Ukrainian Conflict NEWS ONLY !!!!
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NATO recently confirmed that cyber warfare could trigger Article 5, while Russia's nuclear doctrine explicitly includes provisions for a nuclear reaction to non-nuclear attacks that "threaten the very existence of the state". I'd tread carefully here... a response in kind (i.e. in the cyber domain) is likely, but are you willing to test that theory just yet? It could easily spill over.
Also, there has been plenty of cyber warfare against Russia by the US in the past already, under the "Defend Forward" strategy. Nobody seems to acknowledge so, but it's never been a one-way street, really.
paralay
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Do you really need the Truth? 
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I'm always open for new info.
DystopicProcurement
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To be fair he and his whole concept of Realism is also taught in many political science graduate-level classes as archaic, non quantitatively supported, or even just hand waving.
The idea that countries in 2022 would be part of a sphere of influence or a border zone is silly in a post-cold war era.
A more common concept, at least in the academic realm, is that this conflict is closer to what happens when a rapidly declining power lashes out to compensate for perceived increased security concerns or even just the decline in status itself. Normally associated with very violent colonial wars in which the costs/casualties seemed far in excess of what could be gained in money or prestige. If the Twitter rumor/report is accurate of state-sponsored media mass uploading a prewritten report on the annexation of Ukraine to be the foundation of a new unified Russian people and rebuilding of a lost power then it would make more policy sense than some realism marketing.
Not to be mean but I think it's telling that when individuals tried to find Russian products to boycott they couldn't find something besides vodka. They're the only member of the prominent security council of the UN with such little economic influence on the world. Energy exports and military might make the news on sites such as this but all the others UK/France/China/US are major players in every single industry that exists. That's not to say they don't have a technological base, they clearly do, but it's one that is replaceable to an export market. I think the Russians have significantly overestimated their importance to other countries when the costs of economic restrictions are felt, just how much of a shock this is to the global community, and have clearly underestimated the organization of Ukraine.
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An excerpt from today's Associated Press:
BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union agreed Sunday to close its airspace to Russian airlines, spend hundreds of millions of euros on buying weapons for Ukraine and ban some pro-Kremlin media outlets in its latest response to Russia’s invasion, EU officials said.
That and Germany’s announcement earlier in the day that it would almost triple its defense budget this year underscored how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was rewriting Europe’s post-World War II security and defense policy in ways that were unthinkable only a few weeks ago.
In what he described as “a defining moment for European history,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that the bloc’s 27 foreign ministers had greenlighted the unprecedented support for Ukraine and that those actions would take effect within hours.
“We have decided to use our capacities to provide lethal arms, lethal assistance, to the Ukrainian army by a value of 450 million (euros) ($502 million) … and 50 more million ($56 million) for non-lethal supplies, fuel, protective equipment,” Borrell told reporters.
Borrell said EU defense ministers will discuss Monday how to convert the funds into useful military materiel and ensure that it reaches the Ukrainian armed forces. He said Poland has agreed to act as a hub to distribute the arms and equipment.
BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union agreed Sunday to close its airspace to Russian airlines, spend hundreds of millions of euros on buying weapons for Ukraine and ban some pro-Kremlin media outlets in its latest response to Russia’s invasion, EU officials said.
That and Germany’s announcement earlier in the day that it would almost triple its defense budget this year underscored how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was rewriting Europe’s post-World War II security and defense policy in ways that were unthinkable only a few weeks ago.
In what he described as “a defining moment for European history,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that the bloc’s 27 foreign ministers had greenlighted the unprecedented support for Ukraine and that those actions would take effect within hours.
“We have decided to use our capacities to provide lethal arms, lethal assistance, to the Ukrainian army by a value of 450 million (euros) ($502 million) … and 50 more million ($56 million) for non-lethal supplies, fuel, protective equipment,” Borrell told reporters.
Borrell said EU defense ministers will discuss Monday how to convert the funds into useful military materiel and ensure that it reaches the Ukrainian armed forces. He said Poland has agreed to act as a hub to distribute the arms and equipment.
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This is getting seriously terrifying;- Latest New;- EU to supply fighter jets to Ukraine and US citizens told to leave Moscow by any means.
ru.usembassy.gov
It’s spiralling out of control, at this rate and with no moderation, I reckon there’s a 50:50 chance of some degree of nuclear exchange by this time next Sunday maybe a lot sooner.
EU Countries To Send 'Fighter Jets' To Ukraine: Borrell
EU countries will send "fighter jets" to Ukraine at Kyiv's request to help it counter the Russian air and land assault, the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday.
www.barrons.com
Security Alert: Limited Flights Into and Out of Russia
(February 27, 2022) Location: Russia Event: An increasing number of airlines are cancelling flights into and out of Russia, and numerous countries have
It’s spiralling out of control, at this rate and with no moderation, I reckon there’s a 50:50 chance of some degree of nuclear exchange by this time next Sunday maybe a lot sooner.
paralay
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The military operation in Ukraine should be completed by March 2. Then the "cleansing" of cities will begin In the coming days, the grouping of Ukrainian troops in Kramatorsk (blue oval) will be destroyed. Kiev will be completely surrounded and blocked
Unfortunately, I can't open links to Twitter, so I can't comment on them. If you are interested in the Russian view of this war, I am ready to answer
Unfortunately, I can't open links to Twitter, so I can't comment on them. If you are interested in the Russian view of this war, I am ready to answer
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Nonsense. Absolute nonsense. The Russian position is clear and the leadership of the Ukraine know what the Russians want. Meanwhile, the Associated Press is reporting a meeting between both sides today, but Russia's demands are kept vague:
"Amid the mounting tensions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office announced that the two sides would meet at an unspecified location on the Belarusian border, where a Russian delegation was waiting Sunday.
"But the Kremlin’s ultimate aims in Ukraine — and what steps might be enough to satisfy Moscow — remained unclear."
"Amid the mounting tensions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office announced that the two sides would meet at an unspecified location on the Belarusian border, where a Russian delegation was waiting Sunday.
"But the Kremlin’s ultimate aims in Ukraine — and what steps might be enough to satisfy Moscow — remained unclear."
What are the Russian demands? What will it take to cause a cease-fire?
paralay
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Then what? The current leadership steps down and Russia occupies the Ukraine as if it were East Germany during the Cold War? Or the Ukraine becomes a Russian satellite?
NeilChapman
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I just had a long talk with a Ukrainian friend that migrated to the US last year from Belarus. He has family in Belarusand Ukraine. Family is preparing options to leave Belarus but I don't want to elaborate for security reasons. No contact with Ukraine since just after this started.
Scuttlebutt from family in Belarus is that Belarus dictator is looking for excuse to enter this war in support of Russia in next 72 hours. To be clear this is scuttlebutt but scuttlebutt on the ground.
Evidently there was a law past very recently that allows Belarus to act on behalf of Russia but I have no details. Do any of our contributors have anything to add to this speculation?
Scuttlebutt from family in Belarus is that Belarus dictator is looking for excuse to enter this war in support of Russia in next 72 hours. To be clear this is scuttlebutt but scuttlebutt on the ground.
Evidently there was a law past very recently that allows Belarus to act on behalf of Russia but I have no details. Do any of our contributors have anything to add to this speculation?
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Paralay
So assuming there’s not a surrender, the city street cleaning is a Berlin/Stalingrad type street to street/house to house assault?
Will Russia use tactical nukes to avoid the inherently high assaulting personnel losses of such operations?
So assuming there’s not a surrender, the city street cleaning is a Berlin/Stalingrad type street to street/house to house assault?
Will Russia use tactical nukes to avoid the inherently high assaulting personnel losses of such operations?
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I did not suggest it was my theory or tactic, just that is might be a crunch point.
NeilChapman
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Hmmm. I don't believe we'll see any news of direct involvement. It would make more sense for US capability to remain opaque and preparing for any potential eventualities.
I'd look for news of third-party actors instead. There are a great many Eastern European hackers that are more likely to intercede.
There is no such thing as a "tactical nuke." There is a reason no country has used nuclear weapons in war since 1945.
DystopicProcurement
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They're not going to get that. Any thoughts on the next action then let's all be honest nukes are scary but they can't be used unless you really want to end the world.
Are we really at the point that the Russians thought they could just drive past the cities, send a few special forces into Kiev, overthrow the government, put a puppet in place, go home, all within less than a week and if they can't do it they're going to kill millions?
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10 minutes to Moscow. Be careful what you wish for.Russia has put the "nuclear deterrent troops" on alert. The flight time to Washington is 30 minutes
Perhaps there will soon be only Chinese on this planet
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Never gonna happen. Unless Russia can take the entire country, whatever is left of Ukraine will be welcomed into NATO with open arms. Congratulations Putin, you played yourself.
Bottleship
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What does the Ukrainian conflict look like from the outside?
The boy stopped listening to his father, he began to beat him. Several people stood around and "expressed concern." This has been going on for a hell of a long time. Someone is constantly yelling that "the jock over there will attack now." A lot of time passes. Dad continues to beat his son, he beats dad in response. At some point, "that jock" sharply stands up for the boy and knocks him down. The crowd around, "Aggressor! Aggressor!". It's almost like this bullshit. In the crowd shouting about the aggressor, the most offended man was the most offended, "no one has the right to attack anyone without my permission!" In fact, this whole situation is complete bullshit. Nobody cares about what is really happening now in Ukraine. Russia wants to show that it can conduct any military operations wherever it wants, that is, Russia wants to show itself as a "second USA", but NATO is trying to prove to itself and others that they are the strongest on the planet and that they will be eternal hegemons. In general, a big game, where all sides, of course, "for good, against evil."
"Stop the war" - these slogans appeared only after the media explained that "this is the wrong war". The wars in Afghanistan, in the Persian Gulf, etc. were "correct", there were "our good guys", and this is a "bad war", there are "bad foreign guys". The conflict in eastern Ukraine lasted 8 years, there were shootings, people were dying there, but no one gave a shit. Why? Because the politicians don't give a shit about the whole world, they don't give a shit about all the people, they are playing their own f*cking "big game". Don't believe anything they say. Many are unable to realize that they are being lied to, they have simply never seen a different point of view. The only thing that can be said for sure about the war is that people are dying there.
If you think that some "collective West" or any other force is "good" - just remember what shitty regimes were friends with during the Cold War and before it, the USA, the USSR and other countries. Cannibals, dictators, sadists, etc., "good friends". Be prudent and do not succumb to provocations.
I still don't believe in a nuclear exchange. I do not believe that politicians can be so short-sighted as to simply self-destruct. Yes, I know that the "enemy" in propaganda is portrayed as a kind of "psychopath". But I don't believe it's that bad. Moreover, one person cannot single-handedly decide on a nuclear attack.
The boy stopped listening to his father, he began to beat him. Several people stood around and "expressed concern." This has been going on for a hell of a long time. Someone is constantly yelling that "the jock over there will attack now." A lot of time passes. Dad continues to beat his son, he beats dad in response. At some point, "that jock" sharply stands up for the boy and knocks him down. The crowd around, "Aggressor! Aggressor!". It's almost like this bullshit. In the crowd shouting about the aggressor, the most offended man was the most offended, "no one has the right to attack anyone without my permission!" In fact, this whole situation is complete bullshit. Nobody cares about what is really happening now in Ukraine. Russia wants to show that it can conduct any military operations wherever it wants, that is, Russia wants to show itself as a "second USA", but NATO is trying to prove to itself and others that they are the strongest on the planet and that they will be eternal hegemons. In general, a big game, where all sides, of course, "for good, against evil."
"Stop the war" - these slogans appeared only after the media explained that "this is the wrong war". The wars in Afghanistan, in the Persian Gulf, etc. were "correct", there were "our good guys", and this is a "bad war", there are "bad foreign guys". The conflict in eastern Ukraine lasted 8 years, there were shootings, people were dying there, but no one gave a shit. Why? Because the politicians don't give a shit about the whole world, they don't give a shit about all the people, they are playing their own f*cking "big game". Don't believe anything they say. Many are unable to realize that they are being lied to, they have simply never seen a different point of view. The only thing that can be said for sure about the war is that people are dying there.
If you think that some "collective West" or any other force is "good" - just remember what shitty regimes were friends with during the Cold War and before it, the USA, the USSR and other countries. Cannibals, dictators, sadists, etc., "good friends". Be prudent and do not succumb to provocations.
I still don't believe in a nuclear exchange. I do not believe that politicians can be so short-sighted as to simply self-destruct. Yes, I know that the "enemy" in propaganda is portrayed as a kind of "psychopath". But I don't believe it's that bad. Moreover, one person cannot single-handedly decide on a nuclear attack.
Kat Tsun
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It's certainly moving in that direction.
aonestudio
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View: https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1498076908860456964
View: https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/1498080273690501123
View: https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1498074409483091968
View: https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497997019515961347
View: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498029493033881601
www.thedrive.com
View: https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/1498080273690501123
View: https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1498074409483091968
View: https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497997019515961347
View: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498029493033881601
Here Are The Options For The EU's Initiative To Restock Ukraine With Fighter Jets
A few EU countries still have jets similar to ones that Ukraine flies, which would allow them to be rushed into combat.
NeilChapman
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Providing jets? That will be a sticky wicket.
This is getting seriously terrifying;- Latest New;- EU to supply fighter jets to Ukraine and US citizens told to leave Moscow by any means.
EU Countries To Send 'Fighter Jets' To Ukraine: Borrell
EU countries will send "fighter jets" to Ukraine at Kyiv's request to help it counter the Russian air and land assault, the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday.www.barrons.com
Security Alert: Limited Flights Into and Out of Russia
(February 27, 2022) Location: Russia Event: An increasing number of airlines are cancelling flights into and out of Russia, and numerous countries have
It’s spiralling out of control, at this rate and with no moderation, I reckon there’s a 50:50 chance of some degree of nuclear exchange by this time next Sunday maybe a lot sooner.
Yeah, the supply of fighter jets is more than a little disconcerting - I hope whoever proposed that has carefully thought it through. Although to a first order it perhaps seems similar enough to handing over ATGMs and Stingers, in fact the optics are qualitatively different IMHO. Think of how the delivery is supposed to take place - the obvious route is to have them fly over to Ukraine.
A fighter jet, possibly looking like a NATO combat aircraft on IFF and certainly indistinguishable from one on radar, crossing over from NATO territory into Ukrainian airspace. What could possibly go wrong? If Russian Flankers take to lurking on the Ukrainian side so they can shoot the MiGs down at the first opportunity, do you arm them on the delivery flight? Now you have armed jets, looking exactly like NATO fighters, crossing from NATO airspace into Ukraine. Who is supposed to fly them on delivery - Ukrainians or NATO pilots? I may be missing some vital piece in the puzzle, but I fear the potential for escalation and miscalculation is sky high here.
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kaiserd
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A massive shame.
But not nearly as important as the human death toll (and countless ruined lives) of the Russian invasion (caused and inflicted by the Russians).
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Microchips are made using neon lasers. >90% of the worlds neon comes from Ukraine and Russia.
Thats not to say alternative sources can't be grown, as they can and will. But the current microchip shortage will get worse in the short term. Same for RAM and quite a few tech things reliant on primarily Russian sourced raw materials.
And this isn't an accident. Russia has done a lot of the same tactics as China - ie subsidizing certain industries to give themselves a near global monopoly.
NeilChapman
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Russia is not all in... yet. Force size demonstrates he thought they would walk in, escalate then de-escalate.
Ukraine's resistance and NATO's response makes it more likely, to me, that P may need more troops. Any indication that additional reserves are being staged?
NeilChapman
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They haven't thought it through. To the same point, I don't think the belligerents have thought through repercussions of the nuclear threat.
They'd better get it right. Air supremacy is vital for the Ukrainians and getting resources to them quickly is key. After the nuclear threat and the threat to Finland, I have the feeling that NATO may provide additional resources to Ukraine.
Bayraktars seem to be doing a number on Russian convoys. Like some of the Ukrainian discussions suggest, they are targeting Russian logistics which seems to be broken.
View: https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1498010743387664395?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1498010743387664395?s=21
Willing to bet this convoy was boxed in then wiped out by drone attacks.
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t240v6/russia_is_suffering_from_heavy_losses_while_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Sorry can’t work out why it’s posting two videos for the top link.
View: https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1498010743387664395?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1498010743387664395?s=21
Willing to bet this convoy was boxed in then wiped out by drone attacks.
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t240v6/russia_is_suffering_from_heavy_losses_while_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Sorry can’t work out why it’s posting two videos for the top link.
My observations:
- Days of old, lumbering armoured vehicles may be over. A single man hidden in a ditch or on a hill up to 600m away with an advanced, shoulder mounted weapon can destroy them with impunity, killing 3-4 men. 20 men can destroy an entire convoy. When fighting an insurgency against a well supported defender who uses civilian vehicles to get around, it can turn into a slaughter house.
- All convoys should include point defence systems or lasers to counter drones
- Drones work well against an unprepared enemy
- Logistics should not be an afterthought.
- Days of old, lumbering armoured vehicles may be over. A single man hidden in a ditch or on a hill up to 600m away with an advanced, shoulder mounted weapon can destroy them with impunity, killing 3-4 men. 20 men can destroy an entire convoy. When fighting an insurgency against a well supported defender who uses civilian vehicles to get around, it can turn into a slaughter house.
- All convoys should include point defence systems or lasers to counter drones
- Drones work well against an unprepared enemy
- Logistics should not be an afterthought.
jeffb
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Can't imagine why Russia thinks NATO is an existential threat.
godstar23
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My understanding is that a small fraction of the 190k troops on the border have actually entered Ukraine so far
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NATO moves aircraft into position just in case and now you're using that to justify Russia's behavior? Classy.
Dreamfighter
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Personally I see very few scenario´s in which the Ukrainian Adventure ends well for Mr. Putin;
Scenario A: He unleashes the nuclear Apocalypse, everyone (who is not Chinese, like paralay says) dies.
Scenario B1: He does not unleash the nuclear Apocalypse, he also does not bomb Ukraine to hell, and he and Russia get stuck in a very, very difficult and prolonged (semi-)occupation-attempt of Ukraine. He becomes a complete paria in most parts of the world and - like most other Russians - ends up spending all future holidays at home or somewhere in Siberia, China, Syria, or North-Korea. Sooner or later the Russian people/military successfully revolt against him because of the many Russian soldiers that keep coming home in body-bags from (semi-)occupied Ukraine, for having massacred a great number of the Russian people´s Ukrainian brothers & sisters, and for wanting to visit Paris on a future holiday.
Scenario B2: He does not unleash the nuclear Apocalypse, but he bombs Ukraine completely to hell with the exception of Crimea and some occupied/friendly areas in the east, installs a puppet-master to reign the ruins of Ukraine, and the rest is much like in scenario B1 but with the difference that for having killed 90% of their Ukrainian brothers & sisters the Russian people/military only let him spend 1 final holiday.
Scenario C: A coup in the very near future (before any Apocalypses, bombings-to-hell, or holidays).
Scenario D: China comes to Mr. Putin´s & Russia´s rescue, economically but also militarily.
And if I were Zelensky, I wouldn´t go talk near the Belarusian border. I´d expect an ambush.
Scenario A: He unleashes the nuclear Apocalypse, everyone (who is not Chinese, like paralay says) dies.
Scenario B1: He does not unleash the nuclear Apocalypse, he also does not bomb Ukraine to hell, and he and Russia get stuck in a very, very difficult and prolonged (semi-)occupation-attempt of Ukraine. He becomes a complete paria in most parts of the world and - like most other Russians - ends up spending all future holidays at home or somewhere in Siberia, China, Syria, or North-Korea. Sooner or later the Russian people/military successfully revolt against him because of the many Russian soldiers that keep coming home in body-bags from (semi-)occupied Ukraine, for having massacred a great number of the Russian people´s Ukrainian brothers & sisters, and for wanting to visit Paris on a future holiday.
Scenario B2: He does not unleash the nuclear Apocalypse, but he bombs Ukraine completely to hell with the exception of Crimea and some occupied/friendly areas in the east, installs a puppet-master to reign the ruins of Ukraine, and the rest is much like in scenario B1 but with the difference that for having killed 90% of their Ukrainian brothers & sisters the Russian people/military only let him spend 1 final holiday.
Scenario C: A coup in the very near future (before any Apocalypses, bombings-to-hell, or holidays).
Scenario D: China comes to Mr. Putin´s & Russia´s rescue, economically but also militarily.
And if I were Zelensky, I wouldn´t go talk near the Belarusian border. I´d expect an ambush.
aonestudio
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Ukraine belongs in EU, Commission chief von der Leyen says
‘They are one of us and we want them in,’ European Commission president says.
www.politico.eu
jeffb
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Don't go there Sferrin. If you're not willing to discuss both side's claims like a grown up, bow out.
Russia reportedly regards Ukraine's membership in NATO as their equivalent to the Cuban missile crisis. This isn't a game.
NATO could end the crisis right now by respecting Russia's security concerns and banning Ukraine's membership permanently. But they're not doing that. In the meantime a lot of people are dying.
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