The Part of Post 45 quoted in Post 55.
We know from many discussions on this site that TSR2, P1154 and HS681 were too flawed to be saved.
However, as other alt histories here have warped reality happily, I am going to keep them, with slight changes to reality.
HS681 is built with a straightforward Medway turbofan and reference to VSTOL is dropped (Italy did this with the G222).
P1154 is changed to STOL vectored thrust based on BS100 and in service date of 1969 is accepted.
TSR2 is already flying but BAC are still unable to fix costs on the aircraft. With the early demise of the Valiant and the clear obsolescence of the Canberra, Defence Secretary Carrington forces the RAF to accept a mix of Buccaneer S2 and a reduced TSR2 buy of 50 aircraft. Vulcan and Victor aircraft will retire early to pay for them.
Carrington has already been critical of the RN ambitions for CVA01. He sees through the F4 Hermes saga and tells the RN it must accept USN F4s and cancels the Spey variant.
By 1966 Carrington has had the CVA01 redesigned to be an updated version of Eagle with no CF299 and Broomstick but with the CVA01 flight deck.
This was going to be the second half of Post 55 but real life got in the way and it's been semi-ninja'd by @Hood's Post 56.
The following figures might not be 100% accurate and my argument doesn't include all the
"ifs" &
"buts" but both are close enough to the whole truth to prove my point.
The Conservative's plan in 1964 was to maintain defence spending at current levels and the projected spending for 1970 was £2,400 at 1964 prices.
The Labour Government came to power promising to reduce defence spending. Their target of £2,000 million in 1970 at 1964 prices. However, they also promised to do so without cutting any of the UK's defence commitments. Their expressed intention was do it cheaper than the Tories.
To give Harold Wilson & Co their due that's what tried to do until until 1967-68 when the economic situation (which was exacerbated by events beyond their control) forced them to announce the withdraw from
"East of Suez" first by 1975 and then by the end of 1971.
That's why we had the cancellation of HS.681, P.1154 and TSR.2. Dennis Healey thought AFVG, C-130K Hercules, F-4M Phantom, F-111K, Harrier and Jaguar would be cheaper. The
"Island Base" beat the
"Strike Carriers" because the estimated cost of the former was less than £2,000 million and the estimated cost of the latter was more than £2,000 million.
My guess is that if the Conservatives had won the 1964 General Election their policy would have been to stick to their expressed plan of £2,400 million in 1970 at 1964 prices until 1967-68.
Therefore, the cancellations of 1964-66 in the
"Real World" would have been put back to 1967-70 in
@uk 75's
"Version of History". Except that the numbers of HS.681, P.1154 and TSR.2 built would have been reduced because the projects would have been too far advanced to be cancelled outright.
The
"Strike Carriers" will beat the
"Island Base" concept because the cost estimates for the former were within the £2,400 million ceiling in spite of being more expensive than the
"Island Base" concept. Or at least they do for long enough for CVA.01 and CVA.02 to survive for long enough to avoid being scrapped on the slipways. However, they have to make do with a Type 965 AKE-2 radar instead of Type 988 and be
"fitted for but not with" Sea Dart. These ships replace Ark Royal, Hermes and Victorious (I know that's two ships replacing three). If the Conservatives with the 1970 General Election CVA.03 will be built to replace Eagle. The cost of CVAs 01, 02 and 03 will in part be offset by not
"Phantomizing" Ark Royal, not converting Blake and Tiger to Helicopter Carriers and not building Invincible.
I've not included the other Invincible class "Through Deck Cruisers" because they were ordered after 1974 and my
"Wishful Thinking" is that two or three Commando Carriers would be built in their place.
At the very least the fifth Polaris submarine would have been built.