USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS news

[Training_Dummy]

I think people need to start considering the fact that most every platform is going to be detectable in the medium term. The Space Force already has access to more cheap lift to LEO than it could use. SDA plans to launch 200 plus satellites every two years starting next year and that will only go up. NRO has already placed 80 recon satellites in orbit since May in four launches with two more expected before Christmas, and those satellites were contracted just in 2021. Detection technology cycles are literally already down to several years, and global radar satellite networks are coming this decade (the USAF GMTI program looks to put test satellites up in several years). A large fast aircraft likely is going to be visible from orbit by the time it enters service, possibly in multiple wavelengths. Putting all your eggs in one expensive basket is likely not a viable solution. I think this is also one of the reasons the USAF has not shown enthusiasm for dramatically accelerating B-21 production - they are concerned its stealth has a shelf life, even at subsonic speeds.

Medium term has an uncomfortably labile definition, but I take your point. That said, B-21 is being made today and even if we theoretically agreed that in the "medium term" a Raider might not do as well in/within the first or second island chain, there are many other geographies (likely most of the rest of the world) where it would be a phenomenal upgrade over B-52, B-2 and B-1 for penetrating strike. Add potential, future unmanned piloting, throw in some software upgrades for its AESA arrays to add air to air fluency plus longer ranged missiles and post increment 1 CCAs, and it makes perfect sense to me; perhaps the only thing that makes real sense to invest in, in 2024.

 

[Josh_TN]

B-21 makes perfect sense. It is here now.

A several hundred million dollar manned NGAD post 2030 does not make sense to me.

 

[quellish]

B-21 makes perfect sense. It is here now.

A several hundred million dollar manned NGAD post 2030 does not make sense to me.

The often quoted $300m price for NGAD is from 2018/2019 when the vision for the aircraft and program was very different.

A large driver for the costs is the engine program though even today.

 

[Josh_TN]

The often quoted $300m price for NGAD is from 2018/2019 when the vision for the aircraft and program was very different.

A large driver for the costs is the engine program though even today.

And i think that is why the program might be scaled down to something more like a modern F-35: not one can afford that bespoke tech.

 

[quellish]

And i think that is why the program might be scaled down to something more like a modern F-35: not one can afford that bespoke tech.

It was scaled down long ago. In the 2018 timeframe the intent was to put all of the 5 key technologies into one new manned aircraft. Not long after that the objective changed to maturing those technologies and begin incorporating them into other existing systems rather than one new manned aircraft.

The Nearly Decade-long Story That Led To NGAD Flight Demonstrator | Aviation Week Network

How a massive budget cut, a DARPA program and a lengthy internal debate transformed the NGAD program.

aviationweek.com

 

[Ozair]

Medium term has an uncomfortably labile definition, but I take your point.

Before we sell the farm we need to remember that this is just a continuation of the game. For every advance there will be similar advance on the counter side. Being so worried about detection from long range or from space just provides an opportunity for decoys to advance further. In the example of the B-21 I could see a decoy that could potentially match IR and RCS signature complicating the targeting picture the same way a towed decoy or MALD might today.

That said, B-21 is being made today and even if we theoretically agreed that in the "medium term" a Raider might not do as well in/within the first or second island chain, there are many other geographies (likely most of the rest of the world) where it would be a phenomenal upgrade over B-52, B-2 and B-1 for penetrating strike. Add potential, future unmanned piloting, throw in some software upgrades for its AESA arrays to add air to air fluency plus longer ranged missiles and post increment 1 CCAs, and it makes perfect sense to me; perhaps the only thing that makes real sense to invest in, in 2024.

Noting that sensors can be not only deceived but also destroyed. We might have a longer air campaign to create a more permissive or maybe the better term is less hostile environment to fly within. For the peer v peer there won't be air supremacy but the intent to create short windows of air superiority to achieve the aims of the raid. Knock out the right sensors, network nodes etc and prosecute the targets.

The other key is mass. When you have enough mass in the battle space the high cost exquisite platforms are more likely to hide within the noise.