Ukraine War - News Only Topic

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Arjen said:
www.euronews.com

Poland's surprise move to reject German air defence system causes stir

Warsaw's suggestion to donate it to Ukraine instead has left Berlin concerned about further NATO involvement in the war in eastern Europe, while domestic critics believe the move was a mistake. #EuropeNews
www.euronews.com www.euronews.com
The news over here is Germany's offer came with German support personnel. Over the years, the Polish PiS government has leaned heavily on anti-German rhetoric for electoral gain - no matter how useful the German personnel and missiles might be to Poland, accepting German support would amount to an about-face for PiS. German (NATO) support crew in Ukraine has all kinds of interesting political ramifications. Short term tactical view, Ukraine would find Patriot missiles extremely useful.
I am unsure what in the end drove the PiS government to choose this course.
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The main reason for the change of course is the upcoming general election in Poland next year, so the government in Poland and its leading party PiS (Law and Justice) can use anti-German and anti-Russian sentiments to gain more votes.
Link: https://breakingdefense.com/2022/11...lead-poland-to-reject-germanys-patriot-offer/
 
This seems a worthy news report and analysis from a reputable source. Given the repeated descent of other threads on Ukraine into chaos, I won't object to this thread being locked or this post moved. I hope that the thread can be exclusively devoted to delayed data-based analysis from reputable sources, not immediate reactions.

"In battle nothing is ever as good or as bad as the first reports of excited men would have it” - William Slim

www.economist.com

What is the war in Ukraine teaching Western armies?

It shows the importance of dispersal, firepower and stockpiles
www.economist.com www.economist.com

It's reporting on this:


Key takeaways:

Ukraine endured this initial blitz largely because it had the foresight to disperse its munitions stockpiles from main arsenals a week before the invasion, with those efforts accelerating three days before the war

Russian command chain operates very slowly and hierarchially, meaning two days before a strike can be mounted, by which time the target will have moved.

“There is no sanctuary in modern warfare,” concludes the report. “The enemy can strike throughout operational depth”—in other words, well behind the notional front lines. [HG Wells pointed this out over a century ago]

Sensors are so effective that The best way of surviving is simply to disperse and move more quickly than the enemy can spot you.

Contrary to popular wisdom, Javelin and nlaw anti-tank missiles supplied by America and Britain did not save the day, despite featuring heavily in video footage from the first week of the conflict. Nor did Turkey’s tb2 drones, which struggled to survive after day three.

The pivotal role of artillery is a sobering thought for western European armies, whose firepower has dwindled dramatically since the end of the cold war.

Drones have played a vital role, though largely for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance rather than for strike missions.

But a key lesson from Ukraine is that armies need more drones than they think. Around 90% of all drones used by the Ukrainian armed forces between February and July were destroyed, notes rusi. The average life expectancy of a fixed-wing drone was approximately six flights; that of a simpler quadcopter a paltry three. Such attrition would chew up the fleets of European armies in a matter of days.

It puts a premium on cheap and simple systems, which can be treated as near-disposable, rather than tiny fleets of large and expensive drones, with big liquid-fuelled engines, carrying advanced sensors.

The most important way of countering drones, says rusi, is to use electronic warfare (ew), a weapon whose invisibility has left it languishing in the shadows.

Mr Watling tells the story of two Russian pilots overheard complaining that their radars are scrambled. They quickly realise that their own ew pods... are each targeting the other’s radar. The pods are duly turned off, forcing the planes to fly without electronic protection in a dangerous zone.

“We don’t have many exercise areas where we can actually turn all of our ew equipment on,” he says. “We can do it in niche contexts. We have not tested doing it at scale.”

Essential search terms then: dispersal, mobility, deception, artillery (including rockets), drones (cheap, expendable, and numerous), techniques for co-ordinated EW over large, dense theatres.
 
jsport said:
www.spacewar.com

War of attrition: Russia's stubborn fight for Ukraine's Bakhmut

Kyiv, Ukraine (AFP) Dec 9, 2022 - For months, Russian forces have attacked the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut with frontal assaults, artillery barrages and air strikes in a stubborn battle for a settlement deemed strategically irrelevant by many observers.
www.spacewar.com
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"Our task is not Bakhmut itself, but the destruction of the Ukrainian army and the reduction of its combat potential, which has an extremely positive effect on other areas, which is why this operation was dubbed the 'Bakhmut meat grinder.'"

It is very smart plan. Bakhmut area is very efficient meat grinder for Ukrainian soldiers (which are only a cannon fodder). They have a huge losses there. Before December Ukrainians have over 100 000 killed soldiers (about 50% all).
 
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Refreshingly even-handed opinion piece from Newsweek drawing parallels to the US civil war by these guys:

David H. Rundell is a former chief of mission at the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia and the author of Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads. Ambassador Michael Gfoeller is a former Political Advisor to the U.S. Central Command. He served for 15 years in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union
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Talks about the current situation including Bakhmut, the Russian mobilisation as well as the wider implications:

www.newsweek.com

Lessons From the U.S. Civil War Show Why Ukraine Can't Win

During the early years of America's Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln sought a limited conflict against people he still regarded as fellow countrymen and with whom he sought reconciliation. Only after three years of stalemate did he turn to "Unconditional Surrender Grant," who in turn unleashed
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
 
Ukraine has called for the west to supply Patriot missiles batteries and other modern air defence systems, amid growing concern that attacks by Russia on its electricity grid could prompt a new wave of refugees from the wartorn country.
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So far the US has resisted supplying Ukraine with the sophisticated air defence systems, while a recent attempt by Poland to get Germany to deploy a Patriot battery into the country was rejected by Berlin.
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www.theguardian.com

Ukraine calls for Patriot missiles to defend its grid and stop rise in refugees

Prime minister Denys Shmyhal says western air defence systems will keep power stations working despite Russian attacks
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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Additional context on why supply the Patriot system now. In other words it’s no use supplying them if you don’t have the personnel to operate them.

The Patriots appear to be supplied now not in response to an urgent need but because of a lag in response time. The Ukrainians have been asking for Patriot missiles since before the Russian invasion when the main threat was seen as Russian aircraft and missiles. At the time, U.S. officials decided it would take too long to train Ukrainian crews to use the system.
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The Patriot missiles will provide a useful capability going forward – the threat from ballistic missiles has not disappeared – but the real significance is that the U.S. is now willing to supply heavier weaponry than the hand-held Javelin and Stinger missile shipped over in the early days of the invasion. The Patriot missiles were part of a long list of hardware that the U.S. has previously been reluctant to supply, from F-16 jets to battle tanks and long-range missiles. The Patriots are a first indication that things are changing and we may see some much more significant arms transfers in the new year.
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www.forbes.com

Why Does Ukraine Want Patriot Missiles Which Could Not Protect Saudi Arabia Against Drones?

Patriot missiles may do little to stop waves of small kamikaze drones. But while more suitable weapons tackle the drones, the supplying Patriots is an important signal of a new U.S. willingness to supply more capable weapons to Ukraine.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
The Pentagon has ramped up preparations to arm Kyiv, finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system, which should greatly enhance Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against attacks from the skies, including missiles and armed drones.
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The Defense Department is also weighing sending other weapons, such as kits that would convert unguided aerial munitions into smart bombs, as well as explosives that would significantly extend Ukraine’s strike range. There are also, according to officials, discussions underway to expand training for Ukraine’s military at a U.S. base in Germany.
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www.politico.com

White House leans on Congress, rallies allies, to aid Ukraine through winter of war

Republicans threaten to trim funding, but will they prevail?
www.politico.com www.politico.com
 
apnews.com

US to send $1.8 billion in aid, Patriot battery, to Ukraine

Officials tell The Associated Press the U.S. will send $1.8 billion in military aid to Ukraine in a massive package that will for the first time include a Patriot missile battery and precision-guided bombs for their fighter jets.
apnews.com apnews.com
www.aljazeera.com

US to send $1.8bn aid to Ukraine, including Patriot system: Media

Media reports suggest Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may travel to Washington, DC to meet US President Joe Biden.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
 
Now officially confirmed.

"Today's assistance for the first time includes the Patriot Air Defense System, capable of bringing down cruise missiles, short range ballistic missiles, and aircraft at a significantly higher ceiling than previously provided air defense systems," Blinken added.
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www.dw.com

Presidents Biden and Zelenskyy meet at the White House – DW – 12/21/2022

US President Joe Biden met his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House. After the meeting, Zelenskyy is expected to address Congress.
www.dw.com www.dw.com
 
But it won't be an immediate boost. The Patriots won’t provide any assistance to Ukraine in the near-term.
“Patriot does require training and we expect it will take several months to ensure Ukrainian forces have the training they need to employ it successfully,” said the senior defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official added that the U.S. is working with Ukraine to "assist them to be able to manage and integrate a variety of [air defense] capabilities."
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Other than saying the training will begin “very soon,” the official, citing operational security concerns, declined to offer a timeline. They also declined to outline how many Ukrainian troops will be trained on the system, where that training will take place, or when the system will become operational in Ukraine. Nor would the official say exactly where the U.S. will draw the system from or how many interceptor missiles will be provided.
When asked by The War Zone whether the U.S. will provide the more advanced Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) missiles or older PAC-3 missiles, a senior U.S. military official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, declined comment, citing operational security concerns.
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www.thedrive.com

Ukraine's Patriot Missiles Will Take "Several Months" To Arrive

President Zelensky was thankful for the long-requested Patriot battery, but it will take time to train crews and deploy them to the combat zone.
www.thedrive.com www.thedrive.com
 
www.defense.gov

Ukrainian Troops Headed to U.S. for Patriot Missile Training

Training for Ukrainian forces on the Patriot air defense system will begin as soon as next week at Fort Sill, Okla., the Pentagon press secretary said.
www.defense.gov
"Training for Ukrainian forces on the Patriot air defense system will begin as soon as next week at Fort Sill, Oklahoma," Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said today. "The training will prepare approximately 90 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers to operate, maintain and sustain the defensive system over a training course expected to last several months."
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uk 75 said:
Given how many countries around the world have large stocks of weapons they cannot really use, maybe the UK is taking a leaf out of Oliver North's book and hoovering up weapons from our various mates in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Latin America.
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Quite possible, it's been done with M109s from Belgium already.

Maybe the guns being sent over are surplus 20mm Oerlikon or 30mm Bushmaster cannons taken off of Royal Navy ships? That is, if the guns are even from the UK......
 
"Bottom line: accountants can never build a perfectly efficient army with zero fat, because..."

Tangential, but when the first wide-body jets came in, was apparently a very late stage before some-one pointed out that the number of 'wash-rooms' allocated meant there'd be a queue outside each all the time the seat-belt light was off...

To the accountants' dismay, several ranks of potentially very profitable seats had to be ripped out, 'comfort' provisions significantly increased...

At least it saved Boeing and the air-lines a 'New Cola / Old Cola' wind-back, amid tales of people peeing in their sick-bags...

Sadly, seems the mind-set of those hapless accountants endured, led to their current generation emasculating Eng QA/QC...
:( :( :( :( :(
 
The Netherlands has signaled its willingness to transfer F16 aircraft to Ukraine.
I am not sure that Western combat aircraft can do much more than the Sukhois and Migs of the Ukrainian AF unless they come equipped with the weapons and electronics fits of NATO standards.. Supporting these at a distance from NATO may well be too complicated.
SAM and anti aircraft guns would seem more useful as they can counter the threat of drones and missiles. Russian aircraft are already reluctant to brave these.
Maverick and Brimstone weapons could be mated to Su25 aircraft more easily than supplying A10s.
The one aircraft that does seem suitable for the Ukraine is the Saab Gripen. It has the necessary rough runway performance and can carry a range of weapons. They are in service with the Czech AF.
 
If Gripen comes with proper network support, it poses a challenge all of its own to any opposing force. Downside: there are not that many of the type around, and fully exploiting a networked Gripen force probably comes with a steep learning curve.
 
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I'm merging in existing topics and cleaning them. This will take a while for the moderation team, so please don't report historic posts in this topic for not complying with the rules. Any posts after this post, feel free to report as noted above.
 
Rare Russian combat vehicle spotted in Ukraine

Fnpl9_oWAAMZunT.jpg
 
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