Military Interventions in Syria and 2024 Syrian regime change

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What was I saying about Har Megiddo?

Israeli airstrikes following Syrian government fire hitting Israeli territory. Syrian government release insinuated they were timed with anti Assad rebels and that Israel was in collision with them.

Link:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israel-hits-syrian-military-targets-after-errant-fire-reaches-its-side-of-the-golan-heights/2017/06/24/44d5aa98-5910-11e7-840b-512026319da7_story.html?utm_campaign=EBB%2006.26.2017&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_term=.fab0e9632595
 
Anyone want to help me add to the players? What are we up to, a 7 at conflict? Or is it 5, or 9?

Issei strikes Syrian positions for the 5th time this week.

https://youtu.be/j5sIM6B-1S4

Just the a start of a list:

Hezbollah
Iran
The Peshmerga
The PKK
Turkey
The USA
Iraqi government forces
Australia
other NATO countries
FSA(and splinter groups or whatever the Pentagon is calling the "lliance" this week)
ISIS
Assad government forces
pro-Assad paramilitary
Russia

Who's missing? Some independent Iraqi tribal groups? Anti Assad fighters not in the western alliance? Radical anti Assad forces not affiliated with ISIS?

I'm up to 15, but that's just the top of the my head, I'm certain there's at least another 5 we can find for a nice round number.
 
Peoples' Front for the Liberation of Syria...
Popular Front for the Liberation of Syria...
Front for the Popular Liberation of Syria...
Liberation Front for the People of Syria...
Front populaire pour la libération de la Syrie.

All a bunch of splitters to me... ;)
 
Where will the fetus gestate? In a box?

I'm other news (now that extra human fetus gestation is practicable);

Iran is shelling the Kurds in North Iraq. If they can marginalise the PKK the Kurds should have every aspect of western support for a state. They're about as honest and hard working as players come in the region, the West let them down again and again and they keep doing the right thing (regionally relatively speaking they're basically Sweden)...

Iranian cross border shelling in northern Iraq against the Kurds:
https://www.voanews.com/a/kurds-accuse-iran-of-cross-border-shelling-in-northern-iraq/3926867.html?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2007.05.2017&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief

Was going to put together an IRBM regional threat analysis... If anyone has any information that I might not find on Wikipedia about systems deployed by any of the countries embroiled in this clusterfluff it would be appreciated.

The Swedish open source intelligence program does a great job with their Russia watch and I'm thinking of contacting them.

I think if it's not a bad "accidental" shoot down, then it will be a ballistic missile laugh that turns this low intensity conflict into WW2.5.

Not that anyone is watching what the Chinese are doing in the straight or what the North Koreans are doing at the moment...
 
Good to know the tillerman is stearing the ship.
From FP's morning Roundup:

Tillerson Ready to Let Russia Decide Assad’s Fate: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told the U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres during a private State Department meeting last week that Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad’s fate now lies in Russia’s hands, in a scoop from FP’s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer. Tillerson’s assurances to Guterres could signal the Trump administration’s willingness to let Russia decide Syria’s fate while it gets tunnel vision on defeating ISIS.
 
another event? its boring about time. https://tass.com/defense/1357773

MOSCOW, November 3. /TASS/. Two F-16 Israeli tactical fighter jets delivered a missile strike from the Golan Heights at Syrian government army’s logistics support facilities. No one was hurt, Vadim Kulit, deputy chief of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, said on Wednesday.

"At about 02:00 a.m. on November 3, two F-16 tactical fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force delivered a missile strike from the area of the Golan Heights, outside Syria’s airspace, at logistics support facilities of the Syrian government forces near the settlement of al-Qiswa in the Damascus governorate," he said.

According to Kulit, the strike incurred insignificant material damage. "No losses among Syrian servicemen were reported," he added.

He also said that members of the pseudo-humanitarian organization White Helmets are plotting another provocation in Syria’s Idlib governorate. "The Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties has received data that members of the pseudo-humanitarian organization White Helmets are plotting a provocation with an aim of accusing government forces of delivering indiscriminate strikes at civilian facilities and civilians," he said.

According to Kulit, people are being recruited in the settlement of Kafr Kermin and Sarmada in the Idlib governorate to take part in fake a fake video report. "It is planned to engage English-language reporters, who have arrived in the Idlib de-escalation zone to highlight the provocation," he added.

Apart from that, he said that four shelling attacks from positions of the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra (outlawed in Russia) were reported from the Idlib de-escalation zone during the past day.

The Russian reconciliation center continues to fulfill assigned tasks after the completion of the military campaign in Syria. The center’s officers regularly travel around the country's liberated areas to assess the humanitarian situation. The main efforts of the Russian military are now focused on assistance to the refugees returning to their homes and evacuation of civilians from de-escalation zones.
 
With the likely failure of the Iran nuclear deal and the specter of deepened Russian-Iranian defense cooperation, Iran’s threat to U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq as well as the threat posed to Israel by Iranian elements in Syria should now be addressed more comprehensively. The U.S. Central Command’s evolving counter-drone efforts could form the leading edge of a more robust response to this evolving threat.

warontherocks.com

Ukraine’s Consequences Are Finally Spreading to Syria - War on the Rocks

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is reverberating more than 1,000 miles away in Syria. Squeezed by its strategic blunder, Moscow’s shrinking strategic
warontherocks.com
 
There are reports from Syria suggesting that the HTS/AQ jihadi forces seized the Kuweires Air Base near Aleppo and seized at least three L-39 jets and drones belonging to Syrian Arab Air Force. Will they use them against the government forces?

t.me

Cyberspec News

Jihadis at the Kweires airbase near Aleppo have seized a large arsenal of the Syrian army...a sample of the trophies
t.me t.me
 
yahya said:
There are reports from Syria suggesting that the HTS/AQ jihadi forces seized the Kuweires Air Base near Aleppo and seized at least three L-39 jets and drones belonging to Syrian Arab Air Force. Will they use them against the government forces?

t.me

Cyberspec News

Jihadis at the Kweires airbase near Aleppo have seized a large arsenal of the Syrian army...a sample of the trophies
t.me t.me
Click to expand...

The chances that they have the skills needed to operate or maintain the L-39s are near zero.

Drones seem more likely, depending on how sophisticated they are.
 
As @TomS pointed out it's very unlikely that this bunch of religious-fanatics have either men trained to fly them or to maintain them.
 
If I am not mistaken, in the previous episodes of ISIS/An-Nusra/AQ militancy in Syria before 2018, I think, the militants were allegedly able to use the captured aircraft.

This press article showed up during a quick search:

www.dailymail.co.uk

Does ISIS have an airforce? Terrorist pilots said to be in training

The terror group are understood to have been carrying out test flights the captured al-Jarrah military airport east of Aleppo, according to an organisation monitoring the Syrian Civil War.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
 
yahya said:
If I am not mistaken, in the previous episodes of ISIS/An-Nusra/AQ militancy in Syria before 2018, I think, the militants were allegedly able to use the captured aircraft.

This press article showed up during a quick search:

www.dailymail.co.uk

Does ISIS have an airforce? Terrorist pilots said to be in training

The terror group are understood to have been carrying out test flights the captured al-Jarrah military airport east of Aleppo, according to an organisation monitoring the Syrian Civil War.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
Click to expand...

Yes, but that was a very different era, when ISIS had vastly more resources than the current version.
 
If the government in Damascus is cut off from the coast, the Russians will have to choose between using significant resources to defend Khmeimim and staying there as they have done in Libya, or facing the political price if Russian forces are driven out of the Mediterranean for the third time: Barcelona November 1938, Egypt July 1972...
www.telegraph.co.uk

Pictured: How Russia is expanding its military foothold in Africa

Telegraph analysis of air bases in Libya found military transport planes, upgraded runways, bolstered perimeter defences and new buildings
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
 
There are also reports of Rebels entering Damascus...

It's over. I doubt that they can even make a stand in Latakia now...
 
Have the Russians abandoned Asad? It seems that Damascus is encircled and will have fallen by tomorrow to the rebels.
 
yahya said:
Have the Russians abandoned Asad? It seems that Damascus is encircled and will have fallen by tomorrow to the rebels.
Click to expand...

I think they're focused on protecting their Black Sea access right now.
 
In_A_Dream said:
I think they're focused on protecting their Black Sea access right now.
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Damascus has fallen overnight. The resistance was next to none, but it's difficult to imagine that after the two decades of aerial bombing and internal strife the SAA could have been capable of resisting the jihadi advance.

It seems that the Russians have clearly sacrificed Al Asad. Will they really hold their naval base at Tartus and the Humaymim airbase then, or will these share the fate of Damascus?

The IDF entered the buffer zone and clashes with the militants near Quneitra were reported. I wonder if the IDF will tolerate the jihadis at the doorstep.

I presume that now the clashes between the Turkish-backed militants vs. the Kurdish-controlled and oil-rich region may take place. Turkey (along with her overlords) has a long history of looting Syrian oil.

There are also calls from the former SAA officers to keep Syria united to avoid the Balkanization of the country. But can ISIS re-emerge? The jihadis released many ISIS warlords from Syrian prisons. Will the chaos spread into Lebanon and Iraq, too?

Will Russia finally realize her strategic mistakes?
 
Here are some interesting observations on the outcome and why it has happened:


During and after its fight against takfiri terrorists Syria had come under heavy sanctions. Its main assets in the east were under U.S. control. Israel's airforce was bombing its military infrastructure at will. It was ripe to fall.

As soon as the bogus ceasefire in Lebanon was signed Turkey unleashed its takfiri 'Syrian rebels', many of them foreigners, against Syria. These were exceptionally well armed and trained. They have (vid) night vision equipment, drones, artillery, Starlink communication and a capable, professional command.

The Syrian Arab army proved to be unreliable. Some units just vanished. Others were ordered to retreat in haste even before coming under pressure. One wonders how much of its command level has been infiltrated or bribed.

Throughout the last months Syria's allies, Iran and Russia, had sought to negotiate a compromise between the opposition and the Assad government. In the end they were unable to overcome the stubbornness of Bashar Assad. They perceived that they were being drawn into a trap and rejected to fall for it.

Syria is now likely to fall apart. There will be many bloody acts retributions. A large number of people will seek refuge.

The 'axis of resistance' has lost its main connecting rod. Logistics between Iran and Lebanon will become very difficult.

Resistance however will continue.
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https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/375759718251503616

This analyst posted a to the point comment:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1865614216373076157
View: https://x.com/MarkSleboda1/status/1865614216373076157

This comment does not require further elaboration.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1865604979454611838
View: https://x.com/dancohen3000/status/1865604979454611838
 
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Russia kept Bashar in the saddle after the Arab Spring.
Russia has its hands full in Ukraine, so military support for Bashar fell away when Bashar needed it most.
yahya said:
And the President - Elect stated what is obvious:
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Disagree. Too many other factors in play.
 
I fear you might be right. Wait and see.
More than sixty years of bloody dictatorship will now be followed by ... what?
 
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Considering that the IDF has launched an op from the Golan heights to secure the border and the IAF is bombing the stockpiles of former SAA weapons to prevent their seizure by the militants (perhaps having the chem weapons particularly in mind), I am not sure if Israel has fully controlled the recent developments in Syria.

If chaos is to emerge in Syria just like in Iraq after 2003 and in Libya after 2011, it can as well split into neighboring countries, like Lebanon, Iraq and even Jordan. The further Balkanization of Syria is very likely to happen next. Will the UN be involved in its prevention? Doubtful.

Everybody knows from where the militants started their advances toward Damascus. Without the thorough training, equipment, coordination and support by the external players their success would be minimal at most. Many of these militants are not even the Arabs. Calling them mercenaries seems more appropriate if not the assets of certain world powers.

As for Russia, their pressure on Al Asad to negotiate with the Russia-approved opposition (albeit still unspecified) was generally missed by the mainstream. Maybe Al Asad was misled by his advisors and intel and belied to have retained some fighting capability just as it happened in the Berlin bunker in 1945? Perhaps, given that another "front" is being opened against Russia in Georgia, then Moscow decided to focus on the Ukraine war, and sacrificed Al Asad.
 
As I pointed out above, I do not know exactly who these groups were supposed to be. If such negotiations between Syria and Syria's former backers were indeed ongoing for months, somehow I must have overlooked them in the media. The current developments showed merely that Russia and Iran did not manage to convince Al Asad to change his policy. Unless this was just an excuse. Then, there must have been a very big deal between the West and the East, which involved the sacrificing Al Asad.

Note that around last Thursday it became quite obvious that Russia and Iran abandoned Al Asad. The circumstances of such a change in policy requires more research as more details will certainly emerge soon. I have no idea why Al Asad decided to stand up given that the SAA has disintegrated and consisted last week of only two divisions, which meant nothing on the real battlefield.
 
yahya said:
Damascus has fallen overnight. The resistance was next to none, but it's difficult to imagine that after the two decades of aerial bombing and internal strife the SAA could have been capable of resisting the jihadi advance.

It seems that the Russians have clearly sacrificed Al Asad. Will they really hold their naval base at Tartus and the Humaymim airbase then, or will these share the fate of Damascus?

The IDF entered the buffer zone and clashes with the militants near Quneitra were reported. I wonder if the IDF will tolerate the jihadis at the doorstep.

I presume that now the clashes between the Turkish-backed militants vs. the Kurdish-controlled and oil-rich region may take place. Turkey (along with her overlords) has a long history of looting Syrian oil.

There are also calls from the former SAA officers to keep Syria united to avoid the Balkanization of the country. But can ISIS re-emerge? The jihadis released many ISIS warlords from Syrian prisons. Will the chaos spread into Lebanon and Iraq, too?

Will Russia finally realize her strategic mistakes?
Click to expand...
Sic semper tyrannis - well, lots of times, anyway...
 
Arjen said:
Who are they? Somehow I doubt that, whoever they are, talks between them and the Assad regime would have changed anything.
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In my opinion, the fall of the regime is not going to change the situation of the Russian bases in Syria. The Russians will simply benefit from balkanization by supporting some groups of insurgents against others using money and weapons as they have always done... and the bases will remain there, as has happened in Libya after the fall of Gaddafi.

What worries me personally is the fate of our sister countries Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua when a new wave of repression begins to avoid disaffection after Russia's loss of credibility.

It will be bad times for everyone.
 
It is unfortunate that the "Balkanization" of Syria is likely the next phase. To many competing external agencies and philosophies. No doubt the Russians are looking for ways to keep the Mediterranean coast, Turkey is looking for a place to move refugees and reduce the Kurdish influence, Israel and Jordan looking for buffers. the United States will likely significantly reduce its presence and let it burn. Lets not forget energy and mineral multinationals wanting to secure rights to "help" the new government regain it's fiancial footing.

Bismark is likely kicking and screaming to get out of the ground.
 
yasotay said:
It is unfortunate that the "Balkanization" of Syria is likely the next phase. To many competing external agencies and philosophies. No doubt the Russians are looking for ways to keep the Mediterranean coast, Turkey is looking for a place to move refugees and reduce the Kurdish influence, Israel and Jordan looking for buffers. the United States will likely significantly reduce its presence and let it burn. Lets not forget energy and mineral multinationals wanting to secure rights to "help" the new government regain it's fiancial footing.

Bismark is likely kicking and screaming to get out of the ground.
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It is Turkey's great opportunity to gain reputation among the Muslim countries in the area, if it supports and gets a stable government in part of Syria it will maintain the pulse with Israel and gain access to the huge pocket of underwater hydrocarbons that is located off the coast of Cyprus.
 
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