The Great Turkey Shoot over Jordan: the story of the Iranian Drone and Missile attack against Israel and how it was defeated

France still shy on their prowess over Jordan, MoD only aknowledging one single drone shot.

But, at least, we have a kill mark on a Rafale:

rafale-4e-shahed-20240601.jpg

Rafale B nbr 333 [marked 4-IH]

www.opex360.com

L'État-major des armées confirme qu'au moins un drone Shahed iranien a été abattu par les Rafale de Chammal - Zone Militaire

Dans la nuit du 13 au 14 avril, l'Iran lança une attaque massive contre Israël, en représailles à une frappe de Tsahal ayant visé la section consulaire de
www.opex360.com www.opex360.com
 
Lt Col Curtis “Voodoo” Culver, one of the squadron commanders from the April 2024 counter-drone defense of Israel, told me the day after, “we could not have done what we did without the WSO.” The task of managing multiple sensors, employing a radar that sees everything, talking/listening on three radios, and keeping track of swarms of drones and cruise missiles, all while shaping the battle-space in a organized, highly professional and concerted effort to provide a manageable picture for PATRIOT, NASAMS, or other ground-based air defenses is, difficult. Yet, this is a mission tailor-made (among many other missions) for the crewed EX. Throw a few JASSM shots or a half-dozen SDBII retargeting efforts in there, and you have yourself a party.
[...]
Currently, there exists a large pool of highly talented Weapons System Officers (WSO) in the USAF. These aircrew have more combat time, more recent and numerous air-to-air (A/A) kills, and have removed more enemies of freedom from the battlefield over the last 35 years than all modern air superiority units, combined. Those WSOs have a role to play in EX. If the WSO offered an insignificant benefit to EX with a negative cost/benefit, I would call for the dissolution of the 12F career field after the inevitable (future) F-15E divestiture. Fortunately for the nation, this is not the case. The WSO is a force multiplier, now and in the future, and EX is the delivery method.
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phoenixdriver.substack.com

The F-15EX and the Burden of Platform Culture

How cultural status quo and resistance to change could hinder one of America's greatest combat assets before it’s even operational.
phoenixdriver.substack.com phoenixdriver.substack.com
 
At least it makes for cool fireworks. Otherwise: I don't care anymore, that part of the world is forever fucked up, AFAIK they can all go to hell.
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Nah, I said it.
 
Its a bit early days, reports seem to indicate the attack consisted of fewer missiles (180-200) than the previous 400 Drone/Cruise/Ballistic weapons used in the first attack but in this one they were mostly ballistic missiles as opposed to the first attack where only two dozen were used. Theres footage of numerous missiles penetrating Israeli defences and exploding on the ground and Israel did initially claim 99% effectiveness the first time before a day or two later revealing that several ballistic missiles got through and damaged one of their air bases.

Only fatality reported so far was debris from an intercepted missile falling on the West Bank.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1841222293831500070
View: https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1841222293831500070

Currently OSINT have triangulated at least ten hits as landing on Ten Hof as well as hits to Nevatim airbase

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841214173264691513
View: https://x.com/mintelworld/status/1841214173264691513


https://twitter.com/x/status/1841206275050479719
View: https://x.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1841206275050479719

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841196373925929247
View: https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1841196373925929247



US reports the USS Cole and USS Bulkley fired 12 SM3 interceptors.
 
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

To carry out the planned V-1 "flying bomb" attacks on the United Kingdom, Germany built a number of military installations including launching sites and depots. Some of the installations were huge concrete fortifications.

The Allies became aware of the sites at an early stage and carried out numerous bombing raids to destroy them before they came into use.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Oh, Iran, you do NOT want to start this party...
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Iran is going to regret this idiotic bout of belligerence and it's a sure bet that the Israeli airforce will soon be targeting the factories that make Iran's missiles, no doubt using their F-15Is, F-16Is and F-35Is.

Scott Kenny said:
You'd better pray the US can convince Israel to NOT destroy your leadership.
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Probably futile, the Israelis have clearly had enough of the antics of Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza Strip. Israel has already successfully eliminated Hezbollah's leader and they no doubt are eyeing Iran's leadership.

On another note I wonder if there's going to be another round of Iranian drone, cruise and ballistic missile strikes or have they emptied out their current stock of munitions?
 
NMaude said:
Probably futile, the Israelis have clearly had enough of the antics of Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza Strip. Israel has already successfully eliminated Hezbollah's leader and they no doubt are eyeing Iran's leadership.
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And somehow Iran's ambassador got one of those beepers that had been sold to Hezbollah...

But we're not talking about that. (insert angel emoji)


NMaude said:
On another note I wonder if there's going to be another round of Iranian drone, cruise and ballistic missile strikes or have they emptied out their current stock of munitions?
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I can't see the people in charge of even the Revolutionary Guard shooting off all their missiles in one event.
 
Josh_TN said:
Now that Hez is already fully engaged, it is hard to imagine what Israel has to lose. I think this is going to be a week for the history books.
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Oh, I fully expect Israel to go hunting, and take out all the local troublemakers. The metaphor I'd like to use I'm borrowing from Michael Z. Williamson, something about flushing so much shit that it clogs the pipes.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Oh, Iran, you do NOT want to start this party...

You'd better pray the US can convince Israel to NOT destroy your leadership.
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Given what we saw, they most certainly can play this party.

And, be it out of fear or of respect to IHL it matters little. As of now, at least in regards to those strikes, they seem to be the only party in conflict worthy of respect.

I.e. they active avoid harming civilians (to the level best-planned USAF operations never could), much less intentionally going for civilian disruption and mass displacement (He's), or just outright warcrime cults(Hamas and Israel).
 
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Ainen said:
Given what we saw, they most certainly can play this party.

And, be it out of fear or of respect to IHL it matters little. As of now, at least in regards to those strikes, they seem to be the only party in conflict worthy of respect.

I.e. they active avoid harming civilians (to the level best-planned USAF operations never could), much less intentionally going for civilian disruption and mass displacement (He's), or just outright warcrime cults(Hamas and Israel).
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I must be misreading this.

Are you seriously saying the Iranians are some humanitarian act of God that try to avoid targeting civilians? Dude, THEY PAY HAMAS, HEZBOLLAH, the Houthis, and I don't know how many others.

You'd better pray that Israel isn't fed up enough to start throwing cans of Instant Sunshine around.
 
Scott Kenny said:
I must be misreading this.

Are you seriously saying the Iranians are some humanitarian act of God that try to avoid targeting civilians? Dude, THEY PAY HAMAS, HEZBOLLAH, the Houthis, and I don't know how many others.

You'd better pray that Israel isn't fed up enough to start throwing cans of Instant Sunshine around.
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Still. When they shoot, they do avoid civilians - and they do it spectacularly successfully.
I wonder what's hard to see here.

And it is a rather incredible example that old dream of precision warfare is in fact achievable. Problem is not in technology.
 
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Archibald said:
At least it makes for cool fireworks. Otherwise: I don't care anymore, that part of the world is forever fucked up, AFAIK they can all go to hell.
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Nah, I said it.
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Could you please tell me why it is forever fucked up, and who fucked it up (if accountability is not acceptable, then at least tell me who catalyzed it)?
 
Does anyone know what interceptors were used?

The purple blossoms look exoatmospheric, so... Arrow?
Showery things look endoatmospheric, so David's Sling?
Some videos seem to show very low altitude explosions - ?Iron Dome, or more David's Sling?

Iron Dome is sure as heck not optimized for MRBM fire, but given the low interceptor cost, you might as well expend a few against incoming, especially against missiles ignored by the higher tiers of the air defense system?
It seems that the Israelis would have had to prioritize their ABMs for this massed strike - there's not necessarily a point in intercepting missiles bound for hardened aircraft shelters and runways that are relatively easy to fix, or urban areas benefitting from warning and adequate shelter, and Israel does not have that many Arrow missiles. There would seem to be incentive to "pick your battles" so to speak, and conserve firepower for the Big One.
 
snne said:
Could you please tell me why it is forever fucked up, and who fucked it up (if accountability is not acceptable, then at least tell me who catalyzed it)?
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Objectively, the ones who fucked it up are the Liar of Arabia and the British Foreign Office during WW1, because they promised every Arab tribe Jerusalem if they'd fight against the Ottoman Empire.
 
Ainen said:
Still. When they shoot, they do avoid civilians - and they do it spectacularly successfully.
I wonder what's hard to see here.

And it is a rather incredible example that old dream of precision warfare is in fact achievable. Problem is not in technology.
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They don't mind when their pawns do it but when they themselves take action against Israel, they've always avoided hurting civilians and soldiers so far.
 
If it is true these particular missiles got close to Mossad's HQ...might it have been surrounded by individual actors doing an "X marks the spot" with laser pointers with accuracy suffering due to nozzle imperfections?

I also seem to remember Baka bomb type manned V-1s floated...some talk about Iran having a Mercury/MISS deal... worrisome.

It might not be too hard to find an injured Hez or civilian loyalist who lost everything willing to do a suicide flight...

Parade
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0VJk1-CZJ6o
 
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publiusr said:
If it is true these particular missiles got close to Mossad's HQ...might it have been surrounded by individual actors doing an "X marks the spot" with laser pointers with accuracy suffering due to nozzle imperfections?
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Unlikely, though possible. It'd be easier to have someone get GPS coordinates of the HQ, or their GPS coordinates and an offset.
 
publiusr said:
If it is true these particular missiles got close to Mossad's HQ...might it have been surrounded by individual actors doing an "X marks the spot" with laser pointers with accuracy suffering due to nozzle imperfections?
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Highy unlikely. If the missiles were guided by laser designators on ground, their pattern would be MUCH tighter.


publiusr said:
It might not be too hard to find an injured Hez or civilian loyalist who lost everything willing to do a suicide flight...
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It's absurd. Just imagine the mass and space considerations of fitting the pilot cabin inside relatively small ballistic missile.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Are you seriously saying the Iranians are some humanitarian act of God that try to avoid targeting civilians? Dude, THEY PAY HAMAS, HEZBOLLAH, the Houthis, and I don't know how many others.
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Nah, they just didn't want to escalate things TOO FAR. Do not forget, that Iran was a target of terror strikes by Iraq in 1980s, and understood such things rather well.
 
The Salman solid motors were talked about for a space mission... suborbital.
 
NMaude said:
On another note I wonder if there's going to be another round of Iranian drone, cruise and ballistic missile strikes or have they emptied out their current stock of munitions?
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They spend about 200 ballistic missiles. Which, according to different approximaion, is about 1/5 to 1/15 of their total stockpile. Presumably, mainly the older models were launched.
 
snne said:
They don't mind when their pawns do it but when they themselves take action against Israel, they've always avoided hurting civilians and soldiers so far.
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Wiki article on the 2012 Iranian plot in Thailand "The explosion blew off part of the roof of the structure. The men then fled the house. Moradi, who was injured and bloodied, attempted to flag down a taxi. When the driver, seeing his state, refused to take him, he threw a grenade at the taxi. "
 

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