XAC Y-20 Kunpeng

[Deino]

No, he's just phrasing it in a way that makes it sound like people expected Y-20Bs at that air base in January this year for some reason. There has been no such expectation.

Well, yes and no ... I think anyone with an interesting in bases, units and new equipment never expected Y-20Bs at this base - aka the 13th TD, 37th AR at Kaifeng - but since the first production Y-20B allegedly flew first in November 2022 and we've seen already grey ones (maybe with serial numbers and as such no longer prototypes) in March 2023, at least I would have expected to see some at another base by late 2023 / early 2024.

So far however there is no hint, which other unit may have got them and there are not that many options.

 

[Blitzo]

Well, yes and no ... I think anyone with an interesting in bases, units and new equipment never expected Y-20Bs at this base - aka the 13th TD, 37th AR at Kaifeng - but since the first production Y-20B allegedly flew first in November 2022 and we've seen already grey ones (maybe with serial numbers and as such no longer prototypes) in March 2023, at least I would have expected to see some at another base by late 2023 / early 2024.

So far however there is no hint, which other unit may have got them and there are not that many options.

My view is that:
1. There was no particular reason to expect Y-20Bs at this specific base, by that particular time when the satellite image was taken
2. There are probably Y-20Bs already in service but we just don't have images of it because they keep things close to their chest, and unless you have the satellite imagery resources of a great power tasked to actively finding them, you probably won't be able to luckily spot one by chance at this stage

All of which is to say there's nothing about Y-20B or WS-20s status that can be inferred from that picture.

 

[Acatomic]

Photo of Y-20BE model made in January.
Since version B is being offered for export I guess all that talk about WS-20 was simple FUD?

 

[Acatomic]

@Deino
Any information about the cargo size Y-20 can fit in?

 

[Deino]

@Deino
Any information about the cargo size Y-20 can fit in?

The best guess I have is this ...

 

[siegecrossbow]

Refueler with WS-20 engines.

 

[Deino]

View attachment 738029

Refueler with WS-20 engines.

 

[siegecrossbow]

View attachment 738198

Missing an engine?

 

[Titus]

Missing an engine?

Inner port engine is hiding behind the port side fuselage. Apparent empty engine pylon is AAR pod. Like the Candid, Chubby Girls engines are mounted well inboard.

 

[totoro]

@Deino
Any information about the cargo size Y-20 can fit in?

There are various images around which help sizing the cargo bay. length is fairly easy to estimate, but cargo floor width is harder. Though this image

suggests it could/should be around 4.2 meters wide, judging by the width of the ramp. Ramp edges themselves are 4.5 m.
When I use ramp to landing gear position ratio, and then size up the landing gear position to a measurable value like wingspan (as measured via google earth) then I get even more, closer to 4.7 m. But as one can imagine, doing measurements that way is bound to involve some inaccuracies.
I googled average pallet width in china and got 1200mm. Measuring to that i got 4.5 meters.
For the 4.5 meters to be possible, the guy in the picture would have to be 1.78 tall, which is also fairly believable. (2021 report said that 19 year old male average height was 176 cm) Once again, that's ramp edges.
All that taking into consideration, the part of the ramp that actually seems to be useable width is some 93.5% of the total ramp width, getting me from 4.5 meters to 4.21 meters.

 

[Acatomic]