Turkey Shoot - Iranian Drone and Missile attack on Israel

It is quite weird indeed. Why on Earth would have Israel lobbed just three F-16's ALBMs at this corner of Iran ? Ok, this is the base of the Tomcats but I'm not sure these planes are the biggest threat to Israel nowadays.

Something is wrong there. I mean, every other strikes of this kind in IDF/AF history (Osirak, Tunis, Syria) were raw, brute efficiency and well defined targets - properly demolished.

But this raid looks like three small missiles lobbed at a remote corner of the iranian desert... WDF ? did they intend to kill camels or desert rats ?
 
Archibald said:
It is quite weird indeed. Why on Earth would have Israel lobbed just three F-16's ALBMs at this corner of Iran ? Ok, this is the base of the Tomcats but I'm not sure these planes are the biggest threat to Israel nowadays.

Something is wrong there. I mean, every other strikes of this kind in IDF/AF history (Osirak, Tunis, Syria) were raw, brute efficiency and well defined targets - properly demolished.

But this raid looks like three small missiles lobbed at a remote corner of the iranian desert... WDF ? did they intend to kill camels or desert rats ?
Click to expand...

The target seems to be an air defense site near the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. The message seems pretty clear -- "We could have hit Natanz itself but decided not to escalate things."
 
Yeah but as I said, the air defence site doesn't appear to show any damage after the attack. So either they failed to penetrate the SAM batteries defences or missed it. It contrasts with the Nevatim airbase that Israel also intially denied substantially hit, despite the visible craters and scorch marks on sat imagery. Initially releasing the image of a small crater in a disused runway and saying 'that was the extent of the damage' before later revealing more extensive damage. (Image 1 then 2)

WhatsApp_Image_2024-04-14_at_20.03.02_1.jpeg


https://twitter.com/x/status/1779930379291333027
View: https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1779930379291333027?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1779930379291333027%7Ctwgr%5Ea0e859b33b2b07c600518fdce5327a67806e1ac1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.timesofisrael.com%2Fliveblog_entry%2Fidf-says-air-base-hit-in-iran-attack-running-as-usual%2F
 
I'm leaning more towards a combination attack. "Yes, we can reach Natanz. We didn't, because we didn't want to escalate." plus "Now we know where your C&C nodes are, as well as the voices of your senior staff."
 
WatcherZero said:
So quick maths,
170 drones and 30 cruise missiles, all except 5 cruise missiles were intercepted by aircraft before they reached Israel
115-130 ballistic missiles launched "50% failed at launch or in flight and intercepts weren't attempted" so roughly 58-65 effective weapons. US said they destroyed 1 ballistic missile and 7 drones on the ground before they launched. 1 was intercepted by the Patriot battery at Erbil and 6 by offshore US ships. So Israeli defences left to contend with between 50-57 ballistic missiles. 9 Ballistic missiles got through the defences with 4 striking Negev base and 5 striking Nevatim airbase. So thats an Israeli intercept rate of the Ballistic missiles of between 82% - 84.2% and a combined US/Israeli intercept rate of 85.5% - 86%. (plus the 5 cruise missiles intercepted).

Damage was fairly minimal, one unused runway was cratered, several empty storage buildings were destroyed and one C-130 transport was damaged.
Click to expand...

LOL perhaps I should do OSINT. Maariv says the ballistic interception rate was 84%.

www.maariv.co.il

"אתרים נפגעו": טענות על הנזק שגרמה המתקפה האיראנית בישראל

אור פיאלקוב, חוקר מלחמות ישראל וטרור, הציג בשיחה עם "מעריב" טענות שונות שעלו ברשת בנוגע להיקף הנזק לישראל ביום המתקפה, ונתן פרטים נוספים על פגיעות הטילים במטרות ישראליות
www.maariv.co.il
 
Lt Col Curtis “Voodoo” Culver, one of the squadron commanders from the April 2024 counter-drone defense of Israel, told me the day after, “we could not have done what we did without the WSO.” The task of managing multiple sensors, employing a radar that sees everything, talking/listening on three radios, and keeping track of swarms of drones and cruise missiles, all while shaping the battle-space in a organized, highly professional and concerted effort to provide a manageable picture for PATRIOT, NASAMS, or other ground-based air defenses is, difficult. Yet, this is a mission tailor-made (among many other missions) for the crewed EX. Throw a few JASSM shots or a half-dozen SDBII retargeting efforts in there, and you have yourself a party.
[...]
Currently, there exists a large pool of highly talented Weapons System Officers (WSO) in the USAF. These aircrew have more combat time, more recent and numerous air-to-air (A/A) kills, and have removed more enemies of freedom from the battlefield over the last 35 years than all modern air superiority units, combined. Those WSOs have a role to play in EX. If the WSO offered an insignificant benefit to EX with a negative cost/benefit, I would call for the dissolution of the 12F career field after the inevitable (future) F-15E divestiture. Fortunately for the nation, this is not the case. The WSO is a force multiplier, now and in the future, and EX is the delivery method.
Click to expand...

phoenixdriver.substack.com

The F-15EX and the Burden of Platform Culture

How cultural status quo and resistance to change could hinder one of America's greatest combat assets before it’s even operational.
phoenixdriver.substack.com phoenixdriver.substack.com
 

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