Ukrainian Patriot SAM operational/technical discussions

[flateric]

Also, it assumes those decoys actually work; based on previous intercepts, I have my doubts on how effective those decoys actually are. Why did Russia just imprison 3 of its "hypersonic scientists" for treason, if they work so well?

What a brilliant logical construction I say.
I wonder if you actually read the article you gave link to and understand what those people research area was and how far it from decoys, apart of the essence of the charges.

 

[Foo Fighter]

Considering the arrests for fraud and theft of state property, I would suggest the arrests are more likely linked with this rather than shortcomings in decoys etc.
Simplest option is usually the best.

 

[activeaero]

And on what basis are you linking these arrested people to decoy development? There is nothing whatsoever to suggest a connection in the article, and in any case (as you say yourself) the charge is presented as being treason, rather than incompetence. You're jumping to conclusions all over the place.

What a brilliant logical construction I say.
I wonder if you actually read the article you gave link to and understand what those people research area was and how far it from decoys, apart of the essence of the charges.

I guess I could've worded that a little better. I wasn't talking about the scientists being responsible for the decoys only - hence me calling them "hypersonic scientists". There's not enough Vodka in Russia to make me believe that those arrests have nothing to do with recent intercepts of the Kinzhal. Just like those responsible for the design of the S-400 getting arrested. Putin was told the Kinzhal was unstoppable, which turned out to be completely false. Heck, those scientists may have even faked tests, like they did during the USSRs time. Remember the diesel subs they would shadow their boomers with, launching the SLBMs from them, as the nuke boomers were unable to fire the missiles? All I'm saying is: based on USSR/Russia history, and their willingness to lie about their equipment's capabilities, I don't for one minute believe it's a coincidence that those "hypersonic scientists" are just now being rounded up and arrested. Also, the decoys clearly don't work based on previous intercepts of Iskander, and Kinzhal missiles. They're also FULL of US electronics. Sorry for any confusion. I've enjoyed your posts over the years, flateric!

 

[TomS]

I guess I could've worded that a little better. I wasn't talking about the scientists being responsible for the decoys only - hence me calling them "hypersonic scientists". There's not enough Vodka in Russia to make me believe that those arrests have nothing to do with recent intercepts of the Kinzhal. Just like those responsible for the design of the S-400 getting arrested. Putin was told the Kinzhal was unstoppable, which turned out to be completely false. Heck, those scientists may have even faked tests, like they did during the USSRs time. Remember the diesel subs they would shadow their boomers with, launching the SLBMs from them, as the nuke boomers were unable to fire the missiles? All I'm saying is: based on USSR/Russia history, and their willingness to lie about their equipment's capabilities, I don't for one minute believe it's a coincidence that those "hypersonic scientists" are just now being rounded up and arrested. Also, the decoys clearly don't work based on previous intercepts of Iskander, and Kinzhal missiles. They're also FULL of US electronics. Sorry for any confusion. I've enjoyed your posts over the years, flateric!

Look at the timings.

One of these scientists, Anatoly Maslov, was arrested in June 2022. Another, Dmitry Kolker, was arrested in July 2022 and died almost immediately due to pancreatic cancer. Alexandr Shiplyuk was arrested in August 2022. Only one, Valery Zvegintsev, was recently arrested, in April 2023.

All of these cases are getting publicity now because another group of scientists have written an open letter criticizing the arrests. But whatever is motivating the arrests has been going on for almost a year.

 

[Forest Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1658897281796505603

 

[Forest Green]

There are 6 false targets in each Dagger, for a total of 7 targets. Two Daggers - 14 targets. Plus, 2 - 4 X-101s arrived without a warhead. To defeat subsonic air targets with a 75% probability, 2 missiles are required for each target. And it's better to run away from a hypersonic missile right away. So it turns out 32 anti-aircraft missiles

That is assuming Russia was able to steal enough Western electronics to make the needed decoys. Also, it assumes those decoys actually work; based on previous intercepts, I have my doubts on how effective those decoys actually are.

It's also assuming that 6 is divisible by 7, which it isn't.

 

[flateric]

the article you gave link to and understand what those people research area was and how far it from decoys, apart of the essence of the charges.

I guess I could've worded that a little better. I wasn't talking about the scientists being responsible for the decoys only - hence me calling them "hypersonic scientists". There's not enough Vodka in Russia to make me believe that those arrests have nothing to do with recent intercepts of the Kinzhal. Just like those responsible for the design of the S-400 getting arrested.

You should read the article, finally. And no one "responsible for S-400 design" was arrested, ever. Even more https://fedpress.ru/news/77/society/3059642

 

[flateric]

Considering the arrests for fraud and theft of state property, I would suggest the arrests are more likely linked with this rather than shortcomings in decoys etc.
Simplest option is usually the best.

TsAGI, TsNIIMASH, ITAM arrests officialy linked to crossing cooperation lines (usually well paid or based on personal ego) with our best strategic partners like China and now Iran (last case) - Gowadia way of things. One must think that if hypersoniсs became one of favourite Putin's toy, FSB should have concrete hard evidences to report up and get arrest warranties for people who involved in hypersonic weapons science.

 

[MihoshiK]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1658897281796505603

The engineers at Raytheon must be pissing their pants like excited puppies right now, with all that juicy battle data coming in from that battery.

Ain't no testing like live fire testing, and it looks like Patriot got one hell of a workout... And passed.

 

[Firefinder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1658897281796505603

The engineers at Raytheon must be pissing their pants like excited puppies right now, with all that juicy battle data coming in from that battery.

Ain't no testing like live fire testing, and it looks like Patriot got one hell of a workout... And passed.

Pretty this is the first time a modern design Aerial defense got tested against with multiple weapon types in a multi vector time on target attack.

Like we got the Kinzhal, the Kaliber, the Drones...

This engagement will be effecting all Western SAM designs for Decades to come.

 

[sferrin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1658897281796505603

The engineers at Raytheon must be pissing their pants like excited puppies right now, with all that juicy battle data coming in from that battery.

Ain't no testing like live fire testing, and it looks like Patriot got one hell of a workout... And passed.

Pretty this is the first time a modern design Aerial defense got tested against with multiple weapon types in a multi vector time on target attack.

Like we got the Kinzhal, the Kaliber, the Drones...

This engagement will be effecting all Western SAM designs for Decades to come.

Consider that the drive for China and Russia to pursue hypersonic weapons (non-ballistic missiles) was stuff like SM-3, THAAD, and GBI. . .and they weren't even involved here. Would be interesting to see if they try to modify things like Sizzler and Yakhont for terrain following land attack.

 

[NMaude]

In regards to the PAC-3 missile wreckage with there being large fragments, well, that doesn't surprise me at all as unlike the PAC-2 the PAC-3 doesn't have a large blast/fragmentation warhead since instead as it's a "Hittle" it only has a small kill enhancement device, to quote from the PAC-3 wiki article:

The active radar gives the warhead a "hit-to-kill" (kinetic kill vehicle) capability that completely eliminates the need for a traditional proximity-fused warhead. The missile still has a small explosive warhead, called Lethality Enhancer, a warhead which launches 24 low-speed tungsten fragments in radial direction to make the missile cross-section greater and enhance the kill probability. This greatly increases the lethality against ballistic missiles of all types.[31]

 

[HyFonic]

"Defense officials and congressional staffers told CNN that Ukrainian troops have in recent weeks used the US-made Patriot air defense system to shoot down at least one faraway Russian fighter jet."
"The Russian planes the Patriot targeted were on a bombing run to fire missiles against Ukrainian targets, US officials said, which Russia has been doing throughout the past year to maximize civilian casualties."

Sounds like the 4 aircraft that got downed over Bryansk were most likely patriot kills.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine

 

[sferrin]

In regards to the PAC-3 missile wreckage with there being large fragments, well, that doesn't surprise me at all as unlike the PAC-2 the PAC-3 doesn't have a large blast/fragmentation warhead since instead as it's a "Hittle" it only has a small kill enhancement device, to quote from the PAC-3 wiki article:

The active radar gives the warhead a "hit-to-kill" (kinetic kill vehicle) capability that completely eliminates the need for a traditional proximity-fused warhead. The missile still has a small explosive warhead, called Lethality Enhancer, a warhead which launches 24 low-speed tungsten fragments in radial direction to make the missile cross-section greater and enhance the kill probability. This greatly increases the lethality against ballistic missiles of all types.[31]

No way is this much of a PAC-3 going to survive an impact intact:

 

[NMaude]

No way is this much of a PAC-3 going to survive an impact intact:

I'd agree with you if it was a direct impact however if it was a near-miss with the PAC-3's proximity-fuse firing its' small lethality enhancement device then there'd be more substantial wreckage leftover.

 

[bring_it_on]

No way is this much of a PAC-3 going to survive an impact intact:

Depending on the type of missile being engaged, and shot doctrine, the missile could terminate engagement if another completed the intercept.

 

[Forest Green]

That one is likely a failed launch. My guess is that the launcher was pretty hot after launching 15 missiles in a very short space of time and the heat caused the last missile to fail on launch by compromising the body.

 

[NMaude]

the heat caused the last missile to fail on launch by compromising the body.

Wouldn't the PAC-3's design take this factor into account?

 

[Forest Green]

Wouldn't the PAC-3's design take this factor into account?

It wouldn't surprise me if they never launched all 16 missiles in the space of 2 minutes in testing. Of course it could equally just have been a dud.

 

[Firefinder]

Eyeah this is the type of deal that both the Military and Manufacturers plan in alot of extra and hope for the best.


Cause going full hog rapid fire testing like that is FUCKING EXPANSIVE.

With more then a few beancounters not seeing the point. So getting the money rarely happens, or get cut at the last second.

And this will not be the first time that Design Specs does not keeping up with real life battle conditions in this war.

Or in General.

Know that the US found that their "modern" 5 inch gun in the Mk42 could not keep up the amount or rate of fire that the WW2 era 5/38 could in Vietnam.

Similar has Happened with the PZH2000, M777, and seversl other new pieces of kit to various levels. Like apperantly the collateral damage reduction measures that the US has input on their stuff from GWOT have been backfiring in someways in Ukraine by not having enough kill for the targets.

This is way you need to be ready to adjust and refine everything during war.

Cause Peacetime testing will rarely be enough.

 

[Josh_TN]

That one is likely a failed launch. My guess is that the launcher was pretty hot after launching 15 missiles in a very short space of time and the heat caused the last missile to fail on launch by compromising the body.

On top of that the US probably donated the oldest missiles it had, which is going to up the failure rate.

 

[NMaude]

the missile could terminate engagement if another completed the intercept.

I hadn't thought of that as it's a good point.

 

[paralay]

Anatomy of MIM-104 Patriot Destruction + Primer on Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile​

Anatomy of MIM-104 Patriot Destruction + Primer on Kh-47M2 Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile

Let’s break down in depth exactly what happened on the night of the Patriot attack and catch up on the known facts and speculations.

simplicius76.substack.com

 

[sferrin]

That's some serious copium.

 

[publiusr]

--

That leaving out the fact that drone to carry such a weapon be so big in one of most Heaviest AA Populated zones since Vietnam War that it survival be measure in minutes.

People have tried all kinds of things in wartime---standardization is the first thing that goes out the widow---making things tough for scholars.

 

[Forest Green]

Anatomy of MIM-104 Patriot Destruction + Primer on Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile​

Anatomy of MIM-104 Patriot Destruction + Primer on Kh-47M2 Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile

Let’s break down in depth exactly what happened on the night of the Patriot attack and catch up on the known facts and speculations.

simplicius76.substack.com

Several comments.

1. If you wanted to take out a SAM battery, so would aim for the radar. It's the most expensive and most fragile piece, and without it the rest of the battery is furniture.

2. If Russia had destroyed a battery, it would at least be able to post satellite images of said battery, or craters on the airfield. I mean when Ukraine destroyed stuff on Russian airfields, NATO was able to provide satellite images of it. So the absence thereof is the best answer to the question.

 

[paralay]

Right now strikes are being carried out on Kiev, this is the best confirmation

 

[Archibald]

Right now strikes are being carried out on Kiev, this is the best confirmation

... that all Russian missiles will be shot down.

Sure, we can readily agree on that.

 

[bring_it_on]

Right now strikes are being carried out on Kiev, this is the best confirmation

Is this a joke?

 

[Forest Green]

Right now strikes are being carried out on Kiev, this is the best confirmation

Nope, last activity was drones 16 hours ago.

Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...

liveuamap.com

Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 Shahed drones and 1 reconnaissance Merlin-VR drone Kyiv, Kyiv city - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 Shahed drones and 1 reconnaissance Merlin-VR drone. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues...

liveuamap.com

Confirmation would have been satellite imagery, as has been provided to back up the claims of the other side in the past. Simple as that. Without that, the only simple conclusion is that it didn't happen.

 

[Forest Green]

Right now strikes are being carried out on Kiev, this is the best confirmation

Still no explosions in Kyiv. So that confirms that you're wrong right?

 

[Topi]

Anatomy of MIM-104 Patriot Destruction + Primer on Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile​

Anatomy of MIM-104 Patriot Destruction + Primer on Kh-47M2 Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile

Let’s break down in depth exactly what happened on the night of the Patriot attack and catch up on the known facts and speculations.

simplicius76.substack.com

One could indeed say that "Patriots" are destroyed by Kinžals if the PAC-3 interceptor missiles are to be called with the same name as the system, as they often are in popular parlance. A PAC-3 CRI missile is inevitably destroyed when it hits a Kinžal, after all.

 

[MihoshiK]

That's some serious copium.

The Czar's Imperial Reserve, I think.

 

[Forest Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660795164783419392

View: https://twitter.com/AirPowerNEW1/status/1660795164783419392?s=20

 

[Josh_TN]

The mention of capacity implies multiple packing. PAC3 appears to have the same diameter as ESSM, sans fins. Are they selling it as a quad pack solution?

 

[TomS]

The mention of capacity implies multiple packing. PAC3 appears to have the same diameter as ESSM, sans fins. Are they selling it as a quad pack solution?

Nope. MSE has a fatter booster, out to 12 inches, so it won't quadpack in Mk 41. Maybe in Mk57 or whatever they field in DDG(X) but they've been showing single rounds in Mk41 now.

Lockheed Martin's Aegis Patriot PAC-3 MSE Update - Naval News

Naval News caught up with Lockheed Martin on their Aegis Patriot PAC-3 MSE integration project at Sea Airspace 2023.

www.navalnews.com

 

[sferrin]

The mention of capacity implies multiple packing. PAC3 appears to have the same diameter as ESSM, sans fins. Are they selling it as a quad pack solution?

Nope. MSE has a fatter booster, out to 12 inches, so it won't quadpack in Mk 41. Maybe in Mk57 or whatever they field in DDG(X) but they've been showing single rounds in Mk41 now.

Lockheed Martin's Aegis Patriot PAC-3 MSE Update - Naval News

Naval News caught up with Lockheed Martin on their Aegis Patriot PAC-3 MSE integration project at Sea Airspace 2023.

www.navalnews.com

You could probably 2-pack it if you really wanted to.

 

[Josh_TN]

The mention of capacity implies multiple packing. PAC3 appears to have the same diameter as ESSM, sans fins. Are they selling it as a quad pack solution?

Nope. MSE has a fatter booster, out to 12 inches, so it won't quadpack in Mk 41. Maybe in Mk57 or whatever they field in DDG(X) but they've been showing single rounds in Mk41 now.

Lockheed Martin's Aegis Patriot PAC-3 MSE Update - Naval News

Naval News caught up with Lockheed Martin on their Aegis Patriot PAC-3 MSE integration project at Sea Airspace 2023.

www.navalnews.com

What is the advantage then over SM-6? Cost? Divert ability?

 

[TomS]

What is the advantage then over SM-6? Cost? Divert ability?

Hit-to-kill capability at least. Possibly better kinematics.

And maybe future multi-pack. LM has said they can fit two per Mk41 cell if they redesign MSE, but for the moment prefer to have a common missile. That could change if it's funded under this new Navy program. LM are also talking about a larger VLS for DDG(X) that might allow a quadpack.

I think MSE and SM-6 are in the same ballpark, cost-wise.

 

[bring_it_on]

The mention of capacity implies multiple packing. PAC3 appears to have the same diameter as ESSM, sans fins. Are they selling it as a quad pack solution?

Nope. MSE has a fatter booster, out to 12 inches, so it won't quadpack in Mk 41. Maybe in Mk57 or whatever they field in DDG(X) but they've been showing single rounds in Mk41 now.

Lockheed Martin's Aegis Patriot PAC-3 MSE Update - Naval News

Naval News caught up with Lockheed Martin on their Aegis Patriot PAC-3 MSE integration project at Sea Airspace 2023.

www.navalnews.com

What is the advantage then over SM-6? Cost? Divert ability?

Its more agile and probably better at intercepting highly maneuverable threats given its endgame performance. Plus it shares production with Army so will lower overall acquisition cost if chosen.