of 171 Rafales in service (129 air force + 42 navy)

- Of these 180 orders, 152 were delivered by 2017 (106 air force + 46 navy), leading to an actual fleet size of 143 Rafales (102 air force + 41 navy)

- The disposal of 24 used Rafales to Greece & Croatia was timed to reduce the impact on fleet size as the disposals were offset by deliveries of the remaining 28 aircraft (of 180 ordered)
2021: -6 disposals
2022: +1 delivery
2023: +13 deliveries, -10 disposals, net +3
2024: +13 deliveries, -4 disposals, net +9
2025: +1 delivery (likely M47 for the navy), -4 disposals, net -3

- With the addition of 12 new orders to replace the Greek aircraft (to be delivered from early 2025 to Jan 2026), this brings total orders to 192 and the target early-2026 fleet size to 159 Rafales (117 air force + 42 navy), which is 12 short of the original target

- Finally, with the last 42 ordered in Tranche 5 (30 originally to replace the Mirage 2000-5s + 12 to replace the Croatian aircraft), to be delivered from 2027-30, this brings total orders to 234 and the target 2030 fleet size to 201 Rafales (159 air force + 42 navy)

- Since the force structure goal is 225 fighters (185 air force + 40 navy), this leaves a gap of 26 Rafales for the air force (+ any future attrition) so a future Tranche 6 of ~30 aircraft will need to be ordered for delivery from 2031-35. These will effectively replace the last 55 Mirage 2000Ds.