Trillion Dollar Trainwreck: How the F-35 Hollowed out the US Air Force by Bill Sweetman

1 - That's not the question. Cost of an AF/Navy program? My guess is that it would have ended up looking like J-31 or KF-21. Leaner and cleaner, no new engine needed, smaller CD phase, no weight panic.
2 - France does have a smaller carrier, but for quite a while planned to follow CdG with a version of CVF.
3 - Not sure what the landing roll is there, but certainly I have not seen a demo off anything less than 6000 feet. (That arrival seems pretty fast.)
4 - Marine PR party trick.
 
That's not the question. Cost of an AF/Navy program? My guess is that it would have ended up looking like J-31 or KF-21. Leaner and cleaner, no new engine needed, smaller CD phase, no weight panic.

You still have to factor in the Harrier replacement. Just because you kick it out of the JSF program doesn't mean the requirement goes away.

3 - Not sure what the landing roll is there, but certainly I have not seen a demo off anything less than 6000 feet. (That arrival seems pretty fast.)

Slow rolling landing. Both the USMC and RN practice it.




4 - Marine PR party trick.

That's one opinion. (And they had 20 F-35Bs.)

 
People like to through these emotive "Trillion dollar" references out there while rarely acknowledging that the numbers come from life cycle costs to operate and sustain the aircraft over its 66-year life cycle. I wonder if anyone has done similar cost analysis (factoring in inflation effects) for the F-16, F-15 or other platforms over their total lives.
 
People like to through these emotive "Trillion dollar" references out there while rarely acknowledging that the numbers come from life cycle costs to operate and sustain the aircraft over its 66-year life cycle. I wonder if anyone has done similar cost analysis (factoring in inflation effects) for the F-16, F-15 or other platforms over their total lives.
There was an article in Aviation Week several years ago that did and both the F-16 and Hornet broke a trillion. Eagle might have too.
 
I should be more clear. STOVL isn't worth what it cost in the F-35 program. Not even close,

Sure you can do SRVLs. On moving, thermally protected steel decks,

Three issues with LHA/LHD STOVL carrier: aviation fuel and weapon capacity. Ability to do amphib role with limited rotorcraft. Utility without AEW support from carrier.

As for the trillions thing, go whinge at your prime. It was Micky Blackwell who first used the T-word.
 
If by "customer" you mean the Marines, you may be right. But then, it came out of the Navy's budget, like the V-22 and CH-53K.
I mean like the Marines, Japan, South Korea, the UK, etc. etc. etc. As for the USN, after the NATF and A-12 fiascos, they only have themselves to blame for having the F-35C forced on them. If it wasn't for that they'd be flying Super Hornets for the next half century.
 
How did the Navy fiasco NATF?
Congress in the mid-80s mandated that the Navy would replace the F-14 with a version of ATF and the Air Force would buy an A-12 variant, an arrangement to which the services assented with fingers firmly crossed behind their backs. Despite the fact that the agreement had fallen apart by source selection, Lockheed still scored points for a better NATF design - it was called out by SecAF Rice as "an important factor".
 
That is something that has always puzzled me. According to most sources, the NATF program was canceled BEFORE the ATF selection. I can't find any precise date - "early 1991" is the best I can get - while the ATF winner was announced in August 1991.
Yet the YF-22 potential navalization remained a factor in the final decision?

According to Aviation Week:
[The Navy canceled the NATF in its fiscal 1991 budget request, but Lockheed ATF Program Manager Sherman Mullin nevertheless credited the Navy’s support as a contributing factor toward its ATF victory. “The Navy still got a vote in the ATF competition, and, as we found out later for certain, it casted for our F-22 team,” he said.]

Link:
 
NATF was a bloated monster.
What's worse than an eye-watering expensive F-22 ? a naval, eye watering expensive F-22.
What's worse than a naval, eye watering expensive F-22 ?
- a VG-wing, naval, eye-watering expensive F-22.

Best thing the USN could have afforded would have been a KF-21 Boramae lookalike. I will die on that hill. Mini naval F-22 shape; for the F-35C role; with the Superbug engines.
 
That is something that has always puzzled me.
Scratching my brain, it didn't seem as weird at the time. NAVAIR might have indicated that NATF was dead, but it had not been ratified by Congress/OSD. I recall that events such as Tailhook (which decapitated NAVAIR) and SecNav O'Keefe's decision that the Navy was going to get Super Hornet were after the ATF source selection. Also, it would have been hard to change S/S parameters so late.
 
Congress in the mid-80s mandated that the Navy would replace the F-14 with a version of ATF and the Air Force would buy an A-12 variant, an arrangement to which the services assented with fingers firmly crossed behind their backs. Despite the fact that the agreement had fallen apart by source selection, Lockheed still scored points for a better NATF design - it was called out by SecAF Rice as "an important factor".
Navy especially didn’t want an AF hand me down.
It’s amazing how long commonality has persisted for.
“TFX was bad” but someone keeps pushing commonality ever since.
 
"What's worse than an eye-watering expensive F-22 ? a naval, eye watering expensive F-22.
What's worse than a naval, eye watering expensive F-22 ?
- a VG-wing, naval, eye-watering expensive F-22. "

What's worse than a VG-wing, naval, eye-watering expensive F-22? That's right, the F/A-XX.
 
Best thing the USN could have afforded would have been a KF-21 Boramae lookalike. I will die on that hill. Mini naval F-22 shape; for the F-35C role; with the Superbug engines.
Only if you're happy to accept less internal payload and air vehicle performance. Otherwise you need bigger engines in a bigger airframe.
 
Navy especially didn’t want an AF hand me down.
It’s amazing how long commonality has persisted for.
“TFX was bad” but someone keeps pushing commonality ever since.

TFX was just people looking at F-4 Phantom and saying "wow that's great, do it again!" though.


Making an air force use a naval fighter isn't hard. Making a land fighter into a naval fighter is.

The USAF should just not be allowed to ask Congress for anything smaller than a B-21. Easy.

Whatever tactical fighters around 10-100,000 lbs Navy has is what the Air Force gets to use.
 
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ePub?

Print is old-skool copyright protection. It's like the Minuteman computer system or owning a six-speed manual car.
I wonder what percentage of people even buy physical books anymore. Nothing I like more than cracking open a new book. Picked this up last month. Wish there was one like it for Allison and Marquardt.

81J83gUdhEL._SL1500_.jpg
 
I wonder what percentage of people even buy physical books anymore. Nothing I like more than cracking open a new book. Picked this up last month. Wish there was one like it for Allison and Marquardt.

View attachment 729389

Print book sales are strong. I've got the numbers. My company also sells PDFs. Sales of the latter are mostly to people who don't want to pay for shipping. That said, based on a non-scientific survey I've conducted, most people prefer paper books. People who are avid book collectors have to figure out where to put them once all the shelf space is gone. I'm doing fine on that front, with plans to keep buying paper. I have no desire to spend more time staring at my computer screen. As in the past, I want reading a book to be a totally separate task that does not involve a screen.
 
Big issue with what I see with the opinion of it being bad and should be replace with something else.

They never say to replace it with something that actually...

You...

Fix the freaking issues.

Range? The only plane that can match the 35 payload to range is the F15, the F16/18 Rafael and have worse payload to range figures. The KF21 is better, but has lesser stealthing, slightly less range compare to similar variations, and is still 2 years away from prime time*. The F22 gets close but unless it has drop takes comes out bout 75 miles short base on public stats.

It agility. Its on par with the F16/18 with similar experience pilots. The F16 beats the F35 fight had the F16 pilot having over 200 hours in the F16 to the F34s 15 hours. A 200 hour F35 pilot is going to whop the F16 tail pipe 9 out of 10 times. The F22 murders it but the F22 is a one trick pony spec for A2A i be worry if it didnt. Its like saying the F106 was a better plane the the F16 cause an Nat Guard F106 murdereda F16 flight in Training. Which did happened multiple times for the First few years of the F16 life.

Its stealth payload. Name me a similar size stealth plane with a bigger stealthed payload. Or has the ability to carry unstealth stuff. The Closest be the F22 which still second to the F35 since its size limited to 2 1k jdam or 4 SDBs at the cost of Aim120s. And outright can not carry the other weapons like the ALCMs HARMS and like.

Its Sensors... only the very newest fighters still in RnD are better and they lose that once Lockmart gets the newest block working.

Cost, its fly away as cheap as a new F18 at 80 million with only bout a 10 percent more maintance wise per flight hour. Program alot more but going into that in a bit..

As a actual Multirole plane the F35 is only second to the specialists, as it should, and comes in a good bit cheaper as well. It does every ask and more at a standard that exceeds needs. Only way to do better in a given role is by going full specialized in that role at the cost be being good in the other roles. For the capability it gives you at the buying price it cannnot be beat.

Biggest issue is that the program that gave use it should be used as the DEFINITION of Poorly Ran and over budget.

At the end we got an amazing plane that gets more hate then it should, but program managers should be black listed from leading any other program cause deal lord it amazing it didnt get Cancel in 2009 to 2012 like many other things. Like cause doing so would result in waiting another 18 years for the replacement.

As seen by the KF21, which *after a similar amount of time in development mind you, be 16 years before its IOC in 2026 compare to the F35 20 [1995 to 2015] with the KF21 going full rate being in 2030, (F35 2021).

TLDR: Actaul Plane is anazing. The Program to get it is a Shipwreck.
 
Big issue with what I see with the opinion of it being bad and should be replace with something else.

They never say to replace it with something that actually...

You...

Fix the freaking issues.

Range? The only plane that can match the 35 payload to range is the F15, the F16/18 Rafael and have worse payload to range figures. The KF21 is better, but has lesser stealthing, slightly less range compare to similar variations, and is still 2 years away from prime time*. The F22 gets close but unless it has drop takes comes out bout 75 miles short base on public stats.

It agility. Its on par with the F16/18 with similar experience pilots. The F16 beats the F35 fight had the F16 pilot having over 200 hours in the F16 to the F34s 15 hours. A 200 hour F35 pilot is going to whop the F16 tail pipe 9 out of 10 times. The F22 murders it but the F22 is a one trick pony spec for A2A i be worry if it didnt. Its like saying the F106 was a better plane the the F16 cause an Nat Guard F106 murdereda F16 flight in Training. Which did happened multiple times for the First few years of the F16 life.

Its stealth payload. Name me a similar size stealth plane with a bigger stealthed payload. Or has the ability to carry unstealth stuff. The Closest be the F22 which still second to the F35 since its size limited to 2 1k jdam or 4 SDBs at the cost of Aim120s. And outright can not carry the other weapons like the ALCMs HARMS and like.

Its Sensors... only the very newest fighters still in RnD are better and they lose that once Lockmart gets the newest block working.

Cost, its fly away as cheap as a new F18 at 80 million with only bout a 10 percent more maintance wise per flight hour. Program alot more but going into that in a bit..

As a actual Multirole plane the F35 is only second to the specialists, as it should, and comes in a good bit cheaper as well. It does every ask and more at a standard that exceeds needs. Only way to do better in a given role is by going full specialized in that role at the cost be being good in the other roles. For the capability it gives you at the buying price it cannnot be beat.

Biggest issue is that the program that gave use it should be used as the DEFINITION of Poorly Ran and over budget.

At the end we got an amazing plane that gets more hate then it should, but program managers should be black listed from leading any other program cause deal lord it amazing it didnt get Cancel in 2009 to 2012 like many other things. Like cause doing so would result in waiting another 18 years for the replacement.

As seen by the KF21, which *after a similar amount of time in development mind you, be 16 years before its IOC in 2026 compare to the F35 20 [1995 to 2015] with the KF21 going full rate being in 2030, (F35 2021).

TLDR: Actaul Plane is anazing. The Program to get it is a Shipwreck.
Yep. It's amazing that people never stop thinking that "next time" it will be trouble free if only we cancel the current thing. And many of the detractors of the F-35 are the same people who were constantly ripping on the F-22. (Controversy, real or imagined, sells you know.)
 
Martin,

That is not how its done. Once the documents are collected, they are written in a way that flows. That tells what actually happened without bias. Without input from the author. History books are not about the author.
I was just reading a history book, clearly reworked from a thesis, that's revisiting the history of the Singapore Strategy and the loss of Force Z, and what the signal traffic actually says, which quotes a letter from Captain Stephen Roskill, the author of the RN's official history, saying roughly "I'm going to have another go at Winston, because I'm convinced he gave Tom Phillips secret orders". He had his view, he had no evidence to support it, but he was absolutely going to write history the way he saw it. And he set the way it was written for the next 80 years.
 
@aim9xray Perhaps I should clarify. My trade is programming, the demand for new systems rarely originates with the end-users. In many cases, new technology drives the demand for new systems, because it offers new possibilities, financial, functional, operational or maintenance-wise. A responsible group of Computer Science weenies will wish to gather information from as much of the fields of expertise that matter.

Some of that information, some of it crucial, resides in, among others, end-users. Us weenies ignore them at our peril. Whoever cuts us off from that source of information needs a bloody good reason for that cutoff.
While there is a need for end-user input, I'd throw a big caveat into this. On a big project the average coder has little need for contact with the end-user. I'm not sure I ever talked to an end-user in my entire career. We had the occasional one pass through and do a presentation, but contract level, even engineering-level discussion, not my department. OTOH if you consider the customer's QA engineers the end-user then I had them leaning over my shoulder for years at a time. Give us a set of flight control laws, or a tweak to those rules from flight-testing, and it's just a case of cranking those equations into code, but for a lot of the stuff involved in multiply-redundant, real-time, safety-critical software, we were the experts, not the customer*. The end-users would barely know what the penal system (to pick an example) was, the customer would only know they had specified a certain level of redundancy, but designing it, implementing it and debugging it, that was what we did day in, day out. (The penal system was our way of managing redundancy, and it's not just Box X has failed, but situations like "Box X has failed and now Boxes Y and Z disagree, what do we do?"**)

* Doubly so on 777 where the FAA didn't really know what they were doing WRT FBW systems.

** And then multiply that for three sets of three boxes, plus ancillary stuff like ADCs.

My impression is that F-35's software problems have nothing to do with coding per ser, or contact between the coders and end users. I think the entire computer architecture is problematic, it's over-integrated, it massively multiplies the degree of integration testing needed, and, as we're currently seeing with TR-3, it means everything is tied to the progress of the slowest element. There's clearly power in sensor fusion and throwing massive computing resources at what you're doing with it, but that doesn't mean you have to tie every single computing system in the aircraft into one monolithic block. Over and above being problematical in itself, it means you can't justify smaller upgrades because of the amount of integration required and that drives you into combining changes into larger and larger changes, which then require unmanageable levels of integration testing.

(And to paraphrase a remarkable foreword in my copy of the MISRA C guidelines, 'If you're going to do a massively integrated safety-critical system, we'd really rather you didn't do it in C....' C has just too many ways to enable stupidity go subtly wrong).
 
I was just reading a history book, clearly reworked from a thesis, that's revisiting the history of the Singapore Strategy and the loss of Force Z, and what the signal traffic actually says, which quotes a letter from Captain Stephen Roskill, the author of the RN's official history, saying roughly "I'm going to have another go at Winston, because I'm convinced he gave Tom Phillips secret orders". He had his view, he had no evidence to support it, but he was absolutely going to write history the way he saw it. And he set the way it was written for the next 80 years.

Books like that require careful consideration by the reader. If I read something surprising, my first thought is: How does he know this? If there is no footnote to accompany this, no relevant document(s), then I'm going to look further. I don't like people assuming things. But, that said, a clearly marked suspicion should be noted - as long as it is clearly marked as a suspicion. A recent real world example regarding the Falklands War illustrates the difference between what actually happened and what was written after the fact. An excerpt from a recent article:

"This contradicts a number of memoirs, it contradicts the accepted narrative, it contradicts what almost everybody believes - the inquiry now accepts that that did not take place," added Mr Black.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80z0d152wzo
 
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Yep. It's amazing that people never stop thinking that "next time" it will be trouble free if only we cancel the current thing. And many of the detractors of the F-35 are the same people who were constantly ripping on the F-22. (Controversy, real or imagined, sells you know.)

Controversy may "sell" but it certainly does not get things done.
 
While there is a need for end-user input, I'd throw a big caveat into this. On a big project the average coder has little need for contact with the end-user.
There are a lot of communicationally challenged coders around, but the Computer Science weenies also number information analysts and system architects among them. They are the ones who need to pick the brains of whoever will be involved with a new automated system - or to advise whether a new automated system indeed fits an organisation's changing needs.
Those analysts and architects need a solid grasp, solid understanding of problems needing a solution. If none of them have the analytical bent or social skills needed to wheedle that information out of whoever will be involved with a new automated system, or get locked out of talking to them, That Automated System Will Be Garbage.
 
the Computer Science weenies also number information analysts and system architects among them. They are the ones who need to pick the brains of whoever will be involved with a new automated system - or to advise whether a new automated system indeed fits an organisation's changing needs.
It depends who you're dealing with, Boeing pretty much just emailed us the design for the 777 Flight Control Laws and left us to get on with it, with a couple of resident QA guys to keep an eye on us. The system architecture was entirely ours, while all the cockpit and flight qualities stuff needed to define the flight control laws/requirements happened at customer level, not contractor. On EFA PFCS we had a local systems engineering team who had no more contact with the end-users than the rest of us, but also a Munich systems engineering team (joint BAE/DASA) talking to... well actually I'm not sure who they were talking to, probably ultimately the flight qualities guys at BAE Warton, though possibly with someone at Eurofighter Gmbh or DASA* in-between - iow even the effective end-user guys were still in-house. Eurofighter Gmbh would be negotiating what went into each tranche at the partner nations level, but as soon as you got down into sub-systems like flight controls the 'end user' was usually another part of the consortium.

I've done the systems engineering role on internal projects, so I'm not oblivious to it, but on a large project it may still be several steps removed from contact with the 'end user'.
 
1 - That's not the question. Cost of an AF/Navy program? My guess is that it would have ended up looking like J-31 or KF-21. Leaner and cleaner, no new engine needed, smaller CD phase, no weight panic.
2 - France does have a smaller carrier, but for quite a while planned to follow CdG with a version of CVF.
3 - Not sure what the landing roll is there, but certainly I have not seen a demo off anything less than 6000 feet. (That arrival seems pretty fast.)
4 - Marine PR party trick.
The USAF wanted something with a single engine from the start, and it made sense for that engine to be some development of the F119. It would seem the weight penalty of internal weapons carriage was underestimated which could just as easily happen with any similar design. The F-22 had a higher weight than originally envisioned too.
 
@DWG Enlightening. I will have to let sink in which role this kind of compartmentalisation in development might have played in the developing the troubled flight control system of the 737 MAX.
 
Clearly. As lots of amateurs do just that.

A view that adds value is usually seen to come from some, ideally deep and/or broad, experience of doing what you are talking about. Else it is just hot air.

Self publishing a book complaining about F-35 having had precisely zero to do with it, or indeed, anything like it, is nothing but an ego trip and huge demonstration of self indulgence.

Sections of society’s penchant for people who gob off with no quals or experience base on which to base their shouting, is at the core of a lot of the west’s current problems.

Bill Sweetman has been a highly regarded frontline journalist for decades, with side gigs in industry.
He is widely recognised as being one of the leading authorities on LO. He is recognised as being one of the foremost commentators on the F-35.
I can guarantee that he has spoken in greater depth, to far more of the most senior programme insiders than you have. He has a brain the size of a planet, and understands what those with "deep and/or broad, experience" tell him, and a formidable ability to discern between the truth and industry 'spin'.

The penchant of people like you to 'gob off '(from behind a comfortable cloak of anonymity), taking potshots at a man who is worth ten of you, who has a great more insight, knowledge and experience than you, and who has the guts to raise his head above the parapet, because he is driven to illuminate and educate, is, frankly, a bit vomit-inducing, and you really should go and give yourself a bit of a talking to.

For less acid-filled folk, you can bet your bottom dollar that Bill's book will be insightful, beautifully well-written, amusing and smart.
 
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