I don't really buy the escalation threat. Putin just keeps threatening it to protect his presidency and hence himself. And I think if Putin keeps advancing west NATO involvement will happen eventually anyway.
The Kremlin doesn’t unduly worry me. Putin should be well aware that he can’t count on a conventional “flexible response” to any direct attack on NATO. An immediate full on strategic response is more likely now than during the Cold War or any other point in history. Putin isn’t going to be dealing with the slow cognitive decline of Reagan or the relative emotional stability of a Nixon or the comparative “intelligence” of George W. Bush. For Putin, it really doesn’t matter who gets elected or re-elected to the Oval Office. He should fear both of them.
I would generally assume a continuation of the status quo, with no pressing need for direct intervention from NATO territory. The ongoing war has started to mirror the Iran-Iraq War, with the no real existential threat to either side but it continues because of mutual intransigence. There’s nothing left to be won or lost, except the lives of the participants. I don’t see any chance of a Brusilov Offensive or an Operation Bagration. The other side isn’t going on to march on Moscow like Piłsudski or even Denikin.
The difference is that I expect the Russians to realize that their materiel losses at the current level of conflict are unsustainable, and start rolling out the strategic bombers (for their big jammers if nothing else) and significantly more troops.
Like when they said they weren't going to invade Ukraine? Or when they said they didn't have troops in the Donbass from 2014-2022? Or when they said ATACMS was a red line, or fighter jets, or tanks for that matter? Or when they signed a treaty guaranteeing the sovereignty of Ukraine perhaps? It's more a case that one should take their words, invert them, and then listen.
I don’t think either side has the logistics, leadership or ideological motivation to get 2,000 tanks operable and operational at same time, in the same place. Zhukov was working with tremendous organizational advantages in WWII compared to today. The societal decay on both sides isn’t quite so obvious when it comes to operating systems like Patriot missile batteries. However, for something requiring coordination liked massed armor or coherent efforts at SEAD or air superiority, there is no fundamental capability on either side.
The Air Force Chief of Staff who wasn't a good enough pilot to be accepted to fly one...
Really smart move on their part.
Or the 18th-century-style imperial annexation of other countries line of thinking.
www.france24.com
It was a children's hospital and someone has offered an interesting perspective on that.
