Ukrainian Patriot SAM operational/technical discussions

In the first video, that shows 30 interceptor launches in 2 minutes (impressive that the Russians could pack nearly thirty attacking missiles and drones into the battery's footprint nearly simultaneously), there's a 6 minute gap between the last interceptor launch and the explosion on the ground. If the explosion on the ground is a malfunctioning interceptor, where did it go for (at least) 6 minutes?

You are assuming 1 interceptor per target, which is very unlikely to be the case against a ballistic threat.

Also, if the image in post #26 is real, the malfunctioning missile never made it very far from its launcher. So it would've simply been launched 6 minutes after the original salvo, and then crashed almost immediately, before even rising above the horizon as seen from the filming location. What makes you think it has to be part of the initial sequence of launches?

A failed interceptor launch is certainly possible, and consistent with the almost intact missile photographed on the ground. OTOH, if it remained intact, it's inconsistent with the apparent explosion - but then, that might simply have been the flash from rocket motor ignition. So we can't exclude a successful strike on the battery (which ejected a missile from a launcher) either - hell, BOTH could be true for all we know.

The bigger news here is that it all but confirms the presence of PAC-3 missiles in Ukrainian service, which may go some way toward explaining the damage observed on the Kinzhal warhead.
 
Is there a way to check if the system used in the video above is actually Patriot?
Not that I'm aware, but I'm sure more info will come out with such a public mass firing. Honestly rather impressed; I've never see a SAM fire like that. I always knew it was hypothetically possible; 30 launches could represent as little as two launchers of PAC3, and maybe it was some other SAM system altogether for all we know. But to see what definitely was some kind of air defense system spit out rockets like it was an artillery bombardment is something.
 
A fragment? That's the entire missile. It's weird it's so intact, too. Was it even launched? Even if it malfunctioned right away after launch, wouldn't it get banged up more as it fell on the ground?

Edit: two different missiles fell out of a launcher and remained fairly intact? What happened there?

Probably some kind of primary motor failure. I assume a kick motor fires it out the box and the main motor fires once it is clear of the launch site; a lot of SAMs and most ATGMs use that set up.
 
(impressive that the Russians could pack nearly thirty attacking missiles and drones into the battery's footprint nearly simultaneously)

I'd assume they are double tapping anything fast moving, so the number of incoming might be half the outbound or even less given some misses.
 
(impressive that the Russians could pack nearly thirty attacking missiles and drones into the battery's footprint nearly simultaneously)

I'd assume they are double tapping anything fast moving, so the number of incoming might be half the outbound or even less given some misses.

Well the Ukrainians claimed they shot down 27 targets.
 
Well the Ukrainians claimed they shot down 27 targets.
I trust their press releases just as much as the Russians. More over that doesn't mean that this particular launch event was associated with those 27 shootdowns, even if that number is accurate.
 
(impressive that the Russians could pack nearly thirty attacking missiles and drones into the battery's footprint nearly simultaneously)

I'd assume they are double tapping anything fast moving, so the number of incoming might be half the outbound or even less given some misses.

Well the Ukrainians claimed they shot down 27 targets.
There are also other SAM systems in the Kyiv region like the IRIS-T SLM and NASAMS both of which could have been used against the cruise missiles and drones shot down.
 
It isn't, there aren't any more launches before the final explosion ( I suspect they ran dry).
Well the reports are saying that nothing got through anyway. They generally admit when some missiles get through. I can't find any unedited video on YT right now, just that garbage version where there's a pause as a missile trail starts to emerge and then a rewind with exactly zero secondaries.


 
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Why would that be surprising to anyone? Patriot has shot down maneuvering targets similar to Kinzhal in many tests. The current target used to represent weapons like Kinzhal is a surplus ATACMS on a Mk 70 booster, which possesses similar burnout velocity and maneuverability.

Kinzhal isn't even hypersonic at the terminal phase, the maneuvering it performs in the late midcourse phase bleeds substantial energy.
What impressed me was the hole in the warhead casing from a warhead fragment from a PAC-2.
What makes you think it was a PAC-2 that did that? Ukraine has PAC-3 interceptors as well.
 
Why would that be surprising to anyone? Patriot has shot down maneuvering targets similar to Kinzhal in many tests. The current target used to represent weapons like Kinzhal is a surplus ATACMS on a Mk 70 booster, which possesses similar burnout velocity and maneuverability.

Kinzhal isn't even hypersonic at the terminal phase, the maneuvering it performs in the late midcourse phase bleeds substantial energy.
What impressed me was the hole in the warhead casing from a warhead fragment from a PAC-2.
What makes you think it was a PAC-2 that did that? Ukraine has PAC-3 interceptors as well.
Because at the time I said it I don't think it was known that they got PAC-3.
 
I watched the original Livestream while it was still up on Youtube, the Ukrainians had it taken down for opsec reasons (go figure). This video shows all the launches from the AD battery, 30 missiles in about 2 minutes. There's one launch towards the end that might be something else (based on the color of the exhaust plume). 6 minutes has been cut out between the last missile fired and the final explosion.
I don't suppose you downloaded it?
 
There are two or three explosions on the ground in Kiev. There is a video.
A cluster warhead can hit a fairly large area
 
I watched the original Livestream while it was still up on Youtube, the Ukrainians had it taken down for opsec reasons (go figure). This video shows all the launches from the AD battery, 30 missiles in about 2 minutes. There's one launch towards the end that might be something else (based on the color of the exhaust plume). 6 minutes has been cut out between the last missile fired and the final explosion.
I don't suppose you downloaded it?
There's this:
View: https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1658419816829427713

And this:
View: https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1658330833164312576
 
If that battery was taken out, it put up a hell of a fight before the end. Better words can hardly be spoken of any weapons system or man.
Doesn't sound like it was. Sounds like the only evidence of something dying on the defender's side was the PAC-3 misfire that crashed.
 
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I watched the original Livestream while it was still up on Youtube, the Ukrainians had it taken down for opsec reasons (go figure). This video shows all the launches from the AD battery, 30 missiles in about 2 minutes. There's one launch towards the end that might be something else (based on the color of the exhaust plume). 6 minutes has been cut out between the last missile fired and the final explosion.
I don't suppose you downloaded it?
No sorry, I'd assumed it would stay up because it was just showing what was already being shared around in that 'edited highlights' clip.

This was the link, I checked a minute ago but it's still 'unavailable':
 
I have a ~7 minute vid saved. Don't know if it shows what you want?
Here: https://files.catbox.moe/rz2i5f.mp4

Excellent! Yes, I think that's it. Main action starts around 3:00am, ground explosions at around 3:07am.

I'd missed the second large explosion when I watched it before. And there's a bunch more SAM activity just beforehand as well!

Thank you.
 
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3:07am is where the damn thing finishes for Kyiv. WTF?!
 
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Russian MoD are saying they hit a patriot system with a Kinzhal.

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation launched a combined attack with long-range precision-guided air- and sea-based weapons against the AFU units, as well as depots of ammunition, weapons and military equipment supplied by Western countries.
The goal of the attack has been reached. All the assigned targets have been neutralised.
U.S.-manufactured Patriot surface-to-air missile system has been struck by Kinnzhal hypersonic glide vehicle in Kiev.
...
Fighter Aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down Su-24 and Su-25 aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force near Varvarovka and Krasnoarmeysk (Donetsk People's Republic).
Air defence forces intercepted seven Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles, three HARM anti-radar missiles and seven HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system projectiles.
Air defence facilities have shot down 22 unmanned aerial vehicles close to Ivanovka and Yevgenovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Topolyovka (Lugansk People's Republic), Inzhenernoye, Blagoveshchenka (Zaporpzhye region), and Krynki (Kherson region).
 
This was likely a very expensive exercise for both sides. But the data the US got must be almost priceless. A 30 missile engagement against truly representative targets? Against a target that Russia would struggle to directly monitor with radar such that it probably learned little from the engagement? It’s the kind of opportunity you can’t buy. PAC3 was probably provided explicitly to test the system in a high stress but low risk environment in this manner.
 
Let me understand this: despite the evidence of furious attempts by the battery to save itself (quite frantically by the end of the salvo TBH) and explosions in the ground where it was located, the system shot down a huge number of missiles it was not designed to shoot down, and if not, it was not destroyed but damaged, and if it was, it put a hell of a fight and managed to gather invaluable info... that is certainly the most likely explanation of what happened, yes!
 
Let me understand this: despite the evidence of furious attempts by the battery to save itself (quite frantically by the end of the salvo TBH)

Why wouldn't defending against a coordinated attack look exactly like what we're seeing? Everything would be arriving at the same time and you don't want to fire off missiles before it makes sense to.

and explosions in the ground where it was located,

"Explosions"? Have you ever seen a missile launch at night?

the system shot down a huge number of missiles it was not designed to shoot down

Wrong. This is EXACTLY what it was designed for. This isn't a 1980s Patriot battery.

, and if not, it was not destroyed but damaged, and if it was, it put a hell of a fight and managed to gather invaluable info...

Still waiting for information as to exactly what was damaged. Hell, for all we know, the PAC-3 that misfired clipped a launcher.
 
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Let me understand this: despite the evidence of furious attempts by the battery to save itself (quite frantically by the end of the salvo TBH) and explosions in the ground where it was located, the system shot down a huge number of missiles it was not designed to shoot down, and if not, it was not destroyed but damaged, and if it was, it put a hell of a fight and managed to gather invaluable info... that is certainly the most likely explanation of what happened, yes!

I’ve no idea what was shooting at or how successful it was, but I’m sure analysis of the engagement is going to be studied for years. So yes only to the invaluable info part.
 
It looks like a missile who’s primary motor never fired (or at least fired correctly) to me. It kicked out the launch box and fell to the ground largely intact.
 
CNN confirming a battery was 'potentially damaged'. No clue as to how extensively.

Piece also says Ukraine only currently has two (2) Patriot systems, one donated by the US and one by Germany AND The Netherlands. Is that right?

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Let me understand this: despite the evidence of furious attempts by the battery to save itself (quite frantically by the end of the salvo TBH) and explosions in the ground where it was located, the system shot down a huge number of missiles it was not designed to shoot down, and if not, it was not destroyed but damaged, and if it was, it put a hell of a fight and managed to gather invaluable info... that is certainly the most likely explanation of what happened, yes!
Shoigu claimed that the Ukrainian number of Kinzhals used is severely overstated.
This sounds likely, because the 6-missile Kinzhal salvo sounds very... unusual and difficult to do(stock is low, number of Mig-31k airframes is in very low 2 digits).
IMHO (no substance, just an opinion), Moscow is simply unlikely to commit to a salvo of more than 2-3 units per time.

p.s. but the crew certainly went through a lot. The first time was a relatively reasonable experience with a single intercept (i personally still think it was iskander), and then, their very second time is this.
 

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