T-X Trainer - Boeing T-7A Red Hawk

[red admiral]

Given this latest development, I now strongly believe this competition is LM's to lose.

For a programme that's supposedly focused on cost, the USAF is going to end up with the most expensive trainer money can buy (but most capable). What a joke.

 

[NUSNA_Moebius]

Even with NG+BAe out of the running, it doesn't mean the N400NT was a waste of time. They might still offer it to other nation's programs or like so many Scaled Composites' built aircraft, enjoy a long career in research.

I'm still waiting for pictures of N400 properly showing the planform ;D

 

[sferrin]

Given this latest development, I now strongly believe this competition is LM's to lose.

For a programme that's supposedly focused on cost, the USAF is going to end up with the most expensive trainer money can buy (but most capable). What a joke.

So buying the trainer that best meets the requirements is a joke? Why? Also Boeing is still kicking so LM doesn't have a lock on it. (Though it would be the smart choice.)

 

[XP67_Moonbat]

I'm with the earlier post about the N 400 not being a total loss. Maybe there's life after death as a technology demonstrator. Or possible marketing as an overseas light fighter? Any countries in need of a good F-5 replacement?

 

[CiTrus90]

Secondly, if they are using a gated process (which I strongly believe to be the case) they would possibly have passed through earlier decision gates but then reached a point where the business case was no longer viable and therefore decided to pull out. From their perspective it is probably the wise decision.

I think you're right on this, but still, they never really tried to market it as aggressively as the other competitors AFAIK. The only ads I've seen from them were from mid-late 2015, and maybe another one in early 2016?
I always thought that if a company wasn't sure about the value of a contract there would be no metal cut (or rather composites molded, today).

Given this latest development, I now strongly believe this competition is LM's to lose.

Due to the political landscape I think it's going to be Boeing's honestly. And I hope to be wrong.

Even with NG+BAe out of the running, it doesn't mean the N400NT was a waste of time. They might still offer it to other nation's programs or like so many Scaled Composites' built aircraft, enjoy a long career in research.

I'm still waiting for pictures of N400 properly showing the planform ;D

BTW I too agree on the fact that the N400 will probably have a long career in research, my doubt though is, if this was not the plan all along for it.

And yeah, I'd like to see the wings planform and dimensions too.

 

[XP67_Moonbat]

On planform, I second that

 

[marauder2048]

Was there anything substantial changed between the Draft RFI issued over the summer and the final document early January?

Some clarifications were provided in January but the Air Force is firm on the initial (and only specified) EMD contract funding allotment which is extremely austere.
And the Air Force is not providing any incentive to accelerate the 54 month EMD phase and won't guarantee accelerated funding or milestones.

So deep pockets are needed.

 

[Mike Pryce]

Scaled have never built anything that became a successful series production aircraft.

Closest was the Starship, but that was very expensive to make and needed Beech to try to productionise it.

I wonder if the N400 was similar - a one off experimental plane that could not be readily productionised?

On the Hawk HSA deliberately made it more expensive to build in order to reduce support costs, having learned from the Gnat that low unit cost can lead to high support costs. With no design ever achieving series production or wide scale service, and virtually no experience of supporting in service aircraft, maybe Scaled achieved the high unit cost without resulting LCC benefits, or low unit cost but high support ones?

It's a shame BAE or Northrop design teams did not have a proper attempt, but I guess the Talon and Hawk platform designers are long gone, with just system upgrade engineers left.

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

Scaled have never built anything that became a successful series production aircraft.

Closest was the Starship, but that was very expensive to make and needed Beech to try to productionise it.

I wonder if the N400 was similar - a one off experimental plane that could not be readily productionised?

On the Hawk HSA deliberately made it more expensive to build in order to reduce support costs, having learned from the Gnat that low unit cost can lead to high support costs. With no design ever achieving series production or wide scale service, and virtually no experience of supporting in service aircraft, maybe Scaled achieved the high unit cost without resulting LCC benefits, or low unit cost but high support ones?

It's a shame BAE or Northrop design teams did not have a proper attempt, but I guess the Talon and Hawk platform designers are long gone, with just system upgrade engineers left.

Talon designers are not just "gone" from Northrop, they are gone from the world. It was a long time ago.

 

[Mike Pryce]

Small chance a 25 year old working on F-5H in early 80s at Northrop might still be about. But yes, a long time ago in any case. Hawk 100 same timeframe.

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

Small chance a 25 year old working on F-5H in early 80s at Northrop might still be about. But yes, a long time ago in any case. Hawk 100 same timeframe.

I was thinking of 1950s when the T-38 was actually designed, Welko Gasich, Lee Begin, Walt Fellers... all gone, I believe.

 

[kcran567]

The N400 was my favorite. Too bad.

The from the side pics it looks like a bigger T-38 trapezoidal type with with rounded tip and small LEX in front.
Maybe a smallish delta like the A-4?

 

[doolyii]

It's such a sad news. Great new cycle following T38-F5-F20-YF17-F18 won't happen again...I don't see any chance other than T-50 if the cost / risk are main driver..

 

[NeilChapman]

It's such a sad news. Great new cycle following T38-F5-F20-YF17-F18 won't happen again...I don't see any chance other than T-50 if the cost / risk are main driver..

Building 350 airframes inexpensively has to be difficult. By the time you ramp up, you're done. And, as many have said, there is an abundance of inexpensive trainers for the world to purchase.

For political reasons (Korea), I'd like to see the T-50 win.

For the US taxpayers, I'd like to see the T-50 win.

Because I'm disgusted with the Boeing muck-up of the KC-46, I'd like to see Boeing lose.

Because it's a pretty little thing, I'd like to see Boeing win.

Tough call! We really don't have any insight into the rest each companies offering, do we?

 

[flateric]

The from the side pics it looks like a bigger T-38 trapezoidal type with with rounded tip and small LEX in front.

It's clearly seen here that wing trailing edge slightly swept forward (look at flaps).

 

[red admiral]

So buying the trainer that best meets the requirements is a joke? Why? Also Boeing is still kicking so LM doesn't have a lock on it. (Though it would be the smart choice.)

The requirements define most of the cost. USAF will end up paying through the nose for performance levels that no other air force has decided it needs. This is the exact opposite of the "80% solution for 50% of the cost", which is a complete joke for what is supposed to be a cost-driven programme.

 

[GTX]

but still, they never really tried to market it as aggressively as the other competitors AFAIK. The only ads I've seen from them were from mid-late 2015, and maybe another one in early 2016?

Why would they? Does anyone really believe that some adverts in the popular press (including aviation mags etc) is going to sway those who make the decisions on programs such as this?

 

[marauder2048]

So buying the trainer that best meets the requirements is a joke? Why? Also Boeing is still kicking so LM doesn't have a lock on it. (Though it would be the smart choice.)

The requirements define most of the cost. USAF will end up paying through the nose for performance levels that no other air force has decided it needs. This is the exact opposite of the "80% solution for 50% of the cost", which is a complete joke for what is supposed to be a cost-driven programme.

If you can "download" a good portion of the advanced training syllabus from much higher CPFH F-16/F-15/F-35/F-22 it's a huge win cost-wise for the Air Force.

The intrinsic performance capabilities of the trainer will largely determine what portion that is.

 

[gtg947h]

Something changed materially between the RFI's of two years ago the December RFP for them to spend a month crunching numbers and to walk away saying, "Not worth the investment".

If I had to guess, N-G leadership knew the T-X program was going to be low margin, and when you have B-21 on your plate plus a shot at things like the JSTARS replacement (higher margin) it makes sense to concentrate your efforts there.

 

[Airplane]

Something changed materially between the RFI's of two years ago the December RFP for them to spend a month crunching numbers and to walk away saying, "Not worth the investment".

If I had to guess, N-G leadership knew the T-X program was going to be low margin, and when you have B-21 on your plate plus a shot at things like the JSTARS replacement (higher margin) it makes sense to concentrate your efforts there.

80 to 100 B21s isn't enough to rest your laurels on. Remember whe Rockwell built the space shuttle and built 100 Bones? They now build powertools. Lets hope NG fairs better with PCA because an air force with one major manufacturer isn't good business.

 

[kcran567]

The from the side pics it looks like a bigger T-38 trapezoidal type with with rounded tip and small LEX in front.

It's clearly seen here that wing trailing edge slightly swept forward (look at flaps).

Yes I agree. Looks like a slightly rounded gothic/ogival small delta with forward swept trailing edge?

 

[NeilChapman]

Something changed materially between the RFI's of two years ago the December RFP for them to spend a month crunching numbers and to walk away saying, "Not worth the investment".

If I had to guess, N-G leadership knew the T-X program was going to be low margin, and when you have B-21 on your plate plus a shot at things like the JSTARS replacement (higher margin) it makes sense to concentrate your efforts there.

80 to 100 B21s isn't enough to rest your laurels on. Remember whe Rockwell built the space shuttle and built 100 Bones? They now build powertools. Lets hope NG fairs better with PCA because an air force with one major manufacturer isn't good business.

IIRC, NG is on the hook pretty good for B-21. The performance portions of the EMD contract have some very specific timelines that must be met. It's been widely written that pricing was calculated with a particularly sharp pencil.

Also recall watching the congressional testimony from one of the AF Generals re: the 100 bomber count. He stated that they might request more or there may be an alternative airframe. That made me consider a follow-on to B-21 e.g. a plan-of-record so to speak of expected program changes similar to the Japanese destroyer program where they're building their way through technology advancements. There is still quite a bit of parallel tech dev going on.

I like NG. Like that they've built out in Florida to manage costs. Like what they've done with the F-35 center fuselage manufacturing. Like the purchase of Scaled and what it's brought to the company. And while I'm disappointed that N400 won't be part of T-X I'm confident, as an engineering company, they're even more disappointed. It just sounds like their plate is full. Sometimes it's just not the right time to take on a project.

 

[marauder2048]

Something changed materially between the RFI's of two years ago the December RFP for them to spend a month crunching numbers and to walk away saying, "Not worth the investment".

If I had to guess, N-G leadership knew the T-X program was going to be low margin, and when you have B-21 on your plate plus a shot at things like the JSTARS replacement (higher margin) it makes sense to concentrate your efforts there.

80 to 100 B21s isn't enough to rest your laurels on. Remember whe Rockwell built the space shuttle and built 100 Bones? They now build powertools. Lets hope NG fairs better with PCA because an air force with one major manufacturer isn't good business.

In their 4th quarter earnings, NG mentioned "several large restricted awards" in 2016.
And there's a possibility that the workforce that was to transition from the Super Bug
to the trainer is staying put for a bit longer.

 

[Hood]

The Boeing/SAAB entry still seems ambitious to pitch a new aircraft for a reasonably small niche US purchase. Are they hoping for exports off the back of US-largesse (like the Beechcraft Texan II has benefited from)? I wonder if SAAB is looking ahead to the European market when the current crop of older trainers retire and when Germany replaces its T-38 trainers, and possibly with an eye ahead to when the NFTC seeks a Hawk replacement?
It does seem to be a crowded market though but looking ahead to 2025+ a fresh sheet design with the right training avionics package will probably have the edge, so its surprising NG have abandoned T-X unless they think they might find a private-venture niche in the export market like the PC-21 has. It also could be a case that NG is looking to concentrate on high-end cutting edge stealth and UCAV technology rather than a pretty mundane (in comparison) trainer.

I wouldn't even be surprised if T-X doesn't get recast and re-issued again for an off-the-shelf type if costs really are the major driver. It seems odd that the Leonardo M-146 could be that uncompetitive on costs compared to the T-50 or the new designs to force Leonardo to give up (assuming they can't find another US partner).

 

[Mark Nankivil]

But I can't see Boeing/SAAB just saying "I quit" either - at some point a clean sheet design needs to be done otherwise we'd be using the T-6/SNJ for training

Being somewhat bias with Boeing (McDonnell Douglas) being here in St. Louis where I live, if they can indeed create a design that breaks some of the manufacture and operating upward cost trends, all the more power to them.

Time will tell... Mark

 

[fightingirish]

It looks like, that an updated version of the ATG/IAI Javelin personal jet might join the T-X competition.

Links:
https://twitter.com/JamesDrewNews/status/827551971334823936
https://twitter.com/JamesDrewNews/status/827552853690564615

 

[fightingirish]

??? B)

Checkout Rud Aero's RA-6, a military derivative of Javelin. Rud signed licensing agreement with Stavatti

Link: https://twitter.com/JamesDrewNews/status/827565867265310723

 

[Flyaway]

U.S. Air Force T-X Competition Narrows As Price Takes Precedence

http://aviationweek.com/defense/us-air-force-t-x-competition-narrows-price-takes-precedence

 

[TomS]

??? B)

Checkout Rud Aero's RA-6, a military derivative of Javelin. Rud signed licensing agreement with Stavatti

Link: https://twitter.com/JamesDrewNews/status/827565867265310723

Well, this is obviously a joke. Right? Stavatti isn't an aircraft builder, it's a fantasy website with pretensions of grandeur. And Rud Aero appears to have built a grand total of two aircraft. Not types, individual aircraft.

Not to mention there's an obvious element missing here -- the whole rest of the program, which includes simulators and flight tracking systems. The aircraft might not even be the largest element of T-X, and any "team" that claims to be bidding on T-X and doesn't have world-class simulation subs on board hasn't even read the requirements documents.

 

[kcran567]

Maybe NG might be playing poker and hoping for a larger contract of 400-500 aircraft? doesn't make sense the TX isn't an insignificant contract at all and would lead to maybe 1000 aircraft if foreign buyers are also interested. Maybe a Lo compliment for the F-35 if the F-35 procurement is severely cut back due to budget realities. Would like to see the N400 win the trainer competition and see some aggressor N400s also. Was hoping that NG would not drop out.

Maybe NG wasnt happy with the performance of the N400? but seems doubtful. I thought the incentives were there for both performance & cost and looked like the N400 was a good balance of both.

 

[Airplane]

Maybe NG might be playing poker and hoping for a larger contract of 400-500 aircraft? doesn't make sense the TX isn't an insignificant contract at all and would lead to maybe 1000 aircraft if foreign buyers are also interested. Maybe a Lo compliment for the F-35 if the F-35 procurement is severely cut back due to budget realities. Would like to see the N400 win the trainer competition and see some aggressor N400s also. Was hoping that NG would not drop out.

Maybe NG wasnt happy with the performance of the N400? but seems doubtful. I thought the incentives were there for both performance & cost and looked like the N400 was a good balance of both.

Unless there is something coming out of a black project all those engineers need to be working on more than the new bomber. Even if they build more than 100, the design engineers aren't the guys on the line doing to nuts and bolts work. So, some hypothetical mystery A/C, the new bomber, and PCA, then maybe they don't want to chase the TX.

 

[yasotay]

??? B)

Checkout Rud Aero's RA-6, a military derivative of Javelin. Rud signed licensing agreement with Stavatti

Link: https://twitter.com/JamesDrewNews/status/827565867265310723

Well, this is obviously a joke. Right? Satvatti isn't an aircraft builder, it's a fantasy website with pretensions of grandeur. And Rud Aero appears to have built a grand total of two aircraft. Not types, individual aircraft.

Not to mention there's an obvious element missing here -- the whole rest of the program, which includes simulators and flight tracking systems. The aircraft might not even be the largest element of T-X, and any "team" that claims to be bidding on T-X and doesn't have world-class simulation subs on board hasn't even read the requirements documents.

Just when you thought this program was finished with bizarre ... Stavatti.

 

[XP67_Moonbat]

Just when you thought it couldn't get any weirder with that Rud Aero/Stavatti murmur.... it gets even more weird!

Leonardo's back! "And there's gonna be trouble!" They're going solo this time.

http://www.combataircraft.net/2017/02/08/stop-press-leonardo-goes-it-alone-on-t-x/

 

[Flyaway]

More to the above.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/leonardo-returns-to-t-x-competition-alone-433970/

 

[FighterJock]

That is a bad move by Leonardo, when was the last time the US selected a foreign designed aircraft for the USAF?

 

[GTX]

That is a bad move by Leonardo, when was the last time the US selected a foreign designed aircraft for the USAF?

Even moreso given current regime in US. Mind you, Leonardo Execs are probably looking at it this way: "it is the biggest trainer competition in the world right now and one that will potentially influence a number of other selections. We have one of the top two new trainers in the world with a bunch of wins already. Even if the chance are slim, we should still throw our hat into the ring...". That said though, I don't fancy their chances are would caution that sometimes the smart move is to know when to say "no".

 

[martinbayer]

That is a bad move by Leonardo, when was the last time the US selected a foreign designed aircraft for the USAF?

Even moreso given current regime in US. Mind you, Leonardo Execs are probably looking at it this way: "it is the biggest trainer competition in the world right now and one that will potentially influence a number of other selections. We have one of the top two new trainers in the world with a bunch of wins already. Even if the chance are slim, we should still throw our hat into the ring...". That said though, I don't fancy their chances are would caution that sometimes the smart move is to know when to say "no".

I would guess that most of the money needed for participating in the competition is already sunk, so at this point they likely really don't stand to lose a whole lot if they're not selected, but you can't win if you don't play.

 

[kcran567]

What will be done to the N400 prototype from Northrop will it be destroyed or any chance It could be kept for tech demonstrator or still any chance it could be produced for another contract?

 

[Airplane]

What will be done to the N400 prototype from Northrop will it be destroyed or any chance It could be kept for tech demonstrator or still any chance it could be produced for another contract?

Lawn art.

 

[FighterJock]

Hope they send it to a museum somewhere in the US. Smithsonian? I can't really see them chopping it up and throwing the resulting pieces onto a scrap heap.