China Projecting Power in South and East China Seas

[Abraham Gubler]

Well yes but: Sun Tzu says, “Make your enemy surrender without physical fighting. ... " It may not take too much steel and concrete to intimidate. Plus the only ones permanently in the way are Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. The US comes and goes with the political winds. Maybe a passing Typhoon can make the problem go away.

Sure but I don't think these nations will be so easily intimidated as click bait, writing, pseudo journalists on the internet. And while the US may come and go with the winds others like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia are all physically stuck in this region despite the current prevailing. And that list of nations can deploy the weapons that will smoke any PLA sand bank base.

 

[Steve Pace]

North Korea is a pawn of China and LOOK OUT - North Korea is GOING to do something VERY stupid soon. China is waiting to pick up the pieces. I hope the U.S. it's allies and friends are ready. -SP

 

[bobbymike]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-04-13/once-and-future-superpower?cid=nlc-twofa-20160428&sp_mid=51260525&sp_rid=Ym9iYnltaWtlMzRAZ21haWwuY29tS0&spMailingID=51260525&spUserID=OTcxMjgxNjgzMzES1&spJobID=903609739&spReportId=OTAzNjA5NzM5S0

 

[sferrin]

A lilly pad or any other base is pretty useless as such if its fuel dumps are burning wrecks and its tarmac is cratered. And the GROWLER (S-400) does not put a 450 mile diameter no go zone around its battery location. Just like the GUIDELINE (S-75) did not erect a 30 mile diameter do not cross line.

Well first of all I didn't say "no-go zone" I said, "red dot", meaning area where you could expect to be fired upon if they wanted to. Secondly, last I checked, S-400 was a tad more effective than the SA-2. And to make those islands in the burning, cratered wrecks one will need to run a gauntlet of several hundred miles with no terrain to hide behind. (Yes, yes, I'm aware the Earth itself can but throw an AWACS and fighters out there and that goes away.)

 

[Rickshaw]

North Korea is a pawn of China and LOOK OUT - North Korea is GOING to do something VERY stupid soon. China is waiting to pick up the pieces. I hope the U.S. it's allies and friends are ready. -SP

I am sure the Chinese will be surprised to learn that the DPRK is a "pawn"...

 

[bobbymike]

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-chinas-economic-collapse-save-the-south-china-sea-13713

 

[sferrin]

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-chinas-economic-collapse-save-the-south-china-sea-13713

I hear about China's coming economic apocalypse about once a month. Yet their economy continues to grow about a dozen times faster than ours. ???

 

[NeilChapman]

North Korea is a pawn of China and LOOK OUT - North Korea is GOING to do something VERY stupid soon. China is waiting to pick up the pieces. I hope the U.S. it's allies and friends are ready. -SP

N Korea is GOING to do something stupid? I certainly wouldn't characterize what they have been doing as smart.

If by "China is waiting to pick up the pieces" you're implying that China is hoping or even expecting to pick up the pieces I'd have to disagree. My thought is that China isn't planning to, doesn't want to, and if at all possible will do whatever is necessary to NOT pick up the pieces. Whatever happens I'd expect them to first close and block their border with N Korea.

I'll expand that by saying that I would anticipate they would enter N Korea to "help" S Korea by ensuring that the DMZ is "secure". China has been using the SCS much as the Berlin Wall and "satellite states" were used by the USSR and now Russia. They want to do whatever is necessary to protect the power structure of the communist party.

If I were the US and S Korea I'd be planning, preparing and practicing "picking up the pieces". I'd even engage all other nations in the area to participate. It is inevitable that N Korea will implode, either via natural disaster or actions initiated by accident or on purpose from elements of the N Korean government.

I'd probably even publicize the planning process. Best to let all nations know what you will and will not be doing with respect to a sovereign territory and the self-determination of it's people.

 

[kaiserd]

North Korea is a pawn of China and LOOK OUT - North Korea is GOING to do something VERY stupid soon. China is waiting to pick up the pieces. I hope the U.S. it's allies and friends are ready. -SP

N Korea is GOING to do something stupid? I certainly wouldn't characterize what they have been doing as smart.

If by "China is waiting to pick up the pieces" you're implying that China is hoping or even expecting to pick up the pieces I'd have to disagree. My thought is that China isn't planning to, doesn't want to, and if at all possible will do whatever is necessary to NOT pick up the pieces. Whatever happens I'd expect them to first close and block their border with N Korea.

I'll expand that by saying that I would anticipate they would enter N Korea to "help" S Korea by ensuring that the DMZ is "secure". China has been using the SCS much as the Berlin Wall and "satellite states" were used by the USSR and now Russia. They want to do whatever is necessary to protect the power structure of the communist party.

If I were the US and S Korea I'd be planning, preparing and practicing "picking up the pieces". I'd even engage all other nations in the area to participate. It is inevitable that N Korea will implode, either via natural disaster or actions initiated by accident or on purpose from elements of the N Korean government.

I'd probably even publicize the planning process. Best to let all nations know what you will and will not be doing with respect to a sovereign territory and the self-determination of it's people.

I largely agree; NKorea is an embarrassing mess for China, one they would like to leave well alone and leave to the next generation of leaders, of the generation after that, etc.
A NKorea regime that must know itself that it will eventually all crumble, it's people paying the price, it's only real tactic to play is "don't mess with us, we're crazy" with nuclear weapons in hand.
No disrespect meant but glad I wasn't born or have to live there.

Eventually somebody (principally South Korea and China) will pay the bills of the inevitable clean-up; imagen it will be a long expensive process, effectively dealing with the collapse of a country sized cult with all that entails on an economic and personal level.

 

[bobbymike]

http://breakingdefense.com/2016/05/what-prc-president-is-really-doing-what-the-uniform-means/?utm_campaign=Breaking+Defense+Daily+Digest&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=29189380&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8CVw5Tcf-eQ7aUXZJ_V3uksm5dEMGlm2nRwBxRmENZajhMpw-Zp37RzFAHn5oQ1On6ZRro3hQBZTXb-0ZHjEe6-wOX4A&_hsmi=29189380

 

[Grey Havoc]

China military singer performs on South China Sea island (Associated Press, via the Asahi Shimbun)

 

[NeilChapman]

Think of them as seven brand new "lilly pads". They'll be defended, and with S-400s that effectively puts a 450 mile dia. "red dot" around them. Ship attack aircraft, such as Tu-16s, will be able to operate out of them, considerably increasing their reach. Patrols boats as well. Nothing would prevent them from forward deploying conventional ballistic or cruise missiles on them either. I'd say they significantly increases their ability to exert coercive influence over the area. And I'd be astonished if this weren't but just the first wave of island building. Now they know nobody will do anything about it they really have no reason to pretend restraint.

A lilly pad or any other base is pretty useless as such if its fuel dumps are burning wrecks and its tarmac is cratered. And the GROWLER (S-400) does not put a 450 mile diameter no go zone around its battery location. Just like the GUIDELINE (S-75) did not erect a 30 mile diameter do not cross line.

That's assuming someone blows them up. The PRC is taking a calculated risk, expecting that no one will blow them up. And if someone does blow them up, the usefulness of the islands will be at an end.

The purpose is intimidation and pressure; "How much can we get" - "How far can we go". The PRC wants to create new "facts on the ground" prior to a new US presidential election. Obama seems willing to take calculated risks to leave the next President with options.

The typical solution is to treat these actions as you would any schoolyard bully. You ignore their threats and continue with business as usual - but with the teacher around to provide oversight should they lash out. You also need to be politically prepared to receive (and give) the occasional black eye. That's the kicker. Usually both children get sent to the office and there is no real winner.

What other nations are willing to complete joint military exercises in these waters with the United States? It's pretty risky from a political standpoint.

This calls for leadership and chess-like strategy. You want the PRC position rejected by the world without the US being involved.

Sounds like a job for the "IMF".

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.navytimes.com/story/military/2016/05/05/stennis-hong-kong-port-visit-canceled-global-times-editorial/83971974/

 

[Grey Havoc]

Taiwan enters South China Sea legal fray (The Yomiuri Shimbun)

 

[bobbymike]

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/china-building-missiles-strike-guam/?utm_source=Freedom+Mail&utm_campaign=17abcab994-WFB_Morning_Beacon_05_11_165_10_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b5e6e0e9ea-17abcab994-46005157
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Like a broken record I will say again, the US should abrogate the INF for conventional missiles and start building hundreds of IRBMs for the Pacific Theater.

 

[sferrin]

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/china-building-missiles-strike-guam/?utm_source=Freedom+Mail&utm_campaign=17abcab994-WFB_Morning_Beacon_05_11_165_10_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b5e6e0e9ea-17abcab994-46005157
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Like a broken record I will say again, the US should abrogate the INF for conventional missiles and start building hundreds of IRBMs for the Pacific Theater.

Preach it brother!

 

[Rickshaw]

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/china-building-missiles-strike-guam/?utm_source=Freedom+Mail&utm_campaign=17abcab994-WFB_Morning_Beacon_05_11_165_10_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b5e6e0e9ea-17abcab994-46005157
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Like a broken record I will say again, the US should abrogate the INF for conventional missiles and start building hundreds of IRBMs for the Pacific Theater.

Why? Well, first you'd need to overcome the resistance of the USAF to them (Pilot mafia, anyone?). Then you'd need to get the USN to agree to put them on their ships, 'cause there aren't that many bits of land in range to base them on...

What advantage does an IRBM have, BTW, over a cruise missile, except speed?

What are you going to do, when the PRC or Russia starts to build hundreds of it's own IRBMs?

 

[NeilChapman]

Interesting read...

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-economy-past-the-point-no-return-16139

The interesting parts include those indices that are outside the PRC's purview.

 

[Grey Havoc]

http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/05/beijing-setting-stage-war-south-china-sea/128292/

 

[sferrin]

http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/05/beijing-setting-stage-war-south-china-sea/128292/

War implies a fight. I fully expect the US to stay at home with it's tail between it's legs. China is going to friggin' steamroll those we left twisting in the wind.

 

[Rickshaw]

http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/05/beijing-setting-stage-war-south-china-sea/128292/

War implies a fight. I fully expect the US to stay at home with it's tail between it's legs. China is going to friggin' steamroll those we left twisting in the wind.

Of course that is what you expect. You doubt your own nation. I expect that Washington will, as usual fumble around initially, find it's backbone and will stand resolute against Beijing. It will manufacture a casus belli so as to appear the victim, as it invariably does in most international disputes.

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/asia-pacific/2016/05/14/analysis-china-builds-amphibious-capabilities-taiwan-scenario/84372014/

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-pentagons-2016-china-military-report-what-you-need-know-16209

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.armytimes.com/story/military/2016/05/14/heres-how-armys-pacific-mission-expanding-now/84241910/

 

[bobbymike]

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-undersea-great-wall-16222

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-JA1ffd5Ms

 

[Arian]

Of course that is what you expect. You doubt your own nation.

When there's a Dem in the White House, fully expect these people to cheer for America's enemies (just as the Dems did when Bush was in the White House, mind you).

Politics has blinded them to the point that they can no longer make any objective observations without assuming that the "other side" of the political divide is a cowardly treacherous anti-American plot. And so, we get posts like that.

Of course, all this hoopla over some confrontation with China is nonsense to begin with. China makes noise for internal consumption, and its best to ignore, not to engage. But then again this entire thread is so choked full of nonsense.

 

[Rickshaw]

Of course that is what you expect. You doubt your own nation.

When there's a Dem in the White House, fully expect these people to cheer for America's enemies (just as the Dems did when Bush was in the White House, mind you).

Politics has blinded them to the point that they can no longer make any objective observations without assuming that the "other side" of the political divide is a cowardly treacherous anti-American plot. And so, we get posts like that.

Of course, all this hoopla over some confrontation with China is nonsense to begin with. China makes noise for internal consumption, and its best to ignore, not to engage. But then again this entire thread is so choked full of nonsense.

I find the general level of negativity, the belief in a "right to rule", disheartening. They are still smarting it appears at the defeat at the hands of the American people of the right-wing agenda of the Republican Party after it lead them into war and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocents in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Republican Party is going to be defeated again through it's abandonment of the centre with Trump. I wonder how many defeats they will need to learn that it is the centre where the majority resides, not the fringes?

They would be better off seeking real, workable solutions rather than their continual bleating about how terrible the Democrats are and by extension the American people. They shouldn't seek to browbeat people but to lead them. This is politics 101 IMO. Intense partisanship achieves nothing except division.

 

[Arian]

I find the general level of negativity, the belief in a "right to rule", disheartening. They are still smarting it appears at the defeat at the hands of the American people of the right-wing agenda of the Republican Party after it lead them into war and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocents in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Republican Party is going to be defeated again through it's abandonment of the centre with Trump. I wonder how many defeats they will need to learn that it is the centre where the majority resides, not the fringes?

They would be better off seeking real, workable solutions rather than their continual bleating about how terrible the Democrats are and by extension the American people. They shouldn't seek to browbeat people but to lead them. This is politics 101 IMO. Intense partisanship achieves nothing except division.

The surest way to lose is to focus exclusively on negativity and on complaining about the incumbents. The funny thing is how so many of them are pinning their hopes on a candidate who flat out says he will withdraw America from its global position, and essentially ally it with Putin's Russia. A guy who will do exactly the opposite of what they claim to want out of an administration. So bizarre.

 

[bobbymike]

http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/how-good-are-they-the-latest-insights-into-chinas-military-tech/

 

[Grey Havoc]

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/chinese-intercept-u-s-military-spy-plane-over-south-china-n576351

 

[Grey Havoc]

China demands end to U.S. surveillance after aircraft intercept (Reuters)

 

[sferrin]

China demands end to U.S. surveillance after aircraft intercept (Reuters)

Yo, China. . . .

 

[Rickshaw]

China demands end to U.S. surveillance after aircraft intercept (Reuters)

Yo, China. . . .

I wonder what will happen if the Chinese find their own William C. Rogers III?

 

[Abraham Gubler]

China demands end to U.S. surveillance after aircraft intercept (Reuters)

Yo, China. . . .

I wonder what will happen if the Chinese find their own William C. Rogers III?

Bad news for airliners flying out of Somalia that refuse to monitor international distress calls on radio during Chinese anti piracy ops?

In other words do some research if you want to bother this forum with historical factoids.

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/20/opinions/obama-vietnam-visit-fontaine/index.html

http://162.242.234.155/blog/the-buzz/can-us-vietnam-relations-move-above-beyond-the-china-16288

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2016/05/22/threat-russian-and-chinese-warplanes-mounts/84673228/

 

[Grey Havoc]

http://www.eaglespeak.us/2016/05/chinese-artificial-islands-ecological.html

 

[bobbymike]

http://dailysignal.com/2016/05/26/chinese-ballistic-missile-submarines-should-definitely-cause-concern/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=thf-fb

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.ibtimes.com/south-china-sea-controversy-beijing-planning-air-defense-identification-zone-amid-us-2376559

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1003.html?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=rand_social

 

[Grey Havoc]

Japan protests Chinese gas rig construction in East China Sea (The Asahi Shimbun)

 

[Grey Havoc]

http://www.ibtimes.com/south-china-sea-controversy-beijing-planning-air-defense-identification-zone-amid-us-2376559

A few more details: China plans air defense zone over disputed isles in South China Sea (The Asahi Shimbun)