USAF/USN 6th Gen Fighters - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS News & Analysis

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zebra159357 said:
Has there been any incentive for NGAD to potentially have clients other than USAF ? Perhaps even if it was cleared for export, I assume it would be more attractive for Pacific allies(such as Australia), rather than Europe, given the requirements NGAD was spurred on.
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Australia seems to be the only good buyer for NGAD (or FAXX, for that matter, but with where the big airfields are NGAD would better serve Oz's situation).



jsport said:
longer range without airframe number increase provides less operational sorties, less firepower, higher mission failure rates, less Tactical opportunities.

Increase the range and sorties duration is like giving in day after day the initiative on the battle ground*.

The above can not be emphasized enough.

.. would argue strategic opportunities against centers of gravity rather than tactical or even operational level targets should be the emphasis of a NGAD ie a big bird w/large missiles.

"less operational sorties, less firepower, higher mission failure rates"

means that a complementing Penetrating/Persistent Counter-air (PCA) capability must afford significant AAM, Anti-radiation Msle, counter-airfield Msle magazines. Minus a multi-role new large stealth only an existing bomber can meet the (PCA) requirement.
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Unless you build a plane that is designed to efficiently cruise at Mach 2.
 
Oops, missed one:
bring_it_on said:
When is the F/A-XX needed?
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It's needed to replace Super Bugs as they run out of flight hours. I'm sure the exact numbers could be found if a person knew the correct questions to ask, but the last Super Bugs will be delivered in 2027 (as currently bought). Call it 20 years from there means the LAST F/A-XX needs to be delivered in about 2047. Might be able to stretch airframes another 5-10 years, IIRC the Blue Angels birds are ~20 years old when they arrive. So the last FAXX might be able to be delivered in 2057, if no wars happen that deplete the Super Hornet supply and the Navy thinks they can get away with running the Super Bugs that long.

As of end of 2023, the USN had 421 Super Bugs in service, with 76 more on order. And only 30 F-35Cs active with 204 on order (I was expecting more, but I guess the rest are USMC). So, ~500 FAXX assuming 1:1 replacement of Super Bugs. That said, the USN was also looking at replacing some aircraft with UCAVs, one of the proposed Carrier Air Wings was only a single squadron of FAXX, the rest of the strike planes were all UCAVs (3 squadrons). So that'd bring the total needed down to as few as 132 (12-plane squadron, 11 carriers in service), but I have a better feeling for keeping about twice that. 264-288, upper number for 12 carriers in service. Call it about 300 with the Blue Angels also rocking a squadron of FAXX.
 
bring_it_on said:
Potentially. But how many allies even in the Pacific can afford a $300+ Million NGAD? Japan is already a partner on GCAP so unlikely they'll buy a third type in addition to it and F-35A/B. Australia perhaps? But I can see them also buying GCAP down the road..
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I cannot imagine NGAD will be available for sale anyway; it likely will use very sensitive technology (if built). But I agree that cost also likely puts it out of reach of Australia and Japan even if it is made available. Also it likely makes little sense for Japan anyway; they are too close to exploit long range.
 
Scott Kenny said:
It's needed to replace Super Bugs as they run out of flight hours. I'm sure the exact numbers could be found if a person knew the correct questions to ask, but the last Super Bugs will be delivered in 2027 (as currently bought). Call it 20 years from there means the LAST F/A-XX needs to be delivered in about 2047. Might be able to stretch airframes another 5-10 years, IIRC the Blue Angels birds are ~20 years old when they arrive. So the last FAXX might be able to be delivered in 2057, if no wars happen that deplete the Super Hornet supply and the Navy thinks they can get away with running the Super Bugs that long.
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I think the solution would still be to double down on full kit installs on Block 2 SH's to get the additional 4,000 hours (15 years) and upgrades. With a mix of Block 1, 2's and Block 3 SH's, the former mix of block 1 and some block 2's would be what the F/A-XX begins replacing in the 2030s. I wouldn't be surprised if the F/A-XX production program is half or slightly more than half of the overall SH effort due to cost and other advancements in technologies leading to more unmanned component in the air wing. My overall point is that the Navy has options of the table..from adding more aircraft to the SLM and funding that effort better to increasing F-35C buys. Both of these can be used to hedge against F/A-XX delays.

We will know more about F/A-XX timelines if the Navy moves forward on the program later this year. But if they begin buying aircraft towards the end of the decade, and hope to have it operational early-mid next decade, then we can realistically expect about 180-200 in hand or on order by 2040..or about 1/3 of the SH fleet currently operational. Another 250 to 300 or so SH's would have gone through the 10,000 hour SLM process by then.
 
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Josh_TN said:
I cannot imagine NGAD will be available for sale anyway; it likely will use very sensitive technology (if built). But I agree that cost also likely puts it out of reach of Australia and Japan even if it is made available. Also it likely makes little sense for Japan anyway; they are too close to exploit long range.
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Good point on NGAD's export restrictions. It'll be interesting to see what develops in the future for UCAV-controlling tactical C2 nodes, especially for countries like Japan & Australia. I imagine UCAV development & production will outpace manned fighters, and fielding a manned fighter that can keep up with the UCAVs won't be a fiscally responsible decision for them. Maybe they'll offload UCAV C2 to AEW&C type aircraft.
 
'More than a pound for ground' as the F/A-XX. A form factor like the proposed NG ATA is the only strategic bomber which can justify the "overhead baggage", a very vulnerable, for the cost, mobile airfield entails, especially when the Pacific and for that matter the world is full of airfields. 1741654760520.png
 
Josh_TN said:
I cannot imagine NGAD will be available for sale anyway; it likely will use very sensitive technology (if built). But I agree that cost also likely puts it out of reach of Australia and Japan even if it is made available. Also it likely makes little sense for Japan anyway; they are too close to exploit long range.
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While Japan wants loiter time (=range), they're doing GCAP instead of NGAD. Learned their lesson after being denied F-22s.

Oz and I guess Canada are the two nations that would most greatly benefit from NGAD's range. I can't see anyone else wanting a 3000nmi combat range aircraft.
 
bring_it_on said:
I think the solution would still be to double down on full kit installs on Block 2 SH's to get the additional 4,000 hours (15 years) and upgrades. With a mix of Block 1, 2's and Block 3 SH's, the former mix of block 1 and some block 2's would be what the F/A-XX begins replacing in the 2030s. I wouldn't be surprised if the F/A-XX production program is half or slightly more than half of the overall SH effort due to cost and other advancements in technologies leading to more unmanned component in the air wing. My overall point is that the Navy has options of the table..from adding more aircraft to the SLM and funding that effort better to increasing F-35C buys. Both of these can be used to hedge against F/A-XX delays.

We will know more about F/A-XX timelines if the Navy moves forward on the program later this year. But if they begin buying aircraft towards the end of the decade, and hope to have it operational early-mid next decade, then we can realistically expect about 180-200 in hand or on order by 2040..or about 1/3 of the SH fleet currently operational. Another 250 to 300 or so SH's would have gone through the 10,000 hour SLM process by then.
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Agreed. Though I still think we're going to see closer to 300x FAXX in the fleet, just because the Navy is hedging against UCAVs.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Agreed. Though I still think we're going to see closer to 300x FAXX in the fleet, just because the Navy is hedging against UCAVs.
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Also while the USN may want more UCAVs, it seems unlikely they will be large strike capacity machines, at least initially. I suspect they will be counter air and EW platforms mostly, just because those missions do not require much payload. If you want a high payload UAV, you are probably going to pay manned fighter like prices. That is not an attritable asset.
 
Josh_TN said:
Also while the USN may want more UCAVs, it seems unlikely they will be large strike capacity machines, at least initially. I suspect they will be counter air and EW platforms mostly, just because those missions do not require much payload. If you want a high payload UAV, you are probably going to pay manned fighter like prices. That is not an attritable asset.
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Very true.

And I suspect that the FAXX size is really close to the point where there's no real performance gain for going unmanned. We know that the B21 is definitely above that size.
 
F/A-XX is going to be supersonic. When you have a payload and size limit due to Navy's requirements the choice of manned becomes clear. A strike-oriented UCAV for the air wing would probably be multi-mission, subsonic and longer ranged than F/A-XX. It naturally would not be a CCA (which targets low cost / somewhat attritable requirements).
 
F/A-XX will be a manned, supersonic, next-gen follow-on fighter to the F/A-18 E/F and will fill the role for combat air patrol/air superiority and should fill the gap left after F-14 retirement. With that said, the USN still needs a purposed built medium attack/strike platform, whether manned, unmanned or a combination of both. The former A-6 and A-7 platforms were very good attack jets as examples.
 
Desertfox said:
Probably closer to 500 as the USAF is forced to buy them when NGAD goes under.
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That would be re-birth of a modern F-4 Phantom for the USAF, the USAF did not and does not like USN aircraft but the F-4 and A-7 did the USAF right.
 
Went to Boeing St Louis last week, got to tour the F-15EX line and the EMD MQ-25s. Boeing is still building their huge, new production building and composites center which is and maybe was for NGAD. But as we know, Kendall put the temporary brakes on NGAD. I've been doing aerospace for a very long time and with around 2 years to go (maybe), I still have some shelf life, hard to predict in these times how program awards are going to go. I think Boeing was initially selected for USAF NGAD but with Boeing's current woes, I can see where Kendall hit the pause button. NG may win F/A-XX and I cannot see LM winning USAF NGAD since they have F-22 and there will be a lot more F-35s built. Boeing may still get selected NGAD in order to keep three primes in the game and for years, NG used to be the underdog.
 
I would not exclude the possibility if NGAD were cancelled, but it still seems like a low probability. But FA-XX would probably have shorter runway requirements and still have a longer range than any other USAF fighter. If there is a large strike capacity, there presumably is a large AAM capability as well. And the USN would eat the dev costs. It probably would not be the worst plan B.
 
Boeing Military has done much better than Boeing Commercial, I still think Boeing is in the lead for NGAD and they also have T-7A in their pocket.

I would have expected NG (YF-23) to be lead on NGAD and Boeing (F/A-18E/F) to be lead on FA-XX, but its interesting they are not.
 
Hydroman said:
Went to Boeing St Louis last week, got to tour the F-15EX line and the EMD MQ-25s. Boeing is still building their huge, new production building and composites center which is and maybe was for NGAD. But as we know, Kendall put the temporary brakes on NGAD. I've been doing aerospace for a very long time and with around 2 years to go (maybe), I still have some shelf life, hard to predict in these times how program awards are going to go. I think Boeing was initially selected for USAF NGAD but with Boeing's current woes, I can see where Kendall hit the pause button. NG may win F/A-XX and I cannot see LM winning USAF NGAD since they have F-22 and there will be a lot more F-35s built. Boeing may still get selected NGAD in order to keep three primes in the game and for years, NG used to be the underdog.
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Boeing is very likely to get the Navy contract and they have known that for a while.
 
Hydroman said:
…. I think Boeing was initially selected for USAF NGAD but with Boeing's current woes, I can see where Kendall hit the pause button. ….
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Really? This is based on what statements or announcements?
 
quellish said:
Boeing is very likely to get the Navy contract and they have known that for a while.
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I'm at the point quellish that things could go in any direction regarding US defense procurement but you could be right about Boeing, lots of new construction in St Louis.
 
I am in the same boat Hydroman (excuse the pun). Boeing could have easily won the F/A-XX contract and obviously have since the new buildings going up in St Louis, how would you explain that. It is only a matter of time before news filters out on who has won the contract.
 
In terms of maintaining 3 separate big players in aerospace, grumman should be getting more contracts.
It has the b21, sure. And e-2. But what else?
Boeing has the stingray, t-7, kc46, any future tanker, p-8. Anything else?

Oh, just remembered, the sentinel is NG. Boeing was competing for that but ultimately withdrew. Sentinel is huge compared to most other programs.

If Boeing somehow got the sentinel contract I'd say NG chances for navy's fa-xx would be much better.
 
NG withdrew from the NGAD competition about a year ago, maybe a bit less. If the DOD wants three primes capable of designing and building fast jets, then Boeing will get NGAD and NG will get F/A-XX. Lockheed Martin already has F-35.

If NG re-enters the NGAD competition we could get the inverse.

Lockheed is only competing for NGAD at the moment.

It's also possible that Lockheed gets NGAD and Boeing gets F/A-XX. Surely Boeing will get something. This would leave NG with only B-21.
 
www.eurasiantimes.com

6th-Gen Aircraft: U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere

A truly global sixth-generation fighter jet can be in the offing. As financial constraints throw a spanner in the US Air Force and the US Navy’s plan to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet, the US is exploring the option of joining the European-Japanese consortium. The US Air Force and the...
www.eurasiantimes.com www.eurasiantimes.com

U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere​

Possible in current budget environment?
 
ntexastom said:
www.eurasiantimes.com

6th-Gen Aircraft: U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere

A truly global sixth-generation fighter jet can be in the offing. As financial constraints throw a spanner in the US Air Force and the US Navy’s plan to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet, the US is exploring the option of joining the European-Japanese consortium. The US Air Force and the...
www.eurasiantimes.com www.eurasiantimes.com

U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere​



Possible in current budget environment?
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No, plus I cannot imagine any of those countries want the U.S. involved at this point.
 
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzXQqakQFjE

ntexastom said:
www.eurasiantimes.com

6th-Gen Aircraft: U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere

A truly global sixth-generation fighter jet can be in the offing. As financial constraints throw a spanner in the US Air Force and the US Navy’s plan to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet, the US is exploring the option of joining the European-Japanese consortium. The US Air Force and the...
www.eurasiantimes.com www.eurasiantimes.com

U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere​

Possible in current budget environment?
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Mutually-assured kill switch as standard.
 
Is it absurd to say that NG leaving NGAD means F/A-XX for the win and Lockheed leaving F/A-XX means it has NGAD?
 
totoro said:
In terms of maintaining 3 separate big players in aerospace, grumman should be getting more contracts.
It has the b21, sure. And e-2. But what else?
Boeing has the stingray, t-7, kc46, any future tanker, p-8. Anything else?

Oh, just remembered, the sentinel is NG. Boeing was competing for that but ultimately withdrew. Sentinel is huge compared to most other programs.

If Boeing somehow got the sentinel contract I'd say NG chances for navy's fa-xx would be much better.
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Northrop is a big player in the design and production of f-35. that giant cash cow gonna keep giving them for a while.
Also RQ-180
 
Alot of that expansion in St Louis began in 2023 and includes other adjacent activities like coatings and advanced testing capabilities (not to mention standing up an advanced composites plant in Mesa that was scheduled for full operation in the Fall of 22). In June 2024 Boeing announced the 1.1mm sqft Advanced Combat Aircraft manufacturing center and obviously that was the month DAF started making anxious noises on NGAD, so the timing always struck me as notable, which for whatever reason at the time nudged me toward thinking that Boeing thought they were getting awarded NGAD. Of course on the other hand, the timing also fits with the coming F/A-XX decision and the collection of Phantom Works and Boeing advanced manufacturing assets could be invaluable for Incr 2 CCAs or a strike-oriented successor to Stingray.
 
Boeing clearly thinks it is winning one of these contracts. I had heard at least one rumor that USAF was impressed with their NGAD submission. And I would think NG the horse to bet on for FAXX, given their B-21 success.

But Quellish stated he thought Boeing had FAXX, and while there is a bit of tension between us, I would not bet against his predictions.
 
Josh_TN said:
Boeing clearly thinks it is winning one of these contracts. I had heard at least one rumor that USAF was impressed with their NGAD submission. And I would think NG the horse to bet on for FAXX, given their B-21 success.

But Quellish stated he thought Boeing had FAXX, and while there is a bit of tension between us, I would not bet against his predictions.
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Boeing is a dumpster fire ATM. 737 Max et. al. makes me personally squirm at the thought of giving them F/A-XX, and I have no skin in the game. That being said, Boeing will get F/A-XX. :)
 
Josh_TN said:
Boeing clearly thinks it is winning one of these contracts. I had heard at least one rumor that USAF was impressed with their NGAD submission. And I would think NG the horse to bet on for FAXX, given their B-21 success.

But Quellish stated he thought Boeing had FAXX, and while there is a bit of tension between us, I would not bet against his predictions.
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I know I've shared these images alot, but there's no speculation that this patent is from boeing, and it is for a high lift device for landing. Easter egg: The tail hook is down!
 

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Desertfox said:
Probably closer to 500 as the USAF is forced to buy them when NGAD goes under.
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That would honestly be a nightmare scenario for USAF. They hate buying Navy planes!



Hydroman said:
Went to Boeing St Louis last week, got to tour the F-15EX line and the EMD MQ-25s. Boeing is still building their huge, new production building and composites center which is and maybe was for NGAD. But as we know, Kendall put the temporary brakes on NGAD. I've been doing aerospace for a very long time and with around 2 years to go (maybe), I still have some shelf life, hard to predict in these times how program awards are going to go. I think Boeing was initially selected for USAF NGAD but with Boeing's current woes, I can see where Kendall hit the pause button. NG may win F/A-XX and I cannot see LM winning USAF NGAD since they have F-22 and there will be a lot more F-35s built. Boeing may still get selected NGAD in order to keep three primes in the game and for years, NG used to be the underdog.
Click to expand...
I still see Boeing winning NGAD to keep 3 primes, and NG getting FAXX.

I'd laugh my ass off if the new Boeing plants end up making parts for LM and NG...


ntexastom said:
www.eurasiantimes.com

6th-Gen Aircraft: U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere

A truly global sixth-generation fighter jet can be in the offing. As financial constraints throw a spanner in the US Air Force and the US Navy’s plan to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet, the US is exploring the option of joining the European-Japanese consortium. The US Air Force and the...
www.eurasiantimes.com www.eurasiantimes.com

U.S. Explores Joining Euro-Japanese GCAP Fighter Program As Its NGAD Is Heading Nowhere​

Possible in current budget environment?
Click to expand...
No, mostly because adding the US would add enormous delays to the program that GCAP cannot afford.


quellish said:
Boeing is very likely to get the Navy contract and they have known that for a while.
Click to expand...
How so?
 
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