Current Nuclear Weapons Development

[zjz]

How China used a 'paper tiger' to emerge as a nuclear weapon superpower

How China used a 'paper tiger' to emerge as a nuclear weapon superpower

On the 60th anniversary of the nation’s first atomic weapon test, experts trace how policy, politics and purpose laid the foundation for China’s nuclear might.

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[bobbymike]

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/10/17/us_wasting_billions_on_dead_and_violated_arms_control_agreements_1065744.html?mc_cid=2f612c08e4&mc_eid=307947a252

 

[Grey Havoc]

Ukraine ‘will seek nuclear weapons’ if it cannot join Nato

Membership vital to ‘victory plan’, Volodymyr Zelensky tells EU summit, as he warns of need for powerful deterrent against Russia

www.telegraph.co.uk

Desperation is in the air, and no mistake.

 

[Flyaway]

First time it has been ‘officially’ confirmed that Israel possesses nuclear weapons.

The leak comes at an extremely sensitive moment in US-Israeli relations and is bound to anger the Israelis, who have been preparing to strike Iran in response to Iran’s missile barrage on October 1. One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons. The document says the US has not seen any indications that Israel plans to use a nuclear weapon against Iran.

“If it is true that Israeli tactical plans to respond to Iran’s attack on October 1 have been leaked, it is a serious breach,” said Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and a retired CIA officer.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/19/politics/us-israel-iran-intelligence-documents/index.html

 

[NMaude]

First time it has been ‘officially’ confirmed that Israel possesses nuclear weapons.

It has been a badly kept secret that EVERYONE has known about for several decades.

 

[publiusr]

Even before Vela…a recent quake in Iran has got folks talking—others are more cautious

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/02/science/iran-nuclear-weapon.html

 

[Scott Kenny]

Ukraine ‘will seek nuclear weapons’ if it cannot join Nato

Membership vital to ‘victory plan’, Volodymyr Zelensky tells EU summit, as he warns of need for powerful deterrent against Russia

www.telegraph.co.uk

Desperation is in the air, and no mistake.

And this is any surprise because...?

FFS, Ukraine gave up a significant nuclear arsenal in exchange for guarantees from the US and Russia. Russia INVADES and the US only says "here's some weapons to fight with". The lesson is clear, have nukes and you can do what you want. Don't have nukes and countries will shit all over you.

I expect that EVERY nation neighboring a nuclear power is now looking for a way to get nuclear weapons.

 

[mirco1961]

Fantastic. So Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon will have nuclear weapons: Israel have it. A really big idea.

 

[paralay]

The lesson is clear, have nukes and you can do what you want. Don't have nukes and countries will shit all over you.

North Korea has learned this lesson and now it is scary to destroy it

 

[Forest Green]

The lesson is clear, have nukes and you can do what you want. Don't have nukes and countries will shit all over you.

Simply having them gives some latitude but unless you have a lot you don't have carte blanche. In the case of NK, sure it's unlikely anybody is going to invade, not that they were anyway and it was in fact them who attacked last time. However, they don't have enough to allow them to attack ROK and get away with it, because the US has enough interceptors to make the chances of getting a warhead through unlikely and the penalty for trying would be complete obliteration.

 

[NMaude]

However, they don't have enough to allow them to attack ROK and get away with it, because the US has enough interceptors to make the chances of getting a warhead through unlikely and the penalty for trying would be complete obliteration.

President Clinton was publicly on the record in his second term stating that if the Norks used nukes that be the end of North Korea.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Fantastic. So Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon will have nuclear weapons: Israel have it. A really big idea.

You forgot Jordan. And yes, it's pretty much a nightmare scenario for nuclear proliferation.

 

[Forest Green]

Major breach of international law:

North Korea Requests Russian Nuclear Technologies in Exchange for Missiles and Troops in Ukraine War

North Korea Requests Russian Nuclear Technologies in Exchange for Missiles and Troops in Ukraine War

armyrecognition.com

As the war in Ukraine intensifies, North Korea has increased its involvement by requesting nuclear technologies from Russia in exchange for missiles and military personnel. According to Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, North Korea's request includes low-yield tactical nuclear weapons and submarine-launched missile systems. South Korean intelligence services have also warned that Russian assistance in modernizing North Korea's military could destabilize the region.

 

[NMaude]

Major breach of international law:

North Korea Requests Russian Nuclear Technologies in Exchange for Missiles and Troops in Ukraine War

North Korea Requests Russian Nuclear Technologies in Exchange for Missiles and Troops in Ukraine War

armyrecognition.com

This revelation means it's more likely that the South Koreans will be increasing the amount aid they're giving/selling to Ukraine and South Korean troops to Ukraine. I won't be surprised at all if South Korea is covertly asking the US government for transfers of US nuclear weapons technology in response to the Norks nuke antics.

 

[bobbymike]

20-30 years from now will we call it the third nuclear age? New countries with nukes 2040-2050.

1) Iran - sooner probably but would be considered part of this proliferation timeline
2) S. Korea
3) Japan
4) Saudi Arabia
5) China as peer or superior numbers
6) Australia

 

[Scott Kenny]

20-30 years from now will we call it the third nuclear age? New countries with nukes 2040-2050.

1) Iran - sooner probably but would be considered part of this proliferation timeline
2) S. Korea
3) Japan
4) Saudi Arabia
5) China as peer or superior numbers
6) Australia

Might add Poland to that list, but that may just be my impression from watching too much Habitual Line Crosser...

 

[Hanz2k]

Might add Poland to that list, but that may just be my impression from watching too much Habitual Line Crosser...

I rather expect new version of Nuclear Sharing Program but based on French and maybe UK warheads.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/frances-nuclear-offer-europe

 

[bobbymike]

https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/adding-slack-to-the-us-nuclear-posture/

 

[Grey Havoc]

Don't forget Algeria, which at the turn of the Century had a nuclear breakout capability estimated as being at around two years (a legacy of a covert, Chinese backed, late Cold War nuclear weapons program which had to be mothballed in the early 1990s after it was exposed, with Algeria basically forced into joining the NPT in 1995).

 

[Josh_TN]

I rather expect new version of Nuclear Sharing Program but based on French and maybe UK warheads.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/frances-nuclear-offer-europe

I find it hard to believe either of those things.

 

[Forest Green]

NATO Flexes With Simultaneous Nuclear Strike And Naval Warfare Exercises

NATO's yearly Steadfast Noon nuclear readiness drills coincided with Strike Warrior that featured a Royal Navy carrier group at its center.

www.twz.com

 

[Scott Kenny]

Don't forget Algeria, which at the turn of the Century had a nuclear breakout capability estimated as being at around two years (a legacy of a covert, Chinese backed, late Cold War nuclear weapons program which had to be mothballed in the early 1990s after it was exposed, with Algeria basically forced into joining the NPT in 1995).

I'd missed that one, holy crap!

 

[Hanz2k]

I find it hard to believe either of those things.

Fictionary scenario - “Orange guy” pull US forces and nuclear weapons from Europe - maybe declare not to honor NATO. Then it will be natural for Europe to consolidate defense around France and UK potential. And France or UK will be happy rest of the Europe to pay them to retain nuclear weapons production capabilities.

And as Polish citizen I see Poland going nuclear in traditional manner highly unlikely. It will require at least 30 years of investment. We have some uranium ore in Stołowe/Sowie mountains but I don’t know if it’s practical to mine. Lack of any capability to enrich uranium, nor reactor to produce plutonium. Lack of indigenous ballistic missile technology. Sorry, this is not going to fly. Only option for shortcut is, if Ukrainians forget about couple of hundred of nuclear warheads and are willing to sell them.

 

[Dilandu]

Lack of indigenous ballistic missile technology.

Erm.




You have sounding rockets developed and produced since 1960s. The last launch was in 2024, actually breaking 100 km barrier.

 

[Josh_TN]

Fictionary scenario - “Orange guy” pull US forces and nuclear weapons from Europe - maybe declare not to honor NATO. Then it will be natural for Europe to consolidate defense around France and UK potential. And France or UK will be happy rest of the Europe to pay them to retain nuclear weapons production capabilities.

And as Polish citizen I see Poland going nuclear in traditional manner highly unlikely. It will require at least 30 years of investment. We have some uranium ore in Stołowe/Sowie mountains but I don’t know if it’s practical to mine. Lack of any capability to enrich uranium, nor reactor to produce plutonium. Lack of indigenous ballistic missile technology. Sorry, this is not going to fly. Only option for shortcut is, if Ukrainians forget about couple of hundred of nuclear warheads and are willing to sell them.

French weapons are SSBN warheads, so even ignoring wild political hypotheticals, practically France has nothing to offer unless Poland intends to deploy SSBNs to the Baltic Sea.

 

[Scott Kenny]

French weapons are SSBN warheads, so even ignoring wild political hypotheticals, practically France has nothing to offer unless Poland intends to deploy SSBNs to the Baltic Sea.

SSBN warheads are small and have a good power/weight ratio. Those plus their re-entry bodies alone would be a nice "donation".

 

[Josh_TN]

SSBN warheads are small and have a good power/weight ratio. Those plus their re-entry bodies alone would be a nice "donation".

It is still a bit of a leap from tactical to strategic. I cannot imagine the French design a brand new weapon just for export.

 

[Scott Kenny]

It is still a bit of a leap from tactical to strategic. I cannot imagine the French design a brand new weapon just for export.

110kt is arguably a tactical size, if big.

It's certainly within what West Germany was willing to accept being used on their soil in case of WW3.

 

[NMaude]

It's certainly within what West Germany was willing to accept being used on their soil in case of WW3.

IIRC they were prepared, if not okay with, the use of the PGM-11 Redstone MRBM on their own territory and its' W39 warhead cam in two yields - the full 3.8iMT dirty warhead and the 425KT clean warhead.

 

[Scott Kenny]

IIRC they were prepared, if not okay with, the use of the PGM-11 Redstone MRBM on their own territory and its' W39 warhead cam in two yields - the full 3.8iMT dirty warhead and the 425KT clean warhead.

Not for very long. As soon as the Redstones were replaced, Germany said no more than 200kt on their soil.

 

[Hanz2k]

Erm.

You have sounding rockets developed and produced since 1960s. The last launch was in 2024, actually breaking 100 km barrier.

Its liquid fueled: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ILR-33_AMBER.

This one is more promising - solid fuel with carbon shell: https://defence24.com/industry/polish-rocket-motor-tested-successfully-video.

But this are sounding rocket, just basically need go straight and could be fueled before launch. That’s not military grade.

We still talking about decades until we will be able to product something like HRIM 2. Actually I think that is the shortest path - we should just buy them from Ukraine.

 

[Hanz2k]

French weapons are SSBN warheads, so even ignoring wild political hypotheticals, practically France has nothing to offer unless Poland intends to deploy SSBNs to the Baltic Sea.

You forget ASMP-A and future derivatives ASN4G. This come in par with East Flank adopting Rafale as second type of airframe and significant money going to France to sustain Rafael’s, weapons and ASMP. Shame France didin’t figure this out yet.

ASMP-A will be for East flank strategic weapon - basically 600km range missile that launched above Belarus have Moscow in range. ASN4G have enough range to reach Moscow from Poland.

 

[Josh_TN]

You forget ASMP-A and future derivatives ASN4G. This come in par with East Flank adopting Rafale as second type of airframe and significant money going to France to sustain Rafael’s, weapons and ASMP. Shame France didin’t figure this out yet.

ASMP-A will be for East flank strategic weapon - basically 600km range missile that launched above Belarus have Moscow in range. ASN4G have enough range to reach Moscow from Poland.

For some reason I had thought these were withdrawn from service. That would be a much better fit.

 

[A Tentative Fleet Plan]

French weapons are SSBN warheads, so even ignoring wild political hypotheticals, practically France has nothing to offer unless Poland intends to deploy SSBNs to the Baltic Sea.

They have the air-launched ASMP, there's probably some residual institutional knowledge of the Hades ballistic missile. Not to mention that Poland has increasingly close integration with its military industrial base with that of South Korea, which has wide range of Ballistic Missiles ranging from KTSSM to Hyunmoo 5.

 

[capitan r8]

20-30 years from now will we call it the third nuclear age? New countries with nukes 2040-2050.

1) Iran - sooner probably but would be considered part of this proliferation timeline
2) S. Korea
3) Japan
4) Saudi Arabia
5) China as peer or superior numbers
6) Australia

Add to that list: Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Brazil, and maybe Sweden

 

[Scott Kenny]

Add to that list: Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Brazil, and maybe Sweden

I can see Sweden with nuclear powerplants, but nuclear weapons that aren't NATO-shared?

 

[bobbymike]

STRATCOM Boss: AI 'Will Enhance' Nuclear C2

Air Force Gen. Anthony J. Cotton, head of U.S. Strategic Command, discussed how AI can help the Pentagon with nuclear command and control.

www.airandspaceforces.com

 

[Dilandu]

can see Sweden with nuclear powerplants, but nuclear weapons that aren't NATO-shared?

Most likely part of common European deterrence; french-build nukes shared among EU members.

 

[bobbymike]

China leading ‘rapid expansion’ of nuclear arsenal, Pentagon says

China has already reached 500 such weapons and will have more than 1,000 by 2030, defense officials said.

www.defensenews.com