So if my count is right, the UK is the only partner that hasn’t honored its original commitment.

Original orders -> Current orders
UK 232 -> 160
Germany 180 -> 201
Italy 121 -> 120
Spain 87 -> 118

Which in hindsight means that the UK got 10% more workshare than it deserved and Germany + Spain each should have gotten 5% more workshare…
The UK very cleverly did a government to government sale from the UK's commitment of 232 and shifted 72 to RSAF...so they met their 232 commitment.

They then went on to actually sell Typhoon to Qatar and Oman as well....German's sole 'sale' was passing on some German T1's to Austria (so by your calculation they didn't originally meet their commitment either). Spanish haven't sold a thing...Italy managed to get a sale for 24 to Kuwait.

The UK has also been the one consortium member over the hard days of the 00's and 10's who actually pushed things forward...
No UK means no Meteor, no radar upgrades, no air to ground enhancements. To be honest I don't think there would have been any changes until now with a mad panic on....
 
The UK very cleverly did a government to government sale from the UK's commitment of 232 and shifted 72 to RSAF...so they met their 232 commitment.
In other words: cheating. Let's be honest the UK did not meet their 232 commitment.

They then went on to actually sell Typhoon to Qatar and Oman as well....German's sole 'sale' was passing on some German T1's to Austria (so by your calculation they didn't originally meet their commitment either). Spanish haven't sold a thing...Italy managed to get a sale for 24 to Kuwait.

The Germans replaced the T1s given to Austria with additonal T2s.
But either way they only reached the original commitment of 180 with the most recent orders.
 
Just to note these Typhoon are specifically to replace Tranche 1.

There will be a lot of Tranche 1 Typhoon coming free before 2030 at this rate...>100 airframes. All with at least half their operational life still left in them...
But with very limited upgradability and little commonality with the rest of the fleet.

Might be good for Mexico, however.
 
But with very limited upgradability and little commonality with the rest of the fleet.
I've been saying for an age...do the AESA antenna upgrade....and send to Ukraine. As a medium term fighter its the only one that makes any sense for them....
 
Gareth was spot on about Typhoon for Italy....when no-one else believed it...

But I think this might be far more hope than reality...I can't see the Labour Government, pre-SDR, and with a mere couple of weeks in power actually doing this...

The only thing that would actually make sense long term would be a purchase of EK...

View: https://twitter.com/GarethJennings3/status/1814727805269057828?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


View: https://twitter.com/GarethJennings3/status/1814727812655555028
 
Acquisition of a small number (say 14) in the EW/SEAD role is a capability the UK currently lacks and would be useful but I dont think they will announce a large new acquisition during a defence review unless BAE has told them we need this to keep the future GCAP line running.

It was announced this week that the BAE had completed all aircraft integration ground testing of the ECRS MKII in the anechoic chamber, meaning the completion of all ground testing activities and just leaving flight testing to complete which might be the progress/announcement at Farnborough, maybe accelerated deployment to actual aircraft.
 
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Acquisition of a small number (say 14) in the EW/SEAD role is a capability the UK currently lacks and would be useful but I dont think they will announce a large new acquisition during a defence review unless BAE has told them we need this to keep the future GCAP line running.
Agreed, the UK getting their own squadron of Wild Weasels would be a really useful thing for them to pursue.

And if I were a service chief, I might make it known through back channels that I'd really like to buy this so if BAE could throw me a line to beat Treasury up with it'd be much appreciated...
 
So far the US uses F-35A modified with reinforcement structural frame modifications to allow extra munition carrying in the SEAD role (allowing a larger GBU-39 and AGM-154 loadout than standard) and Im not sure F-35B's will be able to carry HARM weapons internally. The F-35 at present also doesn't have wide area jamming equipment to protect other aircraft just self protection jamming.
 
Agreed, the UK getting their own squadron of Wild Weasels would be a really useful thing for them to pursue.

And if I were a service chief, I might make it known through back channels that I'd really like to buy this so if BAE could throw me a line to beat Treasury up with it'd be much appreciated...

I think RAF will have ECR Mk.2 already can operate Jammer and Attack same time also can attack radar to jammer lock on, and destroy board equipment is different compare EKR Typhoon so no need wild weasel squadron, they plan arm with SPEAR 3 and SPEAR EW. Just upgrade Radar.

which different Germany wants EKR Typhoon with ECR MK.1 with extra Jammer Pod.
 
Acquisition of a small number (say 14) in the EW/SEAD role is a capability the UK currently lacks and would be useful but I dont think they will announce a large new acquisition during a defence review unless BAE has told them we need this to keep the future GCAP line running.

I think this is the only realistic scenario....but its very unlikely. EK could support Typhoon, F-35 and GCAP in the future (the 2 seater would have been better though).

It was announced this week that the BAE had completed all aircraft integration ground testing of the ECRS MKII in the anechoic chamber, meaning the completion of all ground testing activities and just leaving flight testing to complete which might be the progress/announcement at Farnborough, maybe accelerated deployment to actual aircraft.

Or a commitment to upgrade the Tranche 2 to ECRS mk.2 as well...would have thought this was more likely, but still unlikely, than new production.

So far the US uses F-35A modified with reinforcement structural frame modifications to allow extra munition carrying in the SEAD role (allowing a larger GBU-39 and AGM-154 loadout than standard) and Im not sure F-35B's will be able to carry HARM weapons internally. The F-35 at present also doesn't have wide area jamming equipment to protect other aircraft just self protection jamming.

Think our weapon of choice will continue to be Spear and Spear EW for DEAD.
 
So far the US uses F-35A modified with reinforcement structural frame modifications to allow extra munition carrying in the SEAD role (allowing a larger GBU-39 and AGM-154 loadout than standard) and Im not sure F-35B's will be able to carry HARM weapons internally. The F-35 at present also doesn't have wide area jamming equipment to protect other aircraft just self protection jamming.
Spear EW. And nor does Tornado ECR and EF EK
 
Tornado ECR had Ceberus Jammer pods (Italians had it carried internally in place of the gun) which had both self protection and area jam (for escort) unlike the 1979 British Skyshadow ECM pod and it was developed through three progressively more capable Marks upto Mark IV in 1998 as well as a sister of the mark IV the Tornado Self Protection Jammer (TSPJ) which had only self protection capability. In addition the Tornado ECR carried two BOZ counter measure pods and HARM missiles.
 
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I think RAF will have ECR Mk.2 already can operate Jammer and Attack same time also can attack radar to jammer lock on, and destroy board equipment is different compare EKR Typhoon so no need wild weasel squadron, they plan arm with SPEAR 3 and SPEAR EW. Just upgrade Radar.

which different Germany wants EKR Typhoon with ECR MK.1 with extra Jammer Pod.
it's same capability F-35 an/apg-81 has.
i.e. very powerful, but front only x-band jamming.
 
it's same capability F-35 an/apg-81 has.
i.e. very powerful, but front only x-band jamming.
basically ECR Mk.2 more powerfully yet only Front jamming area as APG-81, i got it now thank you for explain. 90+/- Cover

EKR has 360 degrees cover use pod jammer and other equipment in different types with ECR MK.1 ? pretty cool ;-)

is it correct?
 
And once upon a time there was the plan for dedicated jammer pods / drones with it for the Luftwaffe. But they probaly decided to base that of from an FCAS UCAV design if the budget is there sometimes in the future.
 
which have very limited jamming capabilities. forward arc X-band only.
Well, I doubt typhoon EK(i.e. without true escort/stand off jamming, just with gripen e self-defense suit and ARM capability) counts as comprehensive either. I.e. it's just an old-style wild wiesel aircraft (admittedly, with probably the best western off the shelf self-protection set available now...but it won't be available now) and not much more. Wild wiesel with capabilities others get on their normal aircraft.

True EW pods (and a dedicated EW suit to support them) and iirc even EW officer station were part of ECR proposal, and apparently no one financed it.

So there is no fullbackski, much less growlerski.
And again arexis typhoon alone, Imho f-35 is a better air defense destroyer.
 
Isnt ECRS Mk.0 and Mk.1 the same hardware just with more advanced software, should be easily upgradeable.

They could either wait and upgrade to Mk.3 or follow a Mk.1 upgrade path (which would allow them to standardise EW variant with the Germans).
 
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Hensoldt, Indra and Leonardo all worked together on the Mk.0 and all three versions use Hensoldt Standardized Modular Transmit/Receive (SMTR) modules just in different quantities dual sourced from UK and German lines. In addition three versions use the same Antenna Power Supply & Control system. The Mk.2 has a different Processor and Receiver based on Leonardo tech. In essence all they would have to for hardware to move from Mk.0 to Mk.1 would be to replace the original GAAN SMTR modules with the improved Wideband GAAN SMTR modules used in the Mk.1 and Mk.2 and the digital receiver module from the Mk.1 Block 1 which is going to be replaced in 2028 anyway by a new digital receiver module with more powerful processors in the Mk.1 Block 2 along with a software update (to facilitate EW Attack functionality under a $200m variation contract given last year) and Germany plans to upgrade its Existing Block 1 radars to Block 2 by replacing the receiver.
 
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An Italian Typhoon has crashed 18 miles south west of the rural cattle station of Daly River this morning during exercise Pitch Black in Australia. Pilot ejected and radioed from ground to say they were safe.

Thats very good news that the pilot is safe.

What I find incredible is how the RAF has maintained such an astonishing safety rate with Typhoon. They say its one of, if not the most, reliable aircraft they've ever had. Only 1 aircraft 'lost' to date (wheels up landing at China Lake in 2008, aircraft was fully repairable but RAF elected to use it as a ground instructional airframe). Thats from the biggest user, with far more hours than others including more combat sorties than the rest combined by a big margin....in contrast Spain has had 4 full losses (including DA6), Germany 2 full losses (and another severely damaged, not sure if returned to service), Saudi 1 full loss (Combat loss in Yemen due to technical issue) and Italy has now lost 3 Typhoon...

Is it just luck? Or is the RAF doing something different...(apart from the Mach Loop ban..).
 
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Poland still has the requirement for 32 extra fighter aircraft....F-35, F-15EX and Typhoon in the running...now F-35 might make more sense in terms of the force structure....but if you were Poland would you put all your eggs in the US basket right now? They're not for tanks, artillery, helicopters, SAM systems, ships...or even long range strike...
F15EX might actually make the most sense, if Poland is looking for air patrol over strike. Higher missile capacity than Typhoon.

Also, is Poland using Meteor/ASRAAM currently? There's some advantages for the F15EX if they aren't.
 
So time to update the list from early June...

Orders still being built...

28 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Kuwait
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Qatar
Total - 52 x Typhoon

Ordered or 'due to be...' - On contract in Bold

38 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany under Project Quadriga
20 x Typhoon to Germany under 'Project Quadriga 2'...name not announced yet?
15 x Typhoon EK to Germany - Now called EK instead of ECR. Airbus has said is unlikely that just 15 will be ordered. However, these are upgrades of existing airframes*
20 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain under Project Halcon, to replace oldest EF-18
25 x Typhoon 4 to Spain under Project Halcon 2, to replace some of the remaining EF-18 (64 in total remaining, plus 13 AV-8B+).
24 x Typhoon to Italy - Now confirmed as Tranche 1 replacements, apparently with ECRS Mk.0 radar

Total
- 127 x Typhoon * Typhoon EK added in for completeness, but not in the Total as the initial 15 will be conversions of existing aircraft.

Potential Orders...in order of probability...

30 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4/5/LTE? to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Reduced to 30 from 50 due to 'Quadriga 2', expected in next budget cycle. But...'next budget cycle' could mean more F-35, fewer than 30 Typhoon.... or nothing...
48-72 x Typhoon to Saudi Arabia - Added in 72 as increased buy has been mentioned. 48 is more likely...still an ongoing saga with UK pressuring Germany...
15 (up to) x Typhoon EK to Germany - Second batch of new build EK
25 (up to) x Typhoon to Spain - Potential up to another 25 under a 'Project Halcon III', bumped up the list as rumours from Spain recently have significantly downplayed F-35....perhaps only a small number of F-35B will be ordered if at all (but what choice does the Armada have?).
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Egypt - Moved to 'Potential' as no recent news. Still not ordered, has gone very quiet.....will Israel/Palestine/Yemen etc force the issue?
12 x Typhoon to Qatar - Qatar have an option on an additional 12 a/c from their current contract
24 - 48 x Typhoon to Turkey - Keeps popping up, 'sources' have said '2 Sqn's' Or 48..
32 x Typhoon to Poland - Poland appears to want more 2 more squadrons of fighters specifically for air superiority and Eurofighter have been pitching it heavily...normally you'd assume F-35 would be in the lead, but the Poles don't seem averse to multiple platforms in any domain and they may want cover in case the US gets Trump again...(increased from 24 to 32 from last time)

Total - 210-258 x Typhoon

Potential Orders...so low probability don't deserve to be on above list...or in totals

12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese, KF-21 now clear frontrunner after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, however that is mired in the usual corruption allegations...
? x Typhoon to United Kingdom - Putting this on the list as I guess it needs to be there given industry lobbying...but I don't think will happen...But will BAE have enough going on to bridge the production gap until GCAP? Would getting T2's ECRS mk.2 help? What happens if Saudi's order never arrives? Does UK Gov step in with an order (like I suspect Italy are doing..). Or is component manufacture for others Typhoons, Typhoon upgrades and F-35 sufficient...?

Total - 12- 24 - ? x Typhoon (very unlikely)

Rumours...old and new - now Zero Probability

24 x Typhoon Tranche 1 to Chile - With the news of RAF reducing all their T1's to parts this can be ditched...
Typhoon to Serbia - was a very, very distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. Unlikely given current developments and Serbian Government under Vucic. With Rafale sold now not credible
? x Typhoon to Indonesia - a exceptionally distant possibility, probably no more than 12-16. These were the Austrian Typhoon Tranche 1. However, indications are that Austria intends to retain until 2030 and replace with F-35A (if the US will allow them...).

A Question...still outstanding...Tranche 1 secondhand sales...

The RAF is ''Reduce to Produce'ing' all of its Tranche 1 Typhoon. What happens to the Spanish, German and now Italian Tranche 1's when replaced by Quadriga, Halcon and new Italian order? And also the Austrian Tranche 1's when withdrawn? There could be >120 low mileage (less than half lifetime airframe hours) Typhoon Tranche 1 on the market over the next 6/7 years, all with some upgrade potential....I've advocated sending them to Ukraine for free, be interesting to see what the users do....will they scrap for parts like RAF? Or sell on? (and if so who is in the market) Or gift to Ukraine?

Realistically...

I think there will definitely be at least c200 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and delivered). But it could reach higher than that with a following wind. Any more than that would be a massive bonus....and a big surprise (it certainly won't hit 385 like Ordered and Potential Orders tally to above, but if it got to 240 that would be an incredible result).
 
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F15EX might actually make the most sense, if Poland is looking for air patrol over strike. Higher missile capacity than Typhoon.

Typhoon would bring the whole European user base and compatability into play. But most of all...it wouldn't be a US aircraft, so relatively immune to any US potential retreat from NATO etc.

Also, is Poland using Meteor/ASRAAM currently? There's some advantages for the F15EX if they aren't.
Not at present. But Poland are looking increasingly at licence manufacture and part development, with CAMM/CAMM-ER/CAMM-MR and Brimstone all on the way, so they have a very good relationship with MBDA....plus the whole US political risk thing comes into play...
 
But most of all...it wouldn't be a US aircraft, so relatively immune to any US potential retreat from NATO etc.

Far fetched and not logical. If there is a MAGA administration that want to go down the road on this, it won´t be at least at the detriment of their own industry. Hence some kind of incentives or alternative to NATO would balance such situation, what would make this case no more realistic than a golden fish Jaw inspired wet dream.
 
Photo to go with this story:

1722139061869
 
Turkish Chief General Staff General Metin GÜRAK, who was in the United Kingdom as part of an official visit , inspected the Coningsby Air Base and examined the Eurofighter Typhoon FGR4 fighter jets that Turkey is negotiating to purchase.
1723365011472.png


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British EF-2000 FGR at Anatolian Eagle exercise in Konya
1723377651787.png
 
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