The BDLI aerospace industry association in Germany has warned there will be thousands of job losses and loss of aircraft production capability in Germany due to the gap between the end of German Eurofighter production in 2030 and the start of FCAS production unless there's a Tranche 5 which requires 40 domestic sales and 60 foreign exports for the German production line to remain viable.

So far the only mooted Tranche 5 buy is the 15 Electronic warfare versions that the German government has selected but not formally authorised yet and 25 Halcon II which would be assembled in Spain.
 
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German Industry putting the pressure on for the next batch of Typhoon....

This would be in addition to the 38 ordered under Project Quadriga and does not include the proposed 15 EK variants...looks like they're pushing for an additional 35-47 Typhoon 'Tranche 5' (47 would make the total new orders from Germany total 100 a/c). There are 89 Tornado left in service, 35 of which will be replaced by F-35A. Leaving 54 a/c to replace....21 of which are ECR variants.

Personally I think the EK variant will be ordered in greater numbers than 15....Airbus seemed to think so as well.

Which could mean previous predictions of c160 new orders over a couple of years come true...all we need now is Egypt to sign on the dotted line, if Saudi ever gets cleared to buy 48 it could come close to 200....quite a turnaround....

View: https://twitter.com/GarethJennings3/status/1712796952939647397
 
What a shame, holding your own nation with a gun on its temple.
Too big to fail doesn´t fly. Neither in French delicately crafted lingerie than in German sausage.
 
What a shame, holding your own nation with a gun on its temple.
Too big to fail doesn´t fly. Neither in French delicately crafted lingerie than in German sausage.
It's a little more open and honest, and probably less corrupt, than US politicians pork barreling the DoD...
 
This is why BAE have been so keen to get Tempest in service for 2035...
I'm surprised Dassault and Airbus didn't figure out sooner that Rafale and Typhoon are unlikely to remain in production for another 20 years....
 
Dassault has orders through the period so they arent bothered, Spain its Halcon II and possibly III program its really just Germany with the gap.
 
Dassault has order for that period because their production line is frozen to peace dividend time.
There is a high risks that they loose their order book.
 
They have about 170 export orders on the books at the moment, most signed during the last two years as well as domestic line still having 106 left to deliver in the 2000-2040 fighter program. The production line has a minimum operating requirement of 11 per year and is currently doing 13 so they are sorted really.
 
Looks like Airbus is piling on the pressure on the German Government...

https://www.defense-aerospace.com/german-aerospace-industry-faces-end-of-the-typhoon-program/

Article Extract

"Airbus has found last-ditch solution on its hands: it has dug up an old written question addressed by die Linke, the Leftist party, to the Federal Government (BT-16/2568) of the 12 September 2006:

“What legal agreements exist between the Federal Republic of Germany and Great Britain and between the Federal Republic of Germany and Saudi Arabia that guarantee to the British and Saudi governments that Eurofighters with German components and subsystems that are finally assembled in Great Britain may be delivered to Saudi Arabia (please state the relevant passages of the agreement)?

On page 3, the German Government confirmed that it would be obliged to provide the UK with alternative sources of supply and, if necessary, to finance them:

“The government agreement concluded between the Eurofighter partner countries -- Germany, Great Britain, Italy, and Spain -- in October 1986 stipulates that no partner is allowed to hinder the sale of jointly developed products by another partner country. If a country does not approve the delivery of its share, it is obliged to enable the other country to set up an alternative source of supply and, if necessary, to finance it. There are no agreements regarding the Eurofighter between the Federal Republic of Germany and Saudi Arabia.”

So far, the BDLI has not yet been asked about relocating German production to UK. However, this request has been made to at least one German company…"

I hope BAE or the UK actually pull this stunt on them.....would be worth it for the LOL's alone...
 
Good on Airbus, let's see if enough pressure on Germany works so that they can sell more Typhoons before the 6th Generation arrives.
 
Good that there are provisions to prevent German hypocrisy and double standards when it comes to arms sales, at least fpr the Typhoon. I also do hope that UK pushes it so that the German officials can actually wake the hell up.
 
Saudis reportedly asked for a quote for 54 Rafales, that's piling the pressure on Eurofighter not to miss out on the deal.
 
While I'm curious as to which aircraft would be a better replacement for the Tornado ECR, since the Germans seem to be pushing for Eurofighter ECRs it seems beyond idiotic to not have a 1:1 replacement figured out. 54 Tornado ECRs should mean an order for 54 Eurofighter ECRs.
 
While I'm curious as to which aircraft would be a better replacement for the Tornado ECR, since the Germans seem to be pushing for Eurofighter ECRs it seems beyond idiotic to not have a 1:1 replacement figured out. 54 Tornado ECRs should mean an order for 54 Eurofighter ECRs.

There have never been 54 Tornado ECR in Luftwaffe service. In total 35 were delivered. There are now c21 in service.

Typhoon ECR no longer exists, it was a 2 seat proposal, with changed wing to allow other pylons to carry tanks.. Since then Typhoon EK is the current proposal. This will be single seat. Airbus have said they expect an initial order of 15, but do not expect that to be all...

What Airbus are fighting for at present is the remaining 35 a/c to be replaced (after the 35 x F-35A and initial 15 x Typhoon EK). How that 35 is divvied up is anyones guess, or if Germany actually bothers.... But given Typhoon EK will be dual role it would make sense, if Airbus win out, for some of that 35 to be additional EK , with the remainder as Tranche 5 LTE.
 
Typhoon ECR no longer exists, it was a 2 seat proposal, with changed wing to allow other pylons to carry tanks..
Were ECR and EK Not proposed together? Because If i remember right WE only get EK (for) now because they want to use existing Eurofighter for it. Atleast for the First that come.
Since then Typhoon EK is the current proposal. This will be single seat. Airbus have said they expect an initial order of 15, but do not expect that to be all...
I Heard around 25 are planed.
What Airbus are fighting for at present is the remaining 35 a/c to be replaced (after the 35 x F-35A and initial 15 x Typhoon EK). How that 35 is divvied up is anyones guess, or if Germany actually bothers.... But given Typhoon EK will be dual role it would make sense, if Airbus win out, for some of that 35 to be additional EK , with the remainder as Tranche 5 LTE.
Who knows what will come. Maybe they have a quick Chance of mind and go full in on Tranche 5.
 
Were ECR and EK Not proposed together? Because If i remember right WE only get EK (for) now because they want to use existing Eurofighter for it. Atleast for the First that come.
ECR was the early proposal. But development costs would be huge. EK replaced the ECR concept. Pity really as the 2 seat ECR would have far more utility going forward.

I Heard around 25 are planed.

It would make sense
 
Handelsblatt article...looks like the pressure is being turned up....

https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinun...noevriert-berlin-in-ein-dilemma/29451412.html

The Eurofighter maneuvers Berlin into a dilemma​

Nowhere is the problem of German security policy more evident than in the question of whether combat aircraft should be delivered to Saudi Arabia. There are no easy answers.

Markus Fasse
October 20, 2023 - 12:53 p.m

The Eurofighter project is running out of orders.

The unfortunate thing about this federal government is that it constantly feels forced to make decisions that go against its convictions. It keeps coal-fired power plants running longer and buys liquid gas in Qatar. It is running into debt to equip the Bundeswehr .
And it will soon have to decide whether countries like Saudi Arabia should get new fighter jets. This was a sensitive issue even before the impending conflagration in the Middle East. Now the whole dilemma that German security policy is in is becoming apparent - and the Eurofighter is the biggest symbol of this.

The Eurofighter was conceived during the Cold War. Europe , according to the idea, should be able to defend itself independently of American technology. Because hardly any country can afford this alone given the enormous costs, four European countries joined forces.

The Eurofighter has been built jointly by German, British, Italian and Spanish industries since the turn of the millennium. The fact that France is going its own way with the competing product “Rafale” is one of those strange European aberrations.

The Eurofighter is like any other European armament: it has an economic problem; the number of units is too low in relation to the high development costs. While the American competitor F35 has 3,500 orders, the Eurofighter only has 680.

The USA spends four times as much money on armaments as the most important European countries combined​

This reflects the ratio of military spending. At $877 billion, the USA spent four times as much money last year as Germany , France and Great Britain combined. The Americans are also exporting their equipment more freely to allies.
So far, the Europeans have been able to compensate for this disadvantage by continually reordering the Eurofighter. But that's over, the project is running out of orders. Only Germany and Spain are still buying new aircraft for their own needs; a total of 58 are still to be built.

Perhaps there will be 40 new aircraft that Germany will order in the coming years, Airbus Defense boss Michael Schöllhorn hopes. But without new orders there is a risk of disruption in production, in the supply chain and in development.

The specialists for engine construction, flight control, avionics and networking are then missing for future projects such as the FCAS fighter jet agreed with France, which is targeted for 2040. Orders have to come by then - if you don't want to only buy American products again in the future.

One way out is export - with the Eurofighter, each partner country finds its own customers. Germany has sold 15 machines to Austria. Great Britain and Italy, however, serve Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and, above all, Saudi Arabia. To date, all German governments have supported these decisions.

The Saudis have already received 72 machines in recent years and have had an option for at least 48 more for several years. They now want to pull this – with the support of the British and against the will of the federal government. The traffic light coalition has excluded arms deliveries to the kingdom in the coalition agreement.
This is understandable for ethical reasons: Saudi Arabia is at the center of a region that could not be more unstable. Riyadh has actively participated in the war in Yemen, and the government is suspected of brutally executing critic Jamal Kashoggi. On the other hand, there is Saudi Arabia, which was on a reconciliation course with Israel before the recent Hamas massacre.

Germany has to decide: maintain principles or keep partners​

There is a lot at stake for Germany: If the traffic light coalition sticks to its rejection of the delivery of more Eurofighters to Saudi Arabia , the German arms industry is threatened with isolation in Europe. This applies in particular to the projects planned with France for the new tank (MGCS) and the new fighter aircraft (FCAS).

The European partners want to know whether we are serious about investing significantly more money in our defense and remaining technologically somewhat sovereign over the USA. Or whether we would rather continue to rely on others and not export weapons outside Europe at the price of our own defense capability. Because in the end that is the choice.
Germany must decide: maintain its own principles and not send weapons to areas of tension. There are good reasons to reject the export of more Eurofighters to Saudi Arabia. But that is not the only question here. Germany's credibility as a partner in Europe is at stake. Cooperation with France and Great Britain on arms issues is vitally important. Nobody knows how long the USA will guarantee Europe's security.

In the case of Saudi Arabia, this means: If the kingdom takes on a moderating and constructive role in the current Middle East crisis, then the federal government should reconsider its position and not block the Eurofighter delivery.
 
There have never been 54 Tornado ECR in Luftwaffe service. In total 35 were delivered. There are now c21 in service.

Typhoon ECR no longer exists, it was a 2 seat proposal, with changed wing to allow other pylons to carry tanks.. Since then Typhoon EK is the current proposal. This will be single seat. Airbus have said they expect an initial order of 15, but do not expect that to be all...

What Airbus are fighting for at present is the remaining 35 a/c to be replaced (after the 35 x F-35A and initial 15 x Typhoon EK). How that 35 is divvied up is anyones guess, or if Germany actually bothers.... But given Typhoon EK will be dual role it would make sense, if Airbus win out, for some of that 35 to be additional EK , with the remainder as Tranche 5 LTE.
Okay, my bad on the wrong name for the Typhoon variant.

The other thing is that the F-35's LO features make it easier to get into a defended airspace for a DEAD mission, so I can see some arguments over which is the better Wild Weasel option. If Typhoon EK development has already been done, then yes order Typhoon EKs in enough numbers to 1:1 the Tornado ECRs. Ideally order enough to actually meet whatever the requirements happen to be, not whatever was ordered in the Peace Dividend.
 
I call germany will let it go trought. But i guess they will "buy" them something out of it. The whole thing is quite interresting as both sides have to lose to get what they want.
 
Not a source I'd usually choose, but if this is correct and there is the posited 'atomic' option in the contract we may as well exercise it and then pledge never to work with Germany on any defence related project ever again...
Isn't that why the GCAP program has a "no country can veto sales" clause in it?
 
Isn't that why the GCAP program has a "no country can veto sales" clause in it?

Typhoon supposedly did as well....

Germany has previously had to compensate the UK as they did the usual German workshare based on initial orders scam....then cut their orders. Net result is each Typhoon is 45% UK...

After A400 and Typhoon (and others like Tiger) I suspect that anyone fool enough to do a joint programme with Germany will load any contract with that many compensation clauses that even German politician's will balk when they try and block sales/slow the programme/cut orders...or any of the usual stunts...
 
If i understand it right this clause in the Eurofighter contract is no clause but declaration of intent to not do that but its not part of the final contract.
Now the yemen war had ( atleast to my knowledge) peace since april 2022 and even Scholz said that there should be no problem for export anymore. I guess there 2 possible ends to it. 1. Germany is going to let it get trought but not without any "compensation" of some form or 2. it wont go trought. Like other said such a clause will be the new standard for developments with germany atleast if global export is a goal. But i don't think this will stop anyone from joint development and the coming goverments are what really can be the problem for it. We have to wait and see.
 
Typhoon supposedly did as well....

Germany has previously had to compensate the UK as they did the usual German workshare based on initial orders scam....then cut their orders. Net result is each Typhoon is 45% UK...

After A400 and Typhoon (and others like Tiger) I suspect that anyone fool enough to do a joint programme with Germany will load any contract with that many compensation clauses that even German politician's will balk when they try and block sales/slow the programme/cut orders...or any of the usual stunts...
"After determining workshare split, any country reducing their purchase of aircraft must pay twice the cost of each aircraft not purchased to each of the other partners."
 

See also the aerodynamics improvement at the end of the report. Are those the magic wedge at the root of the delta LE?
 
Germany has previously had to compensate the UK as they did the usual German workshare based on initial orders scam....then cut their orders. Net result is each Typhoon is 45% UK...
All of them reduced there orders and only germany and Spain are atleast achieving it over the whole typhoon live.
After A400 and Typhoon (and others like Tiger) I suspect that anyone fool enough to do a joint programme with Germany will load any contract with that many compensation clauses that even German politician's will balk when they try and block sales/slow the programme/cut orders...or any of the usual stunts...
Who knows who is the ruling Party then...
 
UK didn't. They resold 72 from their allocation to Saudi Arabia.
I’m not sure the workshare rules allow for that? « Resale of my allocation » sounds like an attempt to spin a cut in orders.
 
I’m not sure the workshare rules allow for that? « Resale of my allocation » sounds like an attempt to spin a cut in orders.

It worked a treat...but Germany's sales efforts were dismal, they managed to offload some of their Tranche 1 to Austria but failed abysmally elsewhere. Similar story with A400. Germany has been trying to offload some of their A400 allocation for ever and a day...with zero success.
 
Not sure I can see this happening, but Gareth is a solid source so if someone has mentioned it to him its worth reporting...one for the rumoured list until something more solid comes out. It would make sense as it would keep the Italian facility running, particularly if it was the EK variant which would help replace Italy's Tornado ECR fleet.

View: https://twitter.com/GarethJennings3/status/1722226471866130453?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
 
Not sure I can see this happening, but Gareth is a solid source so if someone has mentioned it to him its worth reporting...one for the rumoured list until something more solid comes out. It would make sense as it would keep the Italian facility running, particularly if it was the EK variant which would help replace Italy's Tornado ECR fleet.

View: https://twitter.com/GarethJennings3/status/1722226471866130453?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Also maybe kicks Germany in the ass for there own EKs which are repoted to be on hold because F-35 instead is prioritized
 
From what I've heard the Spanish indeed aren't seriously considering the F-35 and have withdrawn their expression of interest and its now Eurofighter (highly likely) or Rafale/Gripen (backup option).
 
So will that affect the number of GCAP that Italy orders? This is very strange development.:confused:
 
Spain has its own Eurofighter final assembly line so while it benefits the other countries supply chains who will supply parts it doesn't directly benefit of the Italian, German or British final assembly lines. Italy has a final assembly line for F-35 (along with Japan and two in the US) so it doesnt face the same issue Britain/Germany do about any gap in final assembly eroding skills.

Italy is considering another order to replace its Tranche 1 in the strike role and the Tornado ECR in the SEAD role so shouldn't too much affect any GCAP orders which is looking to be primarily air superiority to complement the F-35A in the strike and F-35B in the carrier role for Italy. Interestingly you had a US airforce general this week saying the F-35 wouldnt be a competitive fighter on its own in the 2040's, to still be relevant it would have to be paired with other manned fighter platforms (essentially a niche rather than multi-role aircraft).
 
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