Washington DC air collision (January 2025)

[Scott Kenny]

I know it is now a popular assertion but I personally don't see much bank angle in all the video available to the public. Approach trajectory, as seen in the landing chart (see above), is a straight (hence flat) approach above the Potomac.

This is why I have suggested the CRJ was below the glide slope, with a nose up, that would explain they didn't see the helo Nav and strobe lights.

You're the one who posted the ADSB tracks on 30 Jan, which show the CRJ flying east of the river (course more or less due north) and then turning left to line up with Runway 33.

Sat view with trajectory:

Southbound: Blackhawk
Northbound: CRJ

Also, assuming an impact at 350ft as per black boxes, they'd be dead on the glideslope at 1nmi from landing point. But I have a severe problem with that altitude claim.


Why? Well, runway 33 is physically 7200ft/1.185nmi long. Take the length of the runway in your satellite view, and measure that distance extending out down the runway centerline. 1nmi from the end of the runway is over the land on the east shore. The helo track does not jive with that at all!

The wreckage landed at 4000ft from touchdown point (where the glideslope lines up), 3000ft/0.5nmi from the end of the runway. 4000ft from touchdown point, the landing plane should be at 210ft to be square on glideslope.

I really wish we had a view looking due south down the river from more or less that point at the confluence, to see how quickly the wreckage fell. I mean you have a 20,00lb helicopter impacting a 65,000lb CRJ710, at more or less equal speeds (Blackhawks can cruise at 150knots, CRJ landing speed is going to be about 140knots, but they're impacting at about a 45deg angle.)

 

[TomcatViP]

New NOTAM severely restricts traffic above the Potomac until the end of March.

5/9909 NOTAM Details

Expect significant intermittent delays at Reagan airport. (every time a gov helo will be around, it seems arrival and departures will be on hold...).

 

[Scott Kenny]

Expect significant intermittent delays at Reagan airport. (every time a gov helo will be around, it seems arrival and departures will be on hold...).

Ew.

I suppose that is going to remain in place until they figure out how exactly this happened, and then until they figure out how to properly deconflict the Helo Routes from the landing patterns. My vote would be to move Route 4 to directly over the top of the divided highway east of the river.

 

[TomS]

New NOTAM severely restricts traffic above the Potomac until the end of March.

5/9909 NOTAM Details

Expect significant intermittent delays at Reagan airport. (every time a gov helo will be around, it seems arrival and departures will be on hold...).

What this actually does is mostly close the airspace along the Potomac to helicopters, with some very limited exceptions. I expect the Presidential flights will be routing other directions anyway, and this seems to block almost all other helo flights. It's going to take some very pressing life safety concerns to let a helo into those areas for the time being.

 

[Scott Kenny]

What this actually does is mostly close the airspace along the Potomac to helicopters, with some very limited exceptions. I expect the Presidential flights will be routing other directions anyway, and this seems to block almost all other helo flights. It's going to take some very pressing life safety concerns to let a helo into those areas for the time being.

So probably medevac-only, and "stay ON the river. Turn your landing lights on and fly so close to the water you can see the reflection of your landing light on the rotor blades!"

 

[Halcyon66]

Key safety system off in Army helicopter that collided with American Airlines jet, senator says

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -A key safety system was turned off on the U.S. Army helicopter that collided with an American Airlines regional jet last week near Washington's Reagan Airport, killing 67. Senate Commerce Committee chair Ted Cruz told reporters the Black Hawk helicopter had turned off its...

www.yahoo.com

Regards,

 

[edwest4]

'Major' wreckage from Black Hawk helicopter and plane collision pulled from the Potomac

The recovered pieces were moved to “a secure airport facility for further examination and documentation,” the National Transportation Safety Board said.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Scott Kenny]

Key safety system off in Army helicopter that collided with American Airlines jet, senator says

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -A key safety system was turned off on the U.S. Army helicopter that collided with an American Airlines regional jet last week near Washington's Reagan Airport, killing 67. Senate Commerce Committee chair Ted Cruz told reporters the Black Hawk helicopter had turned off its...

www.yahoo.com

Regards,

How freaking dark does Duffy think it is at 9pm in January?!?

As per this site: https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/washington-dc

On 29 January 2025:
Sunrise was at 7:16am
Sunset was at 5:26pm

This crash happened roughly 3.5 hours after sunset! Of course the helo pilots are wearing NODS!!!! [ 3.2TB of profanity questioning Duffy's parentage, education, and intelligence deleted ]

 

[GTX]

Some useful, practical commentary from pilots here:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=und31t3H6JI

 

[Scott Kenny]

You could not pay me enough to fly GA anywhere near DC! Sneeze wrong and you just broke a major No-Fly-Zone...

Army flying 140hrs a year?!? Even active Army? Guard/Reserve is "one weekend a month, and two weeks a year." Ignoring the two weeks a year, that makes ~11 weekends a year since there's no drill during the month Annual Training happens. Let's call it ~10 hours a weekend, and then the other ~30 hours happen in Annual Training. That's still assuming 3 flights of ~3 hours each day of a weekend, though.

I'm still amazed there hasn't been a midair between helos and aircraft landing on Runway 33 before now. Those routes are way too freaking close to the glideslope!

 

[edwest4]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLqp1ZDVT7Q

 

[Halcyon66]

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/06/us/dc-midair-collision-investigation-thursday-hnk/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc

Regards,

 

[Archibald]

Tammy Duckworth

She is such a badass, that one.

 

[TomcatViP]

NTSB latest briefing: bad com, NVG, wrong set of data from pressure altitude (QNH? ) and CRJ perhaps a bit lower than expected:

Black Hawk crew in DC crash may have missed key air traffic messages

The Black Hawk that collided with an American Airlines jet in January may not have had accurate altitude readings, investigators said.

www.defensenews.com

Notice radar alt value at collision: 278ft.

 

[Scott Kenny]

NTSB latest briefing: bad com, NVG, wrong set of data from pressure altitude (QNH? ) and CRJ perhaps a bit lower than expected:

Black Hawk crew in DC crash may have missed key air traffic messages

The Black Hawk that collided with an American Airlines jet in January may not have had accurate altitude readings, investigators said.

www.defensenews.com

Notice radar alt value at collision: 278ft.

I ran across a claim that the radar altimeter may be +-100ft over water and so is considered inaccurate, and by impact position the helo was over water.

 

[TomcatViP]

I have never heard such.

Ex. Of accuracy level: ( Honeywell KRA-405B)

Key Benefits:​

• Frequency: 4.2 GHz to 4.4 GHz
• Operating range: 0 to +2500 feet
• Accuracy: ± 3 ft or ±3%, < 500ft. ±5%, >500ft.
• Analog and digital outputs

 

[NMaude]

I ran across a claim that the radar altimeter may be +-100ft over water and so is considered inaccurate

I find that to be very surprising as modern electronic tech should be a lot more accurate than that plus a radio-altimeter with that error range is useless for low altitude use.

 

[Grey Havoc]

COTS strikes yet again?

 

[Halcyon66]

Trump administration firing hundreds of FAA employees despite four deadly crashes in four weeks

President moves to cut Federal Aviation Administration workforce, including safety workers, as critics say public could be endangered

www.theguardian.com

Trump begins firings of FAA air traffic control staff just weeks after fatal DC plane crash

The Trump administration has begun firing several hundred Federal Aviation Administration employees, upending staff on a busy air travel weekend and just weeks after a fatal mid-air collision in Washington.

apnews.com

Bit of a worry............

Regards,

 

[NMaude]

Trump administration firing hundreds of FAA employees despite four deadly crashes in four weeks

President moves to cut Federal Aviation Administration workforce, including safety workers, as critics say public could be endangered

www.theguardian.com

Trump begins firings of FAA air traffic control staff just weeks after fatal DC plane crash

The Trump administration has begun firing several hundred Federal Aviation Administration employees, upending staff on a busy air travel weekend and just weeks after a fatal mid-air collision in Washington.

apnews.com

Bit of a worry............

Regards,

This decision WILL come back to bite the Trump administration very publicly if not reversed soon.

 

[Halcyon66]

A team from SpaceX is being brought in to overhaul FAA’s air traffic control system

Staff shortages are about to get even worse.

www.theverge.com

https://www.fastcompany.com/91280190/elon-musk-says-spacex-team-will-review-faa-air-traffic-control-systems

Don't worry everything will be ok...............................not.

This has disaster written all over it.

Regards,

 

[publiusr]

Well, Elon can bingo an A-380 size rocket between chopsticks...still, the last thing we need to do is to lay-off air traffic controllers. These aren't garbage men.

 

[TomS]

Well, Elon can bingo an A-380 size rocket between chopsticks...still, the last thing we need to do is to lay-off air traffic controllers. These aren't garbage men.

They didn't lay off controllers, just the folks who maintain the systems controllers use.

These idiots have decided to cut headcount by firing every single "probationary" employee they can. Some of those folks are truly new hires (many of whom are desperately needed) but a fair number are mid-career folks who just got a promotion. Instead of preparing for the future, DOGE is eating the seed corn.

 

[Moose]

Well, Elon can bingo an A-380 size rocket between chopsticks...still, the last thing we need to do is to lay-off air traffic controllers. These aren't garbage men.

It took a few attempts to land an F9, and Starship benefitted from F9's lessons but still needed time to get onto the tower. All quite valid for unscrewed launch vehicles, I doubt people are going to be thrilled with him implementing a new ATC system with a "we'll get it right eventually" mindset.

 

[Halcyon66]

I doubt people are going to be thrilled with him implementing a new ATC system with a "we'll get it right eventually" mindset.

And risking ~300 people a time.

Regards,

 

[Scott Kenny]

I find that to be very surprising as modern electronic tech should be a lot more accurate than that plus a radio-altimeter with that error range is useless for low altitude use.

Key word in that is OVER WATER.

Apparently works just fine over land.

 

[publiusr]

Elon Musk--the Jack Welch of government.

 

[NMaude]

Elon Musk--the Jack Welch of government.

Are you referring to his legacy?

 

[starviking]

A team from SpaceX is being brought in to overhaul FAA’s air traffic control system

Staff shortages are about to get even worse.

www.theverge.com

https://www.fastcompany.com/91280190/elon-musk-says-spacex-team-will-review-faa-air-traffic-control-systems

Don't worry everything will be ok...............................not.

This has disaster written all over it.

Regards,

These are the people who don’t know that COBOL defaults to 1875-05-02 for incorrect or empty date spaces, or the operating principles of MySQL databases…

Doomed!

 

[starviking]

They didn't lay off controllers, just the folks who maintain the systems controllers use.

These idiots have decided to cut headcount by firing every single "probationary" employee they can. Some of those folks are truly new hires (many of whom are desperately needed) but a fair number are mid-career folks who just got a promotion. Instead of preparing for the future, DOGE is eating the seed corn.

Par for the course. In his last administration, IIRC, two rules had to be removed for one new federal rule. The international CDC disease outbreak monitoring was also cut back - that didn’t work so well in China…

 

[aim9xray]

Are you referring to his legacy?

Wikipdedia: "Welch has been described as "perhaps the most celebrated American boss of recent decades".[80]Yet by Wall Street measures, a $100,000 investment in GE shares in the year 2000 (near the end of Welch's tenure) had lost about 80 percent of its value as of the year 2021.[81]"

Intel is next. Boeing? Maybe.

 

[publiusr]

Are you referring to his legacy?

Sadly--he's turning into a Proxmire.

He of all people should know--with him shelling out big money for hardware rich development--that bean counters can ruin things.

Both businessmen and Greens look at their fellow man as a problem, instead of a resource.

I remember when space advocates celebrated how many folks NASA employed--the great things it could do with proper funding.

Now, discourse has been poisoned to where spin-offs--and how many lives a program touches--is considered a bad thing.

I am worried that--for all the good he has done and the innovations his leadership has yielded--he may wind up tainting aerospace worse than Von Braun did-after all-Nordhausen would simply have made more shells in the place of V-2 cores had he and his practiced self-immolation as a protest.

Gerald Bull had the opposite trajectory--not going into the light, but looking for backers because he felt left high and dry. Bezos' billions were spent on the down-low--or went to baubles for Bubbles.

Elon really should have stayed out of government. Even if he is successful at removing real waste--that itself may cause other projects he favors to be cut once the pendulum swings the other way. And it will.

My nightmare is that he kills "old(aero)space" only for a political flip to occur and New(aero)space gets the axe out of pure spite.

It might not just be MSFC that winds up looking like Buran's facilities. Ironically--it may have been Keith Cowing who vilified my state to no end that helped Elon and his come into power.

I hope people remember that.

At least no one can say Mike Griffin laid off half the people in the country.

 

[aim9xray]

These are the people who don’t know that COBOL defaults to 1875-05-02 for incorrect or empty date spaces, or the operating principles of MySQL databases…

Doomed!

So the script kiddie never heard of a MAGIC NUMBER?
Little Bobby Droptables strikes again!

 

[WatcherZero]

Key word in that is OVER WATER.

Apparently works just fine over land.

I saw a reference to the F-14 altimeter overestimating its height by 100ft over water citing NAVAIR 01-F14AAP-1, ch. 2.32.5 if someone wants to check it out. In general though modern radar altimeters don't have an issue over oceans but can be confused by rivers.

 

[Halcyon66]

In general though modern radar altimeters don't have an issue over oceans but can be confused by rivers.

Could that be a result of density, aka salt?

Regards,

 

[Scott Kenny]

Could that be a result of density, aka salt?

Not sure.

I'm going to pester the NAMP group on FB, see if anyone knows.

 

[Halcyon66]

There is a major divergence beginning at about 3 centimeters: sea water becomes nearly 100% reflective and pure water 64% reflective.

Page 5

https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/aaf62e66-62d4-497a-abcd-004e78336e92/content#:~:text=There%20is%20a%20major%20divergence,and%20pure%20water%2064%25%20reflective.

Could be something.

Regards,

 

[Arjen]

COBOL defaults to 1875-05-02 for incorrect or empty date spaces

That depends very much on which COBOL implementation you are using.

 

[Scott Kenny]

These are the people who don’t know that COBOL defaults to 1875-05-02 for incorrect or empty date spaces, or the operating principles of MySQL databases…

Doomed!

Of course, the fact that nobody went in and checked this crap before now is kinda telling.

I don't care that it's a default date, anyone over 100 (ie, anyone who didn't have a DOB in the database) should have been contacted to update.

 

[Moose]

Of course, the fact that nobody went in and checked this crap before now is kinda telling.

I don't care that it's a default date, anyone over 100 (ie, anyone who didn't have a DOB in the database) should have been contacted to update.

I have to state clearly that you, and he, are talking as if the numbers he posted are saying something which they very much do not. He claimed a bunch of numbers with bad dates was indicating fraud. That's incorrect and for the record it's not what Social Security fraud looks like. If it were that simple it would be nearly non-existent because a half-trained wombat could have found and flagged fraudulent activity all day.

What he was really seeing was a bunch of numbers assigned to people who have been dead since before the records were digitized. Nobody's gone back and corrected the dates on a bunch of people who've been dead for decades, because it would take time and money that was not made available for the task.