Ukrainian Patriot SAM operational/technical discussions

[Forest Green]

What do we see in these photos?
Obviously, this is a "penetrating warhead". What are such warheads used for? To defeat buried command posts. For example located at a depth of 120 meters underground. And now ask yourself the question: what kind of warhead will be fired at the SAM?

We don't know for certain that it was fired at the SAM. Nor do we know what warhead types are even available for the Kinzhal. The variety may well be a lot less than for the Iskander, since both the purpose and the deployment speed are different. Whilst Wikipedia is by no means the beginning and end of everything fact, the only warheads it lists for the Kinzhal are simply conventional HE and low yield nuclear. In fact, those are the only listed anywhere on the internet. Whereas for Iskander, all manner of crap is listed.

 

[paralay]

The flight speed of ballistic missiles always correlates with their range. Let's try to estimate the approach speed in the target area
ATACMS 1.04 km/s
"Oka" 3.2 km/s
"Iskander" 1.4 km/s
"Dagger" 2.6 km/s
The combat unit of a strategic missile 3 km/s

 

[paralay]

We can use the official information from the poster.
The Russian hypersonic aviation missile system (ARC) "Dagger"
Hypersonic missiles of the complex are capable of hitting both stationary objects and surface ships: aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers and frigates. The Dagger ARC is an aviation variant of the Iskander complex.
The ARK Dagger rocket, after being dropped at a given point, flies at a hypersonic speed exceeding the speed of sound by ten times, and maneuvers along the entire flight path. This combination of characteristics allows the ARK Dagger missile to reliably overcome all existing air and missile defense systems.
After successful tests, from December 1, 2017, the ARK "Dagger" began carrying out experimental combat duty at the airfields of the Southern Military District.
In February – March 2018 , operational military tests of the complex began

 

[paralay]

 

[sferrin]

The flight speed of ballistic missiles always correlates with their range. Let's try to estimate the approach speed in the target area
ATACMS 1.04 km/s
"Oka" 3.2 km/s
"Iskander" 1.4 km/s
"Dagger" 2.6 km/s
The combat unit of a strategic missile 3 km/s

Flight speed is not terminal speed. All these missiles exit the atmosphere (or much of it). But ask yourself if they never used Kinzhal, why not? If the target is important enough for an Iskander, and they failed to hit the target, surely they would follow up with Kinzhal, no?

 

[paralay]

If the target is important enough for an Iskander, and they failed to hit the target, surely they would follow up with Kinzhal, no?

SAM is not a target for a Dagger. There is enough Iskander with a cassette warhead. At least it's logical

 

[Firefinder]

If the target is important enough for an Iskander, and they failed to hit the target, surely they would follow up with Kinzhal, no?

SAM is not a target for a Dagger. There is enough Iskander with a cassette warhead. At least it's logical

The Dagger was literally billed by the Russias as a SaM killer since it was considered un-interceptable.

And it makes a whole lot sense since the best SEAD/DEAD weapons are the one's that keep the launcher plane out of the Sam range. And makes far more sense then trying to use cruise missile or old S300 type missiles like the Russian did.

The Fact that no one remembers that the Army used old Pershing 2 missiles that hot modded for more speed as targets called the STORM for Patriots in the 1990s. With the Patriot knocking those down handly is on them.

View: https://youtu.be/cmjxQM2I7JU

 

[sferrin]

If the target is important enough for an Iskander, and they failed to hit the target, surely they would follow up with Kinzhal, no?

SAM is not a target for a Dagger. There is enough Iskander with a cassette warhead. At least it's logical

Which would seem to indicate the Patriot battery was not the target. Apparently the closest any missile (Kinzhal or Iskander) got was 9 miles.

 

[GTX]

Folks, I just deleted a bunch of off topic or argumentative/trolling posts from this thread. Stay on topic and behave like mature adults lest you get banned from posting. Consider this the first warning.

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

I've left this discussion open only as it interesting from a technical and operational view. Avoid political posts on either side please.

 

[Scott Kenny]

I don't know if the vanilla PAC-3 are new-build or just transferred old stock.

I’d assume old stock. Everything else that’s been provided is either out of service or about to expire (ADM-160B, AGM-88B, RAAMS, Zuni, a lot of the initial Stingers and Javelins). it would make sense to donate things that were going to have to be demil’d soon anyway.

Second this. War in Ukraine has been an excuse for everyone to change "DRMO/surplus" to "donate to Ukraine"

 

[aonestudio]

Ukraine Situation Report: Patriot Kill Marks Hint That It Downed Aircraft Inside Russia

Ukraine shows kill markings painted on a Patriot air defense battery that align with enemy aircraft downed inside Russia.

www.thedrive.com

 

[BBCRF]

Random set of drawings. Patriot has nothing to do with helicopters in the Bryansk region. Considering that their patriot shot down a free-falling bomb

 

[Josh_TN]

Something shot down at least four aircraft that day. The only other candidates are S300 or Russians AD forces.

 

[Forest Green]

Perhaps Wagner were warming up.

 

[Archibald]

Perhaps Wagner were warming up.

As they did for Belgorod... wait, no, that was the Russian Air Force. And twitter (or what's left of it) had a field day. "I told you so. They are bombing Belgorod for real. No longer hidding."

 

[LukaszK]

The Dagger missel is a two-stage, first stage MiG-31K, with a range of 2000 km. Iskander - one stage and a range of 500 km. These misseles cannot have the same speed

Actually, it might be that Dagger is indeed two stage missile (not counting Mig-31K)
Based on Iskander but, in place of warhead - there is placed additional stage (at cost of smaller warhead)

https://news.italy24.press/content/uploads/2023/05/18/37a7e786a5.jpg

 

[paralay]

Actually, it might be that Dagger is indeed two stage missile (not counting Mig-31K)

Now the missel, like Iskander, is single-stage. Probably the patent shows the relatively cheap development of the "Dagger" after the appearance of effective means of counteraction from the enemy

 

[Flyaway]

Germany and Ukraine have agreed on the supply of additional Patriot air defence missile systems to Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his evening address on Wednesday.

Earlier on Wednesday, Germany announced its decision to ship two more Patriot launchers to Ukraine.

Ukraine to receive additional Patriot air defence systems from Germany -Zelenskiy

Germany and Ukraine have agreed on the supply of additional Patriot air defence missile systems to Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his evening address on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Forest Green]

We Now Know The Types Of Patriot Missiles Being Used In Ukraine

The US Army has confirmed sending five different types of missiles to Ukraine for its Patriot systems, including the highly capable PAC-3 MSE.

www.thedrive.com

 

[sferrin]

We Now Know The Types Of Patriot Missiles Being Used In Ukraine

The US Army has confirmed sending five different types of missiles to Ukraine for its Patriot systems, including the highly capable PAC-3 MSE.

www.thedrive.com

Makes sense they'd send at least a couple MSEs given the opportunity to test them against Kinzhals.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Makes sense they'd send at least a couple MSEs given the opportunity to test them against Kinzhals.

Yup. Perfect operational test.

 

[Forest Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1722878168552357945

View: https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1722878168552357945?s=20

 

[barrett]

Breaking With Postwar History, Japan to Sell Patriot Missiles to U.S.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/21/world/asia/japan-postwar-missile-defense-sales.html

Tokyo appears ready to adjust rules to allow the export of the weapons to the United States, a move that could help Washington support Ukraine’s fight against Russia.

Washington Post: Japan to consider transfer of Patriot missiles to US, indirectly supporting Ukraine

Washington Post: Japan to consider transfer of Patriot missiles to US, indirectly supporting Ukraine

Japan will consider exporting dozens of Patriot missiles this week in a move aimed to indirectly support Ukraine in its war against Russia, the Washington Post reported on Dec. 20.

kyivindependent.com

Japan will consider exporting dozens of Patriot missiles this week in a move aimed to indirectly support Ukraine in its defense against Russia's full-scale invasion, the Washington Post reported on Dec. 19.
The Japanese government plans to update export guidelines as early as this Friday allowing the shipment of several dozen Patriot missiles to the United States to backfill Washington’s stockpiles

 

[totoro]

So just missiles? I thought it'd be whole batteries. Does that mean that the Patriot Frankens am project is ongoing smoothly and nothing more than missiles is needed?
I do expect those patriot missiles to be somehow mated to S-300 engagement radars and other S-300 equipment. Not sure if there's any other, more suitable system to mate them to?

 

[Cordy]

Approx. 300 Russian Kh-22 (a 1960's air launched anti-ship/carrier liquid fueled rocket, Mach 4, range 300+miles, 6t missile with 1t warhead) launched against Ukraine and reported not a single one has ever been shot down by the Ukranian air defenses, claimed the Kh-22 has never to be in range of a Patriot even though have targeted Kyiv, any thoughts why or just a very unlikely coincidence Kh-22 has never been range of a Patriot battery.

Russia’s Kh-22 – the Missile Ukraine Has Yet to Shoot Down

In 2000, Ukraine transferred 386 Kh-22 missiles to Russia as an installment against the gas debt. These have since be used to target Ukrainian cities in attacks like the one this morning.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[paralay]

Against this background, the statements about the interception of Iskander and especially the Dagger look very funny

 

[sferrin]

Against this background, the statements about the interception of Iskander and especially the Dagger look very funny

You still coping with that? Here, let me show you what it looked like (30 years ago BTW):

 

[Josh_TN]

The main advantage a Kh-22 might have over a ballistic missile is its steady high cruise altitude and near vertical powered dive. The Kh-22 is under full power for its flight and has much larger control surfaces, it flies to the target and then does an ~80 degree dive onto it, actually gaining speed in the terminal maneuver (IIRC Mach 3-4) since its engine is still running as it dives. Ballistic missiles are coasting comparatively early in their flight path and have a more shallow approach angle.

 

[paralay]

Iskander and Dagger fall vertically on the target. The first with a speed of 4493 km/h, the second - 6534 km / h
X-22 arrives at an angle of 45 degrees at a speed of less than 3710 km/h, X-32 - less than 5400 km/h
In addition, the X-22 is larger, has a significantly larger RCS and has no means of overcoming air defense

 

[Josh_TN]

I stand corrected on KH-22, I thought they went into steep dives to take advantage of the “hole” in a ships radar field of view directly above the vessel.

The charts someone posted in the Iskander thread implied a much more ballistic shaped flight path throughout most of the trajectory with a relay low altitude turn to the vertical late in the engagement. I had thought the Kk-22 had a much sharper transition from high altitude cruise to endgame dive comparatively.

As for top speed at the end of a solid rocket missile - surely this range dependent and not a set value?

 

[sferrin]

Iskander and Dagger fall vertically on the target. The first with a speed of 4493 km/h, the second - 6534 km / h
X-22 arrives at an angle of 45 degrees at a speed of less than 3710 km/h, X-32 - less than 5400 km/h
In addition, the X-22 is larger, has a significantly larger RCS and has no means of overcoming air defense

And guess what happens when you shoot where Patriot isn't? Go ahead.

 

[Firefinder]

Also the KH22 flies at 39000 feet and lower.

By its nature its a FAR harder target the the Dagger.

It flies fairly fast at low attitude.

A Radar horizon for a ground base radar to a target at 40k feet is roughly 50 miles.

Compare to the dagger 150 mile. With the Dagger Flying a mile a minute, means you have 150 seconds compare to the kh22 mach 3 giving 78 seconds, or less depending on the target location to to the system, to track and engage the target.

Which be more harder hit?

Hint, not hypewunderwaffle.

Flyinv high in a ballastic path like the Dagger you are skeet.

You want low and fast, meduim and Stupid FAST, or low and stealthy to survive against a modern system.

 

[sferrin]

Also the KH22 flies at 39000 feet and lower.

By its nature its a FAR harder target the the Dagger.

It flies fairly fast at low attitude.

A Radar horizon for a ground base radar to a target at 40k feet is roughly 50 miles.

Compare to the dagger 150 mile. With the Dagger Flying a mile a minute, means you have 150 seconds compare to the kh22 mach 3 giving 78 seconds, or less depending on the target location to to the system, to track and engage the target.

Which be more harder hit?

Hint, not hypewunderwaffle.

Flyinv high in a ballastic path like the Dagger you are skeet.

You want low and fast, meduim and Stupid FAST, or low and stealthy to survive against a modern system.

Given the Kh-22 Kitchen has been in the target set for half a century, the notion the US would have a a problem with it is a stretch. If you had to pick the #1 target Aegis was designed to defeat it would be the AS-4. The AQM-37C was the simulator for that. Against missiles, PAC-3 is more capable still. Kh-22 is MUCH slower than either Iskander or Kinzhal.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Given the Kh-22 Kitchen has been in the target set for half a century, the notion the US would have a a problem with it is a stretch. If you had to pick the #1 target Aegis was designed to defeat it would be the AS-4. The AQM-37C was the simulator for that. Against missiles, PAC-3 is more capable still.

Agreed. It's a very obvious target requirement. "The system must be able to engage Kh22s" is probably written into both Aegis and Patriot contract requirements.

Kh-22 is MUCH slower than either Iskander or Kinzhal.

I'm not so sure about that. Not below 20,000ft, anyways.

 

[Wallmart Republic]

You still coping with that? Here, let me show you what it looked like (30 years ago BTW):

I fail to see how a staged marketing test with non representative targets proves anything. Under real life conditions, it infamously failed to intercept SCUD monkey models following fairly predictable ballistic trajectories, and failed again some 30 years later against the truly sophisticated rocket forces of Yemen. One might say patriot batteries offer a psychological AD umbrella to their users.

Which be more harder hit?
Hint, not hypewunderwaffle.

That is a philosophical question as far as NATO air defenses are concerned. They cannot intercept either at their current technological level .

 

[Firefinder]

Given the Kh-22 Kitchen has been in the target set for half a century, the notion the US would have a a problem with it is a stretch. If you had to pick the #1 target Aegis was designed to defeat it would be the AS-4. The AQM-37C was the simulator for that. Against missiles, PAC-3 is more capable still. Kh-22 is MUCH slower than either Iskander or Kinzhal.

Ah but here the rub.

How many of thes KH22 attacks where targeted at or close to the System?

Remember that the Dagger shotdowns were Aimed AT the Patriot it self.

The Patriot WAS THE TARGET.

That is easy mode for any system.

The hardest mode is when you are trying to protect something AWAY and INFRONT of the system.

Which is why SOP is to put the system basically on or infront of the target to act as a goalie.


So say the Russian Target was 25 miles infront of the radar?

The Radar Time to engage is cut in half. And that time is cut even more every bit more the target away. Thats before you take into account the Interceptors Travel time.

Cause the SAM systems like Aegis Patriot or even the S300 do not have uniform performance.

They have LAYERS OF PERFORMANCE.

Ranging from killing everything in a 10 miles radius to only able to kill high flying planes at 100.

And we not seeing where the KH22 are hitting in relation to the Patriot.

If these things are hitting 45 miles away infront the system?

AKA well within the Radar Sight but outside of the Interceptors Killzone for the Missile

Sorry nothing be able stop that short of prestaging weapons there. Perferable with their own sensors or another system.

Physics among other issues make it so.

Now if its behind the system then we can talk bout performance. But infront of it?

Well thats the hardest engagement set up for Interceptors.

That is a philosophical question as far as NATO air defenses are concerned. They cannot intercept either at their current technological level .

Oh they can as seen back in February and recently in the red sea.

It just that theres MULTIPLE LAYERS to this problem thats many are missing context for.

Which I shitty explain 2 of.

 

[Forest Green]

The main advantage a Kh-22 might have over a ballistic missile is its steady high cruise altitude and near vertical powered dive. The Kh-22 is under full power for its flight and has much larger control surfaces, it flies to the target and then does an ~80 degree dive onto it, actually gaining speed in the terminal maneuver (IIRC Mach 3-4) since its engine is still running as it dives. Ballistic missiles are coasting comparatively early in their flight path and have a more shallow approach angle.

How is a Kh-22 intercept significantly different to an SR-71 intercept?

 

[MihoshiK]

The problem is simply that Ukraine only has a few Patriot batteries, not nearly enough to cover the entire country. So yeah, if Russia keeps firing Kh-22 at places where Patriot ain't, it's not going to shoot down any. Like, duh.

 

[sferrin]

I fail to see how a staged marketing test with non representative targets proves anything. Under real life conditions, it infamously failed to intercept SCUD monkey models following fairly predictable ballistic trajectories, and failed again some 30 years later against the truly sophisticated rocket forces of Yemen. One might say patriot batteries offer a psychological AD umbrella to their users.

LOL. You're not even a good bot. No vodka for you.