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That is reassuring. Though there are 15 other reactors in the Ukraine, so let's hope some sense prevails.
 
www.reuters.com

Russia vetoes U.N. Security action on Ukraine as China abstains

Russia vetoed a draft U.N. Security Council resolution on Friday that would have deplored Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, while China abstained from the vote - a move Western countries view as a win for showing Russia's international isolation.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Ukrainian aircraft [...] continue(s) to engage and deny air access to Russian aircraft.

Russia continues to fire missiles into Ukraine with the total number up to around 200 since the invasion began. These are a combination of ballistic and cruise-launched missiles from land, sea and air
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www.defense.gov

Ukrainian Military Fighting Bravely Against Russian Invaders

Ukrainian service members are fighting bravely — and effectively — for their country against the massive Russian onslaught, a senior defense official said.
www.defense.gov

A U.S. Defense official said that approximately half of the Russian forces that were previously amassed along Ukraine's borders are now fighting inside the country.
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www.cnbc.com

Russia hits Kharkiv gas pipeline, allies devise plan for SWIFT restrictions

As Russia awaits fresh restrictions on the capabilities of its banks, Russian troops attack a gas pipeline in Ukraine's second-largest city.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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TR1 said:
That is a Ukranian Strela-10, which panicked after Ukranians shot up their own truck nearby. They thought it was full of Russian sabetuers in Ukranian uniforms, but after checking out the dead bodies realized they were shooting their own.
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Can you cite references for this tidbit?
 
Gladly. Pathetic that people keep lying about a Russian Strela being in the middle of Kiev downtown.
More footage of that Strela:
t.me

Военный Осведомитель

ЗРК «Стрела-10» ВСУ на Оболонском проспекте Киева.
t.me t.me

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_5dE3-yPjo

Here it is driving near the infamous "sabatuer" truck.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

В Оболони показали несколько убитых солдат в форме ВСУ, многих взяли в плен. Изначально сообщалось, что данные солдаты российские, которые переоделись в украинскую форму. Сейчас украинские источники говорят, что водители машин были идентифицированы и они оказались украинскими военными. Похоже...
t.me t.me

Here is the footage of the Truck after it crashed. Ukranian guy explains they thought it was Russians, but then realized its their own.

EDIT: WARNING graphic. Dead bodies.

That Kazak shooting on it is just more friendly fire. Ukranians have had a big problem with that in last 2 days.
 
Hood said:
That is reassuring. Though there are 15 other reactors in the Ukraine, so let's hope some sense prevails.
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Good point. Radionucleids don't care whether human bodies are russians or ukrainians. Neither does cancer. It is of no sides interest to have a nuclear disaster: in 1986 radiations indifferently contaminated Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia (among other countries).
 
sublight is back said:
TR1 said:
That is a Ukranian Strela-10, which panicked after Ukranians shot up their own truck nearby. They thought it was full of Russian sabetuers in Ukranian uniforms, but after checking out the dead bodies realized they were shooting their own.
Click to expand...
Can you cite references for this tidbit?
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Even Rob Lee, a decidedly pro-american twitter poster, says it's ukrainian
https://twitter.com/x/status/1497358607247101957
View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497358607247101957
 
Apparent footage of (ukrainian?) MiG-29 firing (AAM?) at something. Is it real footage, is it recent, where did this happen etc.?
https://twitter.com/x/status/1497615184919027715
View: https://twitter.com/h4honour/status/1497615184919027715

This is claimed to be a burning MiG-29 over Zhitomir
https://twitter.com/x/status/1497561631001235458
View: https://twitter.com/Shakir__Okz/status/1497561631001235458

Claimed to be a dogfight over Vasylkiv. I know it's not much but i am (cynically) interested in the air part of all this so perhaps it will be useful for future reference. Note, i am not necessarily condoning/promoting/agreeing with whatever the video posters claims, just the footage itself.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1497498221966348288
View: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1497498221966348288
 
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TR1 said:
Gladly. Pathetic that people keep lying about a Russian Strela being in the middle of Kiev downtown.
More footage of that Strela:
t.me

Военный Осведомитель

ЗРК «Стрела-10» ВСУ на Оболонском проспекте Киева.
t.me t.me

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_5dE3-yPjo

Here it is driving near the infamous "sabatuer" truck.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

В Оболони показали несколько убитых солдат в форме ВСУ, многих взяли в плен. Изначально сообщалось, что данные солдаты российские, которые переоделись в украинскую форму. Сейчас украинские источники говорят, что водители машин были идентифицированы и они оказались украинскими военными. Похоже...
t.me t.me

Here is the footage of the Truck after it crashed. Ukranian guy explains they thought it was Russians, but then realized its their own.

EDIT: WARNING graphic. Dead bodies.

That Kazak shooting on it is just more friendly fire. Ukranians have had a big problem with that in last 2 days.
Click to expand...

A telegram post is not a reliable citation for the statement that you made. Please provide credible sources or I will ask the mods to remove your statements.
 
What the frack are Turkish A400M doing there ? Erdogan don't want to shut the straights, yet he has aircraft flying to Ukraine. Go figure.

Seems a Russian Mi-24 has been toasted / BBQ-ed in flight. And yet the damn thing kept flying, although not for long.

Seems everybody and his dog is sending MANPADS and ATGMs to Ukraine - from smallish Estonia to Germany.
I red somewhere that Ukraine soon will have more ATGMs than Russia has tanks (which doesn't mean much, it is symbolical at best).
 
An interesting map:

DraftUkraineCoTFeb25%2C2022_0.png


More here: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-8
 
Archibald said:
What the frack are Turkish A400M doing there ? Erdogan don't want to shut the straights, yet he has aircraft flying to Ukraine. Go figure.

Seems a Russian Mi-24 has been toasted / BBQ-ed in flight. And yet the damn thing kept flying, although not for long.

Seems everybody and his dog is sending MANPADS and ATGMs to Ukraine - from smallish Estonia to Germany.
I red somewhere that Ukraine soon will have more ATGMs than Russia has tanks (which doesn't mean much, it is symbolical at best).
Click to expand...
They were there when the attack started, couldn't leave.
 
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sublight is back said:
TR1 said:
That is a Ukranian Strela-10, which panicked after Ukranians shot up their own truck nearby. They thought it was full of Russian sabetuers in Ukranian uniforms, but after checking out the dead bodies realized they were shooting their own.
Click to expand...
Can you cite references for this tidbit?
Click to expand...

No, because it's from an active war zone. There are no real references aside from what you see in the video and other videos of the same thing.

The Strela doesn't have a tactical Z or white cross air identification marking (Ukrainians use a yellow cross rather than white) and videos have been circulating since before Russian troops entered Kyiv. No Russian heavy equipment is near Kyiv at the moment (the mechanized troops are slowly moving up while the VDV are attempting to keep the airhead open with constant airlifts) and the bulk of ground forces engaged were paratroopers of the VDV and assault helicopters. The only armored vehicles near Kyiv are Ukrainian for the moment and that includes a platoon of Oplots.

Russian saboteurs is one idea that you see often but there's no real evidence of this and other ideas are a confused driver and a teenager gopnik going for a joyride.

The vehicle itself is a Ukrainian Strela-10. The vehicle hit a car and the priest inside was taken to a hospital. The crew was liquidated by a Ukrainian MRAP with a .50 cal later that morning. What the actual cause or reason is not known, but the driver appears to be a novice and rather bad rather than a trained driver attempting to cause chaos. Based on how absolutely shit the driver is, and seeing the vehicle get neutralized by a MRAP, I think the idea that it's a kid is most plausible.

TR1's theory is the second most plausible: a novice crew with poor training that got scared, but that could just be "joyriding kids" since the Ukrainians are conscripting any male who can hold a rifle at the moment. OTOH spies stealing Strelas and crushing cars is also less embarrassing than the Ukrainians being bad drivers I guess.

Russian spies is not very plausible as most Russian agents have been plainclothes folks or collaborators marking targets for tactical aviation using spray paint, or locating disposition of ground troops and writing them down in notebooks. You know, actual spy stuff, like that mayor near Kharkiv who was (allegedly) spotted drawing tactical aviation markers on the ground.

A Russian spy wouldn't crush random cars on a highway, which is rather obvious and does little to achieve degradation of Ukrainian defenses, he would probably steal an engine battery or cut a timing belt or something that would actually neutralize the Strela without being obvious. Perhaps it could be that the thief was a pro-Russian Ukrainian stealing and going on a joyride, but that's not a spy, that's a joyriding kid. IMO the idea this was some deliberate sneaky infiltrator is a bit silly.

Ukrainian Army forces are just a lot more disorganized and a lot less good than they want to present for obvious reasons. On the other hand the bulk of the Russian mechanized are composed of VDV repurposed as ersatz mechanical troops so it's not like they have huge reserves or anything either.
 
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Orionblamblam said:
sublight is back said:
overscan (PaulMM) said:
Chinese aviation forums are cheering on the Russians with great satisfaction for example, which makes reading them hard to stomach for a Western audience at present.
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I wish you had not brought that to my attention.
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You learned it. You can't unlearn it.

The world is borked. Always has been. It's in moments of crisis that you find out just how screwball this planet can be.
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What? This isn't about the world but a localized conflict.
 
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Orionblamblam said:
TR1 said:
So far this conflict has been very light on civilian casualties, considering the scale of fighting is not localized. No comparison to Grozny.
Hopefully it stays that way.
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My understanding is that Putin is selling this little endeavor as "let's free our brother Ukrainian from evil Nazi overlords" or some such, as opposed to "let's lay a beatdown on those evil Foreignistanis." Consequently, it's in Russias best interest to keep the visible atrocities to a minimum. It's in the Ukrainian interest to broadcast atrocities far and wide, especially into Russia. Those of you who have read your "tMiaHM" will remember that one valuable strategy of an occupied people trying to free themselves from a bigger power populated by people who don't like atrocities, is to goad the occupiers into committing recordable and broadcastable atrocities.
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Putin didn't get what he wanted through negotiations so he started this special military operation to begin negotiations by other means. The choices are simple: The Ukrainian government signs a document agreeing to all Russian demands or the shooting continues.
 
The Russians had a lot of reconnaissance regarding major targets. I am concerned about Poland. Since a neighbor, Belarus -- White Russia -- was involved, the U.S. is sending in troops to discourage further Russian mischief, and White Russian.
 
Trident said:
Opportunistic Minnow said:
Never, ever relinquish your nuclear arsenal.
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Not sure that truly follows. The Soviet nukes on Ukrainian territory were about as much use as one of my namesake missiles would be to myself in my garden shed. I don't think the government of Ukraine ever had the operational sovereignty (as in command & control system access) to actually authorize their use. Unfortunately the security guarantees extended in exchange for relinquishing them have repeatedly proved to be just as worthless :(
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That is right on a dime! All those Nukes in Ukraine was held at sites where Soviet/Russians crew was guarding them. And the Key control for actually controlling the Nukes in Ukraine was.. wait for it.. In Moscow somewhere.
So Ukraine could not get to them and if they somehow did, they could not decrypt them without keycodes
 
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edwest2 said:
The Russians had a lot of reconnaissance regarding major targets. I am concerned about Poland. Since a neighbor, Belarus -- White Russia -- was involved, the U.S. is sending in troops to discourage further Russian mischief, and White Russian.
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umm.. which helps the Ukrainians in what way exactly here?
 
Yes, Ukraine wouldn't have nukes in 2022 either way. Either they dispose of them or they sell them to various shady lads on the black market for cash. Like how they sold entire armories of stuff prior to 2014.
 
TinWing said:
The real risk was in proliferation, which is exactly why the Clinton administration paid for the disposal of said nukes in Ukraine. It was a great success.
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Yup, weapons-grade fissile material. The idea was that it was preferable to have a single point of contact (Russia) for the ex-Soviet stocks of this potentially risky legacy, rather than dealing with an entire handful of potentially unstable regimes.
 
TinWing said:
haavarla said:
edwest2 said:
The Russians had a lot of reconnaissance regarding major targets. I am concerned about Poland. Since a neighbor, Belarus -- White Russia -- was involved, the U.S. is sending in troops to discourage further Russian mischief, and White Russian.
Click to expand...
umm.. which helps the Ukrainians in what way exactly here?
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I think the Ukrainians are now facing the consequences of 30 years of economic and demographic decline. They haven’t been able to perform a census since 2001, but the population in that year of 44 million might only be 35 million in 2022 due to falling birthrates, economic emigration and a general sense of despair. There is no help for the Ukrainians. To quote Julius Caesar, “The die is cast.”

Having said all of that, the United States and the EU could have revitalized Antonov with orders after 2014. The same is true of Motors Sich. Instead of ordering something useful, like a new production run of An-124s, or making Motors Sich a major subcontractor for Western gas turbine engines, nothing was done except for throwing some money to the political class. Ukraine had a lot of latent productive capacity, all of which was neglected after 2014.
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Very notable that one party, a rather important party, you know - the party that almost every other country in the world would hold responsible for what they themselves are currently doing - isn’t mentioned at all.
Truly bizarre and perhaps representative of the mental and moral gymnastics some may now feel are required of them.
 
TinWing said:
haavarla said:
edwest2 said:
The Russians had a lot of reconnaissance regarding major targets. I am concerned about Poland. Since a neighbor, Belarus -- White Russia -- was involved, the U.S. is sending in troops to discourage further Russian mischief, and White Russian.
Click to expand...
umm.. which helps the Ukrainians in what way exactly here?
Click to expand...
I think the Ukrainians are now facing the consequences of 30 years of economic and demographic decline. They haven’t been able to perform a census since 2001, but the population in that year of 44 million might only be 35 million in 2022 due to falling birthrates, economic emigration and a general sense of despair. There is no help for the Ukrainians. To quote Julius Caesar, “The die is cast.”

Having said all of that, the United States and the EU could have revitalized Antonov with orders after 2014. The same is true of Motors Sich. Instead of ordering something useful, like a new production run of An-124s, or making Motors Sich a major subcontractor for Western gas turbine engines, nothing was done except for throwing some money to the political class. Ukraine had a lot of latent productive capacity, all of which was neglected after 2014.
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Well i am sure the Lobbyist of Boeing and Airbus, all the same is very happy about the Antonov decline. One less competitor to worry about
 
TinWing said:
I think the Ukrainians are now facing the consequences of 30 years of economic and demographic decline. They haven’t been able to perform a census since 2001, but the population in that year of 44 million might only be 35 million in 2022 due to falling birthrates, economic emigration and a general sense of despair. There is no help for the Ukrainians. To quote Julius Caesar, “The die is cast.”

Having said all of that, the United States and the EU could have revitalized Antonov with orders after 2014. The same is true of Motors Sich. Instead of ordering something useful, like a new production run of An-124s, or making Motors Sich a major subcontractor for Western gas turbine engines, nothing was done except for throwing some money to the political class. Ukraine had a lot of latent productive capacity, all of which was neglected after 2014.
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The EU and USA were never going to support a potential competitor.
 
I’m sure Ukrainians really appreciate your “timely” “sympathy” re: perfectly reasonable UK and European air lifter procurement decisions decades ago.
However as you are aware they do have other more pressing concerns at the moment.
 
haavarla said:
edwest2 said:
The Russians had a lot of reconnaissance regarding major targets. I am concerned about Poland. Since a neighbor, Belarus -- White Russia -- was involved, the U.S. is sending in troops to discourage further Russian mischief, and White Russian.
Click to expand...
umm.. which helps the Ukrainians in what way exactly here?
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I want to see an end to this but the Ukrainians are on the defensive since prior negotiations did not give the Russians what they wanted. The Russian military is attacking from three sides. At this time, unless the Ukrainians give the Russians what they want, I fear there will be a permanent occupation. Western Europe and the U.S. want to see the conflict contained, and not spreading to other eastern European countries like Poland. The U.S. has no plans to send troops to help the Ukraine.
 
 
Based on the maps of Russian controlled areas we're seeing it's difficult to see what the Russian plan is here. Obviously they're looking to remove/replace the Ukrainian govt. but the way they're trying to do it is just confusing.

Possibly they're trying to minimise civilian casualties. More likely the NLAWS are extremely effective and Russian morale is breaking down in the face of the defence. Dare say this was sold to the Russian troops as a cake-walk and it ain't.

Can't help but think that the Russians are screwed if they don't find a way to close the Polish border and stop the Ukrainians resupplying.

The Russians really need this to be a Grenada, not another Afghanistan.

My two cents...
 
jeffb said:
Based on the maps of Russian controlled areas we're seeing it's difficult to see what the Russian plan is here. Obviously they're looking to remove/replace the Ukrainian govt. but the way they're trying to do it is just confusing.
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Because it didn't go to plan.

The plan itself is fairly obvious: drive through the East until you hit the Dneiper, take Kherson and move up central region, and both the heavy armor in the East and the Marines in the South join with the airborne troops in Kyiv. Ukraine falls rapidly. Halt for rearm/refit and continue to Lviv if they still put up a fight.

jeffb said:
Possibly they're trying to minimise civilian casualties.
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Yes. The Russians were prepared to be welcomed as liberators, not as conquerors.

It must be perplexing for them, at all levels, since the FSB said that something like 10% of Eastern Ukrainians "approve" of the government, and estimated that 40-50% of the country as a whole approved of Zelenskyy and the Rada. That said they've been planning this invasion for months with Feb 22nd as the target date, too, because Zhirinovsky said so on his hot takes TV show. So the FSB thing was probably just a final check rather than a initiator.

jeffb said:
More likely the NLAWS are extremely effective and Russian morale is breaking down in the face of the defence.
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It has very little to do with NLAW (I guess that helps a bit, but it's not some magic wand) and more likely to do with the fact that the US is providing radar coverage of the entire country with Global Hawks and air battle management with E-3 Sentries. The Ukrainian Air Force got enough planes off the ground given US warning that they can contest Kyiv's airspace and are probably basing out of Poland and Romania for the moment.

As for morale, the VDV has lost roughly 4,000 KIA in Kyiv and the 11th Gds Airborne Brigade probably no longer exists. They are understandably upset, but they're sort of battering a motor infantry brigade and tank battalion (4th Rapid Reaction Brigade, basically BTR-4/MRAP motor rifles) with an airborne division, so that's to be expected I guess. They have another two brigades in reserve in Belarus (not for long, if they aren't already engaged) and the General Staff wants the city taken before Monday. Kharkiv or Mariupol will likely be hit by heavy flamethrowers TOS-1 from the Chemical Troops either today or Monday. It's hard to tell because I think the troops in either city use the same tactical ID markings and both are major objectives for the ground advance forces.

I suspect this because TOS-1 heavy flamethrowers were seen in Tokmak, but they may only be getting used on military targets like fighter bases. I don't know the Russian ROE on artillery but I guess it will change rapidly since the BTGs are too weak in infantry to be effective in urban fighting without mass artillery support. Tokmak is roughly equidistant from Mariupol and Kharkiv but Kharkiv is bigger and on the axis of the Regular Army's tank forces. Mariupol is target of Naval Infantry and Kadyrovsty.

The Ukrainians know where every Russian armored column is better than the Russians do, but they're still getting pretty heavily mauled. While the Russians might have suffered about 4-5k KIA as of Saturday evening, the Ukrainians are probably closer to double this at 8k; this is based on blood product availability in the two countries.

Source: I know a guy who knows a guy who's a Bde Cmdr in theater and the guy I know is a trauma doc who was in the Soviet military.
 
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I think An-225 has been gone for a while now. There were fires all over Hostomel from Ukrainian shelling trying to dislodge VDV yesterday.

1645936431914.png

NASA-FIRMS

Fire Information for Resource Management System
firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov
 
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