France-Germany-Spain Future Combat Air System (FCAS / SCAF / FSAC)

[TomcatViP]

my remark was more to illustrate the buddy carrying concept that might have influenced the choice of a full flat bottom. BUt still, a picture of the UCAS bird displayed that day would be great.

 

[red admiral]

but UK (UK MoD in fact) only interested to be a leader in such a project that will not happen with current France-Germany endeavor where Dassault plays a leading role.

Why would anyone be interested in paying Dassault billions of euros for the privilege of having their technology and IP stolen, and destroying their indigenous industrial capability, and having no return on investment. Unless you're desparate/don't have the capability yourself, this isn't a good idea.

 

[Hood]

but UK (UK MoD in fact) only interested to be a leader in such a project that will not happen with current France-Germany endeavor where Dassault plays a leading role.

Why would anyone be interested in paying Dassault billions of euros for the privilege of having their technology and IP stolen, and destroying their indigenous industrial capability, and having no return on investment. Unless you're desparate/don't have the capability yourself, this isn't a good idea.

And lets face it, Anders was happy to let Dassault take the lead because Airbus lacks the experience to lead on this programme. And in the long-term, Anders' plan is a European-wide Airbus Military division. He would love to acquire Dassault under his wing and this programme is the right political tool to convince the governments to sign off on such a deal.

Adding BAE Systems to NGF would be a major complicating factor in that they would demand a sizable production share and doubtless would have their own design opinions, plus we don't know how much of BAE's recent technology advances are covered by the same kind of US export restrictions that have made things difficult for Japan's decision. It also opens up the chance of a Rolls-Royce and MTU bidding war for the engines too.

Of course this is a naval show, but its interesting that Dassault are pushing NGF as a naval fighter. Perhaps its just coincidence that Euronaval is the first big opportunity for Dassault to make a public reveal of NGF, but I wonder whether the Germans would be prepared to accept any design compromises that might arise from designing for naval operations. However, it does show that France is willing to stump up the Euros if they are prepared to develop their own naval version (assuming the export market in 2035 for carrier fighters is still tiny).

Seeing this makes me slightly sad that we didn't go for cats on the Queen Elizabeths, but I guess even if we had, the aircraft of choice would have been the F-35C anyway.

 

[galgot]

but UK (UK MoD in fact) only interested to be a leader in such a project that will not happen with current France-Germany endeavor where Dassault plays a leading role.

Why would anyone be interested in paying Dassault billions of euros for the privilege of having their technology and IP stolen, and destroying their indigenous industrial capability, and having no return on investment. Unless you're desparate/don't have the capability yourself, this isn't a good idea.

And lets face it, Anders was happy to let Dassault take the lead because Airbus lacks the experience to lead on this programme. And in the long-term, Anders' plan is a European-wide Airbus Military division. He would love to acquire Dassault under his wing and this programme is the right political tool to convince the governments to sign off on such a deal.

Adding BAE Systems to NGF would be a major complicating factor in that they would demand a sizable production share and doubtless would have their own design opinions, plus we don't know how much of BAE's recent technology advances are covered by the same kind of US export restrictions that have made things difficult for Japan's decision. It also opens up the chance of a Rolls-Royce and MTU bidding war for the engines too.

Of course this is a naval show, but its interesting that Dassault are pushing NGF as a naval fighter. Perhaps its just coincidence that Euronaval is the first big opportunity for Dassault to make a public reveal of NGF, but I wonder whether the Germans would be prepared to accept any design compromises that might arise from designing for naval operations. However, it does show that France is willing to stump up the Euros if they are prepared to develop their own naval version (assuming the export market in 2035 for carrier fighters is still tiny).

Seeing this makes me slightly sad that we didn't go for cats on the Queen Elizabeths, but I guess even if we had, the aircraft of choice would have been the F-35C anyway.

Exactly, moreover they shot themselves in the foot with the A-400 mess, showing clearly to the politics they have no experience to manage a big military program. Now they understand they need to get the experience from someone.

 

[Deltafan]

Can Germany and France together even afford it? Few planes = high price = no economy of scale. It doesn't seem like a worthwhile endeavor unless they commit to bare minimum 300 or 400 airframes.

Good question. And maybe "Stealth technology" will be obsolete in 2035...

Otherwise, to avoid the mistakes of the A-400, and too many special requests of too many participants in the program, Germany and France voluntarily decided to limit the program to two participants until the end of its definition. It will be a saving of time and money. Only after other countries can participate in the program, but on the basis of what has already been decided by the German and French partners. If there are new participants, they will always be able to add their own options to the system (like, for example, Israel with the F-35).

But 2035 is far away. And a lot of things can change by then, including the existence of this Franco-German project ...

Then, To be continued...

 

[flateric]

my remark was more to illustrate the buddy carrying concept that might have influenced the choice of a full flat bottom. BUt still, a picture of the UCAS bird displayed that day would be great.

 

[NUSNA_Moebius]

That's a rhetoric question. Anyway cooperative effort has more chances than separate ones.
Airbus' Enders constantly promotes all-European cooperation for FCAS to not to split markets for basically the same final product but UK (UK MoD in fact) only interested to be a leader in such a project that will not happen with current France-Germany endeavor where Dassault plays a leading role.
At least this is my understanding.

It was a legit question. There is an economy of scale in having a large military budget that does require a good bit % of GDP.

 

[TomcatViP]

Thank you Flateric. Seems I have been played by the weird contour of it. :-[

 

[red admiral]

Thank you Flateric. Seems I have been played by the weird contour of it. :-[

Its just a new model of Neuron.

 

[flateric]

for reference
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-military-dassault-avi/dassault-eyes-lead-role-in-european-new-fighter-jet-project-ceo-idUSKBN1HK0RR
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/airbus-urges-pan-european-solution-to-future-combat-449997/
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/farnborough/2018/07/06/can-europe-sustain-more-than-one-next-gen-fighter/

 

[Deltafan]

A 10'52" video on Euronaval. NGF closer from 1'13" to 1'41".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPfI2bPMObo&feature=youtu.be

We can see now the end of the engines.

 

[Deltafan]

Other closer photos :

 

[muttbutt]

Bit of of an odd surprise from Belgium, as well as buying F-35's they are going to invest over 360 million Euros into the F/G project....

Of the 647 million euros left by the government to purchase the F-35, 369 million goes to the development of fighter aircraft of the next generation. That says the spokesperson of Prime Minister Charles Michel (MR).

The government decided Thursday 34 F-35s to buy, accounting for about 4 billion euros. This leaves them 647 million euros under what they first had set. Part of the money that she is saving now goes to a French-German program for the development of a new European fighter plane

https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/belgie-algemeen/369-miljoen-voor-gevechtsvliegtuig-volgende-generatie/10063051

 

[TomcatViP]

347M$ just as a gesture ? More likely that the Belgian industry that has links across the border with their French counterpart can't be left aside without a waste of already sparse public money.

Anyhow, at the end is seems that contrary to some martial declarations and experts's indignation, Belgium managed to draw some honey from both pots.

 

[Mike Pryce]

Might be sensible if there is a practical design to get work share. If not, likely to be eaten up by 'studies'.

Remember the wooing of Belgium over Rafale, once it had become seen as a 'black hole for billions'? They were wise that time.

 

[sienar]

.

 

[Deltafan]

As far as I remember, according to the French Minister of Defense, Belgium could be part of the SCAF program, only if they choose Rafale…

Probably more about this soon...

Otherwise, not everyone can be as cheap as the F-35 :

Remember the wooing of Belgium over Rafale, once it had become seen as a 'black hole for billions'? They were wise that time.

As the largest and most expensive military program, the F-35 is the subject of much scrutiny and criticism in the U.S. and in other countries.[18] In 2013 and 2014, critics argued that the plane was "plagued with design flaws", with many blaming the procurement process in which Lockheed was allowed "to design, test, and produce the F-35 all at the same time, instead of… [identifying and fixing] defects before firing up its production line".[18] By 2014, the program was "$163 billion over budget [and] seven years behind schedule".[19] Critics also contend that the program's high sunk costs and political momentum make it "too big to kill".[20]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II

See you in 5, 10, 15, 20 and over, to see the satisfaction of Belgium (and others) on the availability and cost of operating the cheap F-35

 

[Deltafan]

.

Thanks Sienar, but Harrier gave us these photos some days ago

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,29201.msg338597.html#msg338597

 

[galgot]

As far as I remember, according to the French Minister of Defense, Belgium could be part of the SCAF program, only if they choose Rafale…

Probably more about this soon...

Otherwise, not everyone can be as cheap as the F-35 :

Remember the wooing of Belgium over Rafale, once it had become seen as a 'black hole for billions'? They were wise that time.

As the largest and most expensive military program, the F-35 is the subject of much scrutiny and criticism in the U.S. and in other countries.[18] In 2013 and 2014, critics argued that the plane was "plagued with design flaws", with many blaming the procurement process in which Lockheed was allowed "to design, test, and produce the F-35 all at the same time, instead of… [identifying and fixing] defects before firing up its production line".[18] By 2014, the program was "$163 billion over budget [and] seven years behind schedule".[19] Critics also contend that the program's high sunk costs and political momentum make it "too big to kill".[20]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II

See you in 5, 10, 15, 20 and over, to see the satisfaction of Belgium (and others) on the availability and cost of operating the cheap F-35

No worries for F-35, they have clients for pouring "billions of $ euros for the privilege of having their technology and IP stolen, and destroying their indigenous industrial capability, and having no return on investment."

 

[Deltafan]

A better bottom view

https://www.milmag.pl/news/view?news_id=1506

 

[Deltafan]

Otherwise, the four "ways" for the nozzles…

 

[flateric]

Nozzles on renderings from Wings for Europe roll are all the same. Look carefully.

 

[Deltafan]

You're right, they are much more alike than I originally thought ???, even if they do not seem completely identical.

 

[Mike Pryce]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/10/28/export-constraints-emerge-as-sticking-point-for-future-german-french-combat-aircraft-report/

 

[Deltafan]

Thanks for the link Harrier.

Well, as said before…

But 2035 is far away. And a lot of things can change by then, including the existence of this Franco-German project ...
Then, To be continued...

Maybe, not only 2035, but 2019 is far away :

To be continued...

Edit : The reference article by Der Spiegel (in German) :
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/frankreich-droht-deutschland-mit-ausstieg-aus-kampfjet-projekt-a-1235276.html

 

[Hood]

Perhaps a bit of a storm in a teacup.
Of course Dassault wants exports, its the only way to offset some of the high R&D costs given the Franco-German fleets are likely to be fairly small if no other European nations join the programme.
How serious is Germany in its moral stand? They don't seem to have stopped potential Typhoon exports to various Middle East nations. On the other hand how many aircraft does Dassault expect to export? The Rafale has hardly rekindled the Mirage wonder years (96 so far for 3 countries) and with a high-high 5th Gen design the purchase costs can only get higher.

 

[red admiral]

Not much new "news" but France and Germany look like they're having plenty of fun arguing about acronyms, and telling Spain what to do, which unsurprisingly Spain doesn't seem to like. Doesn't seem much evidence of any actual work having happened in the last 18 months since this started besides France saying they want it to carry nuclear weapons, fly off a carrier, and be generally awesome - don't know where affordability or ability to actually deliver this come in...

https://mobile.twitter.com/GarethJennings3/status/1062729212547813377

https://mobile.twitter.com/GarethJennings3/status/1063061494873686016

https://mobile.twitter.com/GarethJennings3/status/1063065249887215616

 

[flateric]

https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/sur-scaf-cela-serait-bien-qu-airbus-prenne-le-leadership-dirk-hoke-airbus-ds-794315.html
Back in October...

 

[TomcatViP]

If Dassault could be commanded to discard the naval version, then things could go forward much smoother. Germans or Spaniards will never agree to swallow the bill that comes with a navalized airframe (mind you that we are talking with catapult and trap system and not simply a STOVL less demanding on the structure).

Then the trick to have the smallest nose size to force a custom radar design have really no reason to work once more. EU did experience the drama of the move to GaN. Once is enough.

And last but not least, the nuclear integration would remain national since both systems are segregated. France should simply bear the cost of a customized adaptation by itself.

Then I am sure the project could run on smoother ground.

 

[flateric]

https://world.eurofighter.com/articles/the-road-to-fcas

 

[sferrin]

This drama sounds familiar. . .

 

[flateric]

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/09/07/we-are-not-dupes-france-takes-step-away-from-us-with-fighter-program/
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/10/28/export-constraints-emerge-as-sticking-point-for-future-german-french-combat-aircraft-report/
https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2018/11/07/europes-next-gen-fighter-jet-is-stuck-in-the-bickering-phase/
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/11/14/with-plans-for-drone-sidekicks-europes-futuristic-jet-program-slowly-comes-into-focus/
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/11/15/french-officials-stake-out-sovereign-bits-in-franco-german-warplane-bid/

 

[flateric]

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/ruestungszusammenarbeit-macrons-angst-vor-deutschlands-abschied-15886456.html?printPagedArticle=true#pageIndex_0

 

[TomcatViP]

“France has a specific policy about deterrence,” Maj. Gen. Jean-Pascal Breton, the French lead for the Future Combat Air System, told attendees at the International Fighter industry conference in Berlin. “That’s why we don’t want any countries to dictate to us what to do.”

Sourced from here: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/11/15/french-officials-stake-out-sovereign-bits-in-franco-german-warplane-bid/ as linked by Flateric

 

[Hood]

Brig. Gen. Gerald Funke seems to hit the nail on the head:

“Don’t trust anyone who says they can make predictions about the characteristics of an air system in 2040,” Funke said at the International Fighter industry conference on Wednesday. That attitude means Germany is expected to wait as long as possible before closing the design phase of the envisioned weapon and moving toward production.
“We need [a] sensible starting point that’s worth spending money on,” Funke told Defense News on the sidelines of the conference. “The time pressure is not as acute as industry presents it.”

Until now it seems (like with Tempest) the industry is pushing European governments to spend money for the next 20 years on the promises of some rather vague terminology and technology in the hopes of keeping their factories open past 2025. I've yet to see the European Air Staffs actually say what they want. At least the French are staking out what they need.

Not surprising to see Spain jumping on the bandwagon, their aerospace industry is Airbus, so its natural they want a slice of the pie to secure jobs down at Illescas.

 

[galgot]

"“We need [a] sensible starting point that’s worth spending money on,” Funke told Defense News on the sidelines of the conference. “The time pressure is not as acute as industry presents it.”

Of course , what credible operational experience do they have, if they don't even bother maintaining their Eurofighter fleet, how could they even know what they really need ?

 

[TomcatViP]

I am however baffled by the 100B$ (or was it €?) mentioned by Airbus for the program. Given the past resounding failures and the single digit cost of many Kratos design, one company at the forefront man-machine teaming UAS*.

There was obviously many interesting and promising things in this interview but still it sounded like intentions of the past. The gap b/w 1980's design philosophy that still were at the base of what is promised for 2040 left me quite dubious. And then, not that this is particularly abnormal with an airbus manager but you take a look at the CV of the man and you see a tremendous career built on a succession of industrial failure. Not my intention to be that hard but still the full gamut of keywords describing the complete range of polymorphic** technological promises tasted like the simplicity of a... deja vu.


I will paste the link here since it should appear for most of us on the previous page of this thread (from Flateric):
https://world.eurofighter.com/articles/the-road-to-fcas

From 2040 onwards we will face a massively increased threat level for air assets and these will require new technologies to address them. Even today we see the proliferation of threat systems with the advent of near and potential peer opponents***. It’s therefore vital to have a roadmap for capabilities and the technologies that leverage these.

The great thing with roadmaps and navigation chart is that you have to have as many waypoints as needed to be accurate, on target, on time and within your budget...



*see Kratos dev cost:

Kratos has invested about $70-75 million in its tactical drone development programmes, with Hebert saying the vast majority of this sum has been allocated to the Valkyrie. A significant part of the investment has included developing autonomous flight controls, which allow a single operator, on the ground or in another aircraft – such as the pilot of a Lockheed Martin F-35 – to manage the missions of several UAVs at once, says Fendley.

source: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/kratos-more-than-doubles-tactical-uav-development-pr-453659/

**Shouldn't I write OMNImorphic given the context?

*** In the context of a tri-national project for a specific EU defense, a near peer sounds like an awkward term given that it is generally used in the context of US Vs China or Russia where the mass effects are of another magnitude...

 

[kaiserd]

To follow Tomcat’s comments above it would only be fair to point out that a lot of the same points could equally validly be made about the UK and US efforts and thinking about next generation combat aircraft.

The military are still trying to work out exactly what they need and want, the politicians don’t know what they are willing or able to pay from a capability and keeping factories open perspective (with Brexit an extra complication) and industry players scrambling around trying to stay relevant, credible and in-the-game.

In this context taking some extra time before launching the next massively expensive project is not a bad idea.

 

[Deltafan]

Article from French weekly La Tribune, with the title: The future European combat aircraft will take off industrially in January 2019

https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/le-futur-avion-de-combat-europeen-va-decoller-industriellement-en-janvier-2019-798120.html

France and Germany have agreed to launch the sixth generation fighter program.
(…)
The French General Directorate of Armaments (DGA) will be the contracting agency for the three contracts
(…)
This agreement was validated Monday in Brussels by the two ministers - Florence Parly and Ursula von der Leyen.
(…)
In this context, the two countries will launch in January (...) a contract of architecture and design of SCAF for a period of two years under a joint leadership Dassault Aviation and Airbus.
Thales will also be on the photo … Dassault Aviation and Airbus will have to make room for the French electronics specialist, who is considered as the European champion of connectivity and system.
In addition, France and Germany have also agreed to sign two contracts for the development of two demonstrators at the Paris Air Show (17-23.06.19) : one on the aircraft, under the leadership of Dassault Aviation, with Airbus as subcontractor, the other on the engine under Safran leadership with the German engine manufacturer MTU as subcontractor. The demonstrator will validate the technological choices in order to have a sixth generation aircraft that will fly in 2035.
(...)
Paris and Berlin will also have to launch studies on sensors, radar and electronic warfare ...
(…)
Spain, which has asked to be an observer, will join the SCAF program once it will be stabilized. By the end of the year, the Spanish will join the high-level agreement (HL Coord), which was signed between France and Germany in April in Berlin. Finally, Madrid is expected to sign a letter of intent in the first quarter to participate in the SCAF program.

 

[Deltafan]

Well, a French article about : How does the French Air Force imagine its future "system" of combat ?

http://www.opex360.com/2018/11/30/comment-larmee-de-lair-imagine-son-futur-systeme-de-combat/

Posted only for the drawing (not necessarily representative, in particular with no air intake) of the "SCAF" :