XAC Y-20 Kunpeng

[Deino]

Back to topic !

Happy anniversary … 1. Birthday for the Y-20 and first clear images of the second flying prototype ! (source: via Top-81.Forum)

... and for the last one, I couldn't resist !

 

[Deino]

HS it flown with wheels and flaps retracted yet?

Yeppp !!!

 

[Deino]

Hmmm ... either under this Il-76 spotted at the CFTE are 4x WS-20 or all D-30 engine cowlings are open !??

 

[flateric]

"or"

 

[sferrin]

I have a pic somewhere of an IL-76 with a UHB nacelle from years ago. Maybe this one has four of them? ???

 

[flateric]

no way it could have four NK-93s

 

[Deino]

My idea was simply - since spotted at the CFTE - that these are indeed 4 WS-20 (we all know with one that Il-76 is flying since some time) or these calmshell-doors of the standard engines are open !

 

[Deino]

Second (or actually third) aircraft now in a light grey colour scheme and CFTE number & the first clearer Image of the WS-20 testbed.

 

[Grey Havoc]

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?240068

 

[hesham]

Second (or actually third) aircraft now in a light grey colour scheme and CFTE number & the first clearer Image of the WS-20 testbed.

Very nice shots my dear Deino.

 

[Deino]

Unconfirmed ... but maybe the third flying prototype (so far 20001 = CFTE 781 (dark grey) & 20003 = 783 (light grey)) !

 

[archipeppe]

A strange beast indoubtely, this is what you get when you try to merge an Iliyushin Il-76 with a Boeing C-17....

 

[T-50]

its not just a copy of the C-17 if you look very carefull there are a lot of differences like the nose body shape etc etc only the lay out is very similar too the C-17 (and the much older IL-74 Candid)
Its correct that the Y-20 uses the same engines like its Russian counterpart,but China is working on new engines for the Y-20 only the protypes are using the Russian engines

 

[Deino]

Arrived today at Zhuhai !

 

[Deino]

An image we surely won't see that often !

 

[ov-101]

Are you going to write something about Y-20 and J-31 for Combat Aircraft or other aviation magazine?

 

[Deino]

Yes, I will do the show report for CA !

 

[kaiserbill]

Some further pics from MilPhotos over the last day or so from Zuhai.

 

[Deino]

Test of the new WS-20 ....

 

[Deino]

Test of the new WS-20 ....

... another one !

 

[Deino]

Again me and adding more news in regard to the Y-20 project:


Following reports from the Chinese media as well as different forums, the Xi’an Y-20 was spotted over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in late June during high-altitude tests. Within one week the second flying prototype ‘783’ was spotted at four different high-altitude airports namely Lijiang Airport (2251m above sea level), Diqing Shangri-La Airport (3280m above sea level), Daocheng Yading Airport (also known as Aden Daocheng) and Inagi Aden Airport (4411m above sea level).

Preceding these tests, the Y-20 was also spotted in January conducting cold-weather trials at the Hulunbuir Hailar Airport (also known as Hailar Dongshan) at the Inner Mongolia.

Following reports by Tang Changhong, the chief designer of the Y-20, the aircraft will complete all tests in different climatic conditions by the end of the year.

Even more important, two more prototypes made their maiden flights: Aircraft no. 5 on 2. July and aircraft no. 6 on 13. July.


Deino

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

Seems to be a high priority program.

 

[Deino]

Seems to be a high priority program.

Yes indeed ... if You compare how many ARJ-21 have been build in a much longer timeframe !


Deino

 

[hs1216]

Possibly reflecting China's desire to develop the ability to project force?

 

[FighterJock]

Has there been any potential export interest about the Y-20?

 

[totoro]

None so far, as far as i know. and there likely won't be any until a domestic engine option is ready, as i'm sure the russians won't be supplying engines for export customers thus hurting their potential il-476 sales.

 

[Deino]

Small update or better to say correction: it seems as if the first flight of no. 6 on 13. July was a false report (maybe another flight of aircraft no. 5 that day).

Deino

 

[Deino]

Small update or better to say correction: it seems as if the first flight of no. 6 on 13. July was a false report (maybe another flight of aircraft no. 5 that day).

Deino

Anyway ... here's finally no. 05 (785) and also the no. 06 (786) !

Deino

 

[FighterJock]

Small update or better to say correction: it seems as if the first flight of no. 6 on 13. July was a false report (maybe another flight of aircraft no. 5 that day).

Deino

Anyway ... here's finally no. 05 (785) and also the no. 06 (786) !

Deino

So how many Y-20 prototypes are they planning to fly?

 

[Deino]

Small update or better to say correction: it seems as if the first flight of no. 6 on 13. July was a false report (maybe another flight of aircraft no. 5 that day).

Deino

Anyway ... here's finally no. 05 (785) and also the no. 06 (786) !

Deino

Hmmm ... seems as if '786' was indeed '788' !

 

[Deino]

there were indeed two yellow Y-20s at XAC in late December ....

 

[Deino]

... and now also 789 ... and here are three Y-20s at XAC !

 

[sferrin]

China buying 1,000+ Y-20 transports.

"The domestically developed Y-20 heavy-lifting transport plane will soon be delivered to buyers, a project manager said on Thursday. The manager expects that China will need at least 1,000 of the huge aircraft.

"I can't tell you the exact time planned for delivery, but ... it will be carried out very soon," Zhu Qian, head of Aviation Industry Corp of China's Large Aircraft Development Office, said at a technology exhibition in Beijing.

"More than 1,000 Y-20s will be needed," he said, adding that the figure was calculated based on the experience of the United States and Russia. Both countries have used heavy-lifting transport aircraft for years.
"

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/174388/deliveries-of-china%E2%80%99s-y_20-military-transport-to-begin-soon.html


Peaceful rise, etc.

 

[yasotay]

one thousand? With three zeros? That's a lot of blue light specials at WalMart. :

 

[AeroFranz]

The US has what? 230-ish C-17s and less than 50 C-5 of which only some are Ms?
1,000 seems like a BIG number. Maybe the manufacturer throws in a T-shirt and cap after the first 1,000! ;D

 

[kaiserd]

Re: China buying 1,000+ Y-20 transports.

"The domestically developed Y-20 heavy-lifting transport plane will soon be delivered to buyers, a project manager said on Thursday. The manager expects that China will need at least 1,000 of the huge aircraft.

"I can't tell you the exact time planned for delivery, but ... it will be carried out very soon," Zhu Qian, head of Aviation Industry Corp of China's Large Aircraft Development Office, said at a technology exhibition in Beijing.

"More than 1,000 Y-20s will be needed," he said, adding that the figure was calculated based on the experience of the United States and Russia. Both countries have used heavy-lifting transport aircraft for years.
"

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/174388/deliveries-of-china%E2%80%99s-y_20-military-transport-to-begin-soon.html


Peaceful rise, etc.

And no representatives of an airplane manufacturer has ever bull-shitted in a press conference or press release in their entire lives

If China really buys 1,000 heavy airlifters it will be a peaceful rise - they won't be able to afford anything else....

Y-20: our new basic trainer
Y-20: our new fighter-bomber
Y-20: our new recon UAV
Etc......

 

[totoro]

Manager said China needs 1000 airframes.
1. He probably meant both Military and Civilian.
2. It's his wishful thinking based on (reliable or not) future market research.
3. He may've meant airframes produced over the lifespan of the project. So 40+ years?

While I'd agree 1000 airframes is too many, I do believe Y20 could, within a few decades, go over 500 airframes for China alone.
Why? US had a purely military need for transport planes and it produced and operated roughly 280 c141 and 130 c5 during the second half of 60s and throughout the Cold war. Now, after the Cold war, it still operates 220 c17 and 70 c5.

That's combined tonnage 24,800 tons for Cold war fleet and 25,400 tons for current fleet.

USSR, when it dissolved, had a lot of il76 and an124, though a large portion was for civilian use. I suspect reasons for that may be vast wilderness of USSR territory, its size and lack of built roads and railroads. Almost 900 transport variant il76 were produced and as best as i could find, not more than 150 airframes ended up outside USSR during the Cold war. That'd mean 700-750 il76 and some 50 an124 produced and operated until end of Cold war.

Total tonnage would be some 38,000 tons. How much of that went to civilian use - I've no idea.

But a y-20 fleet with payload tonnage of 20,000 tons would number some 300 airframes. While *current* PLA doesn't seem to need that many, who's to say PLA 20 years from now won't want such numbers? Also, tanker and other variants might come on top of these numbers. And civilian/commercial use within China may still be needed. Probably not in the huge numbers USSR needed it, but who's to say another 100+ airframes won't be operated commercially where infrastructure is lacking?

All in all, past year 2050 i could very well see 500+ Y20 aiframes being sold within China.

 

[Michel Van]

The Article say for Military AND civilian use and that will include Export to !

let see what other have build
USSR-Russian they got Ilyushin Il-76 build 980 units - 38 nations use Civilian and Military
USSR-Ukraine got Antonov An-12 build 1248 units - 21 Nations for Civilian use, 42 nations for Military use only.
USA Boeing C-17 build 279 units - 8 Nations and one alliance use them for Military only.

Allot of user of Ilyushin Il-76 or Antonov An-12 will look for new cargo planes
but Antonov got production problems, Ilyushin undergoes merger and become "United Aircraft Corporation"
Boeing stop the production of C-17 in 2015
Airbus A400M, eeh let's not talk about that fiasco...

seems if Xi'an Aircraft Industrial Corporation play it right, they will sell 1000 Y-20 worldwide !

 

[kaiserd]

The Article say for Military AND civilian use and that will include Export to !

let see what other have build
USSR-Russian they got Ilyushin Il-76 build 980 units - 38 nations use Civilian and Military
USSR-Ukraine got Antonov An-12 build 1248 units - 21 Nations for Civilian use, 42 nations for Military use only.
USA Boeing C-17 build 279 units - 8 Nations and one alliance use them for Military only.

Allot of user of Ilyushin Il-76 or Antonov An-12 will look for new cargo planes
but Antonov got production problems, Ilyushin undergoes merger and become "United Aircraft Corporation"
Boeing stop the production of C-17 in 2015
Airbus A400M, eeh let's not talk about that fiasco...

seems if Xi'an Aircraft Industrial Corporation play it right, they will sell 1000 Y-20 worldwide !

And of countries currently operating heavy long range airlifters how many would/ could buy a Chinese aircraft? Which countries do you foresee having a new requirement for this class of airlifter? Which specific countries would you foresee actually buying the Y-20?
Established Chinese aerospace customers like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mymar, Nigeria etc are at best only likely to want/need/afford tiny numbers of such an aircraft (if at all).

 

[totoro]

Y-20 in its current form, with d30 engines, is superior to classic il76, but then again - no one is buying old il76. People can buy new il76 with ps90 engines which is probably better fuel consumption wise, comparable weight of payload wise and somewhat worse volume of payload wise and probably cheaper. So in the end it again might be more attractive solution to a lot of prospective buyers who already have infrastructure geared towards old il76.

Now if Y20 with new engines (within several years?) were to compare with new il76, that might be a different thing. Only the initial pricetag may be on side of il76. With ever growing chinese economy and rising sphere of political influence, i could very well see ex il76 operators going for y20 within 5-10 years. Russians will probably be making a completely new plane to replace il76 but it might take awhile. But even so, ex il76 market is probably not going to stay pro-russian but divided between two countries.

That being said, i still don't see that whole market needing much more than a 100 airframes during the next few decades.