Current Nuclear Weapons Development

WASHINGTON: One of the most controversial new weapons in the US arsenal, the Long Range Standoff cruise missile (LRSO), meant to replace the Air Launched Cruise Missile, came under direct fire by a top Senate defense and intelligence lawmaker, Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

The senior California senator holds seats both on the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee and the Senate Intelligence Committee and is respected on both sides of the aisle for her command of the facts. Why did she question Defense Secretary Jim Mattis so closely during a Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee hearing about a proposed nuclear weapon that, at first glance, seems to be a replacement of an existing system?

“I believe it is in fact a new nuclear weapon,” Feinstein told Mattis, saying much of what informed her opinion was classified. “It’s got features which concern me greatly. I don’t see it as an effective deterrent weapon. I see Russia taking action to counter it.” And, just to make sure Mattis understood she really did have a problem with its development, she added that LRSO’s “cost is going to be inordinate.”

Of course, one lawmaker’s inordinate cost may be another’s irreplaceable deterrence tool. Mattis is not yet in either camp. Back in January, Mattis signaled he harbored doubts about the need for LRSO. “I need to look at that one.” he said then. “My going in position is that it makes sense, but I have to look at it in terms of its deterrence capability.”

LRSO is in the early stages of development, but it is already slated to get $451 million in 2018.
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http://breakingdefense.com/2017/06/feinstein-presses-mattis-on-lrso-mattis-still-thinking
 
http://www.readingeagle.com/ap/article/nuclear-lab-shutdown-endangers-us-arsenal
 
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/20/politics/us-spy-satellites-north-korea-nuclear-test/index.html
 
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/07/03/North-Korea-can-make-10-20-nuclear-warheads-think-tank-says/8191499094226/
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-northkorea-army-idUSKBN1AC2V3

https://www.yahoo.com/news/n-korea-likely-more-plutonium-previously-thought-monitor-034227680.html
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/28/north-korea-appears-have-fired-missile-japanese-media-reports/
 
Alex Lennon @atjlennon
Impt point: most likely use of #DPRK ICBM is not a first-strike weapon v US homeland, but to divide US from allies and undermine reassurance
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https://mobile.twitter.com/atjlennon/status/891302770522955776

Vipin Narang @NarangVipin
Replying to @Cold_Peace_ and 3 others
'Decent' is relative. I wouldn't put my money on midcourse interceptors. But THAAD launchers are useless.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NarangVipin/status/891302201641009152

The object you can see in the video linked to below is probably the missile's RV.

Martyn Williams @martyn_williams
NHK cameras in Hokkaido capture what appears to be end of North Korean ICBM flight.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/martyn_williams/status/891170970148286464
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/01/north-koreas-submarine-missile-tests-critical-advance-highly/
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/31/politics/north-korea-ejection-test-submarine-activity/index.html
 
F-15E Tests Upgraded B61 Nuclear Bomb

The Air Force and the National Nuclear Security Administration have successfully tested B61-12 gravity bombs on F-15E Strike Eagles. On Aug. 8, two F-15Es dropped non-nuclear test versions of the upgraded bombs at Tonopah Test Range near Nellis AFB, Nev. The B61-12 will replace older versions of the B61 air-dropped nuclear bomb, and will be carried on aircraft such as the B-2, B-21, and F-35. Earlier this year, an F-16C dropped a test assembly to evaluate the bomb’s arming and fire control system, radar altimeter, spin rocket motors, and weapons control computer. The Aug. 8 tests focused on the weapon’s non-nuclear functions and the Strike Eagle’s ability to drop the bomb, according to an NNSA release. The tests are part of a three-year process to evaluate the bomb for service. The first production unit is expected in March 2020. —Brian Everstine
 
Reporting here that yield could be up to 100 Kilotons.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/03/north-korean-nuclear-test-confirmed-in-major-escalation-by-kim-jong-un
 
Latest estimates are in the 120kt to 200kt range, though some worst case analyses suggest that the yield could have conceivably been as much as 800 kilotons, depending on factors such as the exact way the North Koreans carried out their test.

In other news: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/09/04/0200000000AEN20170904004100315.html
 
Good summation here.

http://www.38north.org/2017/09/nuke090317/

The released photographs purportedly show Kim Jong Un providing “guidance” on what the North Korean press called a “thermonuclear” warhead for a ballistic missile. The device shown in the images has many of the hallmarks of such a device (two bulbous ends shaped like a peanut consistent with the claim of a “two-stage” device); however, caution should be taken as this is the conclusion that North Korea wants the US and others to reach from viewing the images and it is likely that an actual device will have a somewhat different design and that this was only a model mock-up.
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Regardless of whether this most recent test was an operational warhead for an ICBM or simply a device, the yield of the test clearly shows North Korean progress in increasing the yields of the nuclear weapons. The significance of this is that it has the potential to dramatically increase the threat posed by its Strategic Force (responsible for ballistic missiles) as individual nuclear warheads potentially now have 10-times-greater destructive power. This would allow fewer missiles to be employed to ensure destruction of a given target, and increase the target set threatened by North Korean ICBMs by allowing a larger number of targets to be engaged with the current missile inventory. If the claim that the device just tested has a variable yield is true (from tens to hundreds of kilotons), then this would also imply a more sophisticated employment doctrine that envisions more limited, flexible and discrete targeting options than would otherwise be needed to implement a minimum deterrence, counter value doctrine.
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Latest update on the yield of the sixth test.

US Intelligence: North Korea's Sixth Test Was a 140 Kiloton 'Advanced Nuclear' Device

U.S. government sources with access to the latest intelligence regarding North Korea’s nuclear weapons program have told The Diplomat that its sixth nuclear test also involved an “advanced nuclear device.”

Per the early assessment shared with The Diplomat, the device was either a boosted fission device or, as North Korea claimed in its state media, a two-stage thermonuclear bomb. It’s unclear if the device test was the specific device North Korea showed in photographs prior to its test on Sunday.
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http://thediplomat.com/2017/09/us-intelligence-north-koreas-sixth-test-was-a-140-kiloton-advanced-nuclear-device/
 
Reports coming in that North Korea has fired what's described in some reports as an intercontinental ballistic missile towards Japan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41275614
 
https://apnews.com/9d5be2ad4dd44c6082a7982d17b84b2f/North-Korea-fires-missile-over-Japan-in-longest-ever-flight

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41289532
 
New ICBM gets boost after Mattis’ endorsement

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. — The unexpected escalation of North Korea’s atomic weapons program and Russia’s nuclear posturing are providing fresh momentum to U.S. efforts to develop a new intercontinental ballistic missile.

Early doubts about the future of the next-generation ICBM, known as the ground-based strategic deterrent (GBSD), are giving way to a growing confidence that the Pentagon is fully behind the program, military officials said Sept. 18 at the Air Force Association’s Air Space Cyber conference.

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in the past had raised questions about the need to develop a new ICBM to replace the 50-year-old Minuteman, but now firmly supports it. “Secretary Mattis said he did not see a future triad without the ICBM,” asserted Maj. Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of the 20th Air Force at Global Strike Command. Mattis gave the GBSD a ringing endorsement last week during a visit to Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, the only U.S. base to host two legs of the nuclear triad — strategic bombers and ICBMs.
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http://spacenews.com/new-icbm-gets-boost-after-mattis-endorsement/
 
US Navy, General Dynamics Electric Boat ink USD5.1 billion SSBN deal

It added that the deal accounts for foreign military sales to the UK, and that USD175.1 million in UK funding was obligated.

GDEB said the contract would fund “component and technology development as well as continued development of the Common Missile Compartment, which will be integrated into both the [US] Navy’s new SSBN and the Royal Navy’s Dreadnought-class strategic missile submarine”.

The is expected to be completed by December 2031, with GDEB stating that construction of the lead Columbia-class boat is scheduled to begin in late 2020.
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http://www.janes.com/article/74311/us-navy-general-dynamics-electric-boat-ink-usd5-1-billion-ssbn-deal
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-intelligence/north-korea-seen-moving-missiles-from-development-center-south-korean-broadcaster-idUSKCN1C502V
 
North Korea Continues Work on Second Barge Used for SLBM Testing

http://www.38north.org/2017/09/nampo092817/
 
https://breakingdefense.com/2017/10/boost-the-us-bomber-force-dollars-vs-operational-needs/
 
https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/revealed-russias-new-experimental-icbm-warheads/
 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-russia/north-korea-preparing-long-range-missile-test-ria-cites-russian-lawmaker-idUSKBN1CB21T
 
The Nobel Peace Prize for 2017
The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize for 2017 to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). The organization is receiving the award for its work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons and for its ground-breaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons.

We live in a world where the risk of nuclear weapons being used is greater than it has been for a long time. Some states are modernizing their nuclear arsenals, and there is a real danger that more countries will try to procure nuclear weapons, as exemplified by North Korea. Nuclear weapons pose a constant threat to humanity and all life on earth. Through binding international agreements, the international community has previously adopted prohibitions against land mines, cluster munitions and biological and chemical weapons. Nuclear weapons are even more destructive, but have not yet been made the object of a similar international legal prohibition.

Through its work, ICAN has helped to fill this legal gap. An important argument in the rationale for prohibiting nuclear weapons is the unacceptable human suffering that a nuclear war will cause. ICAN is a coalition of non-governmental organizations from around 100 different countries around the globe. The coalition has been a driving force in prevailing upon the world’s nations to pledge to cooperate with all relevant stakeholders in efforts to stigmatise, prohibit and eliminate nuclear weapons. To date, 108 states have made such a commitment, known as the Humanitarian Pledge.

Furthermore, ICAN has been the leading civil society actor in the endeavour to achieve a prohibition of nuclear weapons under international law. On 7 July 2017, 122 of the UN member states acceded to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. As soon as the treaty has been ratified by 50 states, the ban on nuclear weapons will enter into force and will be binding under international law for all the countries that are party to the treaty.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee is aware that an international legal prohibition will not in itself eliminate a single nuclear weapon, and that so far neither the states that already have nuclear weapons nor their closest allies support the nuclear weapon ban treaty. The Committee wishes to emphasize that the next steps towards attaining a world free of nuclear weapons must involve the nuclear-armed states. This year’s Peace Prize is therefore also a call upon these states to initiate serious negotiations with a view to the gradual, balanced and carefully monitored elimination of the almost 15,000 nuclear weapons in the world. Five of the states that currently have nuclear weapons – the USA, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China – have already committed to this objective through their accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1970. The Non-Proliferation Treaty will remain the primary international legal instrument for promoting nuclear disarmament and preventing the further spread of such weapons.

It is now 71 years since the UN General Assembly, in its very first resolution, advocated the importance of nuclear disarmament and a nuclear weapon-free world. With this year’s award, the Norwegian Nobel Committee wishes to pay tribute to ICAN for giving new momentum to the efforts to achieve this goal.

The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize for 2017 to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons has a solid grounding in Alfred Nobel’s will. The will specifies three different criteria for awarding the Peace Prize: the promotion of fraternity between nations, the advancement of disarmament and arms control and the holding and promotion of peace congresses. ICAN works vigorously to achieve nuclear disarmament. ICAN and a majority of UN member states have contributed to fraternity between nations by supporting the Humanitarian Pledge. And through its inspiring and innovative support for the UN negotiations on a treaty banning nuclear weapons, ICAN has played a major part in bringing about what in our day and age is equivalent to an international peace congress.

It is the firm conviction of the Norwegian Nobel Committee that ICAN, more than anyone else, has in the past year given the efforts to achieve a world without nuclear weapons a new direction and new vigour.

Oslo, 6 October 2017
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https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2017/press.html
 
A Hypothetical Nuclear Attack on Seoul and Tokyo: The Human Cost of War on the Korean Peninsula

At various times over the past few weeks, US President Donald Trump and other members of his administration have threatened to use military force to prevent North Korea from conducting additional nuclear or ballistic missile tests. The US carrying out any military option raises a significant risk of military escalation by the North, including the use of nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan. According to the calculations presented below, if the “unthinkable” happened, nuclear detonations over Seoul and Tokyo with North Korea’s current estimated weapon yields could result in as many as 2.1 million fatalities and 7.7 million injuries.
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http://www.38north.org/2017/10/mzagurek100417/
 
https://news.usni.org/2017/10/12/report-congress-columbia-class-submarine-program-3
 
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/187701/doubts-growing-us-will-always-defend-asian-allies.html

"SEOUL --- In South Korea and Japan there is increasing support for the deployment of nuclear weapons to defend against the growing North Korean threat, and due to public concern that the U.S. may no longer be counted on to aid allies with extended nuclear deterrence.

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency estimates North Korea may have as many as 60 nuclear weapons, and that it might have successfully miniaturized nuclear warheads to fit on its arsenal of 1,000 missiles. "
 
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/the-north-korea-crisis-proves-why-japan-south-korea-need-22171
 
GBSD Re-entry vehicle design RFI
 

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/29/trump-us-nuclear-weapons-arsenal
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/28/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-japan-south-korea.html

"For the first time in recent memory, there is a daily argument raging in both South Korea and Japan — sometimes in public, more often in private — about the nuclear option, driven by worry that the United States might hesitate to defend the countries if doing so might provoke a missile launched from the North at Los Angeles or Washington.

In South Korea, polls show 60 percent of the population favors building nuclear weapons. And nearly 70 percent want the United States to reintroduce tactical nuclear weapons for battlefield use, which were withdrawn a quarter-century ago.

There is very little public support for nuclear arms in Japan, the only nation ever to suffer a nuclear attack, but many experts believe that could reverse quickly if North and South Korea both had arsenals."
 
Russia Test Fires 'Satan 2' Ballistic Missile Capable of Wiping out UK

Russia has successfully tested a 100-tonne intercontinental ballistic missile, dubbed 'Satan 2', the country's defence ministry claims.

The rocket, also known as RS-28, was fired from Plesetsk Cosmodrome and travelled 3,600 miles before landing in far east Russia, near North Korea.

Russian media has claimed the missile could destroy an area the size of Texas - or the UK.

It is reported to have a range of nearly 7,000 miles, a payload of up to 15 warheads and the necessary speed to infiltrate any defence system.

Crews of Tu-160, Tu-95MS, and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers also took to the skies, firing cruise missiles at ground targets.

A Pacific Fleet submarine fired two ballistic missiles from the Okhotsk Sea and a northern Fleet submarine fired a ballistic missile at the Kura range

President Vladimir Putin personally oversaw each of the launches which were part of a training exercise for Russia's "Strategic Nuclear Forces".

In an official statement, the Russian Defence Ministry said: "The troops completed all tasks. All assigned targets were engaged."

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/187959/russia-test_fires-%27satan-2%27-ballistic-nuclear-missile.html
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/31/collapse-north-korea-nuclear-test-site-leaves-200-dead/
 
https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2017/10/31/americas-nuclear-weapons-will-cost-12-trillion-over-the-next-30-years/
 
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-threatens-ballistic-missile-strikes-american-forces-can-hit-u-s-bases/
 

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