Sukhoi Su-57 / T-50 / PAK FA - flight testing and development Part II [2012-current]

[Ainen]

I don't think this is going to be the case. Su-57 needs to proliferate rather quickly and even then the plane has only recently entered service and still has a lifespan of a couple of decades ahead of it. Using them right away in this war dramatically increases the risk of the US somehow capturing invaluable signal intel from it and it's not like this would be similar to the Mig-31 affair in the past, you just can't get away without a deep redesign which means investing billions into the development all over again.

Equipment is ultimately meant to be used. If it can't - it isn't a fighter, and buying it will in practice negatively affect country's armed forces.

Why the rush tho ? Especially that there seems to be uncertainty of orders beyond the initial 76.

Let's say they managed to deliver the entire order in just 5 years, and no more orders are coming, where the workforce and toolings can be utilized ? People will quit/retired, even with tools retained you will still need to train the newer generation of workers, how one can do this when they already lost the previous experienced workers ?

You seriously consider that line will stop in 2027? I heard there's a war, after all.

 

[stealthflanker]

You seriously consider that line will stop in 2027? I heard there's a war, after all.

At least there has to be news on expanded orders. I believe tho KNAAZ also play safe that way with the production rate. Maybe if the Russian govt orders additional, say 100-200 more airframes to begin replacing the Su-35 and old Su-27SM's, then we might really see increase in production rate.

 

[totoro]

If there are not going to be more than 76 orders in total then the whole project is a failure. You don't invest billions into something only to cut it short after so few planes.
Even if the Su-57 don't get produced anymore, the workforce is likely to be retained, working on other, probably military projects. So that's not a likely issue.

Do we actually have a conclusive proof that indeed 10+ airframes were delivered last year? I know that was reported, but what actual proof was there?

 

[Ainen]

At least there has to be news on expanded orders. I believe tho KNAAZ also play safe that way with the production rate. Maybe if the Russian govt orders additional, say 100-200 more airframes to begin replacing the Su-35 and old Su-27SM's, then we might really see increase in production rate.

Like I will eat my hat if this line will stop or slow down anytime soon due to a lack of orders.
And I wouldn‘t call production rate growing a whole year ahead of schedule "safe".

 

[Geo]

What is this debate about? The facts are clear:
- RuAF received 3 new Su-57s recently;
- KnAAZ invests in production facilities;
- no one canceled or modified the order for 76 aircraft until 2027.
The "low" production rate is determined by the order, everything else is media or fan speculation.
By the way, when we have to speculate about the future of the Su-57... The Russian armed forces received only after 2010(!) more than 400(!) NEW aircraft of the Flanker family, which saw the light of day at the turn of the 70s/80s.
We know how the Felon family will grow in the next 20-40 years? We know sh*t.

 

[Deino]

What is this debate about? The facts are clear:
- RuAF received 3 new Su-57s recently;
- KnAAZ invests in production facilities;
- no one canceled or modified the order for 76 aircraft until 2027.
The "low" production rate is determined by the order, everything else is media or fan speculation.
By the way, when we have to speculate about the future of the Su-57... The Russian armed forces received only after 2010(!) more than 400(!) NEW aircraft of the Flanker family, which saw the light of day at the turn of the 70s/80s.
We know how the Felon family will grow in the next 20-40 years? We know sh*t.

Again, ... the facts are clear and correct, but you omitted also that even official sources claim hell whatever ... what in the end did not materialise (we'll double the production numbers from 2023) or is still wrong (aka all in Su-57M standard).

So, similar to the similar story about Indian claims on the Tejas vs reality check it remains still more a drama than a successful story.

 

[Ainen]

Again, ... the facts are clear and correct, but you omitted also that even official sources claim hell whatever ... what in the end did not materialise (we'll double the production numbers from 2023) or is still wrong (aka all in Su-57M standard).

Quite a lot of conclusions about now and future from a single gif. I remember in sinowatching it is discouraged.

 

[Blitzo]

Again, ... the facts are clear and correct, but you omitted also that even official sources claim hell whatever ... what in the end did not materialise (we'll double the production numbers from 2023) or is still wrong (aka all in Su-57M standard).

So, similar to the similar story about Indian claims on the Tejas vs reality check it remains still more a drama than a successful story.

Is there any reason to believe that the three Su-57s depicted in those images are the only Su-57s delivered this year?

While Russia is somewhat more open about aircraft production and deliveries than say, the PLA is, I don't think we have any reason to think that they are showing every airframe delivered at any given point in time, or indeed every batch which gets delivered to begin with.

 

[Geo]

Again, ... the facts are clear and correct, but you omitted also that even official sources claim hell whatever ... what in the end did not materialise (we'll double the production numbers from 2023) or is still wrong (aka all in Su-57M standard).

So, similar to the similar story about Indian claims on the Tejas vs reality check it remains still more a drama than a successful story.

Again, ... the facts are clear and correct, but you omitted also that even official sources claim hell whatever ... what in the end did not materialise (we'll double the production numbers from 2023) or is still wrong (aka all in Su-57M standard).

So, similar to the similar story about Indian claims on the Tejas vs reality check it remains still more a drama than a successful story.

You read somewhere about updating the contract to 76 letsdel until 2027? What serious meaning (and what logic) does your mention of "doubling production numbers" have in this context?
Can you please cite any official source that discussed the production of the Su-57M? Not about the engines, but the production version of the Su-57M. Such information would certainly be of interest to many of us.

 

[AGS-1787]

What is this debate about? The facts are clear:
- RuAF received 3 new Su-57s recently;
- KnAAZ invests in production facilities;
- no one canceled or modified the order for 76 aircraft until 2027.
The "low" production rate is determined by the order, everything else is media or fan speculation.
By the way, when we have to speculate about the future of the Su-57... The Russian armed forces received only after 2010(!) more than 400(!) NEW aircraft of the Flanker family, which saw the light of day at the turn of the 70s/80s.
We know how the Felon family will grow in the next 20-40 years? We know sh*t.

It looks like the initial batch is something like the f-14A. Their plan is to get more with the new engines when they are ready. I'm more concerned about the su-75.

 

[Geo]

It looks like the initial batch is something like the f-14A. Their plan is to get more with the new engines when they are ready. I'm more concerned about the su-75.

The T-75 is a very promising platform for export. The Su-57 is an expensive aircraft, countries like Ethiopia or Myanmar cannot afford it, nor for example Iran or Vietnam in larger numbers. The T-75 will be the only Russian type suitable for export after 2030, and the management of Rostec knows this very well.

 

[NMaude]

Both Turkey and India looked at purchasing the Su-57 but as far as I know they both declined to purchase the su-57 due to technical deficiencies of the design IIRC (Plus Turkey was already in the doghouse with NATO and the US over its shortsighted purchase of the SA-21 Growler SAM system).

 

[snne]

The T-75 is a very promising platform for export. The Su-57 is an expensive aircraft, countries like Ethiopia or Myanmar cannot afford it, nor for example Iran or Vietnam in larger numbers. The T-75 will be the only Russian type suitable for export after 2030, and the management of Rostec knows this very well.

There will be a lot of competition for a share in the base export market though, and the good old CAATSA that comes with the Su-75 (or heck, any other weapon) is not worth it for most of those countries.

Both Turkey and India looked at purchasing the Su-57 but as far as I know they both declined to purchase the su-57 due to technical deficiencies of the design IIRC (Plus Turkey was already in the doghouse with NATO and the US over its shortsighted purchase of the SA-21 Growler SAM system).

@NMaude Neither Turkey nor the TurAF were ever interested in Russian aircraft and the Kaan that is in the same class as the Su-57 had been under development for quite some time back then.

India wanted a new aircraft altogether and wanted Russia to fund, develop and sell it. It didn't help when the prototypes back then didn't have AESA Radars installed either.

 

[TMA1]

Issue is there are many sources who are not official but have good street credentials or direct ties to major MICs that put out conflicting info at times. Osint bros. You follow some of these guys, Deino. Some of these types get regularly published by sources that even mainstream outlets trust.

But I agree about too much fanboying. I myself am guilty of this and will make sure to curb posting that is too speculative or personal in nature.

Edit: I had a thought that kind of required altering the original post.

 

[lancer21]

Bmpd's take on the latest Su-57 delivery.

Новые партии истребителей Су-57 и Су-35С для ВКС России

ПАО Объединенная авиастроительная корпорация (ОАК, входит в Госкорпорацию Ростех) 12 сентября 2024 года сообщило , что передало ВКС России партию новых самолетов Су-57 и Су-35С. Истребители пятого поколения Су-57 были приняты техническим составом, прошли полный цикл заводских…

bmpd.livejournal.com

 

[Deino]

Bmpd's take on the latest Su-57 delivery.

Новые партии истребителей Су-57 и Су-35С для ВКС России

ПАО Объединенная авиастроительная корпорация (ОАК, входит в Госкорпорацию Ростех) 12 сентября 2024 года сообщило , что передало ВКС России партию новых самолетов Су-57 и Су-35С. Истребители пятого поколения Су-57 были приняты техническим составом, прошли полный цикл заводских…

bmpd.livejournal.com

Care to add a translated summary?

 

[QuadroFX]

https://translate.google.com

Яндекс

Найдётся всё

translate.yandex.ru

 

[F-14ATomcat]

Boeing has a maximum takeoff weight of 9842 kg, T-75 - 25000 kg
In one picture, the Boeing is enlarged to the size of the T-75, in another on a real scale

https://translate.google.com

Яндекс

Найдётся всё

translate.yandex.ru

New batches of Su-57 and Su-35S fighters for the Russian Aerospace Forces

bmpd
September 13th, 23:11

On September 12, 2024, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC, part of the Rostec State Corporation) announced that it had transferred a batch of new Su-57 and Su-35S aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces. The fifth-generation Su-57 fighters were accepted by the technical staff, underwent a full cycle of factory tests, and were tested in various operating modes by pilots of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The aircraft flew to their home airfield.

Su572024

One of the Su-57 fighters from the first batch of aircraft of this type transferred to the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2024, built by the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant named after Yu.A. Gagarin (KnAAZ) of PJSC United Aircraft Corporation, September 2024 (c) PJSC United Aircraft Corporation

"The machines transferred to the troops are distinguished by high flight and technical characteristics, which have been appreciated by our pilots. Su-57s of the next batches are at different stages of readiness. Su-35S aircraft are also at a high stage of readiness," said Vladimir Artyakov, First Deputy Director General of Rostec State Corporation.

Today, the UAC enterprise where the fighters are manufactured is upgrading production. As part of the implementation of promising technical re-equipment projects, construction and installation work has been completed at new facilities of the flight test station. To expand serial production of the Su-57, an additional building has been erected, where the fifth-generation aircraft systems will be tested.

"The number of fifth-generation fighters entering the Russian Aerospace Forces is increasing every year. “Today, the promising fifth-generation Su-57 aviation complex is the most modern frontline aviation aircraft in Russia,” said UAC CEO Yuri Slyusar.

On the part of bmpd, we would like to point out that, thus, the Russian Aerospace Forces have received the first batch of Su-57 fighters in 2024, manufactured by the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant named after Yuri Gagarin (KnAAZ) of UAC. This batch is a continuation of the contract concluded in June 2019 by the Russian Ministry of Defense with PJSC Sukhoi Company for the supply of a total of 76 serial Su-57 fighters to the Armed Forces (including the first two aircraft separately contracted in 2018), with the contract execution period ending in 2027. As usual, in UAC reports, starting in 2022, the number of aircraft delivered is not disclosed, and the tail numbers of the fighters in the official photo and video materials distributed are retouched.

Judging by the video, the Su-57 fighters of the first batch of 2024 have red tail numbers. According to unofficial reports, the transferred batch included three aircraft.

According to known information, by the beginning of 2024, 22 serial Su-57 fighters were built under this contract, of which, after the loss of the lead one on December 24, 2019, at the final stage of the factory tests, the Russian Aerospace Forces received 21 aircraft. In particular, KnAAZ transferred four Su-57 aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2020-2021, and six more in 2022 (two in May and four in December), and 11 Su-57 aircraft in 2023 (in two batches in September and December).

As for the batch of Su-35S fighters indicated in the report (regarding the fact of delivery of which to the Aerospace Forces, however, there is obvious ambiguity in the UAC press release), this should already be the third batch of Su-35S in 2024, transferred by KnAAZ to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Earlier, it was reported that two batches of these aircraft were transferred in April and May 2024.

Presumably, the Su-35S fighters now transferred were manufactured under the fourth contract concluded by UAC in 2021 for the supply of Su-35S aircraft to the Russian Ministry of Defense. It is possible that this contract includes 24 aircraft with delivery by 2024. Presumably, the first four fighters under this contract were delivered to the VKS in December 2022 and, apparently, had blue tail numbers "04", "05", "06" and "07". Also, presumably, 12 Su-35S aircraft were delivered in 2023 under this contract.

Before that, under three previous contracts in 2009, 2015 and 2020, the Russian VKS received 104 serial Su-35S aircraft from 2012 to 2022, and taking into account the aircraft delivered under the new contract in 2022 and 2023, by the beginning of 2024, the VKS received 120 serial Su-35S.

Новые партии истребителей Су-57 и Су-35С для ВКС России

ПАО Объединенная авиастроительная корпорация (ОАК, входит в Госкорпорацию Ростех) 12 сентября 2024 года сообщило , что передало ВКС России партию новых самолетов Су-57 и Су-35С. Истребители пятого поколения Су-57 были приняты техническим составом, прошли полный цикл заводских…

bmpd.livejournal.com

 

[Ainen]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diZfcm3IJ1U


New from Millenium 7. Excellent summary.

 

[Life of Tyo]

Another Su-57 Serial on winter 2023 on russia aviation magazine

Авиация и космонавтика №4 2023 - Почитаем

Новый номер журнала Авиация и космонавтика №4 2023.В этом номере:Новости авиации.И многое другое в свежем номере журнала "Авиация и космонавтика".

pochitaem.su

 

[AGS-1787]

They sure know how to make pretty airplanes.

 

[F-14ATomcat]

They sure know how to make pretty airplanes.

like any country there are cute and ugly designs, made by Russia from my personal perspective, however Su-57 should be a powerful performer, in that its beauty delivers a good aircraft, well balance, but like any war machine nothings matters until it shows in combat its effectiveness

 

[Ainen]

like any country there are cute and ugly designs, made by Russia from my personal perspective, however Su-57 should be a powerful performer, in that its beauty delivers a good aircraft, well balance, but like any war machine nothings matters until it shows in combat its effectiveness

Even current Kh-69s use seems to be annoying; Kh-59MAs weren't anywhere near equal to SCALPs (it isn't even a purpose-made cruise missile), but 69 appears to be more than a match.

 

[Nicolas10]

The Su 57 has already shown more than the F22 despite there being 24 samples produced. But oh well.

 

[paralay]

In 2023, it was planned to release 7 fighters, and 10 were made...

 

[AGS-1787]

How many su-27 they built initially? Wasn’t the su-27 roll out slow too?

 

[Sundog]

The problem is Russia is fighting a war and their economy is hurting bad as a result, so they can't just build Su-57's at the drop of a hat. Besides, for the war they're fighting, the Su-57 isn't what they really need right now. Unless they're running out of planes to launch missiles, lol.

 

[paralay]

What makes you think that Russia has "unsolvable problems"? Priorities have changed, yes

 

[NMaude]

so they can't just build Su-57's at the drop of a hat.

I don't think that Russia has much of a problem building the Su-57 airframes and engines, IMO what's holding things up are the international sanctions severely restricting access to advanced western electronic technology which means Russia has difficulty building the Su-57's avionics and the Su-57 isn't much good without its' avionics.

What makes you think that Russia has "unsolvable problems"?

Russia has intractable demographic and economic problems which are getting worse and Putin's highly ill-advised Ukrainian "Adventure" is making things worse in the long term.

 

[Ainen]

The problem is Russia is fighting a war and their economy is hurting bad as a result,

We already heard how it is in ruins back in 2022, and it produced nothing but lots of backfiring stupidity.
In retrospect I myself thought the same, of course, but I am no economist. And actual economists at the head of global order had no better understanding of system they inherited than I did. Which is quite damning.

This tune is just out of touch with reality.

Russia has intractable demographic and economic problems which are getting worse

Most of the whole global north has all the same problems. Russian ones aren't exactly the worst.

Like, check growth projections, and how you're run from thread to thread yourself with ideas on how to reverse what appears to be inevitable with yet another game-changing wunderwaffe.

As a matter of fact, su-57 production grows.

 

[NMaude]

Most of the whole global north has all the same problems.

Not to the extent of Russia's problems.

Russian ones aren't exactly the worst.

The only country that's in worse position is the PRC.

Like, check growth projections, and how you're run from thread to thread yourself with ideas on how to reverse what appears to be inevitable with yet another game-changing wunderwaffe.

What?

As a matter of fact, su-57 production grows.

Then why aren't we seeing the Russian airforce them in combat over Ukraine?

 

[Ainen]

Not to the extent of Russia's problems.

Please check the numbers.
The Russian economy is growing and growing faster than ever since 2007(!). And while it's popular to say that it's just a temporary result of MIC spending - unrelated industries grow fast, too.
The simpler explanation is that the Russian economy was simply severely underinvested since 2014. Now, due to the brilliant success of the 2022 sanctions, huge Russian resource income has to be invested within the country and not in the West.
I don't know what else can be done about this self-calming bubble about how everything is good, and that Russia will collapse the day after tomorrow. Neither it nor Ukraine will collapse like that.

Russian demography is meh, but rather average meh (and in Eastern Europe, Russia together with Poland are the only two countries that don't count as complete losers). But, those statistics don't count in Crimea and annexed regions, nor do they count in refugee inflow from Ukraine. Same with Russian birth etc metrics - they are not good, but again - they're a rather average level of bad.
The actual Russian population(as an administrative unit) is ironically higher than ever, even if it wasn't the highest population for the whole territory.
If the idea is that war kills off the Russian population - well, no, from what can be gathered, losses in Ukraine are below the car crash death rate. Granted, they're on top of that - but that won't be a breaker.

What?

Check your post history. Every second recent thread in aerospace about x has your "can we give x to Ukraine".
It isn't talk coming from the winning side. The winning side doesn't run around like that.
Please don't take it as a personal attack - you're looking for a solution to a problem, and you do the same thing Western governments do.
It's just admitting that the problem is here, and it appears that there are no solutions other than risking major escalation.
At the current pace, war is unwinnable for Ukraine, and the only way it can change is for Russia to somehow suddenly collapse. Which, granted, Russia is quite famous in XXth century, but it's still but a prayer for a wonder.

Then why aren't we seeing the Russian airforce them in combat over Ukraine?

Well,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1839018238530781668

View: https://x.com/war_monitor_ua/status/1839018238530781668
" 1x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles in the direction of Odesa!Launched by Su-57 from the Western coast of Crimea."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1839011922768703970

View: https://x.com/war_monitor_ua/status/1839011922768703970
"Activity of tactical aviation in the waters of the Sea of Azov.3x Su-57.Crimea movement vector.The threat of the application of CAR for the Mykolaiv and Odesa regions."

5 hours ago.

 

[Anduriel]

IMO what's holding things up are the international sanctions severely restricting access to advanced western electronic technology which means Russia has difficulty building the Su-57's avionics and the Su-57 isn't much good without its' avionics.

This is definitely not an issue. Because:
1. China
2. Maximum self-reliance for most important military programmes, to whom Su-57 belongs to
3. Electronic components usually ordered in big batches. It's cheaper and negates bottleneck in manufacturing, compared if you getting stuff on demand. For example, Russia still didn't sold all of its Elbrus processors that TSMC made before 2022, why it would be different here? Also I remind you american chips stuffed into disposable things luke missiles, drones and whatnot. That became even more abundant when Russian MIC ramped up. If they don't experience problems there, why would they do here, in one of theirs most important military programmes?
4. Main limiter of production would be either subcontractors, amount of manpower available (Russians themselves admit that they experience significant shortage of workers in the industry) and internal competition with Su-35, which is more than enough for current tasks at battlefield and has already established and ramped production cycle.

 

[Ainen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843191471635087444

View: https://x.com/war_monitor_ua/status/1843191471635087444

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843193133443494129

View: https://x.com/war_monitor_ua/status/1843193133443494129


Iirc, first confirmed bombing by su-57(2x2 bomb runs)

 

[Elysium]

Honestly I also don't understand the component sanctions argument - Imagine the entire Su-57 production run will consist of 2000 planes - an optimistic estimate. Let's say each plane needs 5 pieces of a particular microprocessor, and you buy 3x as much - that's still just 15k units, something that wouldn't even register on the scale on which typical consumer electronics like car ECUs or smartphones are made.
These stockpiles need to exist anyway - I seem to recall a story where LM found out some of the chips that go into the F-22 simply aren't made anymore, and they ended up buying some used telco equipment and had to scavenge the chips from there.
My primary concern would be someone inflitrating the supply chain, and Russian equipment getting pager'd.

 

[stealthflanker]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843191471635087444

View: https://x.com/war_monitor_ua/status/1843191471635087444

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843193133443494129

View: https://x.com/war_monitor_ua/status/1843193133443494129


Iirc, first confirmed bombing by su-57(2x2 bomb runs)

I always curious how do they know it's Su-57 ? It feels like WW II where Allied soldier calling all German tanks they encounter as Tiger or at early Russo-Ukraine war where Russian soldiers call every drones TB-2.

 

[NovaGA]

Most of Russian airfields are located in or near small villages/towns. Akhtubinsk as a very good example. 57 obviously produces a very recognizable sound.
It is not hard for Ukrainians to find an individual in such town or village who is willing to report them any jet sounds he hears for a sum of money.

 

[Forest Green]

Bad news for Putin: Su-57 ‘Felon’ 5G stealth fighter production is all but crippled

Putin’s air force still has only a handful of fifth generation planes

www.telegraph.co.uk

https://twitter.com/x/status/1844473171145080967

View: https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1844473171145080967

 

[NovaGA]

Bad news for Putin: Su-57 ‘Felon’ 5G stealth fighter production is all but crippled

Putin’s air force still has only a handful of fifth generation planes

www.telegraph.co.uk

https://twitter.com/x/status/1844473171145080967

View: https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1844473171145080967

I don’t get it.
The production has been growing after the sanctions were imposed.
11 - 12 were delivered in 2023 in two bunches: one smaller of four(or three if you believe BMPD) in September and one bigger in December.
Situation in 2024 seems to be the same, 3 in September and potentially bigger bunch in December. If Russians can waste microchips and circuits to put them into cruise missiles, they surely can find some for Su-57.

 

[Geo]

I don’t get it.
The production has been growing after the sanctions were imposed.
11 - 12 were delivered in 2023 in two bunches: one smaller of four(or three if you believe BMPD) in September and one bigger in December.
Situation in 2024 seems to be the same, 3 in September and potentially bigger bunch in December. If Russians can waste microchips and circuits to put them into cruise missiles, they surely can find some for Su-57.

On the one hand an "article", on the other objective numbers. Take your pick.