Military Interventions in Syria and 2024 Syrian regime change

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Interesting.

Does anyone have information on the types of bombs used? I have information for a number of NATO delivery systems, but the data seems to be sparser for the Soviet Union.

Arian said:
Avimimus said:
From you're comment I assume you are privy to their information though and can make clear deductions from it?
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No of course not. So I'll differ to those who do. The rest is just pointless (and dangerous, as can be seen) speculation.
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Aha. Well, I try not to make it a habit to automatically deffer to foreign governments.
 
starviking said:
Kadija_Man said:
sferrin said:
Grey Havoc said:
If it does turn out that the Russians and Syrians were actually telling the truth about that chemical attack, all hell will break lose.
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Seems like a dumb thing to lie about. It's not as though it can't be verified.
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It smacks of not being a military planned operation. The report was that a rocket was fired which contained the CW agent. The military tends to believe in the use of firepower and would have fired multiple rockets in order to saturate an area with sufficient strength of Sarin to overcome any defences/shelter that the target might have had...
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We would have to factor in how many chemical munitions the Su-22 can carry. Additionally, looking at the response a 'small' attack has had, a large attack might have drawn a more serious response. Assad was likely 'testing the waters'.
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Possible and he has now had his fingers burnt by the US response. As a Syrian suggested on the TV News Downunder last night, "So, it's OK to kill Syrians with guns, artillery, bombs but not with nerve gas?"

One bomb/rocket is unusual. It won't provide sufficient concentrations of gas over a large enough area to be effective, according to my manuals on CW use (admittedly they are over 50 years old). CW usage is large quantities quickly to achieve high concentrations before they disperse. This just doesn't smack very well of the use of CW by a military force...
 
Was the Assad regime similarly testing the waters when it dropped barrel bombs filled with chlorine gas on Aleppo in 2016? Human Rights Watch documented government helicopters dropping chlorine in residential areas on at least eight occasions between November 17 and December 13, 2016. The dropping of chlorine bombs on the towns of Talmenes in April 2014 and Sarmin in March 2015? Where were the airstrikes and international condemnation then? Seems to me that President Bashar al-Assad expected the international community to continue to do nothing concerning the use of chemical weapons by Syrian forces. Why should he have expected 59 TLAMs for the use of sarin gas on the rebel-held city of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province? Why would any reasonable person believe that this incident was a false flag knowing the history of atrocities perpetrated by the Assad regime?
 
Triton said:
Why would any reasonable person believe...
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That might be the issue, though. Assuming reasonable people are the ones who believe such things.
 
the last week started with Trump declaring Esad was a brother, but the federal status of Kurds would be accepted when Rakka fell . Syrians said can not do . There was the crime , there were the missiles . A Turkish scholar in Damascus said on the Voice of Russia said Syrians were ready accept whatever financial gains the US wanted but the federal thing can not do . Now , chemicals are barrel bombs are both "banned" . Give land to Kurds and Esad would be the greatest leader on earth , succesfully fighting Jihadist ranks .
 
hmm ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlorine#Use_as_a_weapon

'Chlorine gas was also used during the Iraq War in Anbar Province in 2007, with insurgents packing truck bombs with mortar shells and chlorine tanks. The attacks killed two people from the explosives and sickened more than 350. Most of the deaths were caused by the force of the explosions rather than the effects of chlorine since the toxic gas is readily dispersed and diluted in the atmosphere by the blast. In some bombings, over a hundred civilians were hospitalized due to breathing difficulties. The Iraqi authorities tightened security for elemental chlorine, which is essential for providing safe drinking water to the population.[83][84]'
 
US drops MOAB on Afghanistan tunnel complex. While it is A-Stan did not feel it needed new topic

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/13/us-drops-largest-non-nuclear-bomb-in-afghanistan-after-green-beret-killed.html
 
https://www.facebook.com/Militarydotcom/videos/10154859185149270/

Video of MOAB drop
 
sferrin said:
Grey Havoc said:
If it does turn out that the Russians and Syrians were actually telling the truth about that chemical attack, all hell will break lose.
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Seems like a dumb thing to lie about. It's not as though it can't be verified.
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It is especially easy to verify when RT accidentally posts photos of binary nerve gas canisters at the airfield.
 

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The BKF canisters at Shayrat, as marked, hold the AO-2.5RT HE Frag submunitions. Dropped out of RBK-500s or KMGUs.
 
Yes those containers are for cluster munitions. They seem to be somewhat general containers, that could also hold chemical munitions. But not in this case given their markings.
 
US fighters have also shot down a few armed Syrian government drones.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/warplane-shoots-armed-drone-syria-170608232312188.html

The Kurdish issue is going to be either the hope or the never end of conflict here assuming there's no flash point between major players.

They've been stable, friendly and the Pesh have been basically reliable and stable. Problem is that Kurdistan isn't just a Iraqi and Syrian issue, the Turks have a big big problem with it, though hopefully that could just mean smaller borders. With the Turks courting outside the EU/NATO/USA it could happen, but they will work real hard to bring them back into the tent.

A stable Kurdish state backed by the West end begrudgingly allowed by Syria and Russia could be an island of peace in the region and allow the West to bypass some of the more politically fluid situations in the big players like Turkey. They'd certainly be happy to host bases for their own protection while the trend is definately going to be pulling (being pushed more like) out of many long standing places. Let's just hope the PKK don't screw it up for the Pesh.

It's going to come down to the Turkish peoples polarisation between Ataturk and Erdogan...

Based on the last 30 years alone I think the Kurds deserve it.
 
Here's a Military Times summary for a western source, first official fighter kill since Bosnia. Doesn't bode well.
http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/navy-f-a-18e-super-hornet-splashes-syrian-jet-after-it-attacks-us-allies?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2006.20.2017&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief


Edit: on a side note, the reference to advancing a US Zionist agenda and US support for terrorism in the Syrian government statement is worrying terminology. The shoot down could be the start of what everyone was hoping wouldn't happen. Going to be lots of sleepless people in the state department tonight. At the very least this is the thin edge of a scary wedge, let's hope behind the scenes the Russians are doing a better job coordinating or the next shoot down could be the big one.
 
phrenzy said:
or the next shoot down could be the big one.
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Doubt it. Many thought it was the end of the world when Turkey shot down that Russian Su-24 and now they're being offered S-400s for sale.
 
Not arguing, just caught this in an FP morning brief a few minutes ago, apparently an official Russian statement:

" Russia: Russia declared Monday it would treat U.S.-led coalition planes west of the Euphrates river in Syria as targets after the coalition downed a Syrian regime fighter jet Sunday."
 
Not exactly "bugging out". Just pausing to see what the situation is.
 
True, excuse the hyperbole.
 
Do you have a good link? Mostly wondering what they fired at who, hopefully something old against ISIS in syria is and it's the last we'll hear about it, the Iranians have been surprisingly cooperative through the whole thing even though they are fighting the West on one side and against on the other.
I'm sure it'll turn up on one of the daily bulk emails that I get loaded down with in my email but I'm tracking this and collecting sources from as close to the dates as they happen. Hopefully someone can pull some useful lessons out of the quagmire so I'm trying stay on top of who knew what when (or thoughtht they knew), what was used or the thought to be used add what the responses were in escilation/de-escalation. Might be a paper on proportional response or operations in contested Multi-state conflicts eventually.

Can't help but feel this is going to break out in Ukraine again, anyone know much of a professor Almond of the crisis research centre? (,Brit) I know I've seen the name before and I've been him give interviews most recenty on RT but I've been reading his thoughts on the situation which is seem fairly up to date, but I don't really know him or hits organisations reputation.
 
Was it this Shehab-3 launch in Deir el-Zour? The revolutionary guards are sending a pretty major signal with that... In response to a terror attack they strike with one of their premier semi strategic weapons? If they're not sending a signal for their intentions in Iraq after this fight is over I don't know what they're thinking, they're already causing a headache over the nuclear deal and obviously from the article below they've got Israeli attention in a big way. If Israeli intelligence is briefing the media they're trying to pull levers in other places. The Iranian's are looking for this attention but with everything that's happening I don't quite get why.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-launches-missile-strike-into-syria-for-tehran-attacks/
 
http://www.realcleardefense.com/2017/06/20/idf_prepares_for_future_of_war_in_region_294180.html

Isn't Armageddon speculated to start in the Middle East :eek:
 
It's a mountain in Israel, Har (or Tel) Magiddo, not a time, but yes as scarily close to this mess, in fact I bet US, Russian and Syrian aircraft can get a good look at it with sensors at the right altitude.

(Had to edit it after looking at a map again its a little further inland from the Syrian border than I thought, but your talking some number of nautical miles that's not completely unrealistic).
 
Who's genius idea was this? If they didn't know Shogyu was taking a flight then we're all lost and if they did, well there taking a much harder line than we thought. Have to wonder at what level an order to buzz Sergey's personal jet gets given?
https://youtu.be/OwYPyCT8lV0

*Edit* got my Sergey' and Sergeys mixed up. I know this worked out for Yamimoto, but wasn't there a world war first?
 
phrenzy said:
Who's genius idea was this?
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What, intercepting the other guy's planes? Happens all the time. A US plane was intercepted by a Russian plane at a distance of something like five *feet* a few days ago.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/20/politics/russian-su-27-five-feet-from-us-aircraft/index.html
 
Was James Mattis on board flying into or out of a potential Warzone?
 
I understand Mr Shoigu's aircraft and his escort were flying without communication with traffic control.
The NATO aircraft came to see what was up.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40358528
A Nato official later said in a statement that the alliance "can confirm that three Russian aircraft, including two fighters, were tracked over the Baltic Sea earlier today (Wednesday)".
"As the aircraft did not identify themselves or respond to air traffic control, Nato fighter jets scrambled to identify them, according to standard procedures. Nato has no information as to who was on board. We assess the Russian pilots' behaviour as safe and professional."
The official added that the Nato jet had not been chased away by the Russian aircraft.
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That may well have been, but if NSA, NRO, DIA, CIA or any number of other possible alphabet soup players, hell even the USAF itself, can't tell when the Russian defence minister is taking a flight just because he didn't check in with ATC then we have problems. I don't think that's the case, which means either they can't disseminate the information (I'm which case we have problems), or they deliberately buzzed the aircraft which is a bigger problem because now you have what frankly amounts to a psyop against the Russian defence minister during the most complex and potentially dangerous situation between super and middleweight Powers in decades. Is this really the way to re-establish communications too get out of each other's easy in Raqqa, Shoigu must feel at least a little personally targeted and the world doesn't even know who's giving the orders.

I really hope this is part of a very well thought out and calculating plan, because from what I see the state department can't even keep up with military events and some people don't know if the commander in chief is giving these orders and in consultation with who or if the generals are running the show in Syria when the wrong mission could end in direct conflict in any one of a half dozen countries on at least 2 continents.

Remember when we were all worried about the South China sea, wasn't that nice?

Oh and we don't even have a DPRK thread and the South is up in arms, also aren't we still fighting the Taliban? I asked a few people today, they couldn't remember. Anyone notice that the Saudi king just changed the line of succession to his 31 year old son yesterday, what, a couple weeks after signing a $110 billion arms contract. Plus Qatar, the revolutionary guards essentially co-occupying Iraq and Israel on tenderhooks. This is going to be like a 5 year development and deployment holiday for China, assuming they don't take this chance to get into the ROC or build a bridge too a new island too far or think there's a Japanese island they want to build a casino on.

Oh and Ukraine is flaring up again:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/21/russia-cancels-us-talks-ukraine-sanctions
 
When a non-responding aircraft turns up in crowded airspace, aircraft are sent in to investigate. That happens all over Europe - including the Baltic.
 
I'm well aware, I'm just saying this is probably the second most important Russian guy at the table at the moment, if this happened because of a comms SNAFU to air force 2 and it was an su-27 intercepting like this on it's way too a meeting with a NTO ally, would any of us consider it a simple routine mistake and would the su-27 get to fly away? We certainly wouldn't be framing it like this was routine.

Edit: oh and even if it did just light up radar as an escorted medium body plane that suggested a standard basically non threatening monitoring mission, why is the Russian defence Minister going somewhere in a hurry on a non declared, no comms mission to God knows where over the Baltic, that's a question with answering in itself.
 
phrenzy said:
Who's genius idea was this? If they didn't know Shogyu was taking a flight then we're all lost and if they did, well there taking a much harder line than we thought. Have to wonder at what level an order to buzz Sergey's personal jet gets given?
https://youtu.be/OwYPyCT8lV0

*Edit* got my Sergey' and Sergeys mixed up. I know this worked out for Yamimoto, but wasn't there a world war first?
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That F-16 is hardly "buzzing" the other plane. It was flying in formation. This is "buzzing" a plane (recklessly):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLhWxY2FsuE
 
Even a well controlled intercept when ,you know there two unresponsive Su-27s in escort with the Russian defence minister involved it's serious. But, you're quite correct, my nomenclature was hyperbole.

I'm just thinking a little out loud, I should try and use more accurate and appropriate language when things are beginning to get genuinely serious. I still can't figure the logic of the Shehab launch, why the Russian defence minister was flying in an unresponsive, and undeclared (apparently) flight that both sides likely knew about but both decided to enter into brinksmanship and a potential terrible international incident over. There's no apparent diplomatic or military necessity for the secrecy just too get a a reaction out of the states you could send any mid level diplomat or more likely high ranking military officer. So he was obviously headed somewhere important in a hurry.

I'd be very curious to hear from RT to know where he was supposedly going.*edit*, he was going to Kaliningrad via the neutral Baltic sea route.
 
phrenzy said:
I really hope this is part of a very well thought out and calculating plan
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Prepare to be disappointed. On the other hand: flying over the Baltic dumb and deaf, then complaining about the air patrol showing up - that's silly.
 
Kind of my point, if it was just aircrew trying to get some patriot data, no biggy, but given the passenger a middair today could have been a half trillion dollar multi decade diplomatic nightmare on a good day after the events just of this month. Plus, he was on his way to Kaliningrad, I don't have a flight plan but last time I checked you could get there via overland air lanes in Russia, no reason to fly over the Baltic sea in range of any number of itchy SAMs. Unless he was coming via another country West to East, but then with a millitary escort like that without ATC in the host country? And wouldn't that be deserving of even open source news items? Sketchy all round. I thought At least the US and Russia has enough sense for something like this to be avoided with something as basic as a civilian UHF radio.
 
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