China Projecting Power in South and East China Seas

[Rickshaw]

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/asia-times-pentagon-trying-stop-chinese-air-defense-zone-disputed-sea/

Wow. Putin an Xi probably have to take downers daily to keep from laughing themselves to death at the incompetence of this administration.

Wait until they see the next Republican administration's antics if either Trump or Rubio get elected...

 

[bobbymike]

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/asia-times-pentagon-trying-stop-chinese-air-defense-zone-disputed-sea/

Wow. Putin an Xi probably have to take downers daily to keep from laughing themselves to death at the incompetence of this administration.

Wait until they see the next Republican administration's antics if either Trump or Rubio get elected...

Funny how for 7 years it was 'Bush's fault' and now it's a 'hypothetical next administration might hypothetically do's" fault.

FYI Rubio dropped out two weeks ago and is not eligible in a contested convention due to Rule 40. So while convention eligibility rules may be changed it is very unlikely Rubio will be elected in 2016. Probably wasn't in Wikipedia yet?

 

[Rickshaw]

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/asia-times-pentagon-trying-stop-chinese-air-defense-zone-disputed-sea/

Wow. Putin an Xi probably have to take downers daily to keep from laughing themselves to death at the incompetence of this administration.

Wait until they see the next Republican administration's antics if either Trump or Rubio get elected...

Funny how for 7 years it was 'Bush's fault' and now it's a 'hypothetical next administration might hypothetically do's" fault.

FYI Rubio dropped out two weeks ago and is not eligible in a contested convention due to Rule 40. So while convention eligibility rules may be changed it is very unlikely Rubio will be elected in 2016. Probably wasn't in Wikipedia yet?

My apologies, it should have been Ted Cruz. Just goes to show how little attention I give to US politics...

 

[Grey Havoc]

https://blog.usni.org/2016/04/06/white-hulls-to-the-front-in-westpac

 

[Grey Havoc]

China Begins Operation of Lighthouse on Artificial Island in South China Sea (gCaptain/Reuters)

 

[NeilChapman]

http://www.navytimes.com/story/military/2016/04/06/4-star-admiral-wants-confront-china-white-house-says-not-so-fast/82472290/

 

[sferrin]

"Not so fast. They haven't deployed ICBMs there yet so we wouldn't want to move prematurely."

 

[Grey Havoc]

Ye gods.

 

[bobbymike]

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/obamas-pentagon-chiefs-military-suffered-overbearing-white-house/

 

[bobbymike]

http://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/AFA/6379b747-7730-4f82-9b45-a1c80d6c8fdb/UploadedImages/Events/Heussy/MeetingChallengesof2ndNuclearAg1.pdf

 

[Rickshaw]

"Not so fast. They haven't deployed ICBMs there yet so we wouldn't want to move prematurely."

"Let us instead, blow them up before they even think about putting ICBMs there!"

 

[bobbymike]

https://news.usni.org/2016/04/08/document-report-to-congress-on-maritime-disputes-involving-china

 

[bobbymike]

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-stop-china-dominating-the-south-china-sea-15732

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2015/07/chinas-new-islands-are-clearly-military/118591/?oref=DefenseOneFB

 

[bobbymike]

http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/04/china-building-up-south-china-sea.html

The quiet conquest of the SCS continues

 

[Grey Havoc]

http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/04/china-building-up-south-china-sea.html

The quiet conquest of the SCS continues

Indeed, though I doubt that it will remain quiet for too much longer.

A little more detail on the PRC's latest expansions: http://freebeacon.com/national-security/china-plan-for-military-buildup-disputed-island/

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/04/12/chinese-fighter-jets-seen-on-contested-south-china-sea-island-evidence-another-bold-move.html

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.wsj.com/article_email/how-china-upstaged-u-s-with-a-great-wall-of-sand-1460439025-lMyQjAxMTI2NjE4MzQxNjM3Wj

Question for anyone who might know. When you build an island upon submerged reefs what happens to the reef and the wildlife? Are they destroyed or radically altered forever? Cause I haven't heard a peep from our watermelon environmentalists yet I read many articles on 'global warmings' apparent impact of reefs. I guess when an authoritarian regime actually physically destroys something (as opposed to the nebulous effects of a theory) they're not so concerned?

 

[Avimimus]

http://www.wsj.com/article_email/how-china-upstaged-u-s-with-a-great-wall-of-sand-1460439025-lMyQjAxMTI2NjE4MzQxNjM3Wj

Question for anyone who might know. When you build an island upon submerged reefs what happens to the reef and the wildlife? Are they destroyed or radically altered forever? Cause I haven't heard a peep from our watermelon environmentalists yet I read many articles on 'global warmings' apparent impact of reefs. I guess when an authoritarian regime actually physically destroys something (as opposed to the nebulous effects of a theory) they're not so concerned?

Coral bleaching has the potentially to destroy hundreds of thousands of kilometres of coral reef. It can also impact large enough areas that one can lose thousands of species to extinction.

So the destruction of one or two reefs through construction is trivial in comparison.

However, you'll find that plenty of people care - even if it isn't reported in the media outlets you prefer. If you'd like to join environmentalists and leftists in protesting there are a lot of petitions you can sign:
https://www.google.ca/search?num=50&biw=2882&bih=1513&q=South+China+Sea+coral+reef+petition&oq=South+China+Sea+coral+reef+petition&gs_l=serp.3...31837.33404.0.33578.10.10.0.0.0.0.120.849.9j1.10.0....0...1c.1.64.serp..0.7.588.7W12X53uVdc

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.wsj.com/article_email/how-china-upstaged-u-s-with-a-great-wall-of-sand-1460439025-lMyQjAxMTI2NjE4MzQxNjM3Wj

Question for anyone who might know. When you build an island upon submerged reefs what happens to the reef and the wildlife? Are they destroyed or radically altered forever? Cause I haven't heard a peep from our watermelon environmentalists yet I read many articles on 'global warmings' apparent impact of reefs. I guess when an authoritarian regime actually physically destroys something (as opposed to the nebulous effects of a theory) they're not so concerned?

Coral bleaching has the potentially to destroy hundreds of thousands of kilometres of coral reef. It can also impact large enough areas that one can lose thousands of species to extinction.

So the destruction of one or two reefs through construction is trivial in comparison.

However, you'll find that plenty of people care - even if it isn't reported in the media outlets you prefer. If you'd like to join environmentalists and leftists in protesting there are a lot of petitions you can sign:
https://www.google.ca/search?num=50&biw=2882&bih=1513&q=South+China+Sea+coral+reef+petition&oq=South+China+Sea+coral+reef+petition&gs_l=serp.3...31837.33404.0.33578.10.10.0.0.0.0.120.849.9j1.10.0....0...1c.1.64.serp..0.7.588.7W12X53uVdc

Appreciate the information. Is all coral bleaching due to climate change or is it natural with some additional Impact speculated due to climate change?

 

[Orionblamblam]

Coral bleaching has the potentially to destroy hundreds of thousands of kilometres of coral reef. It can also impact large enough areas that one can lose thousands of species to extinction....If you'd like to join environmentalists and leftists in protesting there are a lot of petitions you can sign:

Given that at the end of the last ice age ocean levels rose 28 meters in 500 years ("meltwater pulse 1b," from 11,500 to 11,000 years ago), clearly all the coral reefs on Earth were drowned under a whole lot of less-saline, sunlight absorbing water in an extreme hurry. Did the Atlanteans have a petition drive that saved the reefs? Or was it the Lemurians? Perhaps the dark magic of the Acheronian Empire saved the reefs?

 

[Abraham Gubler]

Coral bleaching has the potentially to destroy hundreds of thousands of kilometres of coral reef. It can also impact large enough areas that one can lose thousands of species to extinction....If you'd like to join environmentalists and leftists in protesting there are a lot of petitions you can sign:

Given that at the end of the last ice age ocean levels rose 28 meters in 500 years ("meltwater pulse 1b," from 11,500 to 11,000 years ago), clearly all the coral reefs on Earth were drowned under a whole lot of less-saline, sunlight absorbing water in an extreme hurry. Did the Atlanteans have a petition drive that saved the reefs? Or was it the Lemurians? Perhaps the dark magic of the Acheronian Empire saved the reefs?

When the next glacial period (we live in what's called an inter-glacial optimum) comes courtesy of the Milankovitch Cycle (sometime in the next few thousand years, or perhaps it has already started) all that coral is going to have some pretty hard times when the sea levels drop back that 28 meters in 500 odd years. Come to think of it so will just about every other living thing on the planet. Liquid water is the source of life as we know it. Glaciers trap liquid water turn the rest of world between ice and water into a desert. 2.5 million years of orbital and subsequent climate history. The climate change truth so inconvenient it shall never be mentioned!

 

[Airplane]

Coral bleaching has the potentially to destroy hundreds of thousands of kilometres of coral reef. It can also impact large enough areas that one can lose thousands of species to extinction....If you'd like to join environmentalists and leftists in protesting there are a lot of petitions you can sign:

Given that at the end of the last ice age ocean levels rose 28 meters in 500 years ("meltwater pulse 1b," from 11,500 to 11,000 years ago), clearly all the coral reefs on Earth were drowned under a whole lot of less-saline, sunlight absorbing water in an extreme hurry. Did the Atlanteans have a petition drive that saved the reefs? Or was it the Lemurians? Perhaps the dark magic of the Acheronian Empire saved the reefs?

When the next glacial period (we live in what's called an inter-glacial optimum) comes courtesy of the Milankovitch Cycle (sometime in the next few thousand years, or perhaps it has already started) all that coral is going to have some pretty hard times when the sea levels drop back that 28 meters in 500 odd years. Come to think of it so will just about every other living thing on the planet. Liquid water is the source of life as we know it. Glaciers trap liquid water turn the rest of world between ice and water into a desert. 2.5 million years of orbital and subsequent climate history. The climate change truth so inconvenient it shall never be mentioned!

You sir are obviously asking for your state's attorney general to prosecute you for speaking out against global warming and brining science into the discussion! Maybe you work for the big oil companies are spreading lies? Hmmmm.

 

[sferrin]

Coral bleaching has the potentially to destroy hundreds of thousands of kilometres of coral reef. It can also impact large enough areas that one can lose thousands of species to extinction....If you'd like to join environmentalists and leftists in protesting there are a lot of petitions you can sign:

Given that at the end of the last ice age ocean levels rose 28 meters in 500 years ("meltwater pulse 1b," from 11,500 to 11,000 years ago), clearly all the coral reefs on Earth were drowned under a whole lot of less-saline, sunlight absorbing water in an extreme hurry. Did the Atlanteans have a petition drive that saved the reefs? Or was it the Lemurians? Perhaps the dark magic of the Acheronian Empire saved the reefs?

When the next glacial period (we live in what's called an inter-glacial optimum) comes courtesy of the Milankovitch Cycle (sometime in the next few thousand years, or perhaps it has already started) all that coral is going to have some pretty hard times when the sea levels drop back that 28 meters in 500 odd years. Come to think of it so will just about every other living thing on the planet. Liquid water is the source of life as we know it. Glaciers trap liquid water turn the rest of world between ice and water into a desert. 2.5 million years of orbital and subsequent climate history. The climate change truth so inconvenient it shall never be mentioned!

You sir are obviously asking for your state's attorney general to prosecute you for speaking out against global warming and brining science into the discussion! Maybe you work for the big oil companies are spreading lies? Hmmmm.

Hell, Bill Nye will be screaming for his imprisonment any minute now.

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-flexes-its-military-muscles-america-does-absolutely-15939

 

[Rickshaw]

http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-flexes-its-military-muscles-america-does-absolutely-15939

How do you think Washington should respond?

Nuke Beijing?

Or do you think getting the PRC to agree to the Paris Accord on Climate Change first might be a good idea?

 

[NeilChapman]

http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-flexes-its-military-muscles-america-does-absolutely-15939

How do you think Washington should respond?

Nuke Beijing?

Or do you think getting the PRC to agree to the Paris Accord on Climate Change first might be a good idea?

The US has sent A-10's to the PI to patrol the South China Sea. Appartently there are bad actors in the area.

They have already signed the Paris Accord. Please clarify the purpose of your question.

 

[sferrin]

http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-flexes-its-military-muscles-america-does-absolutely-15939

How do you think Washington should respond?

Nuke Beijing?

Or do you think getting the PRC to agree to the Paris Accord on Climate Change first might be a good idea?

The US has sent A-10's to the PI to patrol the South China Sea. Appartently there are bad actors in the area.

They have already signed the Paris Accord. Please clarify the purpose of your question.

Apparently it's okay for China to run roughshod over the South China Sea if only they'll convert to nuclear power. (Funny how they get a pass but if the West does it it will bring on the apocalypse.)

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/04/27/Will-Beijings-South-China-Sea-land-creation-lose-it-the-peace.aspx

 

[sferrin]

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/04/27/Will-Beijings-South-China-Sea-land-creation-lose-it-the-peace.aspx

I doubt China cares if it "loses the peace". It's getting everything it wants, and before much longer will be able to control the entire South China Sea. Other countries in the area can complain about claims, and the UN can huff and puff all it wants, and nothing will happen.

 

[bobbymike]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sees-new-flashpoint-in-south-china-sea-1461714183

 

[NeilChapman]

I know that this is the "China Expanded Air Defense Zone" thread and some of you may think that I'm being facetious. I am not. It's
imperative that the United States show our brothers and sisters in the Pacific the "best of the US" and perhaps it will defuse some the
unfounded concerns of the PRC.

My suggestion is that it's time for the US to partner with the PI, Vietnam and Malaysia through the auspices of the Malaysia’s Peacekeeping
Center to train personnel in Coast Guard, Humanitarian and Disaster Relief duties. We can take several Whidbey Island-class LSD's today, more
as the LX(R) amphibs come online, paint them white and start training in the local waters between these three countries. There may be other
countries that wish to participate in this training as well such as Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, Japan, Australia, New Guinean, New Zealand,
Japan...

It's important for peaceful peoples, families with histories really, to be trained and ready to assist each other in Humanitarian Assistance and
Disaster Relief (HADR) missions. Especially in the Pacific Rim where we know that there is a very active volcano in N Korea and we've seen the
past devastation in Indonesia, Thailand, Japan, Sumatra, Solomon Islands, American Samoa, Samoa and Tonga (Niuatoputapu). I think that
full disaster exercises utilizing the assistance of the Pacific Fleet and the humanitarian capabilities of the participating militaries should be run
every two years with full exercises on paper happening every other year. A chance to learn from the last year and plan for the next year.
Smaller exercises, such as piracy and drug interdiction, surface and aircraft identification, ship boarding and other Coast Guard duties taking
place constantly.

The full exercise will mimic a tsunami relief effort where major infrastructures 5-10 miles inland have been destroyed. This will necessitate
landing craft, significant aircraft sorties, high levels of operational and logistical support coordination, triage and medivac coordination between
not only the Coast Guards of these countries but their militaries as well. Think of it as a multi-nation Coast Guard/Military coordination effort
for HADR missions. If you don't practice together consistantly, how can you work together effectively in an emergency?

If someone would just pass this on to the SECDEF, SECSTATE and POTUS I'd appreciate it.

 

[Rickshaw]

Such hubris. I'd be careful, the Gods have a reputation for dealing with people with that attitude!

Anything that promotes alliance building is a good thing. Your nation is not the centre of the world, despite your belief it is. It is just one larger nation amongst many nations. The PRC threatens many nations directly, you are in the South China Sea to help protect them and the trade they supply to your own nation. It would be better for them to take some responsibility for their own defence and they aren't going to do that as long as "big brother" is willing to arrogantly step in and take it away from them.

It is obvious you have learnt little from history. Vietnam was a good case in point. The US military stepped in and took over the conduct of the war and sidelined the ARVN and its other forces. The result was that when the US people grew tired of the war, the Vietnamese weren't equipped, trained or ready to take over the war. "Vietnamisation" was a crash program to get them ready for when the US forces finally left their country and they to their fate. Similar things happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. The US appears unable to share responsibility and unwilling to accept the consequences when their side starts losing because it's truly unpopular.

 

[bobbymike]

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/scarborough-shoal-red-line-the-philippine-us-military-15938

Are you going to Scarborough Shoal
CVNs, Virginias and Burkes.........

 

[NeilChapman]

Such hubris. I'd be careful, the Gods have a reputation for dealing with people with that attitude!

Anything that promotes alliance building is a good thing. Your nation is not the centre of the world, despite your belief it is. It is just one larger nation amongst many nations. The PRC threatens many nations directly, you are in the South China Sea to help protect them and the trade they supply to your own nation. It would be better for them to take some responsibility for their own defence and they aren't going to do that as long as "big brother" is willing to arrogantly step in and take it away from them.

It is obvious you have learnt little from history. Vietnam was a good case in point. The US military stepped in and took over the conduct of the war and sidelined the ARVN and its other forces. The result was that when the US people grew tired of the war, the Vietnamese weren't equipped, trained or ready to take over the war. "Vietnamisation" was a crash program to get them ready for when the US forces finally left their country and they to their fate. Similar things happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. The US appears unable to share responsibility and unwilling to accept the consequences when their side starts losing because it's truly unpopular.

I was talking about humanitarian and disaster relief coordination. How did that get to Vietnam, the Middle East and popularity? You lost me.

 

[NeilChapman]

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/scarborough-shoal-red-line-the-philippine-us-military-15938

Are you going to Scarborough Shoal
CVNs, Virginias and Burkes.........

BAHAHAHAHA....You know...That's exactly the song I thought of too when I first heard the name. Very, very good bobbymike. Very good. Ok, I have to add to it.

Sing with me now...

Are you going to Scarborough Shoal
CVNs, Virginias and Burkes.........
PRC Fisheries, no jurisdiction.
Remove the barrier or it may be mined.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/04/27/Will-Beijings-South-China-Sea-land-creation-lose-it-the-peace.aspx

I doubt China cares if it "loses the peace". It's getting everything it wants, and before much longer will be able to control the entire South China Sea. Other countries in the area can complain about claims, and the UN can huff and puff all it wants, and nothing will happen.

A couple of artificial islands in the middle of the South China Sea won't give China the capability to control the entire area. Rather these bases are a very poor capability. They can't move like an aircraft carrier and they lack the defensive depth of an actual (natural) land base. The only way to make them remotely worthwhile in a shooting war is to fortify the crap out of them. Which is going to require an awful lot of steel and concrete rather than just dredging up sand from the seabed. Until this happens these are just patrol bases and coast guard depots. China still remains constrained by its geography.

 

[fredymac]

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/04/27/Will-Beijings-South-China-Sea-land-creation-lose-it-the-peace.aspx

I doubt China cares if it "loses the peace". It's getting everything it wants, and before much longer will be able to control the entire South China Sea. Other countries in the area can complain about claims, and the UN can huff and puff all it wants, and nothing will happen.

A couple of artificial islands in the middle of the South China Sea won't give China the capability to control the entire area. Rather these bases are a very poor capability. They can't move like an aircraft carrier and they lack the defensive depth of an actual (natural) land base. The only way to make them remotely worthwhile in a shooting war is to fortify the crap out of them. Which is going to require an awful lot of steel and concrete rather than just dredging up sand from the seabed. Until this happens these are just patrol bases and coast guard depots. China still remains constrained by its geography.

Well yes but: Sun Tzu says, “Make your enemy surrender without physical fighting. ... " It may not take too much steel and concrete to intimidate. Plus the only ones permanently in the way are Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. The US comes and goes with the political winds. Maybe a passing Typhoon can make the problem go away.

 

[sferrin]

http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/04/27/Will-Beijings-South-China-Sea-land-creation-lose-it-the-peace.aspx

I doubt China cares if it "loses the peace". It's getting everything it wants, and before much longer will be able to control the entire South China Sea. Other countries in the area can complain about claims, and the UN can huff and puff all it wants, and nothing will happen.

A couple of artificial islands in the middle of the South China Sea won't give China the capability to control the entire area. Rather these bases are a very poor capability. They can't move like an aircraft carrier and they lack the defensive depth of an actual (natural) land base. The only way to make them remotely worthwhile in a shooting war is to fortify the crap out of them. Which is going to require an awful lot of steel and concrete rather than just dredging up sand from the seabed. Until this happens these are just patrol bases and coast guard depots. China still remains constrained by its geography.

Think of them as seven brand new "lilly pads". They'll be defended, and with S-400s that effectively puts a 450 mile dia. "red dot" around them. Ship attack aircraft, such as Tu-16s, will be able to operate out of them, considerably increasing their reach. Patrols boats as well. Nothing would prevent them from forward deploying conventional ballistic or cruise missiles on them either. I'd say they significantly increases their ability to exert coercive influence over the area. And I'd be astonished if this weren't but just the first wave of island building. Now they know nobody will do anything about it they really have no reason to pretend restraint.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

Think of them as seven brand new "lilly pads". They'll be defended, and with S-400s that effectively puts a 450 mile dia. "red dot" around them. Ship attack aircraft, such as Tu-16s, will be able to operate out of them, considerably increasing their reach. Patrols boats as well. Nothing would prevent them from forward deploying conventional ballistic or cruise missiles on them either. I'd say they significantly increases their ability to exert coercive influence over the area. And I'd be astonished if this weren't but just the first wave of island building. Now they know nobody will do anything about it they really have no reason to pretend restraint.

A lilly pad or any other base is pretty useless as such if its fuel dumps are burning wrecks and its tarmac is cratered. And the GROWLER (S-400) does not put a 450 mile diameter no go zone around its battery location. Just like the GUIDELINE (S-75) did not erect a 30 mile diameter do not cross line.