Military Interventions in Syria and 2024 Syrian regime change

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Odd details about the events leading to the fall of Damascus started to circulate on sm. I do not know how credible they are:

Source: https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13604

'Iran warned Assad two months ago that HTS was preparing to make a move, but he dismissed the threat. So the Turkish Foreign Minister gave us assurances that nothing will take place, which turned out to be a lie. After HTS entered Western Aleppo, Iran expected Assad to ask for military assistance, and we were fully prepared to oblige with troops and whatever else was needed – but no such request came. After Aleppo fell, it became clear that Assad had no real intentions of staying in power, so we started to engage in diplomatic talks with the opposition, and arranged the safe exit of our troops from Syria. If the SAA does not fight, neither will we risk our soldiers' lives. Russia and the UAE had managed to convince him to step down, so there was nothing we could do.' – Iranian Officials
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Source: https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13605

— Some additional short bulletin points that did not fit in the post:

• Ali Larijani reportedly offered him pre-set conditions 2 weeks ago in Damascus. Bashar didn’t agree with them and even refused to meet with Larijani—Iran’s special envoy—when he returned to Damascus Friday Dec 6.

• Bashar Assad refused to open the Golan front, despite being asked to by the resistance groups.

• The Assad government, after becoming too close with the Gulf Arabs, had put a lot of restrictions on IRGCQF, this sparkled dissatisfaction.

• Ex-IRGCQF officer claimed Iran intel knew since 2 months ago that rebel groups in Idlib were up to something. He claims Iranians shared their worries with Turkey, but “Turks deceived them and assured Iranians there’s nothing to be afraid of—Should not have trusted the Turks.

• The situation in Syria has not ended and it’s going spark unrest. Especially between Kurdish SDF vs Turkish-backed rebel groups (e.g. HTS) AND inner fights among rebel groups.
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Considering these revelations, does this mean that Al Asad was indeed convinced to step down or did he simply loose contact with reality in the last two weeks of his rule? Or was he simply abandoned by Russia and Iran and now a diplomatic excuse is being promoted?
 
paralay said:
The title of the topic does not correspond to reality, Russia did not "invade", but was invited by the legitimate government
Well, Assad is in Moscow
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The topic says “interventions” not “invasions” and therefore is entirely correct regardless of the circumstances
 
And this is particularly intriguing:

Source: https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13607

— It's now widely known that Iran, Hezbollah and other Shia factions asked Assad for permission to open a front in the Golan Heights after October 7th to support the resistance in Gaza & Lebanon.

However, Assad refused, reportedly saying he did not want to drag Syria into a possible open confrontation with Israel & he did not want to risk jeopardizing his normalization progress with the Gulf States.
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But Syria has been bombed on a regular basis for years, and its military infrastructure was laid in ruins. Which more open confrontation could that be other than a full-fledged invasion, which is already ongoing?

This statement is even more intriguing:

Source: https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/13606

Channel 12, citing sources:
Israeli security services believe that Assad prevented Iranian attacks on Israel from Syrian territory
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Then, who did Asad really represent?
 
www.abc.net.au

Assad granted Russian asylum as world reacts to end of 'barbaric' regime

There have been large celebrations in major European cities after Syrian rebels ousted the country's longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au

www.abc.net.au

'The devil and his wife' ruled Syria with fear, drugs and murder

Like so many dictators before them, the Assads somehow believed they would be immune to the forces of history. And like so many dictators before them, their dreams of dynasty have seemingly ended in ruin.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
GTX said:
www.abc.net.au

Who are the Syrian rebels that have overthrown Bashar al-Assad?

The Syrian uprising has unfolded rapidly and the global community is scrambling to make sense of what has happened. We answer a few basic questions to get you up to speed.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
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Dear god! 'Where is Syria' ?!?

Compare to:

www.theguardian.com

Who are the Syrian rebels who have captured Damascus – explained in 30 seconds

The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, along with an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

TLDR: The rebels are the Turkish aligned Syrian National Army (an umbrella group), and the Islamist HTS / Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham / Organization for the Liberation of the Levant*, but HTS used to be the Al Qaeda aligned Al Nusra Front, and its founder started in Islamic State in Iraq.

* And the $1m question is which definition of the Levant they use, at a minimum the Levant includes Syria, Lebanon, and Israel + Palestine, at a maximum, everything from Greece to Egypt.
 
Favourite quote of the day is from Sergei Lavrov

www.theguardian.com

Fall of Damascus sidelines Russia and brings Turkey to the fore

As Moscow’s top diplomat reeled in Doha, his Turkish counterpart appeared to know he had the upper hand
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

At one point he was reduced by his interlocutor, James Bays from Al Jazeera, to blurting out: “If you want me to say: ‘yes we lost in Syria, we are so desperate,’ if this is what you need, let’s continue”.
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Photos of Asad with Aasma in Moscow:

t.me

Middle East Spectator

— / NEW: First picture of Assad and his wife in Moscow @Middle_East_Spectator
t.me t.me

Edit: while there are reports that Asad is already in Russia, the vid is old and not from the most recent days.
 
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Arjen said:
More than sixty years of bloody dictatorship will now be followed by ... what?
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Most likely? Disintegration of Syria. It wasn't unified in any way from the very beginning; it was essentially French colonial mandate, composed of many different nations, tribes and regions. The Syrian Arab Republic was a purely artificial construction, created basically only because there was a common administration over the whole region, and not by any real unity between its parts.
 
paralay said:
The title of the topic does not correspond to reality, Russia did not "invade", but was invited by the legitimate government
Well, Assad is in Moscow
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I have seen on the eight-hour news that Israel has bombed a major research center in Damascus... Does anyone know what the function of this center was?
 
I am not sure if the "research institute" translation is correct in that case. Most likely it was a storage for weapons that was attacked apart from the former intel HQ.

t.me

/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

❌ Israeli warplanes bombed the Mazzeh military airport near Damascus. They bombed the Passport & Immigration Office in the Syrian capital and the Research Institute. The IDF and Israeli journalists claim they are destroying weapons "preventing them from falling into the hands of terrorists"...
t.me t.me
 
Dilandu said:
Most likely? Disintegration of Syria. It wasn't unified in any way from the very beginning; it was essentially French colonial mandate, composed of many different nations, tribes and regions. The Syrian Arab Republic was a purely artificial construction, created basically only because there was a common administration over the whole region, and not by any real unity between its parts.
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From a historical point of view, the only naturally unified country in the area is Egypt.

What can be said about France's decolonisation process?: Vietnam, Algeria, Haiti, Senegal, Chad...
 
An analysis on Syria from 7 December. Almost everything came true today. It was impossible to defend Syria on several fronts at once.

threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @Partisangirl on Thread Reader App

@Partisangirl: ANALYSIS What happened in #Syria in the last few days has left many in shock, how could the Syrian army cede so much territory within a matter of days? As the fog of war settles...
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
 
Libya shows where Syria is likely to head. Lebanon has been in that place since the 70s.
Hard to see any good outcome.
Assad must be relieved to have avoided Ghaddafi's fate. He may want to avoid standing near windows or traveling by air in his new homeland.
 
I understand the desire to comment on current events, but it does go against forum rules on politics. This topic in The Bar is open for now assuming we can stay civil.
 
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@overscan (PaulMM)

I noticed that my thread on the HTS/AQ jihadi air force was merged with this thread, which by the way also changed its title. Now, the topic is blurred and messy.
Can the former change be reverted as there are indications that the HTS is going to utilize the aircraft seized from the former SAA? I think that the HTS/AQ jihadi aviation should be separated from the Russian/US military interventions in Syria.
 
yahya said:
Here are some interesting observations on the outcome and why it has happened:




https://twitter.com/x/status/375759718251503616
View: https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/375759718251503616


This analyst posted a to the point comment:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1865614216373076157
View: https://x.com/MarkSleboda1/status/1865614216373076157

This comment does not require further elaboration.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1865604979454611838
View: https://x.com/dancohen3000/status/1865604979454611838
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Hmmm... Let's not forget that Assad was a dictator and dictators only gain power through coups in the first place, since it's not like anyone elected them.
 
yahya said:
@overscan (PaulMM)

I noticed that my thread on the HTS/AQ jihadi air force was merged with this thread, which by the way also changed its title. Now, the topic is blurred and messy.
Can the former change be reverted as there are indications that the HTS is going to utilize the aircraft seized from the former SAA? I think that the HTS/AQ jihadi aviation should be separated from the Russian/US military interventions in Syria.
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I don't see really how such speculation aligns with the forum intentions. Discussion of current wars and revolutions inevitably brings out opposing views and arguments - hence moving to The Bar. If you really think there's an interesting topic there perhaps wait for something to be reported in this area?

My intention was to limit discussions on current events in Syria to a single topic rather than the scattergun buckshot of random topics that were proliferating.

If I'm wrong, people, let me know.
 
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Forest Green said:
Hmmm... Let's not forget that Assad was a dictator and dictators only gain power through coups in the first place, since it's not like anyone elected them.
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Must we not forget that Bashshar al Asad was groomed to become the president after his father's demise also by the US and British intel. So, he was also their 'dictator.' As an ophthalmologist, who at the time worked in a London hospital, he was not interested in politics. Everybody thought in that time that his brother would became the candidate for presidency. History showed that the people were wrong in their assertions.

There were many other 'dictators' who were first groomed by the West, and when became redundant, they were trashed like a used toy.
 
An interview with the recently released inmates of the Syrian prisons and their relatives could be instructive. There are quite a lot of them. Amnesty International has published very bad news about Syrian prisons over the past decades.
 
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there are rumors that S.P.E.C.T.R.E. is in chapter eleven.
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Since 9-11-2001 a lot of supervillains have been forced into retirement. French satirical puppet show "Les Guignols" had Freddy Krueger and Darth Vader in very depressed moods. Basically saying "there is no way we can ever scare the living shit out of spectators after THIS. We are doomed."
What's worse, their professional retraining did not went well, despite their best efforts: for some obscure reasons.
:D:D:D:D:D:p:p:p
 
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