Current Nuclear Weapons Development

[bobbymike]

It’s the US’s fault like always

A Misleading Metaphor: The Nuclear “Arms Race” - War on the Rocks

There is an emerging threat to the United States that will “endanger everyone,” one that can cause “escalation and misunderstandings” and even increase

warontherocks.com

For 42 years it’s the same story.

I remember in 1981 at a much younger age listening to the news and hearing that the US was building new nuclear weapons and the whole world was at risk. Soviet leaders and arms controllers would echo “the USSR only wants peace but if the US builds these dangerous weapons we will be forced to protect ourselves”

I ran to the public library to do research and found out about the massive Soviet arsenals of heavy ICBMs whose throw weight and warhead count dwarfed ours thinking “why is the media being so misleading?” Naive wasn’t I?

The more things change the more they stay the same.

 

[bobbymike]

Red China’s Concerns About Nuclear Escalation Are a Red Herring — Global Security Review

Strategic Adversaries Deterrence

globalsecurityreview.com

 

[bobbymike]

Yes with a Gt nuke developed by a US/UK nuke lab collaboration under the new Earth Defense Network

If a Future Asteroid Threatens to Destroy Earth, Could We Stop It?

While preparing for the threat of an asteroid strike might seem like a hypothetical exercise, it's really not.

www.sciencealert.com

 

[sferrin]

Yes with a Gt nuke developed by a US/UK nuke lab collaboration under the new Earth Defense Network

If a Future Asteroid Threatens to Destroy Earth, Could We Stop It?

While preparing for the threat of an asteroid strike might seem like a hypothetical exercise, it's really not.

www.sciencealert.com

Time would be the killer. And we'd probably have to beg for materials from Russia and China. Hell, we'd probably have to beg them to build it too. And if it was scheduled to hit the Western Hemisphere would they do it?

 

[Josh_TN]

Time would be the killer. And we'd probably have to beg for materials from Russia and China. Hell, we'd probably have to beg them to build it too. And if it was scheduled to hit the Western Hemisphere would they do it?

Why to all those statements? It’s not like the US has a lack of stored warheads, physics packages from disassembled weapons, and complete pits and other fissionable material from fully disassembled physics packages. There are still far over five thousand warheads in US inventory, including a handful of B53 physics packages explicitly reserved for planetary defense.

More over the US likely has access to the rockets with the greatest throw weight and the fastest turnover.

 

[NMaude]

and complete pits and other fissionable material from fully disassembled physics packages.

While we hear, relatively speaking, a lot about the primaries pits we here almost about the secondaries from dismantled TN warhead which are IIRC stored at the Y-12 plant in Tennessee.

 

[bobbymike]

B-2 Spirit Now Operational With New B61-12 Nuclear Bombs

B-2 stealth bombers have become the first aircraft ready to employ the advanced B61-12 nuclear bomb in combat.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Scott Kenny]

While we hear, relatively speaking, a lot about the primaries pits we here almost about the secondaries from dismantled TN warhead which are IIRC stored at the Y-12 plant in Tennessee.

Tritium secondaries do age out over time (fairly quickly at that) so need to be remanufactured every so often. IIRC something like every 10 years, if it's like the tritium night sights for a firearm.

B-2 Spirit Now Operational With New B61-12 Nuclear Bombs

B-2 stealth bombers have become the first aircraft ready to employ the advanced B61-12 nuclear bomb in combat.

www.thedrive.com

JDAM nukes, gotta love it.

The idea of a high yield precision nuke is less scary than a low yield precision warhead. "It's only a 5kt boom, and we are going to put it right on the target," results in a lower mental threshold for use of nukes.

 

[NMaude]

Tritium secondaries do age out over time (fairly quickly at that) so need to be remanufactured every so often. IIRC something like every 10 years, if it's like the tritium night sights for a firearm.

You're confusing the DT-boost reservoirs used in hollow-boosting the primary with the secondary, the secondaries don't use Tritium in their fusion charges just Deuterium chemically combined with Lithium-6.

 

[Josh_TN]

Interesting that the document quoted in the WarZone article lists B-61 mod 12 as strategic.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Interesting that the document quoted in the WarZone article lists B-61 mod 12 as strategic.

Low yield but strategic targets.

 

[Scott Kenny]

You're confusing the DT-boost reservoirs used in hollow-boosting the primary with the secondary, the secondaries don't use Tritium in their fusion charges just Deuterium chemically combined with Lithium-6.

Ah, yeah, LiD is a different thing entirely. Pretty sure those don't age out, deuterium and 6Li are stable.

 

[NMaude]

Pretty sure those don't age out, deuterium and 6Li are stable.

Yup! Both are stable isotopes, Tritium on the other hand has a half-life of about 12 years (It decays by beta-particle emission into Helium-3).

 

[bobbymike]

China's nuclear weapons: Expanding faster bringing more bad news - Center for Security Policy

The pace of China's military and nuclear weapons buildup has been unprecedented. Japan, Australia and South Korea especially need to stay alert to the risks.

centerforsecuritypolicy.org

 

[TomcatViP]

The Air Force pushes off the start of its E-4B ‘Doomsday Plane’ replacement program

Plans to release a request for proposals in 2020 have been delayed.

www.defensenews.com

Boeing bails out (not wanting a fixed term contract) :

Exclusive-Boeing eliminated from US Air Force's 'Doomsday Plane' competition

The U.S. Air Force has eliminated Boeing from its competition to develop a successor to the E-4B Nightwatch, Boeing confirmed on Friday, shaking up the battle to build the next version of the aircraft known as the "Doomsday Plane" due to its ability to survive a nuclear war. The move leaves...

news.yahoo.com

Sierra Nevada would be the only one left bidding (officially).

@Admin: I haven't found any dedicated thread for this.

 

[bobbymike]

The role of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan crisis

Nuclear deterrence would be key in a Taiwan crisis, in part because a PLA amphibious fleet would be vulnerable to a US nuclear strike.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[bobbymike]

Deliberate nuclear use in a war over Taiwan: Scenarios and considerations for the United States

Matthew Kroenig argues the US and the PRC would have incentives to use nuclear weapons in a Taiwan war. The US must deter PRC nuclear use.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[Kat Tsun]

Time would be the killer. And we'd probably have to beg for materials from Russia and China. Hell, we'd probably have to beg them to build it too. And if it was scheduled to hit the Western Hemisphere would they do it?

Remind me who has the space observatory in the L2 point again?

If it were going to hit them, would America do anything? That's the real question.

 

[Josh_TN]

Remind me who has the space observatory in the L2 point again?

If it were going to hit them, would America do anything? That's the real question.

It seems doubtful Web has any capacity for spotting such; it’s a sniper scope when you need a red dot sight in astronomical terms.

As for stopping an asteroid, I would expect everyone capable of such to make their preparations regardless of impact site. It is hard to imagine any object that could cause damage across a wide enough area to severely impact an entire country wouldn’t also have global climatic consequences. A hit would most likely hit water or sparsely populated areas, statistically, but depending on size that might not be especially relevant.

 

[Kat Tsun]

It seems doubtful Web has any capacity for spotting such; it’s a sniper scope when you need a red dot sight in astronomical terms.

I meant attacking the asteroid, sorry. The giant observatory in L2 is merely an example of America's outsize performance in SLVs.

 

[bobbymike]

The October 2023 bipartisan Congressional Strategic Posture Commission’s report contained two important insights concerning the implications of China’s nuclear weapons buildup: 1) the United States will soon be threatened not by “one, but two nuclear peer adversaries, each with ambitions to change the international status quo, by force,” and 2) that China will achieve “…rough quantitative parity with the United States in deployed nuclear warheads by the mid-2030s.” Unfortunately, the situation is likely even worse. On August 12, 2021, the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command Admiral Charles Richard summed it up: “We are witnessing a strategic breakout by China….The explosive growth in their nuclear and conventional forces can only be what I described as breathtaking.”

The Commission’s assessment of the 2027-2035 Chinese nuclear threat, while better than any published Pentagon assessment in decades, is still based upon flawed executive branch analysis. The Pentagon’s assessment of the Chinese nuclear buildup is very ominous, but it is probably substantially too low. There has been a slow recognition of this growing nuclear threat in the Pentagon reports. The October 2023 Pentagon report on Chinese military power, published after the Commission report (the Commission data cutoff was in May 2023), voiced increased concern about the unprecedented Chinese nuclear buildup. It revealed that China was accelerating its extensive nuclear modernization and that the Chinese nuclear weapons expansion was “on track to exceed previous projections,” which included in the 2022 Pentagon China report’s an estimate of 1,500 weapons in 2035. The Chinese nuclear warhead numbers released in the 2023 report indicated that China had “more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023,” and that it would have “over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.” Counting “operational” nuclear weapons appears to have been selected in order to make the Chinese nuclear force look lower compared to that of the United States. The U.S. nuclear weapons numbers announced by the Biden Administration in 2021 included “active” (operational), inactive, and weapons awaiting dismantlement. It did not state how many “active” nuclear warheads the United States has.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/12/06/the_congressional_strategic_posture_commissions_report_and_the_chinese_nuclear_threat_997085.html?mc_cid=ad550c607a&mc_eid=307947a252

 

[bobbymike]

Well we’ll never have an arsenal again sized for counter force and counter value in a tri-polar nuclear world. We won’t have enough to target two opposing nuclear power’s military targets.

The Rejection of Intentional Population Targeting for “Tripolar” Deterrence – Nipp

nipp.org

 

[bobbymike]

Not to sound like a broken record (too late) but why not announce a global defense program and use it to develop new nuclear warheads and super heavy lift SRMs to carry them.

Could we defend Earth against a 'rubble pile' asteroid?

How do we deal with incoming space rocks that are double trouble: Bad for Earth, but also tough to deal with due to their makeup?

www.space.com

 

[bobbymike]

Multiple reports of interest from LLNL

Occasional Papers

 

[bobbymike]

They reading my SPF posts lol!!

New nuclear deflection simulations advance planetary defense against asteroid threats

Researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) have developed a modeling tool for assessing the potential use of a nuclear device to defend the planet against catastrophic asteroid impacts.

phys.org

 

[NMaude]

So 25 W53s have been kept in reserve for planetary defence? I suppose that's for an asteroid deflection mission? Either way if this is the case then I hope they've remanufactured the warheads primaries giving them new HE-lenses.

 

[QuadroFX]

Planetary defence, yeah

 

[sferrin]

Planetary defence, yeah

Given we don't have anything to carry them they're not much use as weapons. Now if we had a pile of B41s laying around. . .

 

[QuadroFX]

Given we don't have anything to carry them

Creating an orbital platform for basing nuclear weapons is a matter of a couple of months, during which old projects from the Cold War will be taken out of the dusty box.
This is not to mention the fact that any statements about "planetary defense against asteroids" are made for complete idiots.

 

[sferrin]

Creating an orbital platform for basing nuclear weapons is a matter of a couple of months,

 

[Scott Kenny]

Creating an orbital platform for basing nuclear weapons is a matter of a couple of months, during which old projects from the Cold War will be taken out of the dusty box.
This is not to mention the fact that any statements about "planetary defense against asteroids" are made for complete idiots.

Doing so would require renegotiating the Outer Space Treaty...

I'm leaning towards having a standing contract with SpaceX for a short order launch of a Falcon Heavy with a "special payload" already prepped. Said Special Payload being about 15klbs/7000kg.

 

[bobbymike]

If You Build It, They Might Come — Global Security Review

Strategic Adversaries Deterrence

globalsecurityreview.com

 

[bobbymike]

Doing so would require renegotiating the Outer Space Treaty...

I'm leaning towards having a standing contract with SpaceX for a short order launch of a Falcon Heavy with a "special payload" already prepped. Said Special Payload being about 15klbs/7000kg.

ATK prior to NG acquisition proposed an all solid Antares with 25k lbs to LEO

 

[Scott Kenny]

ATK prior to NG acquisition proposed an all solid Antares with 25k lbs to LEO

Problem is, for asteroid divert missions, you're basically talking about a Lunar mission in terms of how much energy it's going to take. And those B53s are 8000lbs each.

 

[NMaude]

And those B53s are 8000lbs each.

Before they were retired 20 years ago the Titan IVB would've been a good launch candidate but now it would be something like the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy, Vulcan Centaur or New Glenn.

 

[bobbymike]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jan/23/with-assist-from-russia-chinas-plutonium-reactors-/?mc_cid=7f825bd676&mc_eid=307947a252

The Air Force think tank report reports that China’s rapidly expanding warhead arsenal could reach 1,270 warheads by 2030, based on the plutonium production capabilities of its faster neutron reactor.

 

[TJDougherty01]

Ah, yeah, LiD is a different thing entirely. Pretty sure those don't age out, deuterium and 6Li are stable.

Correct. Tritium has a roughly 12 year half life. The Li in the secondary is converted to tritium by the primary neutrons, and then participates with the deuterium in the secondary fusion reaction.

 

[Forest Green]

"Tactical Nuclear Missiles"??

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiM8c3kdnk4

 

[bobbymike]

U.S. Nuclear Weapons

U.S. Nuclear Weapons Michaela Dodge, PhD To assess U.S. nuclear weapons properly, one must understand three things: their essential national security function, the growing nuclear threat posed by adversaries, and the current state of U.S. nuclear forces and their supporting infrastructure. Such...

www.heritage.org

 

[bobbymike]

An unprepared West contemplates threat of Russia’s nonstrategic nukes

Opinion: A deeper and broader study of Russia’s approach to nonstrategic nuclear weapons is essential to maintaining the peace in Europe.

www.defensenews.com