Shenyang / Chengdu "6th Gen" Aircraft - News and Analysis

[NMaude]

When the new secretary of the Air Force take his fonctions ?

Um, wut?

 

[dark sidius]

Um, wut?

The new secretary of the Air Force ? wen he will be confirm ?

 

[Tomboy]

Oh, right.

The Chengdu plane we've seen photos of showing a 36011 buzz number on the inlet. So calling it the J-36 in the generic or Article 36011 in the specific is reasonable, based on prior examples from the PLAAF. (J10, J20, FC31, J35)

Have we seen any equivalent photos of the Shenyang plane? Anything saying 50011 or whatever?

Shenyang plane would likely just be 5000X if it indeed is going to be called J-50, since rumors place it behind Chengdu's progress. Chinese prototype numbers starts at XX001

 

[Scott Kenny]

no the term J-50 is made by fanboys and the reasoning I believe is to skip the 40 series as 4 sounds like the word for death in Chinese and is unlucky

Yeah, I knew that. And they count "40" as "4 tens".

When the new secretary of the Air Force take his fonctions ?

He's got to be confirmed by the Senate first. So whenever that happens, hearings and then a vote.

Shenyang plane would likely just be 5000X if it indeed is going to be called J-50, since rumors place it behind Chengdu's progress. Chinese prototype numbers starts at XX001

There's apparently been a change in how they number things, so it'd likely be XX011. XX01 for first design variation (or prototype/EMD), last digit as serial number inside that variation (So 36011 is the 1st serial of 1st variation of type 36).

 

[Tomboy]

There's apparently been a change in how they number things, so it'd likely be XX011. XX01 for first design variation (or prototype/EMD), last digit as serial number inside that variation (So 36011 is the 1st serial of 1st variation of type 36).

There has been no such evidence so far, every prototypes follows serials starting from 01 from the J-10 1001 onward to J-16, J-11D, J-20, Y-20, Z-20 and even more recent J-35s. The change in how they number thing is very speculative and is mostly based on "No way the Chinese progressed this fast, this have to be the first prototype"

 

[Scott Kenny]

There has been no such evidence so far, every prototypes follows serials starting from 01 from the J-10 1001 onward to J-16, J-11D, J-20, Y-20, Z-20 and even more recent J-35s. The change in how they number thing is very speculative and is mostly based on "No way the Chinese progressed this fast, this have to be the first prototype"

There's also no evidence (satellite photos etc) of the other 10 airframes that would exist if 36011 was the 11th airframe.

 

[minimes]

These views don't align with the current realities that come with the advent of drones, as you can now have complete air supremacy & still be annihilated by these gnats. Look at Israel - they had total command of the skies from the traditional standpoint over Hezbollah right from the jump & yet only managed to take, ummm, one border village in Lebanon after a month of combat, with fpv drones also inflicting damage in Gaza. Until someone finds a way to completely nullify drones, future wars will likely never be conducted as they evidently still are in these simulations.

1st, Hezbollah is a bad example. Israel never intend a full scale invasion more like bluffing.
2nd, Russia lack precision attack ability serious undermined the significance of air supremacy.
What happen when your enemy has air supremacy and good precision attack ability?
The modern war is system vs system, now with drones part the system, the cost of winning the war is much higher than before.
It doesn't mean air supremacy is obsolete.

 

[Tomboy]

There's also no evidence (satellite photos etc) of the other 10 airframes that would exist if 36011 was the 11th airframe.

011 doesn't mean the 11th airframe, it means the first prototype of the second variation of J-36. Think of it as a pre-LRIP prototype. For example, J-20 had only 3 airframes in the ＂0＂ series 2001, 2002 and 2003, 2002 was later renumbered 2004 after some modifications and 2003 was a non flying static testframe. Then came in the J-20 2011 prototype which was the first prototype of the second design revision(＂1＂), there was some major changes from the original ＂0＂ series prototypes and after 4 ＂1＂ series prototypes came the LRIP model of J-20. So you were right about the second number meaning which revision the prototype belongs in, its just that the first revision starts from 0 so 1 would actually be the second revision

Edit: At the very beginning of this thread, there was this satellite picture of a tailless plane at CAC. It is very likely that either was a flying prototype or a static test model belonging to the ＂0＂ series of prototype for J-36.

 

[Deino]

There has been no such evidence so far, every prototypes follows serials starting from 01 from the J-10 1001 onward to J-16, J-11D, J-20, Y-20, Z-20 and even more recent J-35s. The change in how they number thing is very speculative and is mostly based on "No way the Chinese progressed this fast, this have to be the first prototype"

There's also no evidence (satellite photos etc) of the other 10 airframes that would exist if 36011 was the 11th airframe.

Pardon, but it seems this is just based on a flagrant "lack of understanding"!

No-one who knows how the Chinese numbering system works would come to the idea to think there are already 11 airframe!

According to what we know from the J-10, J-15, J-15, J-16 & J-20 series, 36011 stands "most likely" for:

36 = designation aka maybe J-36
0 = just a place holder
1 = number of variant .. in fact a mystery but maybe the sub-scale demonstrator we saw on GE was 36001?
1 = number of prototype!

As such 36011 means most likely the 1st prototype of the 1st revised J-36. It as such is equal to the J-20 prototype "2011"

 

[siegecrossbow]

Maybe 36001 is a scaled demonstrator that we’ve seen on satellite photo back in 2021?

 

[Deino]

Maybe 36001 is a scaled demonstrator that we’ve seen on satellite photo back in 2021?

Exactly my point

 

[Blitzo]

Maybe 36001 is a scaled demonstrator that we’ve seen on satellite photo back in 2021?

There's no reason to think they are necessarily related -- chances are there are a half dozen scaled demonstrators out there that were developed and we only happened to get satellite imagery of one.

Also, going straight to 36011 and not having a 36001 is not too odd either.

 

[CIC-TAO]

RAeS Aerospace, just out.

View attachment 761314

 

[VTOLicious]

Here is my latest 3D guesswork in comparison to the RAeS sketch...

Length: 21,5 m
Wingspan: 22 m
Solid Body Volume: 180 m³
Intake Area (3x): 0,655 m²

Notional IWB is about 21m³, which is about 12% of total aircraft volume (180m³).

 

[SUPER=BUG]

I don't think it's going to be officially announced for at least 4 years