That's some great info in this thread. Makes the Rafale situation in French air forces much more clear.
This is what I found in an interview with a Dassault spokesman from 2019.
3 Rafales were delivered in 2018.
None will be delivered in 2019, 2020 and 2021.
In 2022 deliveries to French air forces will start again. by 2024 a total of 28 new airframes will be delivered. (so 9+ per year in 2022 to 2024)
Hopefully that info also helps to draw an accurate picture of French air forces.
What does throw a wrench into it all is sales of used planes to other countries. Does that mean that out of 143 Rafales that are currently in service, by 2022 a dozen or two dozen will leave service, as they will be sold to Greece (12 airframes) and other countries (possibly another dozen)?
For France :
Preliminary : the production rate by Dassault is 11 Rafale per year. As said in posts above, it will not be increased until the 2024-2027 production gap is definitively closed :
-Batch 1 : 13 with PESA ordered in 1997 : 2B + 1 C + 10M (B301, B302, C101 and M1 testbeds + M2 to M10)
-Batch 2 : 48 with PESA ordered in 1999, delivered from 2004 to 2008 : 25B + 7C + 16M (B303 to 327, C102 to 108 and M11 to 26)
-Batch 3 : 59 with PESA ordered in 2004, delivered from 2008 to 2013 : 11B + 36C +12M (B328 to 338, C109 to 144 and M27 to 38)
-Batch 4 : 60 with AESA ordered in 2009, interrupted because of export deliveries
-4T1 : 32 delivered from 2013 to around 2016 : 20B + 4C + 8M (B339 to 358, C145 to 148 and M39 to 46)
-M47 : immobilized until 2029 as testbed
-4T2 : 27 to be delivered from december 2022 to around May 2024 : 5B + 21C + 1M (B359 to 363, C149 to C169 an M48)
[Total at this stage : 180 orders and 153 deliveries. For now : 5 lost : B316 (06.12.2007), M22+M25 (24.09.2010), M18 (28.11.2010) and M24 (02.07.2012)]
-Replacement of the 12 used for Greece (with AESA, serials unknown) : 12 with AESA ordered in 2021, to be delivered in 2025 (180 - 12 + 12 = 180)
-Buy of 12 used aircraft by Croatia is a possibility (as the Rafale is one of the contender) but nothing is sure, even, if success, if that would be with PESA or AESA. If success, logically, there would be an order or 12 new Rafale for France with deliveries around 2026 (with such an order the gap 2024-2027 could be closed, depending of the months of the last delivery of these 12 new Rafale and the first delivery of the 30 new F4). (180 - 12 + 12 = 180)
-30 F4 with AESA ordered in 2019, to be delivered from 2027 to 2030 (180 + 30 = 210 orders)
-As the French Loi de programmation militaire (Military Programming Act ?) 2019-2025 foresaw for 2030 : 225 Rafale, there would be a last order of around 15-20 Rafale (even if not strictly in 2030 and if there is money...)
Point de situation sur les livraisons et coûts des Rafale.
omnirole-rafale.com
fr.wikipedia.org
Le 14 janvier, le ministère des Armées a lancé le développement du nouveau standard F4 pour améliorer l'avion de combat Rafale. Un contrat de...-Aéro - Spatial
www.usinenouvelle.com