Assuming the South Koreans haven't already secretly started the necessary R&D I wonder how it will be before they decide to design, build, test and manufacture their own nuclear-warheads for their ballistic missiles?
 
Assuming the South Koreans haven't already secretly started the necessary R&D I wonder how it will be before they decide to design, build, test and manufacture their own nuclear-warheads for their ballistic missiles?
I expect that they have designed and tested implosion lenses already. Those are only a couple hundred lbs of HE or even less, it'd be nearly impossible to detect that small a blast seismically mixed in among all the other live-fire events they have. As long as they've gotten good compression, I don't believe it'll take long at all to manufacture pits.

They have a breeder reactor and I believe engage in fuel reprocessing for the reactors that produce plutonium. RoK does have 4x CANDU reactors, though, which are not useful for weapons production due to negligible plutonium production in the CANDU design.

But I am assuming that the reprocessed fuel is readily convertible into pits. I believe it is, but don't know for sure. If I did know for sure, I wouldn't be able to say so.

I'd legitimately guess first pits within 6 months from the RoK government saying "go". Maybe less, depending on how much work it takes to go from stockpiled reprocessed fuel to pits.
 
I expect that they have designed and tested implosion lenses already.

I hadn't thought of that but you are right as such a wealthy first-world country would easily be able to design and test in secret the non-nuclear parts of a nuclear warhead.

They have a breeder reactor and I believe engage in fuel reprocessing for the reactors that produce plutonium

If the South Koreans are engaging in a highly covert nuclear-weapons programme and they are not in a rush then I can see them after they've separated out the Plutonium from spent reactor fuel-rods putting the Plutonium through an isotopic separation process to get pure Pu-239.

Talking about isotopic separation I wonder if they'd do the same to build up a stockpile of Li6D for any thermonuclear designs they might have?
 
Talking about isotopic separation I wonder if they'd do the same to build up a stockpile of Li6D for any thermonuclear designs they might have?
They already need a source of heavy water for their CANDU reactors.

And Li6D is long-term stable, so it may actually be a preferred method of storing deuterium!
 
And Li6D is long-term stable, so it may actually be a preferred method of storing deuterium!

A good point! If they did do such a thing then in addition to a stable storage medium for Deuterium all that left over lithium-7 could be used for making Lithium-ion/polymer batteries in addition to storing Deuterium.
 
Fotos courtesy of Bemil and Yeonhap News Agency. It's a properly massive missile with fittingly huge TEL. It seems like it was no exaggeration when the information came out that this missile is almost the size of an ICBM and could potentially reach IRBM ranges.

PYH2024100101650001300_P4.jpg
another image alongside older Hyunmoo ballistic missiles. You could see the differences in the TEL cab as well.
 

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I think the recent airstrikes carried out by Israel that took out Hezbollah leaders really showcased the potential of decapitation strategy, which the newer Hyunmoo missiles, especially the Hyunmoo-V is envisioned for. I think strategic deterrence through conventional weaponary might even work against a special regime like DRPK. So to speak, Hyunmoo-V is truly a special kind of a ballistic missile meant for an unordinary situation.

Reportedly, Israel dropped several BLU-109 based JDAMs (most probably GBU-31(V)3/B) pinpoint to reach the depths required to take Hezbollah leaders out, but it probably wouldn't require more than 2 Hyunmoo-V to do the same job.
 
Since it is allegedly a 2-stage missile, I think it's closer to 9K716 Volga on steroids.

I just tried to look up that missile and I can't find any entry for it on the wikipedia, do you have a link to an article about it?
 
I just tried to look up that missile and I can't find any entry for it on the wikipedia, do you have a link to an article about it?
Not the best of sources, but some quick search got me these :
 
Fotos courtesy of Bemil and Yeonhap News Agency. It's a properly massive missile with fittingly huge TEL. It seems like it was no exaggeration when the information came out that this missile is almost the size of an ICBM and could potentially reach IRBM ranges.

View attachment 742689
another image alongside older Hyunmoo ballistic missiles. You could see the differences in the TEL cab as well.
"Almost"? I'd bet $10k it's far larger than Sentinel. Hell, we should probably have South Korea build our ICBM at this point. Would not be at all surprised if it were related somehow to that fat solid motor South Korea tested years ago.


 
Fotos courtesy of Bemil and Yeonhap News Agency. It's a properly massive missile with fittingly huge TEL. It seems like it was no exaggeration when the information came out that this missile is almost the size of an ICBM and could potentially reach IRBM ranges.

View attachment 742689
another image alongside older Hyunmoo ballistic missiles. You could see the differences in the TEL cab as well.
I think this was just an excuse to research ICBM tech.
 
ICBM in size. Traded range for trow weight.
9 tons worth of warhead. If they use thermobarics or Assault Breaker style dispensers then it's RIP for Nork armour forces. Heck, how about lofting the missile at low altitude with downward-ejecting nukes. Pluto SLAM on the cheap.
 
Well, if they replace 8-ton warhead with additional stage & smaller warhead, it may be perfectly possible.
But again, why? The South Koreans don't need to hit targets more than 1000km away if we include Beijing.

I bet that if they MIRVed this, it'd be to carry multiple bunker busters, ~3x 5000lb for example, or 6x 2000lb.
 
9 tons worth of warhead. If they use thermobarics or Assault Breaker style dispensers then it's RIP for Nork armour forces. Heck, how about lofting the missile at low altitude with downward-ejecting nukes. Pluto SLAM on the cheap.
This missile will specifically use unitary bunker buster munition. It's primary role is to decapitate Kim and his cronies hiding deep inside North Korean bunkers.

Thermobaric and submunition dispensing warheads are used in earlier, smaller Hyunmoos. In terms of operational flexibility as well as managing escalation threats, using Hyunmoo-V for tactical purposes wouldn't be all that wise.

But again, why? The South Koreans don't need to hit targets more than 1000km away if we include Beijing.

I bet that if they MIRVed this, it'd be to carry multiple bunker busters, ~3x 5000lb for example, or 6x 2000lb.
One reason could be strategic deterrence against China. They've got lots and lots of dams, including Three Gorges. They say these dams were design and built to withstand possible hostile attacks, but I'm not sure if such hostil attack also includes a several-tonne heavy purpose-built bunker buster ballistic missile warhead impacting on supersonic or even hypersonic speeds.

Ain't got no nukes but there are other ways to create nuke level casualties. I bet this is also what Taiwan wants in their hands, and the reports for the last decade or so has been that they are developing their own capabilities similar to Hyunmoo-IV and V. Though their progress is quite slow in comparison.
 
But again, why? The South Koreans don't need to hit targets more than 1000km away if we include Beijing.

I bet that if they MIRVed this, it'd be to carry multiple bunker busters, ~3x 5000lb for example, or 6x 2000lb.

Moscow is almost 7,000 km away; and Russia has been increasingly collaborating with North Korea in strategic matters.
 
But again, why? The South Koreans don't need to hit targets more than 1000km away if we include Beijing.

I bet that if they MIRVed this, it'd be to carry multiple bunker busters, ~3x 5000lb for example, or 6x 2000lb.
Almost all north Korean infrastructure has underground doubles.
Really significant infrastructure is built in mountains, because digging sideways is magic, both easier and often comes with suitable geology.

Need is obviously there, but realistically I don't think it's going to be enough for decapitating strike, unless it's a first strike on Pyongyang. Even hypersonic 10t penetrator may not be enough, plus lofted trajectory takes time.

DPRK is really well dug in.
Moscow is almost 7,000 km away; and Russia has been increasingly collaborating with North Korea in strategic matters.
It won't be of much use against Russia without nuclear tip.
I personally still think it's mostly for DPRK, at most Beijing.
 
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Yeah but there is a little russian port right around the corner which if attacked would hurt russia.
Vladivostok and the whole Kamchatka area would utterly cripple Russia in the Pacific.

And Kamchatka is only ~3500km. You can pack a LOT of hate 3500km with a Hyunmoo-5!
 
Vladivostok and the whole Kamchatka area would utterly cripple Russia in the Pacific.

And Kamchatka is only ~3500km. You can pack a LOT of hate 3500km with a Hyunmoo-5!
Neither Vladivostok nor Kamchatka will magically explode if you shoot at them; it's just single conventional warheads, even if powerful. It will not 'utterly cripple' region the size of US.
There are no main command centers within reach, none that matter enough (and those that do are both out of reach and completely invulnerable to this puny thing).

The best one can get is that Russian missile warning will trigger, and Pacific fleet boomers will launch counter salvo per normal procedures - i.e. at the US.
Which will probably indeed cripple Russia, but I wonder if that's what you want.

Furthermore, most of Russian Far East is within strike range of ROKAF and certainly that of ROKN, which both actually can do just that you wanted (unlike single missiles).
This it's an utterly pointless sword rattling.
Against Russia this matters when it turns into an ICBM with a nuclear warhead. But that's beyond the technical discussion.
 
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Not so long ago North Korea tested 2.5 ton heavy warhead and recently couple times of 4.5 ton.
On ballistic missiles much smaller than Hyunmoo-5 and North Korean's have Topol-esque ICBM.
If they wanted in response they could just use 1st stage of it and mount 20 ton heavy warhead.
 
Not so long ago North Korea tested 2.5 ton heavy warhead and recently couple times of 4.5 ton.
On ballistic missiles much smaller than Hyunmoo-5 and North Korean's have Topol-esque ICBM.
If they wanted in response they could just use 1st stage of it and mount 20 ton heavy warhead.
Yeah, and for what? It's not like South Korea has some supreme leader that has grip on everything going on within the country and is the centre of power who wants to hide inside a deep bunker in case there's a hot war. It'll be useless.
 
Yeah, and for what? It's not like South Korea has some supreme leader that has grip on everything going on within the country and is the centre of power who wants to hide inside a deep bunker in case there's a hot war. It'll be useless.
20 tonnes of submunitions would delete any ground-level attack.
 
Defense Updates has just uploaded a video about the Hyunmoo V:


South Korea has got a new weapon.The country displayed its Hyunmoo-5 surface-to-surface ballistic missile for the first time at a parade to mark the country's Armed Forces Day on 1 October.Images from the parade at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam revealed two nine-axle transporter erector launcher (TEL) vehicles carrying the new missiles. The military referred to the weapon as the "ultra high-power Hyunmoo ballistic missile."This is an interesting development.
In this video, Defense Updates how formidable is South Korea’s new Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile ?
Chapters:
00:11 INTRODUCTION
01:38 HYUNMOO-5 OVERVIEW
03:07 HYUNMOO-5 CAPABILITIES
06:33 ANALYSIS
 
Yeah, and for what? It's not like South Korea has some supreme leader that has grip on everything going on within the country and is the centre of power who wants to hide inside a deep bunker in case there's a hot war. It'll be useless.
South Korea also happens to have power/control nodes, that out of necessity hide in bunkers to allow access to command and communication facilities.
In case of war South Korean military is of course subordinate to US command, but that command is military, not everyone, and it is also a target.
Implication that ROK politicians are proud Spartans and want to live less than Kim is questionable, since literally all of them end up in prison for corruption after their terms. They are people, and most people in power enjoy their lives.
Not so long ago North Korea tested 2.5 ton heavy warhead and recently couple times of 4.5 ton.
On ballistic missiles much smaller than Hyunmoo-5 and North Korean's have Topol-esque ICBM.
If they wanted in response they could just use 1st stage of it and mount 20 ton heavy warhead.
The point of hm-5 is not just to lift warhead over the border, it's to slam it downwards, vertically from a lofted trajectory, piercing some very high level fortifications w/o need for nukes.

I frankly doubt it's enough, but South Koreans will know better than me.

In any case, no one wants to end up as Russia, which simply can't penetrate Soviet deep facilities because it simply didn't prepare for that.
 

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