Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF)

I suppose now that the F-35 is in the FRP phase if the US DoD goes for multi-year procurement production contracts that should drop the unit price by a fair bit?
 
NMaude said:
I suppose now that the F-35 is in the FRP phase if the US DoD goes for multi-year procurement production contracts that should drop the unit price by a fair bit?
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Funny you say that, this was published just over a day ago.
Lockheed Martin and the F-35 Joint Program Office have reached a handshake deal on a contract for the next two production lots of the multiservice, multinational stealth fighter. The agreement, which has not yet been finalized, comes about a year later than expected, a delay which required the company to expend significant out-of-pocket funds to keep production going.

Notifications of the agreement on Lots 18 and 19 were sent to Congress on Nov. 21, but, uncharacteristically, the JPO did not publicly disclose the per-aircraft prices that will be paid for each of the three variants of the fighter. Although most previous contracts covered three lots, Lot 20 will be negotiated separately, because it could be the first under a long-planned multiyear contract.

“We have reached an initial agreement as part of ongoing negotiations for the Lot 18/19 Air Vehicle Production Contract,” the JPO and Lockheed said in joint response to a query from Air & Space Forces Magazine. “We will share the aircraft quantity and cost figures when a final agreement is signed.”

Sources said the agreement will likely cover about 300 aircraft.
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www.airandspaceforces.com

Lockheed and F-35 Program Office Have Handshake Deal on Next Two Lots

Lockheed Martin and the F-35 Joint Program Office have finally struck a deal on F-35 prices for Lots 18 and 19, which will be higher.
www.airandspaceforces.com www.airandspaceforces.com
 
That will be good news for Lockheed Martin and the F-35 program and about time too, after all the problems with the software updates early on in the year LM needs all the good news that they can get.
 
NMaude said:
Is the TR3 update on track?
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Not remotely; it is in fact the major stumbling block. The issue appears to software, not hardware, and apparently the short term solution is a truncated version of the software with a lot of capabilities literally commented out in the source code.
 
Josh_TN said:
Not remotely; it is in fact the major stumbling block. The issue appears to software, not hardware,
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My understanding is that the TR3 update refers to the hardware upgrades needed for the Block 4 software updates. If so that means Block 4 will be available as soon as the latest software upgrade has been fully debugged.
 
NMaude said:
My understanding is that the TR3 update refers to the hardware upgrades needed for the Block 4 software updates. If so that means Block 4 will be available as soon as the latest software upgrade has been fully debugged.
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The debugging appears to be the issue, not the hardware, but I am sure there are more informed posters with regards to this matter. Certainly TR3 in general is very delayed and the primary delay with regards to delivery.
 
NMaude said:
didn't the big delay cause a big backlog of undelivered F-35s accumulating at the factory?
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From the news article I posted above.

Complicating and extending negotiations on the Lot 18 and 19 prices was the yearlong hold on F-35 deliveries, which started in late summer 2023 and ended in July 2024. Aircraft were produced with the Tech Refresh 3 upgrade, but the hardware and software package has not been fully developed and tested, preventing the Defense Contract Management Agency from approving deliveries.

The JPO also withheld payments of $7 million per jet from Lockheed during the delivery hold, and the company forfeited some $60 million in award fees.

The delivery hold was lifted in July, when JPO director Lt. Gen. Michael Schmidt was satisfied that the new TR-3 software was sufficiently stable and safe to release the aircraft for delivery and operations.

At peak, an estimated 120 aircraft were stored awaiting delivery. Lockheed recently reported it is managing to deliver about 20 F-35s per month, which includes both stored and newly produced jets. A company spokesperson said a previous estimate that 75-110 F-35s would be delivered in 2024 had been raised to 90-110. Company officials have said they expect to deliver more than 156 F-35s per year starting in 2025.

Aircraft now coming off Lockheed’s Fort Worth, Texas, production line now have the Tech Refresh 3 upgrade and will soon start getting some of the more than 80 improvements planned in the Block 4 version of the jet.
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Here's an interesting video speculating about whether or not the F-35 could replace the NGAD in the air superiority role by Alex Hollings from Sandboxx:


With Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall now calling for a new air superiority fighter that rings in at below the current unit-price of the F-35, the harsh reality of the situation is that fielding the world’s first sixth-generation fighter at that price point isn’t realistically feasible. In fact, it’s barely realistic for an advanced 4th generation fighter — with jets like the F-15EX, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale, and SAAB Gripen E all ringing in at above Kendall’s target price.
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But maybe Kendall’s call for an air superiority fighter at the F-35 price point suggests a different possibility. Maybe the most affordable answer to the air superiority question is actually… The F-35 itself
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The Ground News ad is from 2:00 -3:50 if you want to skip it.
 
NMaude said:
Here's an interesting video speculating about whether or not the F-35 could replace the NGAD in the air superiority role by Alex Hollings from Sandboxx:





The Ground News ad is from 2:00 -3:50 if you want to skip it.
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What's often ignored in this context is, that no modern western combat aircraft can be as cheap as an F-35, unless it's really simplistic and incapable and/or produced in comparable quantities/annual rates. Build 48 A/C per year of any 4th gen over many years and you'll end up with lower costs than the F-35. The 55 bln development costs and massive price tag of earlier LRIP airframes, which were already build at higher rates than some 4th gens are a clear proof that only through this massive upfront investment and sheer economy of scales effect the cost could be brought down to the level it currently is.
 
Josh_TN said:
Not remotely; it is in fact the major stumbling block. The issue appears to software, not hardware, and apparently the short term solution is a truncated version of the software with a lot of capabilities literally commented out in the source code.
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See here for the last open source reporting I could find:

aerospaceglobalnews.com

Lockheed Martin delivers F-35s with truncated TR-3 software - AGN

Lockheed Martin has finally delivered F-35s equipped with the ‘truncated’ version of the problematic TR-3 upgrade.
aerospaceglobalnews.com aerospaceglobalnews.com
 
Honestly the only possible reason I see for the replacement of the F-35 is that the experimental technologies (electromechanical actuators, fuel used as working fluid, etc.) have compromised to the aircraft to an unfixable degree, meaning it will never be cheap to maintain and operate.
Barring that, just like the F-15 before, It's very likely the F-35 will stay relevant for haf a century.
 
Elysium said:
Honestly the only possible reason I see for the replacement of the F-35 is that the experimental technologies (electromechanical actuators, fuel used as working fluid, etc.) have compromised to the aircraft to an unfixable degree, meaning it will never be cheap to maintain and operate.
Barring that, just like the F-15 before, It's very likely the F-35 will stay relevant for haf a century.
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Just given the scale of procurement, the F-35 will be flying and relevant until the 2080s. When a dozen plus countries operate thousands of F-35s, they will have to be kept relevant via upgrades as needed. It's the new F-16.
 
Who knows how long the F-35 will last in active service joshjosh. I suppose that it will be whoever is in charge of western air forces at that time will make the final decision, but 2070-2080 seams reasonable especially since most airforces are just starting to getting their hands on the F-35 right now.
 
joshjosh said:
Just given the scale of procurement, the F-35 will be flying and relevant until the 2080s. When a dozen plus countries operate thousands of F-35s, they will have to be kept relevant via upgrades as needed. It's the new F-16.
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That long is usually relevant for cheaper weapon systems, used by poorer countries.

Major western economies aren't in their best shape perhaps, but this is a long shot from being bad. Turning into 2030s f-5/mig-21 club is unlikely.

F-35 is mid-2010s weapon system.
Unless there's going to be another peace dividend in 2040s, it's continuous first world relevance beyond that is just not likely.
World is changing.
 
joshjosh said:
Just given the scale of procurement, the F-35 will be flying and relevant until the 2080s. When a dozen plus countries operate thousands of F-35s, they will have to be kept relevant via upgrades as needed. It's the new F-16.
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I mean OK, but the F-35 contains a number of innovative technologies that I'm not sure will ever work right (examples outlined in my post).
History is full of innovations that in practice never became better than the thing they replaced (think Space Shuttle).
It's also a telltale signs that newer designs by other countries have neved picked up these solutions.

Honestly there's very little objective info out on the F-35, with most of the discussion being dominated by fanboys and anti-fanboys.
I'm far from claiming it's a bad plane, considering the extent to which its design solutions have showed up in other planes, but we must also observe thing which weren't - the overall amount of bulges on the body of the aircraft suggest designers have simply run out of space in which to put things, forcing designers to forgo the usage of RCS-optimal flat surfaces.
The elegance of the DSI intakes is also compromised by the forced addition of the bleed-air valves needed for the cooling of the electric actuators, rather than going with hydraulic actuators like every other aircraft in existence.
Not to mention the overally chubby design forced by the carrier footprint of the aircraft and the accomodation of the lift fan.

The question is are these things bad enough to warrant a clean sheet design in the same weight class? That is hard to answer, but I hope the answer would be yes because:
  1. I like cool new stuff
  2. LM (and the US defense industry in general) badly needs internal competiton
  3. The US's design capabilities have atrophied greatly from fielding so few new aircraft, and to build them back up, you need to give generations of new designers something real to work on.
And honestly, experience has shown that new aircraft projects are not *that* expensive (compared to the cost of individual planes), and may even reach breakeven costs at low hundreds of airframes
 
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Elysium said:
I mean OK, but the F-35 contains a number of innovative technologies that I'm not sure will ever work right (examples outlined in my post).
History is full of innovations that in practice never became better than the thing they replaced (think Space Shuttle).
It's also a telltale signs that newer designs by other countries have neved picked up these solutions.
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It is sometimes too early to tell. For example, sukhoi is working on actuators as we speak(should be on production planes within next couple of years). It just didn't have resources to do it the f-35 way, 10 years ago.
 
Ainen said:
It is sometimes too early to tell. For example, sukhoi is working on actuators as we speak(should be on production planes within next couple of years). It just didn't have resources to do it the f-35 way, 10 years ago.
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The first F-35 flew in 2006, 18 years ago, I'd guess if anything could be found out about them, it was found out already. Not sure about the Sukhoi thing, can you please post a link?

Yet they keep reporting things like this:

If you write articles like this on a 18 year program, I have some doubts that it'll ever be up to snuff.
 
F-35s likely will be flying for several decades. For most countries it likely is the last manned aircraft they own. Several countries might produce a local fifth gen fighter, but I am not particularly convinced: it is an extremely expensive endeavor that does not reward small purchase numbers, in a field where completely unmanned seems very much on the horizon.

That said, it would not surprise me if the B-52 outlived the F-35…
 
Josh_TN said:
F-35s likely will be flying for several decades. For most countries it likely is the last manned aircraft they own.
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I am very much of opinion we're running ahead of ourselves here.
Mr. Musk lives in the future(which is arguably a good thing for a visionary and chief designer), but mundane now of air warfare is such that even moderate autonomy fails over and over and over.

I don't think f-35 will be last, I doubt it will be second last even. On the contrary, imho current geopolitical turbulence will ensure we'll get several more generations of manned fighters at faster pace than what we've got between 1991...2021.
 
Ainen said:
I am very much of opinion we're running ahead of ourselves here.
Mr. Musk lives in the future(which is arguably a good thing for a visionary and chief designer), but mundane now of air warfare is such that even moderate autonomy fails over and over and over.

I don't think f-35 will be last, I doubt it will be second last even. On the contrary, imho current geopolitical turbulence will ensure we'll get several more generations of manned fighters at faster pace than what we've got between 1991...2021.
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Who is going to make them? Or should I say, who is going to pay for them? Outside China and a couple efforts in western countries (half of which are doomed to fail), where are new fighters going to come from?
 
Josh_TN said:
Who is going to make them? Or should I say, who is going to pay for them? Outside China and a couple efforts in western countries (half of which are doomed to fail), where are new fighters going to come from?
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Well, all those.
Like, US clearly rushing new generation of fighters before 2030. Which is within 10 years from f-35 trio(2015...18), and I am very doubtful it will be the end of US fighter development. New technologies and approaching are emerging again and again - if it's too costly to make "dream 5 ngad" by 2030 - those technologies won't magically disappear (certainly not for China). They'll come, simply - later.
I am also quite sceptical that these developments will be ignored by the market, too.

China apparently plans to roll new "wave" of aircraft every 5(!) years or so, and is certainly emerging as a tech powerhouse to roll the pace for you, even if you're not willing to.

If Russia will get su-75 flying, again, it amounts to new fighter within 10 just years from the previous one. Not 50.

Is Europe slower? Yes, but it's been this way since 1950s really. It's slower because half of Europe buys American.

F-35 was meant to be the thing to end all things in the previous, stable and predictable world. That world is no more.
 
China obviously will produce things until it is completely impractical to produce them. The U.S. not so much, and I doubt other European or Asian efforts will amount to anything. Russian production is marginal even for their own needs and always will be.

The U.S. is getting cold feet on a gen 6 fighter aircraft and I cannot imagine it gets sold abroad. Who else has the money even for 5th gen? There are a half dozen attempts, but IMO only South Korea or Japan actually has the money and the need to follow through. Maybe Turkey, but I personally have doubts.
 
Josh_TN said:
China obviously will produce things until it is completely impractical to produce them. The U.S. not so much, and I doubt other European or Asian efforts will amount to anything. Russian production is marginal even for their own needs and always will be.

The U.S. is getting cold feet on a gen 6 fighter aircraft and I cannot imagine it gets sold abroad. Who else has the money even for 5th gen? There are a half dozen attempts, but IMO only South Korea or Japan actually has the money and the need to follow through. Maybe Turkey, but I personally have doubts.
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I personally expect at very least two gens of US aircraft - one we already know, another - simply because there's a need to respond to China's developments in kind, with service date maybe before 2040.

Kind reminder that PLAAF watcher community expects a demonstrator/prototype of next generation fighter (right after j-35, yes) to fly as Mr. Trump's inauguration present this Christmas.


Also, unlikely the "cheap ngad" is going to be either not exportable or not desirable to allies. I'd rather expect it to be a much sought alternative.

Russia...Russia is a mid case.
It isn't in the first league anymore, lagging behind US and China in production. At the same time, it still produces more, more modern combat aircraft than all of the western Europe combined.
 
Minor point of contention; Europe produces a couple of canard based aircraft at a larger rate than Russia.

I have no doubt the U.S. and PRC will produce new manned aircraft; I question the ability of anyone else to do so.
 
Ainen said:
On the contrary, imho current geopolitical turbulence will ensure we'll get several more generations of manned fighters at faster pace than what we've got between 1991...2021.
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I think we get a few iterations of tactical aircraft cheaper, faster to produce, and "less capable" than the F-35 in terms of "does everything", but which enable "higher capability" for the "family of systems".

And because they will be far less ambitious, yes, they can be designed, developed, and fielded far more quickly and cheaply.

Even just looking at the extremely long development time for systems integration on the F-35, shows that perhaps the "do everything" bleeding edge is an evolutionary dead end.
 
Josh_TN said:
Minor point of contention; Europe produces a couple of canard based aircraft at a larger rate than Russia.

I have no doubt the U.S. and PRC will produce new manned aircraft; I question the ability of anyone else to do so.
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Well, my rough inner expectation is that China may produce 3 such 'waves' of manned tactical aircraft by 2040, 1 per 5 years.

US - probably 2, but of >1 aircraft type. More importantly, there will finally be attractive alternatives to the f-35, which is now alone responsible for 3 fighter programs simply due to its limitations and politics.

Russia - probably 2, 1 per wave.

Europe+Japan - 1, very late in period, several aircraft. One may say two, if we stretch and count Gripen E as effectively new aircraft for 2025.

Korea - 1, very early in period (KF-21), but may try 2nd.

Others(Turkiye, India) are a question mark.
_Del_ said:
I think we get a few iterations of tactical aircraft cheaper, faster to produce, and "less capable" than the F-35 in terms of "does everything", but which enable "higher capability" for the "family of systems".
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I frankly doubt anything listed higher(including "cheap ngad") will be less capable. At most, some will be smaller, but this by no mean equals capability.
Quite a lot of things changed since the early 2000s when the JSF concept was frozen.
 
Elysium said:
Honestly the only possible reason I see for the replacement of the F-35 is that the experimental technologies (electromechanical actuators, fuel used as working fluid, etc.) have compromised to the aircraft to an unfixable degree, meaning it will never be cheap to maintain and operate.
Barring that, just like the F-15 before, It's very likely the F-35 will stay relevant for haf a century.
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I’m not sure what you mean about using fuel as a working fluid as being experimental.

Many aircraft use fuel as a cooling medium, discarding/using the waste heat in the engine burn flow. And engines have been using fueldraulic actuation systems since at least the J58 on the A-12/SR-71.
 
Ainen said:
Well, my rough inner expectation is that China may produce 3 such 'waves' of manned tactical aircraft by 2040, 1 per 5 years.

US - probably 2, but of >1 aircraft type. More importantly, there will finally be attractive alternatives to the f-35, which is now alone responsible for 3 fighter programs simply due to its limitations and politics.

Russia - probably 2, 1 per wave.

Europe+Japan - 1, very late in period, several aircraft. One may say two, if we stretch and count Gripen E as effectively new aircraft for 2025.

Korea - 1, very early in period (KF-21), but may try 2nd.

Others(Turkiye, India) are a question mark.

I frankly doubt anything listed higher(including "cheap ngad") will be less capable. At most, some will be smaller, but this by no mean equals capability.
Quite a lot of things changed since the early 2000s when the JSF concept was frozen.
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A lot of countries have fighter aircraft programs. I question how many actually get produced and I doubt any of them get exported.
 

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