Dassault Rafale NEWS ONLY

[Arjen]

Dassault Group and Airbus Group are separate entities. Shareholders may have shares in both groups, Airbus has a ~10% share in Dassault.
-edit- corrected from earlier version.

 

[marauder2048]

Dassault Group and Airbus Group are separate entities. Shareholders may have shares in both groups, but neither is owned, not even partly, by the other.

A complete irrelevancy.

After the Dassault family, Airbus is the largest single holder of Dassault shares.

I'm not criticizing this arrangement. In fact, Dassault is probably one of the last surnamed aviation firms still majority
owned by the family which I regard as a good thing.

 

[Arjen]

The Dassault family owns ~62% of Dassault Aviation. The French government's indirect share in Dassault is somewhat less than 5% - Airbus is EADS-owned, which, in turn, is mostly French-German owned. Airbus/EADS and Dassault are in direct competition: Eurofighter Typhoon vs Rafale. As Archibald already wrote, the French government's support of Dassault is mainly about maintaining France's technological base, much less about the government's minor financial concerns about Dassault.

 

[marauder2048]

The Dassault family owns ~62% of Dassault Aviation. The French government's indirect share in Dassault is somewhat less than 5% - Airbus is EADS-owned, which, in turn, is mostly French-German owned. Airbus/EADS and Dassault are in direct competition: Eurofighter Typhoon vs Rafale. As Archibald already wrote, the French government's support of Dassault is mainly about maintaining France's technological base, much less about the government's minor financial concerns about Dassault.

Between Airbus and Dassault family share holdings, it's a French asset.

And of course, Dassault owns 25% of Thales. Which is 25% owned by the French state.

So yes. The French government has to be concerned for the financial viability of Dassault.

Of course, Archibald argued that the French government was filling capacity gaps, not technological ones so
which of the specious arguments are you advancing?

The reason defense firms have civilian aviation lines and vice-versa is to offset cyclical downturns;
you can subsidize one side with the other and then flip. With COVID and Dassault's bizjet missteps there's
no flipping.

Airbus/EADS and Dassault are in direct competition: Eurofighter Typhoon vs Rafale.

And direct collaborators on FCAS; I love half-truths.

 

[Arjen]

I repeat - this is mainly about maintaining France's technology base.

 

[marauder2048]

I repeat - this is mainly about maintaining France's technology base.

And it's as feebly argued as before.

How does producing more of an older type that's already slated for replacement by a
new design that's already being funded by two governments maintain the technology base?

It doesn't. It does keep Dassault in decent overall shape though.

 

[Arjen]

Because you keep that part of the company intact, including its tribal knowledge.

 

[marauder2048]

Leaving aside the fact that it's not likely that experience with a 40-year old design is tribally useful
for the 2026+ FCAS design...

Per Trappier's remarks last year, there's no evidence that this part of the company was in any danger.

 

[Arjen]

...because the French government has been feeding it steadily through the years. As it is doing now.

 

[marauder2048]

...because the French government has been feeding it steadily through the years. As it is doing now.

Which wasn't Archibald's original claim: it was about a sudden capacity gap.
And wasn't yours either: it was technology base. Which amounts to "facts not in evidence."

 

[galgot]

Arjen was responding to this statement of your :

... They are important to the French state which owns part of Dassault through Airbus.
...

Dassault is important to French state -POINT- Not through Airbus or else… nothing irrelevant.

They are buying 12 more Rafale, because Adl’A is already short of it and now selling 12 from her fleet will makes it worst, as Archibald pointed, and yes maybe also to help Dassault, thks for pointing this to us. The two reasons which are not incompatible though.
Fr State buying Rafale keeps Dassault running, a company which is of strategic technological (<- as Arjen pointed) importance for the Fr State.
And, it fills the gap in the Adl'A of the missing 12 Rafale sold to Grece.

...

And direct collaborators on FCAS; I love half-truths.

There is hardly any join work going on yet… But there is big competition behind scene to try to get a bigger part of the pie.

 

[marauder2048]

Dassault is important to French state -POINT- Not through Airbus or else… nothing irrelevant.

It's how the French government ensures control. Same with Dassault's holdings of Thales.

They are buying 12 more Rafale, because Adl’A is already short of it and now selling 12 from her fleet will make it worst,

Which contradict's Arjen's claim about "feeding it steadily through the years." Thanks for highlighting that.

There is hardly any join work going on yet… But there is big competition behind scene to try to get a bigger part of the pie.

Which doesn't change the fact that it's a collaboration between two companies one of which is a major shareholder in the other.

 

[Arjen]

Maintaining a technological base and maintaining a useful Rafale fleet are not mutually exclusive. Both are more important than the financial consequences of the French government's minor share in Dassault.

 

[alejandro_]

The Mérignac plant were the Rafales are build is the same one where 1400 Mirage III were build. While a far more complex aircraft, Rafale production could certainly surge to far higher levels.
The Armée de l'Air, per lack of budget, has for the last twenty years stretched his orders (and Dassault followed with their own Rafale production rates) to a miserable 10 per year or even lower.

Minimum production at Mérignac is 11 per year. This was the production rate for many years, while the French government looked for clients. In 2019 it reached 26 as contracts with India and Qatar required extra deliveries.

I wish the AdA could get their hands on the UAE Mirage 2000-9 but no chance in hell, what little money they are allocated, has to go to Rafale.

Some countries (Iraq and India) have shown interest in the past, but they were very expensive, even second hand.

And if the plane and the deal had not interested Greece, he would not have placed the order...

Comparing contracts is always hard because the contracts are not publicly available, but it does not seem that Greece got those second hand Rafale for free, as some sources stated. Also, you can end up paying premium because deliveries can be faster.

The fighter fleet has been used much more than expected, thus further acquisitions of Rafale are likely.

 

[galgot]

Dassault is important to French state -POINT- Not through Airbus or else… nothing irrelevant.

It's how the French government ensures control. Same with Dassault's holdings of Thales.

Yeah…

They are buying 12 more Rafale, because Adl’A is already short of it and now selling 12 from her fleet will make it worst,

Which contradict's Arjen's claim about "feeding it steadily through the years." Thanks for highlighting that.

Hein ?…

There is hardly any join work going on yet… But there is big competition behind scene to try to get a bigger part of the pie.

Which doesn't change the fact that it's a collaboration between two companies one of which is a major shareholder in the other.

Which doesn’t change the fact that there is hardly anything started yet…
So hardly any collaboration. And nothing sure about FCAS future.
Do you like ping-pong ?

 

[marauder2048]

Maintaining a technological base and maintaining a useful Rafale fleet are not mutually exclusive.

And there's not necessarily and established dependency between them either.
Keeping Dassault a financially viable concern is of interest to the French state on a number of levels
esp. the interlocking nature of French state ownership in its defense and aviation sector.

Because giving away public property (12 slightly used Rafales) and using public funds to replace those assets is something that's totally
standard and normal in defense transactions...

It's practically unheard of for Air Forces to have to part with modern frontline fighters from their active inventory
due to the fact that they were given away.

 

[galgot]

Maintaining a technological base and maintaining a useful Rafale fleet are not mutually exclusive. Both are more important than the financial consequences of the French government's minor share in Dassault.

Because giving away public property (12 slightly used Rafales) and using public funds to replace those assets is something that's totally
standard and normal in defense transactions...

-> https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/dassault-rafale.17813/page-5#post-417298
"Greece is going to pay 1,700 million € for 18 Rafale; this gives a unit cost of 94,44 million."
I think you missed something.

 

[TomcatViP]

French Rafale disponibility reported to have reached 76% this year, slightly above the threshold mandated by MoD (73%) and miles away from the low 50- just a couple of years ago.

A400M numbers were not available so far.

 

[uk 75]

France pays a high price for going it alone but so too does Europe including the UK.
A fully European Tornado or Typhoon involving Dassault could have built a company able to challenge Boeing or Lockheed.. As it is, France may one day order F35s just as it has C130s.

 

[NUSNA_Moebius]

France pays a high price for going it alone but so too does Europe including the UK.
A fully European Tornado or Typhoon involving Dassault could have built a company able to challenge Boeing or Lockheed.. As it is, France may one day order F35s just as it has C130s.

Maybe they need to learn to innovate and disrupt an industry screaming for a change in the way things have been done. The T-7, assuming it's not acting as a loss leader product could be a real sign of change. It's too bad it's not Dassault making that innovation.

 

[galgot]

France pays a high price for going it alone but so too does Europe including the UK.
A fully European Tornado or Typhoon involving Dassault could have built a company able to challenge Boeing or Lockheed.. As it is, France may one day order F35s just as it has C130s.

Sorry uk 75, it sounds a bit like a wishful thinking...
As for paying an high price, I don't how much more than others, but at least paying for something done at home thus keeping a domestic builder running.

 

[uk 75]

Galgot I agree that France is willing to pay the price to preserve its own industrial base and the related jobs.
My mention of the C130 buy (also the E3 and E2s) was merely to point out that some requirements have had to be met by US products, so even France has its limits. An F35 buy is not very likely but given the relative size of the builds between F35 and a Dassault equivalent it might yet happen.

 

[galgot]

Galgot I agree that France is willing to pay the price to preserve its own industrial base and the related jobs.
My mention of the C130 buy (also the E3 and E2s) was merely to point out that some requirements have had to be met by US products, so even France has its limits. An F35 buy is not very likely but given the relative size of the builds between F35 and a Dassault equivalent it might yet happen.

Of course it has its limits. No one (except China to a certain mesure) can compete with the ginormous US defense budget that makes the wealth of LM/Boeing and give them the $$ to « innovate ».
If you compare the size of Dassault to LM, or the prod figures, indeed Dassault can be seen as a SMB, producing their planes at artisanal pace, but with quality , and selling some few .
Yet I can’t see of any political party prone to come to power in Fr any time soon that would let got Dassault and buy F-35s, it would be for them as much a « sacrilege » as to let go the nuke deterrent.
It would take a very Pro-US regime to take power in France for this to happen, something like a Gov ready for a "special relationship" if you see what I mean, which is very unlikely.

Why ? Because on a French scale, but like in the US, the Fr defense and nuke complex is so tied to powers in place, and is an extremely powerful lobby . Still making lot of money, of course on a French scale not comparable to the US, but still working.
They would rather keep upgrading and buying Rafales for the Adl’A up to 2060 than buy F-35s and let go Dassault.
Just like Adl’A was flying good old MIIIEs , when Gr or UK were equiped with top notch Phantoms of the days.
So by the time the Rafales are retired , I doubt it will be the F-35 that Fr will pick to replace it. Something else will have appeared by that time.
Could be a US thing indeed, if a European cooperation fails to deliver an alternative, and there again a Fr Gov and Dassault combine would fight tooth and nail to have conditions that makes Dassault survive .
Or could be a European solution.
But hey… Who am I to say what will be ? We live in a crazy world, so Fr buying F-35s, why not ? But very unlikely.

 

[uk 75]

Good points. I am reminded of Jean Reno's livening up of the rather dire 90s Godzilla film and his reaction to American coffee.
If looks counted, Rafale beats F35 every time.

 

[Flyaway]

Good points. I am reminded of Jean Reno's livening up of the rather dire 90s Godzilla film and his reaction to American coffee.
If looks counted, Rafale beats F35 every time.

As I am sure you already know looks don’t count for anything, and form follows function & the F-35 is a fifth generation stealth aircraft with all that entails, the Rafale isn’t either of these things.

 

[uk 75]

Good points. I am reminded of Jean Reno's livening up of the rather dire 90s Godzilla film and his reaction to American coffee.
If looks counted, Rafale beats F35 every time.

As I am sure you already know looks don’t count for anything, and form follows function & the F-35 is a fifth generation stealth aircraft with all that entails, the Rafale isn’t either of these things.

Heart versus Head

 

[Foo Fighter]

When it comes to combat equipment, head must be more prevalent than heart. My car was never the prime example of efficient dynamics in automotive technology. What it has is style over substance and as a limited use civilian vehicle there are personal reasons for choosing it rather than another vehicle, I have kept her since 1988 after all so she has something going for her. Essentially I can 'feel' the road and every input is tactile perfection. IMHO. Were I going to war would I prefer a Spitfire or a current Typhoon etc? Well I like living so it would never be the Spitfire.

 

[uk 75]

Not my area of knowledge but the F35 comes in for a fair amount of stick on this site whereas Rafale is a well established weapon with its main customer-France.
Also I was the one suggesting above that France might end up buying F35s.

 

[TomcatViP]

Used Rafale price as sold to Greece seems to have been valued at 400M€ for 12 airframe.... That's half what Romania was ready to pay for a similar number of much older and used ex Israelis upgraded F-16I!!!

Among the pandemic, The great aircraft bazaar is still open for business...

Comment Florence Parly veut minimiser l'impact du contrat Rafale en Grèce pour l'armée de l'air

Dassault Aviation devrait livrer 34 Rafale neufs (six à la Grèce et 28 à l'armée de l'air) entre 2022 et 2024. Puis le constructeur remettra aux aviateurs français 12 Rafale en 2025. Outre les six Rafale neufs, la Grèce a également acheté 12 Rafale d'occasion pour 400 millions d'euros.

www.latribune.fr

 

[Deltafan]

Good deal.

The possibility for France to supply 12 new planes to its Air Force and to start filling the delivery hole between 2024 and 2027. And the possibility for a political and military ally to obtain relatively quickly (as it wishes) new competitive fighter jets against its potential adversary (and a today's, at least political, adersary of France).

 

[TomcatViP]

That's all but a good deal. Don't be so delusional.
400M€ divided by 12 airplane makes less than 40M$ per unit for perfectly new airframe that the French taxpayers paid 3 time that plus the cost of upgrades.

400M€ is also roughly the cost of 3 airframe as sold to India. Greeks got 4 time more.

 

[H_K]

@TomcatViP As usual on this topic you are being critical without getting your facts straight.

1) The cost to the French taxpayer is at most €70M for a new build (without sales tax), far from the €100M+ you’re implying.

2) If these are older airframes (say from 2006) then they will have 3,500+ hours on them.

3) Selling them at half price is a perfectly fine way to lock in a customer. The small upfront discount is a classic sales tactic which will be made up several times over with the weapons, training, support and spares packages, which won’t be discounted.

 

[TomcatViP]

Speaking about as usual, you still like depicting other as idiots.
70M€ has no ground. It's a number often put forward to picture a favorable Rafale cost. It's even a cost without taxes, what won't apply here for your calculations (if you ever did any).
The Rafale upgrades are also costly, mostly because the number of airframe impacted is fairly low and because the plane came out as very basic initially.

Regarding the flight hours, the only solid reference we have is Greek statements (Mod) characterizing those airframe as having a fairly low nbr of flight hours.

So once again you draw nbr here and there to paint a picture out of thin air copiously insulting people on the way (the reader)

Romania bought 12 25 years old F-16 for twice that price and that is a proper number.

And regarding that:

Selling them at half price is a perfectly fine way to lock in a customer. The small upfront discount is a classic sales tactic which will be made up several times over with the weapons, training, support and spares packages, which won’t be discounted.

Do you realize your clever marketing tactics would mean that French couldn't sell more than 50 airframe before the AdlAE ceases to exist?

 

[H_K]

70M€ has no ground. It's a number often put forward to picture a favorable Rafale cost. It's even a cost without taxes, what won't apply here for your calculations (if you ever did any).
The Rafale upgrades are also costly, mostly because the number of airframe impacted is fairly low and because the plane came out as very basic initially.

The €70M is based on the 2014 flyaway price adjusted for inflation. It’s as good as anyone’s guess.

Another way to think of this is that from 2006-2018 the French spent €15B to receive 126 Rafale F2/F3s (this from French budget docs). That’s €120M each with VAT, or more relevantly €100M without VAT. This number includes EVERYTHING: development of F3 and F3R, pylons, fuel tanks, spares, upgrades, simulators etc. It’s as close as you’ll get to the true all-in unit price, equipped, for a Rafale.

(The only thing not included is the initial development sunk cost in the 1990s and the early deliveries before 2006)

So now the Greeks are paying €1.7B for 18 aircraft, of which 12 have at least 1,500hrs (if they are the last ones delivered in ~2016), possibly more hours if they are older airframes. So they’re getting the equivalent of ~15 new airframes for €110M each. They will have to spend at least as much on spares, weapons etc in the future, plus who knows what isn’t included (like training etc). That’s hardly a steal.

 

[TomcatViP]

First they are F3R. So please continue further down with the balance sheet. Secondly, the number of hours on the airframe can only be evaluated around what has been said in the press. To say it quickly, I imagine that you haven't factored availability rate in your gross evaluation of the number of hours (50%).

Anyway, an aircraft that hasn't seen yet its first SLEP can't be evaluated less than one 25 years old that had already.

This deal is like winning the double burger promo at your local restaurant and getting the boss's BMW with it.

 

[Deltafan]

That's all but a good deal. Don't be so delusional.
400M€ divided by 12 airplane makes less than 40M$ per unit for perfectly new airframe that the French taxpayers paid 3 time that plus the cost of upgrades.

400M€ is also roughly the cost of 3 airframe as sold to India. Greeks got 4 time more.

You know, exactly like me, that this Greek situation is not only economical in the short term, but military and political too (and economical in the long term).

And as said before, it gives the possibility for France to supply 12 new planes to its Air Force and to start filling the delivery hole between 2024 and 2027.

You can repeat your usual criticism against France/Rafale as long as you want. I will not change my mind about your partial arguments (and I am certainly not the only one here).

As usual, I let the readers judge.

 

[TomcatViP]

Where do I criticize France?! Stop drapping you with outfits that does not belong to you. We are putting doubt on the seriousness of a deal granted by some here as a geniously machiavellian move what it is not, and underpinnings this unheard serie of odd similar give away deals since this administration took office (see the Great aircraft bazaar thread).

Loosing ~1.8B€ of assets to cash 0.4B€ will never be called a sane business practice or a strategic coup.

Think at Dassault Rafale customers that get to see their investments depreciated so abruptly.

 

[H_K]

@TomcatViP As you know F3R is mostly a software upgrade so the retrofit cost is minimal. The main F3R expense is development (~€1B) which is included in the €15B (incl. VAT) I quoted you for 126 aircraft from 2006-18.

So my €100M unit price (equipped) is an accurate reflection of the balance sheet from a French perspective for its F3R fleet. This includes all the development and retrofits over the years from F2.2 to F3R standards: A2G and Meteor weapons integration, AESA, OSF-IT, DDM-NG, Damocles, Reco-NG, Spectra enhancements, M88-2E4 engines, weapons pylons, drop tanks, test benches, spares, simulator upgrades etc. EVERYTHING*

As for flying hours, it’s well known that the average aircraft flies 250-300 hours/year irrespective of availability. In 2018 the fleet leaders had 3,300hrs+, which confirms that. So the newest single seaters delivered in 2015 should have ~1,500 hours on them.

I don’t know why you keep focusing on the €400M... the Greeks are spending 1.7B for ~15 new build equivalents, excluding weapons. That’s the number that matters, ie. the full course price, not the small discount they got on the appetizer portion.

*OK small print: I’m not including the early development cost for Rafale prototypes, F1 and F2 standards, which was significant but mostly 20+ years ago.

 

[TomcatViP]

If you don't see why nbr matters I can't help but feeling sorry for you.

Who's gona paid the difference from 0.4B€ and the 12 new Rafale to be ordered? With what budget increase? In what kind of country that can't already paid for basic military needs in the 21st century? That lacks airframe to sustain its operational tempo?
And where is the legal ground for that? 10% of an airforce is wiped out from inventory and everything is normal? Ppl should simply seat down and acclaim the genius that did that?!

The only cleverness I see here is that of the Greeks proving again their superiority against the oddity of the said-so French elite thinking.

 

[H_K]

Who's gona paid the difference from 0.4B€ and the 12 new Rafale to be ordered?

So let’s see, the French Air Force is losing 10 F3Rs (new build equivalents) in exchange for €400M. It can buy 10 more capable F4s at €70M a pop (flyaway price, excl. VAT), so €700M total. It loses €300M from its balance sheet but wanted the more capable aircraft so that’s OK. This is much like the French Navy which was willing to spend €300M to upgrade its 10 F1s to F3s.

The French government and industry get the full benefit of €2B spent in France, with no offsets or tech. transfers like in many other deals. You can double or triple that money over the lifetime of the aircraft.

Long-term the French Air Force gets the benefit of lower costs from a larger user base for Dassault to spread its fixed costs and development dollars.