Ukrainian Patriot SAM operational/technical discussions

[sferrin]

CNN confirming a battery was 'potentially damaged'. No clue as to how extensively.

Piece also says Ukraine only currently has two (2) Patriot systems, one donated by the US and one by Germany AND The Netherlands. Is that right?

View attachment 699785

The same "likely damaged" comment we've been hearing all day. Doesn't sound like anybody knows anything.

 

[activeaero]

Excellent! Yes, I think that's it. Main action starts around 3:00am, ground explosions at around 3:07am.

I'd missed the second large explosion when I watched it before. And there's a bunch more SAM activity just beforehand as well!

Thank you.

No problem. Here is one of the ground explosion, and what sounds like a Gepard doing work: https://files.catbox.moe/0g2tr8.webm

 

[publiusr]

Here is what may have happened. Fire missiles, then when Patriot gives its position away-drone it? Could a small drone carry an air-to-air missile to go up a Patriot's tailpipe? A drone sapper might be in a Ukraine uniform disguised as an RC fan....wandering the outskirts.

 

[paralay]

I’ve no idea what was shooting at or how successful it was, but I’m sure analysis of the engagement is going to be studied for years. So yes only to the invaluable info part.

How much does this lesson cost? $150 million?

 

[Forest Green]

For Russia it may well have cost that much. And at the end of the day, power remained on in Kyiv. So the attack was unsuccessful.

Patriots cost $4m for PAC-3 MSE and half that for PAC-2. Huge Kinzhals >$10m.

 

[Ainen]

And at the end of the day, power remained on in Kyiv.

As far as we can see, no one has even attacked power plants since the end of the cold season; supplies and equipment, SAM sites, command posts, and barracks are the targets since the beginning of the spring summer offensive preparations. This is a self-declared win on self-declared conditions.

And since we don't know the actual scale of attack or the aims, we can't say yet.
Maybe it was a relatively small attack, intended to show that the new SAM umbrella isn't exactly a reason to play bold.

 

[Arjen]

Piece also says Ukraine only currently has two (2) Patriot systems, one donated by the US and one by Germany AND The Netherlands. Is that right?

Correct. In January, the Dutch MoD announced it would be delivering parts of a Patriot battery to Ukraine - two launchers and an unspecified number of missiles:

Nederlandse levering Patriot-luchtverdediging aan Oekraïne

Nederland levert Oekraïne delen van een Patriot-luchtverdedigingswapensysteem. Het gaat om 2 lanceerinstallaties en raketten. Ook neemt Nederland trainingen van Oekraïense militairen voor haar rekening. Verder levert Nederland 100 in Tsjechië commercieel ingekochte voertuigen met...

www.defensie.nl

As I understand it, the German MoD and Dutch MoD cooperated to deliver a complete Patriot battery.

Nederland levert Oekraïne delen van een Patriot-luchtverdedigingswapensysteem. Het gaat om 2 lanceerinstallaties en raketten.

The Netherlands is supplying Ukraine with parts of a Patriot air defense weapon system. It concerns 2 launchers and missiles.

 

[jeffb]

Excellent! Yes, I think that's it. Main action starts around 3:00am, ground explosions at around 3:07am.

I'd missed the second large explosion when I watched it before. And there's a bunch more SAM activity just beforehand as well!

Thank you.

No problem. Here is one of the ground explosion, and what sounds like a Gepard doing work: https://files.catbox.moe/0g2tr8.webm

Nice, they're synced up. I do wish they wouldn't stick their bloody logos right in the center of frame though!

It's interesting that many people are only linking the video with a single explosion on the end, there are actually two large distinct 'hits'.

 

[Firefinder]

Here is what may have happened. Fire missiles, then when Patriot gives its position away-drone it? Could a small drone carry an air-to-air missile to go up a Patriot's tailpipe? A drone sapper might be in a Ukraine uniform disguised as an RC fan....wandering the outskirts.

It could.

But we are seeing tge Patriot set up as it was originally design for.

One layer of a networked system.

Patriot guarding from medium to high attitude. It can do low but its not designed for.

So a low flying drone will hit it as seen by the Saudis experience.

But...

Ukraine has alot of other systems to cover for that weakness.

IRST is all but design for that work and been doing that extremely well.

And it sounds like they have several AA Guns like the Gerald and likely several old Soviet AA as well.

Which also been soon to be good at murdering drones.

Plus Manpads for everyone.

Meaning that this is a very VERY dense set up that likely networked together the best they can meaning that will not be easy to punch through.

This was how the Patriot was design to work.

We just never had the low part till recently.

Also I eat a five day old crusty gym sock if Ukraine has not set out rules stating that no none military drones can be in the Air anywhere near Kiyv and any unidentified drone will be shot down at the owner expense.

And the owner arrested if found.

Cause there are some games you dont play.

And trying to play cute civilian flying drones near a High Value Asset of country who at war for survival is one of the fastest way to get a jackboot to the face.

Even in peacetime that a quick way to get a bunch of pissed of suits at you door asking "WTF are you thinking" for every country that has a decent military.

Edit: Wow Im not only slow today but apparently cannot comprehend my reading. Might be cause the idea is one of the Stupidest that Ive heard for a while.

Let me get this straight.

You want someone, not only dress up as a Ukrainian soldier but acting as one in country-

Which Im 99 percent sure is a warcrime.

But have a drone big enough to carry an A2A missile to shot down the Patriot missile...
...

Leaving out both the Logistical and Legality issues of this. Which there are many before adding in the above.

The missile you need to catch up with a Patriot at range is basically a Pheonix size one specifically design for such a task.

Which no one has.

Cause the odds of it working is so slim its not worth the cost.

That leaving out the fact that drone to carry such a weapon be so big in one of most Heaviest AA Populated zones since Vietnam War that it survival be measure in minutes.

 

[Josh_TN]

I’ve no idea what was shooting at or how successful it was, but I’m sure analysis of the engagement is going to be studied for years. So yes only to the invaluable info part.

How much does this lesson cost? $150 million?

Probably that much in expended PAC3 ammunition alone.

 

[bring_it_on]

For Russia it may well have cost that much. And at the end of the day, power remained on in Kyiv. So the attack was unsuccessful.

Patriots cost $4m for PAC-3 MSE and half that for PAC-2. Huge Kinzhals >$10m.

It appears they had the PAC-3 and used it. The CRI came off the line at roughly $2 MM a pop. PAC-2 were about 50% cheaper.

 

[Firefinder]

For Russia it may well have cost that much. And at the end of the day, power remained on in Kyiv. So the attack was unsuccessful.

Patriots cost $4m for PAC-3 MSE and half that for PAC-2. Huge Kinzhals >$10m.

It appears they had the PAC-3 and used it. The CRI came off the line at roughly $2 MM a pop. PAC-2 were about 50% cheaper.

Also depends on how the engagement went.

Cause Russia only admitts to 6 Kinzhals, which likely got the PAC3s.

But they also set several Kaliber cruise missiles and drones that they sent in a solid multi vector time on target attack.

Which is exactly what you want to do when attacking a system like the Patriot.

With those cruise missile and drones, the Pac2s are more then good enough for.

And the Radar is noted to be able to distinguish what the targets are.

So in all likelihood we just saw usage of multiple types of missiles.

 

[Ainen]

Cause Russia only admitts to 6 Kinzhals, which likely got the PAC3s.

they never said 6. In fact Russian DM specifically said 'less'("(...)We launch 3 times less they claim as they intercept. They're also mistaken about the type of the missile(...)"), though it isn't verifiable.

 

[Forest Green]

As far as we can see, no one has even attacked power plants since the end of the cold season; supplies and equipment, SAM sites, command posts, and barracks are the targets since the beginning of the spring summer offensive preparations. This is a self-declared win on self-declared conditions.

And since we don't know the actual scale of attack or the aims, we can't say yet.
Maybe it was a relatively small attack, intended to show that the new SAM umbrella isn't exactly a reason to play bold.

Well clearly it failed. I mean, a launcher damaged but still operational, that doesn't sound like the work of any 500kg warhead I know. No huge secondaries, so no ammunition hit and no collection of SAMs exploded.

Exact costs are unknown but it's a 318kg interceptor against a 4,300kg aero-ballistic missile with a nose radar, that requires a large interceptor jet that's been converted to only use that weapon just to launch it and has suffered 4 write-offs in the last 12 months. And against a background of 4 expensive fighter jets and EW helicopters being destroyed very recently.

they never said 6. In fact Russian DM specifically said 'less'("(...)We launch 3 times less they claim as they intercept. They're also mistaken about the type of the missile(...)"), though it isn't verifiable.

Yeah but dude, remember when the Moskva had suffered an ammunition fire, and then wasn't sunk, and then was, and it wasn't the result of a Ukrainian strike, but then Russia launched a huge retaliatory salvo at Ukrainian cities.... or when that Wagner barracks hadn't been blown up but then had....

Also depends on how the engagement went.

Cause Russia only admitts to 6 Kinzhals, which likely got the PAC3s.

6 Kinzhals, 3 Iskanders, 9 Kalibrs/Kh-101s and a bunch of drones. The Iskanders could have been loaded with cluster munitions which fell after the missile as struck, or the very limited damage could have been the result of falling debris, or the errant PAC-3 that failed on launch due to the launcher being hot from the previous 15 launches. Like I said above, a damaged but still operational launcher is not the result of a successful 500kg warhead strike.

It appears they had the PAC-3 and used it. The CRI came off the line at roughly $2 MM a pop. PAC-2 were about 50% cheaper.

They only have 2 Patriot batteries total AFAIK, and we know at least one is PAC-2 GEM-T. What combination was used that night is unknown.

Out of interest, is it the PAC-3 MSE or just the legacy PAC-3s that they're replacing anyway?

 

[Forest Green]

The same "likely damaged" comment we've been hearing all day. Doesn't sound like anybody knows anything.

'Potential damaged' isn't the usual result of a 500kg warhead strike at any rate.

 

[Forest Green]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html

US officials say damage to Patriot missile defense system was minimal following Russian attack near Kyiv

 

[paralay]

There are 6 false targets in each Dagger, for a total of 7 targets. Two Daggers - 14 targets. Plus, 2 - 4 X-101s arrived without a warhead. To defeat subsonic air targets with a 75% probability, 2 missiles are required for each target. And it's better to run away from a hypersonic missile right away. So it turns out 32 anti-aircraft missiles

 

[Forest Green]

US radars are unlikely to be fooled by those decoys if they're a different size and shape to the real RV, which they are. Target discrimination has been a big deal for interceptor radar R&D for decades. Amazing how they're 'unstoppable' until they get shot down, and then they're decoys anyway. And as regards X-101s with no warhead, the warhead is not the most expensive part of a terrain-following cruise missile by a long shot.

 

[sferrin]

The same "likely damaged" comment we've been hearing all day. Doesn't sound like anybody knows anything.

'Potential damaged' isn't the usual result of a 500kg warhead strike at any rate.

Still waiting for any evidence that a warhead landed intact. So far just crickets.

 

[sferrin]

Out of interest, is it the PAC-3 MSE or just the legacy PAC-3s that they're replacing anyway?

Vanilla PAC-3. Also, MSE isn't replacing it but supplementing it. MSE is more capable and more expensive but PAC-3 is good enough for some things and you can fit more on a launcher than MSE (16 vs 12).

 

[Ainen]

Well clearly it failed. I mean, a launcher damaged but still operational, that doesn't sound like the work of any 500kg warhead I know. No huge secondaries, so no ammunition hit and no collection of SAMs exploded.

Do we know that? Or it's just a desirable outcome?

Patriot is a set of 6-10 pieces of equipment, spread over a significant area. We know 'something' got hit. We probably saw at least 3 different hits.

'Patriot damaged' may mean an empty launcher hit by shrapnel. Or it may mean FC radar was destroyed. Both mean Patriot is 'damaged', as all pieces are replaceable. 'Destroying a Patiot' means destroying all the equipment, which means either several cluster warheads (which don't necessarily produce permanent damage) or just hitting every piece, including empty launchers, with one warhead per piece.
But losing radar/ecs de facto means losing the battery. Losing ECS, in addition, often means losing the operators.

If anything - begrudgingly accepting that 'Patriot is damaged' probably means that it was indeed a Radar/ECS damage of some sort.
Undeniable damage happened.

Yeah but dude, remember when the Moskva had suffered an ammunition fire, and then wasn't sunk, and then was, and it wasn't the result of a Ukrainian strike, but then Russia launched a huge retaliatory salvo at Ukrainian cities.... or when that Wagner barracks hadn't been blown up but then had....

"All fair in love and war." You can't deny warring parties their right to lie when something is shameful.
Both do as much as they can, creating two opposite information bulbs; sides tend to admit visible losses only when something is just pointless to deny. Like Moskva.

 

[Moose]

Edit: two different missiles fell out of a launcher and remained fairly intact? What happened there?

Maybe a TEL launcher took a hit that scattered it’s contents?

TEL hits look a certain way, this isn't what the aftermath looks like.

So what does this look like? And are you referring to the parts of a PAC-3 layout on the street or something else?

Hitting a loaded TEL hard enough to breach the box doesn't cause it to "scatter it's contents." Missiles will either cook off or just burn down in place.

 

[Josh_TN]

US radars are unlikely to be fooled by those decoys if they're a different size and shape to the real RV, which they are. Target discrimination has been a big deal for interceptor radar R&D for decades. Amazing how they're 'unstoppable' until they get shot down, and then they're decoys anyway. And as regards X-101s with no warhead, the warhead is not the most expensive part of a terrain-following cruise missile by a long shot.

Presumably some kind of active digital radio frequency memory method is used by the decoys, in which case they can probably be "sized" to mimic the full sized missile. I would assume they would have different ballistic properties though and that eventually their flight behavior would deviate from the real missile, but possibly not before weapons were committed to intercepting them.

EDIT: I wouldn't assume the older AN/MPQ-53 sets are that capable of discriminatingly targets intentionally trying to look like something else. The newer -65 is a much newer set and the latest radar is a GaN AESA, so I suspect target discrimination steps up a significantly depending on your radar.

 

[Forest Green]

A 500kg warhead hitting a loaded TEL at Mach 5+, will obliterate it, as will a near miss, simple as that.

 

[Forest Green]

Do we know that? Or it's just a desirable outcome?

Patriot is a set of 6-10 pieces of equipment, spread over a significant area. We know 'something' got hit. We probably saw at least 3 different hits.

Did we? I saw one long, slow flash that looked like a SAM going haywire on launch.

'Patriot damaged' may mean an empty launcher hit by shrapnel. Or it may mean FC radar was destroyed. Both mean Patriot is 'damaged', as all pieces are replaceable. 'Destroying a Patiot' means destroying all the equipment, which means either several cluster warheads (which don't necessarily produce permanent damage) or just hitting every piece, including empty launchers, with one warhead per piece.
But losing radar/ecs de facto means losing the battery. Losing ECS, in addition, often means losing the operators.

Damage is described as 'minimal'. Units still operation.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html

The damage to a Patriot air defense system following a Russian missile attack near Kyiv on Tuesday morning is minimal, three US officials tell CNN, with one official describing it as “minor” damage.

The US sent inspectors to examine the system on Tuesday after being told by Ukrainian forces that the system appeared to have been damaged, one official said.

The system itself is still operational, the officials said, and the radar component of the Patriot, one of its most important elements, was not damaged. US officials do not believe the Patriot will need to be removed from the battlefield for repairs.

If anything - begrudgingly accepting that 'Patriot is damaged' probably means that it was indeed a Radar/ECS damage of some sort.
Undeniable damage happened.

"All fair in love and war." You can't deny warring parties their right to lie when something is shameful.
Both do as much as they can, creating two opposite information bulbs; sides tend to admit visible losses only when something is just pointless to deny. Like Moskva.

If the radar was damaged it wouldn't still be operational. Moskva was pointless to deny a long time before they stopped denying it.

Presumably some kind of active digital radio frequency memory method is used by the decoys, in which case they can probably be "sized" to mimic the full sized missile. I would assume they would have different ballistic properties though and that eventually their flight behavior would deviate from the real missile, but possibly not before weapons were committed to intercepting them.

EDIT: I wouldn't assume the older AN/MPQ-53 sets are that capable of discriminatingly targets intentionally trying to look like something else. The newer -65 is a much newer set and the latest radar is a GaN AESA, so I suspect target discrimination steps up a significantly depending on your radar.

If you look at the first Kinzhal shootdown, they only claimed one missile, not 7, and '6' isn't even divisible by 7 at any rate.

 

[Forest Green]

Vanilla PAC-3. Also, MSE isn't replacing it but supplementing it. MSE is more capable and more expensive but PAC-3 is good enough for some things and you can fit more on a launcher than MSE (16 vs 12).

I thought I read they'd ceased non-MSE production for the US Army somewhere, maybe that's changed. They are producing it for Ukraine though now I see.

 

[Dilandu]

What combination was used that night is unknown.

Well, there were about 30 launches from two close points - i.e. most likely two launchers. Thirty launches per two launchers put us close to 16 missiles per launcher - which is a full PAC-3 CRI load (two "missing" misisles either failed, or were launched before the video started).

 

[Forest Green]

Well, there were about 30 launches from two close points - i.e. most likely two launchers. Thirty launches per two launchers put us close to 16 missiles per launcher - which is a full PAC-3 CRI load (two "missing" misisles either failed, or were launched before the video started).

We know Ukraine has 2 batteries, but how many launchers are in each battery? This suggests up to 8 per battery and typically 4-8. So two batteries could be 32 PAC-2 GEM-T and 128 PAC-3, or 256 PAC-3.

The United States Army | Redstone Arsenal Historical Information

A PATRIOT battery (i.e., the basic firing unit) consists of a phased array radar, an engagement control station, computers, power generating equipment, and up to eight launchers

Weapon of Ukrainian Victory: Review of the Patriot air defense system

The United States recently decided to send a battery of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. What is this air defense missile system?

root-nation.com

4-8 launchers

Standard non-mSE PAC-3 cost seems to be $3m.

 

[bring_it_on]

For Russia it may well have cost that much. And at the end of the day, power remained on in Kyiv. So the attack was unsuccessful.

Patriots cost $4m for PAC-3 MSE and half that for PAC-2. Huge Kinzhals >$10m.

It appears they had the PAC-3 and used it. The CRI came off the line at roughly $2 MM a pop. PAC-2 were about 50% cheaper.

Also depends on how the engagement went.

Cause Russia only admitts to 6 Kinzhals, which likely got the PAC3s.

But they also set several Kaliber cruise missiles and drones that they sent in a solid multi vector time on target attack.

Which is exactly what you want to do when attacking a system like the Patriot.

With those cruise missile and drones, the Pac2s are more then good enough for.

And the Radar is noted to be able to distinguish what the targets are.

So in all likelihood we just saw usage of multiple types of missiles.

Which is precisely why Ukraine has dedicated CMD and CUAS systems like NASAMS, IRIS-T etc. On the US Army side, they are integrating the Enduring Shield launcher directly into AIAMD so that that gets tasked much of the short range work leveraging the Sentinel radar and on the same fire control network as PATRIOT.

 

[Josh_TN]

Hitting a loaded TEL hard enough to breach the box doesn't cause it to "scatter it's contents." Missiles will either cook off or just burn down in place.

It seems likely that some of the launchers were empty anyway. 32 would completely drain a pair of launchers, and it looked like only two were firing from that position from the video I saw.

 

[sferrin]

Vanilla PAC-3. Also, MSE isn't replacing it but supplementing it. MSE is more capable and more expensive but PAC-3 is good enough for some things and you can fit more on a launcher than MSE (16 vs 12).

I thought I read they'd ceased non-MSE production for the US Army somewhere, maybe that's changed. They are producing it for Ukraine though now I see.

I don't know if the vanilla PAC-3 are new-build or just transferred old stock.

 

[Zoo Tycoon]

Hitting a loaded TEL hard enough to breach the box doesn't cause it to "scatter it's contents." Missiles will either cook off or just burn down in place.

While I don’t doubt a solid hit on a TEL would demolish it, a “near miss”shock/pressure wave passing through a sealed box could easily burst it.

The US are world leaders in insensitive munitions that are specifically intended to prevent or reduce fractercide from sympathetic detonations. Ref

Insensitive munition - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

So the munitions is very purposefully designed/tested/qualified not to cook off, indeed the systems service release depends on it.

 

[Firefinder]

Hitting a loaded TEL hard enough to breach the box doesn't cause it to "scatter it's contents." Missiles will either cook off or just burn down in place.

It seems likely that some of the launchers were empty anyway. 32 would completely drain a pair of launchers, and it looked like only two were firing from that position from the video I saw.

Do remember that by SOP you can have launcher up to a few hunderd meters away from each other and the radar. And you can tied in more launcher if needed.

With Ukraine apparently having only 2 radars and nearly 20 TELs base on whats been sent between the USA, Netherlands and Germany.

Very likely they put the extra on the high risk approach zones as doubling it up.

 

[Firefinder]

Vanilla PAC-3. Also, MSE isn't replacing it but supplementing it. MSE is more capable and more expensive but PAC-3 is good enough for some things and you can fit more on a launcher than MSE (16 vs 12).

I thought I read they'd ceased non-MSE production for the US Army somewhere, maybe that's changed. They are producing it for Ukraine though now I see.

I don't know if the vanilla PAC-3 are new-build or just transferred old stock.

Eyeah needs to be point out that post 1980 missile generally have a shelf life of nearly 30 years?

With upgrades to the support systems, like radars, often being the thing to cut into that life.

So not unlikely that several of those missiles been bought and pay for back in Obamas first term...

 

[sferrin]

One takeaway from this incident is what that will mean for China/Taiwan. I suspect we'd see salvos of dozens, or hundreds of missiles rather than 6.

 

[Josh_TN]

I don't know if the vanilla PAC-3 are new-build or just transferred old stock.

I’d assume old stock. Everything else that’s been provided is either out of service or about to expire (ADM-160B, AGM-88B, RAAMS, Zuni, a lot of the initial Stingers and Javelins). it would make sense to donate things that were going to have to be demil’d soon anyway.

 

[activeaero]

There are 6 false targets in each Dagger, for a total of 7 targets. Two Daggers - 14 targets. Plus, 2 - 4 X-101s arrived without a warhead. To defeat subsonic air targets with a 75% probability, 2 missiles are required for each target. And it's better to run away from a hypersonic missile right away. So it turns out 32 anti-aircraft missiles

That is assuming Russia was able to steal enough Western electronics to make the needed decoys. Also, it assumes those decoys actually work; based on previous intercepts, I have my doubts on how effective those decoys actually are. Why did Russia just imprison 3 of its "hypersonic scientists" for treason, if they work so well?

Разработчиков гиперзвуковых ракет Путина арестовали за госизмену - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Волна дел о государственной измене, охватившая Россию после начала войны в Украине, докатилась до крупнейшего научного центра отечественной оборонной промышленности.

www.moscowtimes.ru

 

[activeaero]

One takeaway from this incident is what that will mean for China/Taiwan. I suspect we'd see salvos of dozens, or hundreds of missiles rather than 6.

I've never seen evidence China would be able to launch 100s of CMs/BMs/AShMs/etc. at once, at specific targets. I have my doubts they would be able to do that.

 

[sferrin]

One takeaway from this incident is what that will mean for China/Taiwan. I suspect we'd see salvos of dozens, or hundreds of missiles rather than 6.

I've never seen evidence China would be able to launch 100s of CMs/BMs/AShMs/etc. at once, at specific targets. I have my doubts they would be able to do that.

Not one specific target (like a radar) but at a defended area like an air base or city. They have lots of DF-11s I'd think and rocket systems of large enough caliber that they're effectively missiles anyway. (Though the latter might not require Patriot.)



And whatever these things are. Oh and those YJ-21s on the Type 055s. I suspect production lines will all be set at eleven for the foreseeable future.

 

[Trident]

TAlso, it assumes those decoys actually work; based on previous intercepts, I have my doubts on how effective those decoys actually are. Why did Russia just imprison 3 of its "hypersonic scientists" for treason, if they work so well?

They've been credited with making Iskander intercepts very difficult for Ukrainian Soviet-built SAMs (many of which are fundamentally capable of taking down ballistic targets just fine). You may have your doubts, but the people making that particular claim visited the country and talked to the personnel actually operating those sytems. What do you know that they don't?

And on what basis are you linking these arrested people to decoy development? There is nothing whatsoever to suggest a connection in the article, and in any case (as you say yourself) the charge is presented as being treason, rather than incompetence. You're jumping to conclusions all over the place.

On the whole, that they don't work is a much bigger assumption to make. Will they be equally effective against every radar system? Of course not.