USAF/USN 6th Gen Fighter - General Discussion and Speculation

I do wish that Boeing could get all it's problems sorted out sferrin it would be good to see Boeing get awarded the NGAD. At present there is no real competition for Lockheed.
 
Boeing has been developing and overcoming issues with its digital engineering, FSDA and other advanced processes. While these have caused issues for them these learnings associated with applying some of these on MQ-25, F-15EX, T-X and probably other classified efforts is something that is adding value and experience going into future programs. The company is also investing in facilities to support current and future programs. I wouldn't rule out them being able to turn it around on future programs simply because of the issues they've had that go back a long time..They seem to be in it to win as a prime and looks like would be open to making the sort of investments needed to do that. That's a good sign. Technical abilities and human capital only gets you so far if the company is not willing to make the internal investments upfront to posture on these big programs.
 
Quite the opposite. LM is making money and doing well. Growth in stable, and performing programs is more than offsetting losses on classified and non classified programs partly because it was smart in not following Boeing in making boneheaded decisions on low balling fixed priced contracts across the board.
 
Lockmart stock is a much better buy than Boeing perhaps, but their F-35 program seems to be an exercise in how not to develop an aircraft. That they are still making money hand over fist seems more like part of the problem to me, rather than a positive.
 
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When creating a promising fighter, we are faced with a contradiction: on the one hand, it is required to ensure a cruising supersonic speed of at least 1,830 km / h, for which the wing sweep of 42-50 degrees looks optimal. On the other hand, basing on an aircraft carrier, taking off with a catapult, and landing at a vertical speed of 6 m/s imply a moderate wing sweep of 20-35 degrees. Which sweep should I choose for the NGAD fighter?
 
Quite the opposite. LM is making money and doing well. Growth in stable, and performing programs is more than offsetting losses on classified and non classified programs partly because it was smart in not following Boeing in making boneheaded decisions on low balling fixed priced contracts across the board.
"Industry sources said the other classified program on which Lockheed took a charge may be an advanced drone for surveillance."
That is interesting...
 
I'd sure like to see Boeing get it's $hit together.

For that to happen Boeing must engage in a very thorough purging of the McDonnell Aircraft Corporation corporate culture that it was saddled with when Boeing acquired McD in 1997 and made the very serious mistake of letting the McD execs take over management of the new company. Joe Sutter must be spinning in his grave.
 
When creating a promising fighter, we are faced with a contradiction: on the one hand, it is required to ensure a cruising supersonic speed of at least 1,830 km / h, for which the wing sweep of 42-50 degrees looks optimal. On the other hand, basing on an aircraft carrier, taking off with a catapult, and landing at a vertical speed of 6 m/s imply a moderate wing sweep of 20-35 degrees. Which sweep should I choose for the NGAD fighter?
USAF NGAD isn't landing on a carrier so the sweep can be more aggressive. I'm not sure the statement that 1830 km/h cruise is a requirement is valid or at least confirmed. We just don't know what the USAF has asked for although at the very least some sort of high speed dash capability seems likely and supercruise might be a happy coincidence of the engine/airframe combination.

Navy NGAD, or F/A-XX, is far more likely to have that moderate wing sweep given it does have to land on a carrier and an expected requirement is greater persistence over present airframes.
 
USAF NGAD isn't landing on a carrier so the sweep can be more aggressive. I'm not sure the statement that 1830 km/h cruise is a requirement is valid or at least confirmed. We just don't know what the USAF has asked for although at the very least some sort of high speed dash capability seems likely and supercruise might be a happy coincidence of the engine/airframe combination.

Navy NGAD, or F/A-XX, is far more likely to have that moderate wing sweep given it does have to land on a carrier and an expected requirement is greater persistence over present airframes.
Or. . . (F-23 NATF)

tim-samedov-10.jpg
 
The NGAD, F/A-XX and the "European six" projects are conceptually very close, the best solution would be to combine them into one project. I assume that common sense and financial difficulties will force to do this. A promising fighter is being created within the framework of the general outline of the development of the armed forces. The project does not exist by itself. The first requirement is to replace the F-22, which means that the new car must surpass the Raptor in most parameters, otherwise there is no point in spending money on its creation. Cruising speed F-22 1500 - 1800 km/h. Take it and provide it. The second task is to replace the F/A-18E/F, and this is work from the deck of an aircraft carrier and strike operations with clusters of bombs hanging under the wings. The French also need a carrier-based fighter for a new aircraft carrier, which could help them join the alliance.
 
The NGAD, F/A-XX and the "European six" projects are conceptually very close, the best solution would be to combine them into one project. I assume that common sense and financial difficulties will force to do this.
That would be a bad assumption... The programs are different enough that there potentially aren't enough cross over requirements, even between just the two US programs, that it won't happen. Additionally outside of capability requirements there are also industrial requirements. The Europeans are building their aircraft to preserve their industry as well as replace their current fighter fleets.

A promising fighter is being created within the framework of the general outline of the development of the armed forces. The project does not exist by itself. The first requirement is to replace the F-22, which means that the new car must surpass the Raptor in most parameters, otherwise there is no point in spending money on its creation.
Again you're working from a flawed assumption. There may be a requirement for a supercruise capability but the F-22/ATF was conceived in the 1980s to dominate a Soviet threat. Air warfare has changed since the 1980s and so the set of requirements from which the F-22 emerged may be different to that of the NGAD, FCAS, GCAS, F/A-XX. For example these airframes may not retain a 9g manoeuvre capability, trading the structural reinforcement and fatigue life for additional payload

.The second task is to replace the F/A-18E/F, and this is work from the deck of an aircraft carrier and strike operations with clusters of bombs hanging under the wings. The French also need a carrier-based fighter for a new aircraft carrier, which could help them join the alliance.
Instead of building the Rafale the French could have joined n on the F/A-18 but they chose not too. Given the Rafale's recent export success why would you expect the French to drop tools and work with the US on a new carrier fighter? The new French aircraft carrier is expected to be 310m long, 23m shorter than a Nimitz and 27m shorter than the Ford class. I haven't seen any info yet on whether the French Aircraft Carrier will use the same EMALS catapult as the US Ford or whether it will use a smaller or less powerful version as they do with their current steam catapults (currently France use the C-13-3 which generates only 60k lbs compared to the US carriers with 80k lbs).
 
The key differences may be in the measurement system, and it's high time to abandon this anachronism of feet and gallons ;)
The characteristics are almost identical, except for the range.

NGAD vs GCAS
 

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Boy, do I remember this, I still have my display model.
Every time I look at it I wonder if they remember the problems the F-111 had with intakes in that location and how would they have fared in the kind of high AOA environment we see the F-22 fly.
 
The European and US programs couldn't be further apart. Heck, even the two US programs are quite a bit apart in role, mission, technology and financial/budget considerations. USAF wants a F-22 replacement to lead the the Counter Air mission. It is pursuing exquisite technologies and has acknowledged that it will be very expensive thus limited to a sub-200 aircraft fleet. US Navy wants a strike fighter to replace Super Hornet in, hopefully, large quantities and has indicated that to get those quantities, it needs to make smart and sensible technology trades with affordability in mind (hence not pursuing an adaptive engine and likely a generational leap in VLO).

Japan, Britain and Italy seem to be building quite a large, long range strike fighter whereas we don't really know what the Franco-German project is shooting for other than whatever comes out of it would need a carrier variant. Essentially nothing in common between these efforts. At least on the JSF there was a common thread in that the core/majority of the partners were F-16 operators. There's nothing like that here. Moreover, one of the key goals of the GCAP seems to be ITAR free so that the US has no veto power over its export.I would assume that would be something the SCAF replicates as well. These are being designed to keep US industry out of these systems to as large an extent as possible (totally out being the goal).
 
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USAF wants a F-22 replacement to lead the the Counter Air mission. It is pursuing exquisite technologies and has acknowledged that it will be very expensive thus limited to a sub-200 aircraft fleet.
The moment they realized it's going to be a sub-200 fleet, they asked for a way out, though.
They clearly didn't want it end up like this.
F-22 fleet isn't a marvel to repeat, F-22 is a sad reminder of an initial plan for 750.
 
US Navy wants a strike fighter to replace Super Hornet in, hopefully, large quantities and has indicated that to get those quantities, it needs to make smart and sensible technology trades with affordability in mind (hence not pursuing an adaptive engine and likely a generational leap in VLO).
The best 'large quantity' w/ 'smart & sensible technology trades w/affordability in mind' w 'adaptive engines' & 'a generational leap in VLO' capability is more missiles launched from VLSs, likely from minimally manned ocean barges able to disperse across the near littoral.
 
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The moment they realized it's going to be a sub-200 fleet, they asked for a way out, though.

They continued to develop it and floated a RFP to industry in 2023 a decade or more after funding technology development, risk reduction and other demonstrations. Only when presented with a not so great budget outlook did they decide to put it on ice at the 11th hour possibly weeks before source selection and formal launch of EMD. This after the SecAF talking out of his rear end nearly triggered an IG investigation of the program..You don't estimate the cost of your 'requirements' prior to source selection. The USAF then then assembled a team of experts to grade their homework and recommend a path forward. That team recommended that they pursue the NGAD platform..You do that prior to solidying them and floating out to industry and having them bid for it.

We could still see the Trump administration kill the whole effort in favor of something else but the plan currently seems to be to field an exquisite and expensive NGAD platform optimized for Counter Air along with affordable unmanned CCA's which make up the 'combat mass'. I could see this falling flat on its face if the CCA effort ends up being a complete dud and the AF being forced to field a much larger (500+) force of next generation aircraft. In that case, affordability will force them to a much less sophisticated aircraft..possibly an F-35A++..We should know as the new administration starts to put together its FY26 request.

The best 'large quantity' w/ 'smart & sensible technology trades w/affordability in mind' w 'adaptive engines' & 'a generational leap in VLO' capability is more missiles launched from VLSs, likely from minimally manned ocean barges able disperse across the near littoral.
Well, I guess we know what F/A-XX will look like then. ;)
 
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With no NG, the USAF has kind of a dilemma on its hands with only LM and Boeing as potential NGAD primes and Boeing with it's many company and program reputation issues. If USAF awarded LM NGAD then Boeing is out of the running for any future fighter aircraft and LM becomes the USAF fighter supplier. NG will probably get F/A-XX. NG may also have a medium strike platform as well with commonality similar to "RQ-180" and B-21, NG is good at derivative platforms from a common design element and NG seems to be the DOD choice for any flying wing-type advanced platforms. If NG does not get F/A-XX, NG will basically be the advanced strike platform prime which would mean strategic along with medium strike and I assume both subsonic and supersonic/supercruising VLO/LO platforms. Seems NG and LM are leaving Boeing behind but I may be wrong, our DOD can work in weird ways sometimes.

Hypothetically....

Around 2018 two sets of demonstrators flew. Lockheed NGAD-AF and Boeing NGAD-N (FA-XX).
The Air Force has moved forward with it's agile/next generation acquisition model where all aspects of the program will be constantly iterating and competed through the life cycle of the program ("Digital Century Series"). NG did not bid on NGAD because this model did not align with their business goals. FA-XX is not using the same acquisition model that NGAD is.

This left Lockheed and Boeing. Throughout the USAF "next generation" acquisition documents they mention avoiding vendor lock in and "winner takes all". This is a shot at Lockheed, which in previous programs has very much locked USAF into going through Lockheed for any changes, etc. and to a much greater degree than the other primes. USAF does not want to deal with Lockheed on this program unless Lockheed makes major changes, which they have been unwilling to do.

Which leaves Boeing. USAF isn't pleased with Boeing because of performance on other programs and they believe that Boeing is almost guaranteed to win FA-XX (which is probably true). They don't want to have both NGAD and FA-XX go to the same prime because of the effects on the industrial base.
 
NG did not bid on NGAD because this model did not align with their business goals.
Sounds like NG has good biz goals..be the last standing.
 
Seeking continuous competition for production, follow-on development and/or sustainment, and owning technology and IP and preventing vendor lock is a noble pursuit but one that will need to be paid for upfront (nothing is free) in the hope of greater savings and more agility and innovation down the road. For this to work, you need stable plans and requirements. You can't take a 400 a/c program and slash it down to 150 after spending so much upfront to acquire the technical baseline and rights etc. Do that a few times and you'll be broke. AF, DOD or Congress hasn't really had that stability and acquisition discipline in a while so it remains to be seen if the concept works as well in reality as it does in theory.
 
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Which leaves Boeing. USAF isn't pleased with Boeing because of performance on other programs and they believe that Boeing is almost guaranteed to win FA-XX (which is probably true). They don't want to have both NGAD and FA-XX go to the same prime because of the effects on the industrial base.

I had not heard that Boeing was the favorite for FA-XX, though I had thought I heard the USAF was impressed with their NGAD offering. Am I mixing the two up in my head? Or do they seem in a good position to win either program? Is there anyway DoD would accept them as the prime on both? That seems…like a lot of eggs in one basket.
 
There had been reporting (Vago Muradian's Defense & Aerospace podcast) that the Air Force liked the Boeing proposal but I would take that with a basket full of salt.
 
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Personally I see value in being as flexible as possible with the configuration even after construction. I would separate out the engine nacelle, wing and sensors into modules that you could "clip" together depending on requirements. If you need a twin engine fighter, add another identical nacelle to the wing platform.

Key to this is making sure that there are no unique parts to each configuration; the "max" configuration is just more of the same.

The nacelle would include the engine, the rear landing gear and weapons bays and secondary fuel tanks. The front wheel would be in a separate module which could include a gun / irst.

The wing would be only contain fuel as well as the usual actuators for the flaps /ailerons. The wing tips would be all moving.

The sensor module would include the cockpit (if required) as well as more fuel. The radar arrays would sit here, as well as most of receivers / aerials / comms.
 

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They continued to develop it and floated a RFP to industry in 2023 a decade or more after funding technology development, risk reduction and other demonstrations. Only when presented with a not so great budget outlook did they decide to put it on ice at the 11th hour possibly weeks before source selection and formal launch of EMD. This after the SecAF talking out of his rear end nearly triggered an IG investigation of the program..You don't estimate the cost of your 'requirements' prior to source selection. The USAF then then assembled a team of experts to grade their homework and recommend a path forward. That team recommended that they pursue the NGAD platform..You do that prior to solidying them and floating out to industry and having them bid for it.
My understanding is exactly after 2023, and especially after hold in 2024 this can not be considered plan anymore.

Exactly b/c otherwise stopping wouldn't make sense. Yet stop they did, and will proceed with original only if funding is to be significantly increased. It can't deliver on needs within available budget, and the reason for that was stated - numbers.

This is not unusual in US development history, similar turns happened with both 4th and 5th generation aircraft.
 
My understanding is exactly after 2023, and especially after hold in 2024 this can not be considered plan anymore.

The USAF has been pursuing a set of technologies and capabilities on NGAD for more than a decade. This advanced to a full scale demonstrator back in 2019. The USAF then advanced on its programmatic milestones and released an RFP to industry back in 2023.The pause was in the summer of 2024 a mere weeks away from when the source selection was expected.

What changed between 2023 and the decade leading up to it and 2024? Frank Kendall, who took the decision described this as primarily a budget based decision. The Biden administration in compliance with a deal with Congress made some significant budget changes in FY2025 to comply with the FRA. As the prior SecAF described in his exit interview, the new realities made it reconsider because while NGAD was very important, it wasn't the the only thing the service wanted to fund. So in line with guidance from his bosses on a budget topline, the SecAF paused NGAD and established a team of experts to determine whether this path was still the best path forward given the new fiscal realities. The experts he established under the leadership of his chosen person recommend that the service pursue the NGAD platform. Ultimately though they only validated the need for this and the AF's set of technologies and platform..whether that advances to EMD is still going to be a budget based decision.

So to recap, if the budget permits this approach to NGAD is still considered (by the team of outsiders established by the AF) the best path forward. Obviously, if the new administration does not intend on resourcing the USAF beyond what the Biden administration expected then it might still lead the AF to an alternate path..but that will be a fiscally motivated decision..
 
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I'd sure like to see Boeing get it's $hit together. Things can change.
They really do need to get their $hit together.

But I don't see it happening.



When creating a promising fighter, we are faced with a contradiction: on the one hand, it is required to ensure a cruising supersonic speed of at least 1,830 km / h, for which the wing sweep of 42-50 degrees looks optimal. On the other hand, basing on an aircraft carrier, taking off with a catapult, and landing at a vertical speed of 6 m/s imply a moderate wing sweep of 20-35 degrees. Which sweep should I choose for the NGAD fighter?
NGAD is specifically USAF.

F/A-XX is USN.

And I would not be surprised if the F/A-XX gets swing wings. Crud, the LockMart N-ATF proposal had swing-wings.



The European and US programs couldn't be further apart. Heck, even the two US programs are quite a bit apart in role, mission, technology and financial/budget considerations. USAF wants a F-22 replacement to lead the the Counter Air mission. It is pursuing exquisite technologies and has acknowledged that it will be very expensive thus limited to a sub-200 aircraft fleet. US Navy wants a strike fighter to replace Super Hornet in, hopefully, large quantities and has indicated that to get those quantities, it needs to make smart and sensible technology trades with affordability in mind (hence not pursuing an adaptive engine and likely a generational leap in VLO).
The F/A-XX is basically the return of the A/F-X (A-6 and F-14 replacement). Mostly a long-range strike platform, with AA as a secondary role.



Japan, Britain and Italy seem to be building quite a large, long range strike fighter whereas we don't really know what the Franco-German project is shooting for other than whatever comes out of it would need a carrier variant. Essentially nothing in common between these efforts. At least on the JSF there was a common thread in that the core/majority of the partners were F-16 operators. There's nothing like that here. Moreover, one of the key goals of the GCAP seems to be ITAR free so that the US has no veto power over its export.I would assume that would be something the SCAF replicates as well. These are being designed to keep US industry out of these systems to as large an extent as possible (totally out being the goal).
I think the SCAF will still be a strike fighter. I mean, it's intended to replace Rafale. As to range, I suspect it's going to be fairly long. Like "Western France to the Polish-Russian border and back".
 
The NGAD, F/A-XX and the "European six" projects are conceptually very close, the best solution would be to combine them into one project.
My personal hope is that NGAD is reasonably capable, affordable, and quickly produced and fielded with a minimum of foreign subs so that the only supply lines I have to worry about threatening rapid production are here. I don't need to worry about foreign labour strikes or transporting major systems and sub-assemblies across oceans to actually produce my new fighter in large quantities rapidly if the smelly stuff ever hits the fan.

Another joint multinational program with bits and bobs being built in 70+ countries and partners introducing their own requirements kills about each and every one of those hopes for NGAD.
 
My personal hope is that NGAD is reasonably capable, affordable, and quickly produced and fielded with a minimum of foreign subs so that the only supply lines I have to worry about threatening rapid production are here. I don't need to worry about foreign labour strikes or transporting major systems and sub-assemblies across oceans to actually produce my new fighter in large quantities rapidly if the smelly stuff ever hits the fan.
Unfortunately, the supply chain for any complicated production effort, like a next gen aircraft, will be multinational. The United States does not make every possible input and precursor for an aircraft. Many rare earth metals come from China, for example. During wartime, there will be disruptions in production. There will also be a scramble to secure alternative supply chains for any inputs that have been disrupted. Replacements will be found or seized by force. The only 100% effective hedge against supply chain disruption are your stockpiles at the outset of war.
 
My personal hope is that NGAD is reasonably capable, affordable, and quickly produced and fielded with a minimum of foreign subs so that the only supply lines I have to worry about threatening rapid production are here. I don't need to worry about foreign labour strikes or transporting major systems and sub-assemblies across oceans to actually produce my new fighter in large quantities rapidly if the smelly stuff ever hits the fan.
At this point we haven't seen any serous mention of USAF NGAD being exported so I expect it will be almost exclusively a US supply line. Could maybe include a smattering of Japanese or Australian manufactured composites etc but even that seems unlikely.
Another joint multinational program with bits and bobs being built in 70+ countries and partners introducing their own requirements kills about each and every one of those hopes for NGAD.
Agree but multinational programs also help in other ways. F-35 supply line is wide and diverse and has provided the justification, whether people agree or not, regarding industrial participation in the program. The UK is the best example, as a tier 1 partner they have huge industrial work on the program for a comparatively low investment and aircraft acquisition. Hence going multinational adds airframes and reduces overall costs.
 
The United States does not make every possible input and precursor for an aircraft. Many rare earth metals come from China, for example.
Rare earth minerals are not rare. We have a ton of our own, and even mine them.
 
Agree but multinational programs also help in other ways.
In the case of the F-35, it only served to make it "too big to fail".

The UK is the best example, as a tier 1 partner they have huge industrial work on the program for a comparatively low investment and aircraft acquisition.
Alternate reading: While partner nations helped with "comparatively low investment" towards development cost, they also stripped outsized shares of industrial work from American firms.
 

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