Ukrainian Conflict NEWS ONLY !!!!

[Dreamfighter]

IMOHO the CAP and RQ-4 flights boarding Airways and shipping lanes could clearly delimits, secure and be ready to support civilian traffic. Nobody wants another MH-17 or KAL-007. The deployment of F-35 would be a notable plus if that was the intended strategy.

Romania:
View attachment 674869

Poland:

View attachment 674870

Can't imagine why Russia thinks NATO is an existential threat.

NATO moves aircraft into position just in case and now you're using that to justify Russia's behavior? Classy.

Don't go there Sferrin. If you're not willing to discuss both side's claims like a grown up, bow out.

Russia reportedly regards Ukraine's membership in NATO as their equivalent to the Cuban missile crisis. This isn't a game.

NATO could end the crisis right now by respecting Russia's security concerns and banning Ukraine's membership permanently. But they're not doing that. In the meantime a lot of people are dying.

Banning a sovereign state from applying to become a member of NATO is impossible, the Kremlin knows this. The Kremlin also knows a sovereign state with an internal conflict or a civil war going on, cannot become a member of NATO.
Let´s assume Ukraine in the (near) future is no longer a sovereign state and/or get´s a 'neutral' status. What if then e.g. Finland now feels threatened by Mr. Putin´s behaviour and would want to become member of NATO? Russian invasion of Finland??

The Russian people have no reason at all to fear NATO. Hell, not so long ago here in the West some were discussing if there was still a need for something like NATO. The US had already shifted it´s attention to Asia years ago. Marcon called NATO 'braindead' quite recently.
Mr. Putin and his close friends have their personal reasons for fearing any possible European (democratic) influences on the Russian people. Therefore Europe (and NATO) has to become 'the enemy' again, like in the 'good' old days. JFC, like we have not enough other problems on this planet.

 

[Moose]

Ukraine will be divided into several independent states. Novorossiya will become part of Russia. The very word "Ukraine" - "Украина" - "У края" - "At the edge" will disappear from the lexicon

If

 

[stealthflanker]

The Ukrainian army enters the cities and hides behind the backs of civilians. This is a challenge for the Russian army.
The task for the coming days is to prevent an environmental catastrophe, for this:
- take control of nuclear facilities
- power plants and dams
- isolate American biological laboratories

I would say critical challenge.

I'm curious tho why it seems Russia does not attack all "viable" airfield in the Ukraine ? Or maybe crater their runaway with cluster munitions ?

 

[Kat Tsun]

IMOHO the CAP and RQ-4 flights boarding Airways and shipping lanes could clearly delimits, secure and be ready to support civilian traffic. Nobody wants another MH-17 or KAL-007. The deployment of F-35 would be a notable plus if that was the intended strategy.

Romania:
View attachment 674869

Poland:

View attachment 674870

Can't imagine why Russia thinks NATO is an existential threat.

NATO moves aircraft into position just in case and now you're using that to justify Russia's behavior? Classy.

Don't go there Sferrin. If you're not willing to discuss both side's claims like a grown up, bow out.

Russia reportedly regards Ukraine's membership in NATO as their equivalent to the Cuban missile crisis. This isn't a game.

NATO could end the crisis right now by respecting Russia's security concerns and banning Ukraine's membership permanently. But they're not doing that. In the meantime a lot of people are dying.

The Russian people have no reason at all to fear NATO.

The people aren't the object of discussion though. It's the state apparatus, the political-economic institutions, and the leadership:



You might as well argue that the American people had nothing to fear from bin Laden, which I suppose would be literally true as well. Merely their political-economic institutions, leadership, and state apparatus would need to be replaced for peace to be an option. As many Americans may not enjoy being dictated to by a powerful Salafist Islamic caliphate, many Russians may not enjoy being dictated to by a powerful liberal capitalist democracy.

The Ukrainian army enters the cities and hides behind the backs of civilians. This is a challenge for the Russian army.
The task for the coming days is to prevent an environmental catastrophe, for this:
- take control of nuclear facilities
- power plants and dams
- isolate American biological laboratories

I would say critical challenge.

I'm curious tho why it seems Russia does not attack all "viable" airfield in the Ukraine ? Or maybe crater their runaway with cluster munitions ?

The Ukrainians are likely operating from either roadside airbases al a Sweden or out of Poland and Romania.

Anything else has already been cratered.

 

[NeilChapman]

Don't go there Sferrin. If you're not willing to discuss both side's claims like a grown up, bow out.

Russia reportedly regards Ukraine's membership in NATO as their equivalent to the Cuban missile crisis. This isn't a game.

NATO could end the crisis right now by respecting Russia's security concerns and banning Ukraine's membership permanently. But they're not doing that. In the meantime a lot of people are dying.

I'm willing to discuss both sides.

Poland and Romania were both part of the Warsaw Pact. Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, having lived for 45 years under that jurisdiction, they each decided that a different form of government was their way to move forward. Both had the choice to side with Russia moving forward and did not.

One might speculate, that having participated in the Warsaw Pact they have fully considered the stakes should they not be able to secure their land area, form of government, and overall security. Rows of F-35s are representative of that understanding.

NATO has not invaded any European country. That distinction cannot be made of Russia. Do we need to put together a list for reference? To that end, Russia's security concerns are moot.

Should Russia feel they have a security concern, the world has decided that territorial integrity and the right to self determination are somewhat sacrosanct. Russia is free to woo their neighbors into participating in the Russian federation. Russia is not free to bludgeon a people into submission. What we are witnessing now are the actions of a free people and the world to an unacceptable war.

 

[Kat Tsun]

Russian leadership probably considers protests a form of foreign agitated hybrid warfare, so NATO has not only invaded and successfully secured multiple Eastern European countries, it did so without ever firing a single shot and through convincing information-media manipulation. While the world may not invade with guns it will certainly invade with money, moral degradation, and toxic media formats that will inevitable do on the long-term what guns do in the short-term: overthrow the Russian leadership and political apparatus and destroy the Russian state.

Gerasimov has apparently attempted to distill this down using the alchemy of military science and weaponize it for Russian state use. Not to say that Russia doesn't recognize it has problems but it's generally going to view things in the lens of Russian experience.

The country that invented democratic centralism has a rather cynical view on democratic politics: Shocking but true.

 

[NeilChapman]

My understanding is that a small fraction of the 190k troops on the border have actually entered Ukraine so far

That's my point. Why would you send 200k when your adversary is at least that size and units of your adversary have been training and deploying with NATO.

If the Russians were 'all-in' they would have amassed at least 300k if not more.

 

[Moose]

IMOHO the CAP and RQ-4 flights boarding Airways and shipping lanes could clearly delimits, secure and be ready to support civilian traffic. Nobody wants another MH-17 or KAL-007. The deployment of F-35 would be a notable plus if that was the intended strategy.

Romania:
View attachment 674869

Poland:

View attachment 674870

Can't imagine why Russia thinks NATO is an existential threat.

NATO moves aircraft into position just in case and now you're using that to justify Russia's behavior? Classy.

Don't go there Sferrin. If you're not willing to discuss both side's claims like a grown up, bow out.

Russia reportedly regards Ukraine's membership in NATO as their equivalent to the Cuban missile crisis. This isn't a game.

NATO could end the crisis right now by respecting Russia's security concerns and banning Ukraine's membership permanently. But they're not doing that. In the meantime a lot of people are dying.

This is weapons-grade bullsquat. Putin launched this invasion insisting that Ukraine was a Nazi state conducting a campaign of genocide against Russians, and that it's an artificial state which was stolen from its rightful owners Russia. He further demanded not merely a ban on Ukrainian membership, but expelling members admitted since the early 1990s. He's demanded the removal of Ukraine's elected government and "destruction" of their armed forces as a precondition for negotiation, or at least he did before Ukrainians started giving as good as they got.

Moreover, the Alliance already made abundantly clear that no "frozen conflict" state under partial Russian occupation could join, hence Georgia and Moldova. In the 8 years of Ukraine's frozen conflict, NATO membership did not move one iota with the exception that is got very popular into Ukraine thanks to their being in said frozen conflict.

And that's before we discuss his 20-year campaign to control Georgia's and Ukraine's politics, his apparently successful campaign to turn Belarus into a vassal state, or his new WMD false flag insanity.

Jeff, you're about beside yourself over Australia getting too close to the US and I understand why. But examining the reasons why Russia is made nervous by NATO's proximity and what the Alliance could have done to allay those concerns is one thing. Pinning this war on it is another.

 

[Moose]

Complete and unconditional surrender

They're not going to get that. Any thoughts on the next action then let's all be honest nukes are scary but they can't be used unless you really want to end the world.

Are we really at the point that the Russians thought they could just drive past the cities, send a few special forces into Kiev, overthrow the government, put a puppet in place, go home, all within less than a week and if they can't do it they're going to kill millions?

Russia is not all in... yet. Force size demonstrates he thought they would walk in, escalate then de-escalate.

Ukraine's resistance and NATO's response makes it more likely, to me, that P may need more troops. Any indication that additional reserves are being staged?

My understanding is that a small fraction of the 190k troops on the border have actually entered Ukraine so far

Over 2/3rds of the forces staged have entered Ukraine, plus Belarus is now apparently entering the conflict in a more direct capacity now that Lukashenko is Dictator for Life.

 

[NeilChapman]

The Ukrainian army enters the cities and hides behind the backs of civilians. This is a challenge for the Russian army.
The task for the coming days is to prevent an environmental catastrophe, for this:
- take control of nuclear facilities
- power plants and dams
- isolate American biological laboratories

I'm not understanding your post. Why would the Russian army be in Ukraine with a need to protect Ukrainian civilians? Can you point to a single report where Ukrainian civilians have welcomed Russian soldiers? Every single report I've seen has been civilians rejecting 'Russian liberation.' The environmental catastrophe you mention is being caused by the Russian army. I don't want to accuse you of being disingenuous. I would like to see a basis for your assertions.

 

[Kat Tsun]

The Ukrainian army enters the cities and hides behind the backs of civilians. This is a challenge for the Russian army.
The task for the coming days is to prevent an environmental catastrophe, for this:
- take control of nuclear facilities
- power plants and dams
- isolate American biological laboratories

I'm not understanding your post. Why would the Russian army be in Ukraine with a need to protect Ukrainian civilians? Can you point to a single report where Ukrainian civilians have welcomed Russian soldiers? Every single report I've seen has been civilians rejecting 'Russian liberation.' The environmental catastrophe you mention is being caused by the Russian army. I don't want to accuse you of being disingenuous. I would like to see a basis for your assertions.

He's repeating RT talking points.

 

[NeilChapman]

Russian leadership probably considers protests a form of foreign agitated hybrid warfare, so NATO has not only invaded and successfully secured multiple Eastern European countries, it did so without ever firing a single shot and through convincing information-media manipulation. While the world may not invade with guns it will certainly invade with money, moral degradation, and toxic media formats that will inevitable do on the long-term what guns do in the short-term: overthrow the Russian leadership and political apparatus and destroy the Russian state.

Gerasimov has apparently attempted to distill this down using the alchemy of military science and weaponize it for Russian state use. Not to say that Russia doesn't recognize it has problems but it's generally going to view things in the lens of Russian experience.

The country that invented democratic centralism has a rather cynical view on democratic politics: Shocking but true.

The right to self-determination has corrupted eastern Europe!

 

[Dreamfighter]

IMOHO the CAP and RQ-4 flights boarding Airways and shipping lanes could clearly delimits, secure and be ready to support civilian traffic. Nobody wants another MH-17 or KAL-007. The deployment of F-35 would be a notable plus if that was the intended strategy.

Romania:
View attachment 674869

Poland:

View attachment 674870

Can't imagine why Russia thinks NATO is an existential threat.

NATO moves aircraft into position just in case and now you're using that to justify Russia's behavior? Classy.

Don't go there Sferrin. If you're not willing to discuss both side's claims like a grown up, bow out.

Russia reportedly regards Ukraine's membership in NATO as their equivalent to the Cuban missile crisis. This isn't a game.

NATO could end the crisis right now by respecting Russia's security concerns and banning Ukraine's membership permanently. But they're not doing that. In the meantime a lot of people are dying.

The Russian people have no reason at all to fear NATO.

The people aren't the object of discussion though. It's the state apparatus, the political-economic institutions, and the leadership:

many Russians may not enjoy being dictated to by a powerful liberal capitalist democracy.

Impossible, we Belgians have never dictated anything to the Russian people!

 

[Kat Tsun]

Russian leadership probably considers protests a form of foreign agitated hybrid warfare, so NATO has not only invaded and successfully secured multiple Eastern European countries, it did so without ever firing a single shot and through convincing information-media manipulation. While the world may not invade with guns it will certainly invade with money, moral degradation, and toxic media formats that will inevitable do on the long-term what guns do in the short-term: overthrow the Russian leadership and political apparatus and destroy the Russian state.

Gerasimov has apparently attempted to distill this down using the alchemy of military science and weaponize it for Russian state use. Not to say that Russia doesn't recognize it has problems but it's generally going to view things in the lens of Russian experience.

The country that invented democratic centralism has a rather cynical view on democratic politics: Shocking but true.

The right to self-determination has corrupted eastern Europe!

If you are the current leadership in charge, yes? That should be obvious. The purpose of a military is to protect the state apparatus, political-economic institutions, and leadership, because these are the only meaningful elements that constitute "a polity". The people never enter into it because they simply do not hold sufficient power in the relationship, especially in the age of bureaucratized apparatuses.

 

[sublight_]

Don't go there Sferrin. If you're not willing to discuss both side's claims like a grown up, bow out.

Russia reportedly regards Ukraine's membership in NATO as their equivalent to the Cuban missile crisis. This isn't a game.

NATO could end the crisis right now by respecting Russia's security concerns and banning Ukraine's membership permanently. But they're not doing that. In the meantime a lot of people are dying.

Uhm yea... This is not the twilight zone, and this prison logic of justifying really bad behavior doesn't work any more.

They invaded a sovereign nation full stop.

Glorious dictator Putin is playing a game of high stakes poker in a casino burning down. The world is evolving beyond the age of dictators. Change is coming whether he likes it or not.

 

[NeilChapman]

If you are the current leadership in charge, yes? That should be obvious. The purpose of a military is to protect the state apparatus, political-economic institutions, and leadership, because these are the only meaningful elements that constitute "a polity". The people never enter into it because they simply do not hold sufficient power in the relationship, especially in the age of bureaucratized apparatuses.

My brother, that's why these countries have rejected the form of government you propose. The people have decided that they 'enter into it.' They will not return to governments or federations where they do not 'enter into it.'

 

[icyplanetnhc (Steve)]

I’m just going to say that this war is a complete and utter waste of lives, driven by Putin’s rampant paranoia and sense of lost prestige and pride. He and the Kremlin will justify this by blaming NATO and the US, but listening to Putin’s addresses before the invasion, it’s clear that his primary motivation is the subjugation Ukraine and stopping its drift away from Russian influence. Actual concerns about NATO/US are a distant second. Rather than diversifying his economy and political reforms to try to strengthen ties, he chose military aggression. It’s a blatant attack on a sovereign nation, and a sizable part of the Russian troops probably don’t even buy into the Kremlin’s arguments.

Russia is a country of enormous potential. They produced some of the finest scientists, engineers, composers, artists, etc. And Putin is squandering all of that and engages in a pointless exercise of human cruelty.

 

[NeilChapman]

And if I were Zelensky, I wouldn´t go talk near the Belarusian border. I´d expect an ambush.

It seems he agrees with you.

 

[Archibald]

The Ukrainian army enters the cities and hides behind the backs of civilians. This is a challenge for the Russian army.
The task for the coming days is to prevent an environmental catastrophe, for this:
- take control of nuclear facilities
- power plants and dams
- isolate American biological laboratories

I'm not understanding your post. Why would the Russian army be in Ukraine with a need to protect Ukrainian civilians? Can you point to a single report where Ukrainian civilians have welcomed Russian soldiers? Every single report I've seen has been civilians rejecting 'Russian liberation.' The environmental catastrophe you mention is being caused by the Russian army. I don't want to accuse you of being disingenuous. I would like to see a basis for your assertions.

He's repeating RT talking points.

We have a winner here. WTF ?

 

[_Del_]

They invaded a sovereign nation full stop

And we all know how the West regards sovereign nations as inviolable... Unless you're Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Panama, the entire southern hemisphere (Monroe Doctrine), et al

Putin's a bastard, but it makes me laugh that the media is pretending like this all came out of the blue , and that settling political scores by violence is a new development on the world scene.

Maybe if we kept our promises to Russia and didn't move NATO eastward, or didn't instigate a coup in 2014, or the Ukraine had kept the Minsk agreements for semi-autonomy this wouldn't have happened.

(Yes, it also wouldn't happen if Russia respected international norms, but here we are.)

If your neighbor is a hot head and hates polka music, maybe don't play polka music on 11 in your backyard. That doesn't excuse him if he hits you with a bat and busts up your stereo, but it doesn't make you look very bright either.

 

[Archibald]

They invaded a sovereign nation full stop

And we all know how the West regards sovereign nations as inviolable... Unless you're Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Panama, the entire southern hemisphere (Monroe Doctrine), et al

Putin's a bastard, but it makes me laugh that the media is pretending like this all came out of the blue , and that settling political scores by violence is a new development on the world scene.

Maybe if we kept our promises to Russia and didn't move NATO eastward, or didn't instigate a coup in 2014, or the Ukraine had kept the Minsk agreements for semi-autonomy this wouldn't have happened.

(Yes, it also wouldn't happen if Russia respected international norms, but here we are.)

If your neighbor is a hot head and hates polka music, maybe don't play polka music on 11 in your backyard. That doesn't excuse him if he hits you with a bat and busts up your stereo, but it doesn't make you look very bright either.

Mostly agree with that. Bottom line: even if Putin is a bastard and the agressor, don't make the tragic mistake of thinking of Ukraine as innocent teletubies. Even if Twitter wants you to think this way. I'm resisting it.

That country is no saint, just like Zelensky himself. Corruption, for a start: it was and still is everywhere, leading to economic stagnation. And some other disturbing relationship with WWII and neo-nazis (although Ukraine is far from the only country with such issues, Balkans, cough, Orban, cough, Poland, cough - Zemmour, cough, cough).

More generally, 30 years after 1992 were are reaching a limit in democracy / NATO / EU / whatever / extension to eastern Europe. Putin might be a paranoid asshole, I'm not sure any other Russian leader would have reacted differently.
The former USSR legacy won't vanish instantly, not after such a thing like Cold War: 30 years is not enough.
Even with a saner and cooler leader in Moscow, NATO / EU / capitalism swallowing every single former Soviet satellites up to the border of Russia itself - that was bound to make Moscow nervous, one way or another.
Proof of that: Lukashenko Bielorussia. Stuck in 1985 USSR state - and unwilling to change by an inch. And Putin best ally, obviously.
It is no surprise Putin blew a fuse when an atempt at a "orange revolution" happened in 2020 right on his frontdoor. While this is no excuse for the present war, make no mistake...

 

[starviking]

Don't go there Sferrin. If you're not willing to discuss both side's claims like a grown up, bow out.

Russia reportedly regards Ukraine's membership in NATO as their equivalent to the Cuban missile crisis. This isn't a game.

NATO could end the crisis right now by respecting Russia's security concerns and banning Ukraine's membership permanently. But they're not doing that. In the meantime a lot of people are dying.

Sure, discuss both side’s claims like a grown-up. However, we don’t have to accept them if they are deranged.

Ukraine had an aspiration to be a member of NATO. There was no movement on this front at all, and there was likely to be no movement until the situation in the east of Ukraine was off the board.

NATO is a defensive alliance open to all nations on the European continent. If we accept a Russian veto on NATO membership, where does it end?

Putin has threatened severe consequences for Sweden and Finland if they move to join NATO. He has demanded NATO kicks all post-Cold War members out of the Pact.

Putin has stated Ukraine is not a sovereign state, and has also insisted that all areas under the former Russian Emire should be under his control.

Offering Ukraine up on a platter would not end this - it would just bring the dictator closer to Berlin, Paris, and London.

 

[NeilChapman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498076908860456964

View: https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1498076908860456964

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498080273690501123

View: https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/1498080273690501123

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498074409483091968

View: https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1498074409483091968

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497997019515961347

View: https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497997019515961347

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498029493033881601

View: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498029493033881601

Here Are The Options For The EU's Initiative To Restock Ukraine With Fighter Jets

A few EU countries still have jets similar to ones that Ukraine flies, which would allow them to be rushed into combat.

www.thedrive.com

The Russians must be furious at the quality of intelligence and communications President Zelenskyy and the Ukranian military command is enjoying.

 

[Archibald]

I have to say the donation of fighter jets (even second hand MiG-29s and Su-25s) completely blew my mind.
MANPADS and antitank missiles are a classic since Afghanistan and Charlie Wilson - but full blown combat jets... that's another story. And straight out of EU members stocks, damn. This tell us EU is either very angry or very worried.

 

[Kat Tsun]

If you are the current leadership in charge, yes? That should be obvious. The purpose of a military is to protect the state apparatus, political-economic institutions, and leadership, because these are the only meaningful elements that constitute "a polity". The people never enter into it because they simply do not hold sufficient power in the relationship, especially in the age of bureaucratized apparatuses.

My brother, that's why these countries have rejected the form of government you propose. The people have decided that they 'enter into it.' They will not return to governments or federations where they do not 'enter into it.'

Most Eastern European countries in NATO qualify as "basically oligarchies" or "illiberal pseudodemocratic states" at best.

So no, they didn't actually change their governments. Rather the current leadership were thrown out and replaced by a nomenklatura of nouveau riche oligarchs who could manipulate the capitalist systems they now existed in rather than staid and boring communist functionaries. Poland sits among the esteemed ranks of Saudi Arabia and Georgia for being "corrupt", while Hungary is considered as "free" as Colombia. It was not substantially more corrupt in the '80's than it is now, it was just more brutal because people agitated more.

These are not exactly ideal models when stacked next to Germany, UK, or USA, to name a few.

You could argue Turkey and Portugal/Spain were just as bad, being that Spain basically had NATO forced on it and Turkey has had more than a couple coups, and I would say that's valid. It just proves that NATO membership is no guarantee of genuine participation in the democratic ideal that it has ostensibly made its mission in the post-Cold War, which means it's bad at its supposed job.

Which sort of comes back around to the point made earlier: Why shouldn't Russia feel threatened by NATO's advance?

I guess if NATO allowed Belarus and Russia into NATO with no questions asked it wouldn't be much of an issue though, but no one from Eastern Europe would allow that. They're probably more than a little vindictive towards Russia, so the fear Russia feels from them becoming stronger than it is rather understandable.

It has much to fear from NATO, just not from all of NATO. Only certain parts of it.

 

[NeilChapman]

He's repeating RT talking points.

Kat Tsun - It may be all he has access to.

Paralay, I see you're in Russia. I hope you don't have any family or friends sent to participate in this tragedy. Russians shooting at Ukrainians. Makes no sense whatsoever.

 

[sublight_]

Lets forget all the guns and bombs for a moment. I'm about to go to bed, but I will be watching the telly first thing in the morning when the markets open. The ruble taking a catastrophic plunge off a cliff will certainly change the nature of the conversation. As we say in Texas, you boys have a good night, ya hear?

 

[Kat Tsun]

He's repeating RT talking points.

Kat Tsun - It may be all he has access to.

No, I meant you shouldn't be surprised by the silly claims.

They've been recently claiming that the United States is developing a bioweapon in Ukraine designed to kill only Russians through genetic engineering (using "science learned from developing the COVID vaccine"), that there are human deportation/experimentation camps in the West Ukraine, and that the Russian Army is there to liberate the people held in the experimentation camps guarded by Nazis.

It could be that Putin is seeking an exit strategy and formulating a narrative that gels with a "precision strike" or something.

 

[drejr]

They've been recently claiming that the United States is developing a bioweapon in Ukraine designed to kill only Russians through genetic engineering (using "science learned from developing the COVID vaccine"), that there are human deportation/experimentation camps in the West Ukraine, and that the Russian Army is there to liberate the people held in the experimentation camps guarded by Nazis.

It could be that Putin is seeking an exit strategy and formulating a narrative that gels with a "precision strike" or something.

The biolab thing started as far back as 2014 I think

 

[Dreamfighter]

If you are the current leadership in charge, yes? That should be obvious. The purpose of a military is to protect the state apparatus, political-economic institutions, and leadership, because these are the only meaningful elements that constitute "a polity". The people never enter into it because they simply do not hold sufficient power in the relationship, especially in the age of bureaucratized apparatuses.

My brother, that's why these countries have rejected the form of government you propose. The people have decided that they 'enter into it.' They will not return to governments or federations where they do not 'enter into it.'

Most Eastern European countries in NATO qualify as "basically oligarchies" or "illiberal pseudodemocratic states" at best.

Interesting...
And Russia would qualify as ... ?

 

[Kat Tsun]

If you are the current leadership in charge, yes? That should be obvious. The purpose of a military is to protect the state apparatus, political-economic institutions, and leadership, because these are the only meaningful elements that constitute "a polity". The people never enter into it because they simply do not hold sufficient power in the relationship, especially in the age of bureaucratized apparatuses.

My brother, that's why these countries have rejected the form of government you propose. The people have decided that they 'enter into it.' They will not return to governments or federations where they do not 'enter into it.'

Most Eastern European countries in NATO qualify as "basically oligarchies" or "illiberal pseudodemocratic states" at best.

Interesting...
And Russia would qualify as ... ?

Not a member of NATO seems to be the main qualification that counts against it.

What with the dizzying heights of Bulgaria and Romania counted among the ranks of "Western" nations and all, there's not really anything special Russia has going for it besides "it was once the USSR" and "it's got nukes".

So, again, it has plenty to fear from NATO, as when all members tacitly agree that Russia is "bad" on some level, it's not really going to get anywhere except if it starts dismantling itself. It's not very fair that Russia has to be the one to dismantle itself, especially when Poland/Romania/Bulgaria/Hungary and all the others didn't, because Poland or Hungary are mad at Russia over something it didn't even do?

At some point Russia loses nothing acting as "the bad guy", hence the "active defense" going on in Ukraine, and the DPR/LPR instigation.

It's sort of been a running theme that no one in Eastern Europe in NATO wants Russia to be in NATO, and most people in Eastern Europe want to see Russia "punished" in some manner because of what happened under the Warsaw Pact, so I suppose it's natural that NATO will bend itself towards being Russia's enemy.

But pretending Russia is the aggressor for the sins of the Soviet Union is a bit silly. Wasn't 1991 supposed to be some great new start? Oh, politics is path dependent. But then why is NATO half kleptocracy if it is supposed to support democracy and liberalism in a post-Cold War world?

Oh dear.

The only hope might be that the EU might be so powerfully oppressive that it will force Poland and Hungary to exit it and go their own way. That could break the cycle, since neither of these countries (famously) want to do the things expected of liberal democracies, but expect to reap all the benefits thereof. If NATO means anything in a post-Cold War world it should mean protecting liberal democracies, not pseudodemocracies and authoritarian democracies, from external threats.

As it stands NATO is rather hypocritically suggesting it protects democracies, while retaining a large plurality of armed forces who are not only not liberal democracies like Germany or Netherlands but starkly comparable to Russia in almost all metrics, it is also not imposing conditional requirements on these authoritarian states to change or lose NATO protections. Thus, these countries which are ruled by oligarchs or corrupt politicians in a manner comparable to Russia are essentially free riders who get to exclude Russia from a defense pact simply because they got in first.

I suspect this is close to the root issue Russia's leaders have with NATO, but it's something that is more a Eastern European thing tbh.

NATO has no real clauses for conditional protection, because it was a tool of containment and not political engineering, but the EU does.

They've been recently claiming that the United States is developing a bioweapon in Ukraine designed to kill only Russians through genetic engineering (using "science learned from developing the COVID vaccine"), that there are human deportation/experimentation camps in the West Ukraine, and that the Russian Army is there to liberate the people held in the experimentation camps guarded by Nazis.

It could be that Putin is seeking an exit strategy and formulating a narrative that gels with a "precision strike" or something.

The biolab thing started as far back as 2014 I think

TIL.

 

[jeffb]

IMOHO the CAP and RQ-4 flights boarding Airways and shipping lanes could clearly delimits, secure and be ready to support civilian traffic. Nobody wants another MH-17 or KAL-007. The deployment of F-35 would be a notable plus if that was the intended strategy.

Romania:
View attachment 674869

Poland:

View attachment 674870

Can't imagine why Russia thinks NATO is an existential threat.

NATO moves aircraft into position just in case and now you're using that to justify Russia's behavior? Classy.

Don't go there Sferrin. If you're not willing to discuss both side's claims like a grown up, bow out.

Russia reportedly regards Ukraine's membership in NATO as their equivalent to the Cuban missile crisis. This isn't a game.

NATO could end the crisis right now by respecting Russia's security concerns and banning Ukraine's membership permanently. But they're not doing that. In the meantime a lot of people are dying.

This is weapons-grade bullsquat. Putin launched this invasion insisting that Ukraine was a Nazi state conducting a campaign of genocide against Russians, and that it's an artificial state which was stolen from its rightful owners Russia. He further demanded not merely a ban on Ukrainian membership, but expelling members admitted since the early 1990s. He's demanded the removal of Ukraine's elected government and "destruction" of their armed forces as a precondition for negotiation, or at least he did before Ukrainians started giving as good as they got.

Moreover, the Alliance already made abundantly clear that no "frozen conflict" state under partial Russian occupation could join, hence Georgia and Moldova. In the 8 years of Ukraine's frozen conflict, NATO membership did not move one iota with the exception that is got very popular into Ukraine thanks to their being in said frozen conflict.

And that's before we discuss his 20-year campaign to control Georgia's and Ukraine's politics, his apparently successful campaign to turn Belarus into a vassal state, or his new WMD false flag insanity.

Jeff, you're about beside yourself over Australia getting too close to the US and I understand why. But examining the reasons why Russia is made nervous by NATO's proximity and what the Alliance could have done to allay those concerns is one thing. Pinning this war on it is another.

All good points Moose. I'll just ask you and everyone else to consider a couple of other points of view:

Re Nazis...

Is the US backing neo-Nazis in Ukraine?

John McCain and other State Department members have troubling ties to the ultra-nationalist Svoboda party

www.salon.com

Re NATO expansion and Ukraine's defacto membership...

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbj1AR_aAcE&t=890s&ab_channel=King%27sPolitics

 

[NeilChapman]

If you are the current leadership in charge, yes? That should be obvious. The purpose of a military is to protect the state apparatus, political-economic institutions, and leadership, because these are the only meaningful elements that constitute "a polity". The people never enter into it because they simply do not hold sufficient power in the relationship, especially in the age of bureaucratized apparatuses.

My brother, that's why these countries have rejected the form of government you propose. The people have decided that they 'enter into it.' They will not return to governments or federations where they do not 'enter into it.'

Most Eastern European countries in NATO qualify as "basically oligarchies" or "illiberal pseudodemocratic states" at best.

So no, they didn't actually change their governments. Rather the current leadership were thrown out and replaced by a nomenklatura of nouveau riche oligarchs who could manipulate the capitalist systems they now existed in rather than staid and boring communist functionaries. Poland sits among the esteemed ranks of Saudi Arabia and Georgia for being "corrupt", while Hungary is considered as "free" as Colombia. It was not substantially more corrupt in the '80's than it is now, it was just more brutal because people agitated more.

These are not exactly ideal models when stacked next to Germany, UK, or USA, to name a few.

You could argue Turkey and Portugal/Spain were just as bad, being that Spain basically had NATO forced on it and Turkey has had more than a couple coups, and I would say that's valid. It just proves that NATO membership is no guarantee of genuine participation in the democratic ideal that it has ostensibly made its mission in the post-Cold War, which means it's bad at its supposed job.

Which sort of comes back around to the point made earlier: Why shouldn't Russia feel threatened by NATO's advance?

I guess if NATO allowed Belarus and Russia into NATO with no questions asked it wouldn't be much of an issue though, but no one from Eastern Europe would allow that. They're probably more than a little vindictive towards Russia, so the fear Russia feels from them becoming stronger than it is rather understandable.

It has much to fear from NATO, just not from all of NATO. Only certain parts of it.

Whatever they may be they've rejected the Russian Federation.

The USSR had the option to participate in the Marshall Plan after WWII, and rejected it. Had she participated, Russia would likely have the largest economy and highest standard of living in Europe today. Russia had the option to peacefully integrate with Europe after the demise of the USSR, and rejected it. Russia's choices are her own.

If your point is that Russia, with a declining population of 145 million, and economy the size of Spains is threatened by NATO because of her own leaderships incompetence and bad behavior then Russia has a choice. She can change her ways and join the community of nations or continue to wallow in her own misery.

It is a sad outcome for the great Russian people.

 

[aonestudio]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498171698658648064

View: https://twitter.com/BelarusMFA/status/1498171698658648064

 

[Kat Tsun]

I hope the negotiations go well. No more brother wars.

 

[aonestudio]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498191541675958273

View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498191541675958273

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498196941519400961

View: https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1498196941519400961

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498203408116981760

View: https://twitter.com/warsmonitoring/status/1498203408116981760

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498206364245667841

View: https://twitter.com/larisamlbrown/status/1498206364245667841

 

[totoro]

Does anyone have a recent brief from the Russian MoD, concerning how many Ukrainian systems they claim to have neutralized? There's only a brief from a few days ago, which is likely out of date by now.

 

[zen]

My understanding is that a small fraction of the 190k troops on the border have actually entered Ukraine so far

That's my point. Why would you send 200k when your adversary is at least that size and units of your adversary have been training and deploying with NATO.

If the Russians were 'all-in' they would have amassed at least 300k if not more.

If the Russians were all in, we'd have seen massive rocket and artillery bombardments.
Currently they are holding back, but there are signs this is ending.

 

[aonestudio]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498215362881544194

View: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498215362881544194

 

[lancer21]

Does anyone have a recent brief from the Russian MoD, concerning how many Ukrainian systems they claim to have neutralized? There's only a brief from a few days ago, which is likely out of date by now.

There's this for a start. I saw an earlier cumulative total speaking of i believe 8 aircraft and 7 helicopters among other things, but can't look for it now (i'm in a hurry), you may find it on this same twitter channel.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498196503206191109

View: https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1498196503206191109?cxt=HHwWioCzlYXy1MopAAAA