The Great Turkey Shoot over Jordan: the story of the Iranian Drone and Missile attack against Israel and how it was defeated

chimeric oncogene said:
Does anyone know what interceptors were used?

The purple blossoms look exoatmospheric, so... Arrow?
Showery things look endoatmospheric, so David's Sling?
Some videos seem to show very low altitude explosions - ?Iron Dome, or more David's Sling?

Iron Dome is sure as heck not optimized for MRBM fire, but given the low interceptor cost, you might as well expend a few against incoming, especially against missiles ignored by the higher tiers of the air defense system?
It seems that the Israelis would have had to prioritize their ABMs for this massed strike - there's not necessarily a point in intercepting missiles bound for hardened aircraft shelters and runways that are relatively easy to fix, or urban areas benefitting from warning and adequate shelter, and Israel does not have that many Arrow missiles. There would seem to be incentive to "pick your battles" so to speak, and conserve firepower for the Big One.
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Iron Dome can't even handle TBMs, let alone proper theatre ballistic missiles Iran used on True Promise 2. It's outside the equation this time around.

So it's either David' Sling (Stunner) or Arrow, linked to Green Pine EW radar. They've unfortunately mothballed all of their Patriots a few months ago after the first Operation True Promise, so I think they might regret that decision. Though most sources I find say that those Israeli Patriots are 104D variants that can't use GEM-T, so maybe not so much. This also lines up with various sources claiming that Patriot wasn't really effective. Though there are other sources that say Israel did indeed use GEM-T missiles while they operated Patriot batteries, (which must mean they've upgrade their systems to E standard at some point?) so there definitely are conflicting information around.

Apart from Israel's own BMD assets, USN DDGs shot down a few missiles with around a dozen SM-3s. I think it checks out, but considering how many SM-3s a single DDG carries around, that probably means a sizeable portion of SM-3s deployed on 5th fleet boats have been used this week.
 
edwest4 said:
What is the designation for the Iranian ballistic missiles? What is the range? What warhead type?
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This thread has a good breakdown of the known types that were used, Iranian state media put out some footage of the launches. Impossible to say if this includes all types that were used, but it's probably close. Take the capabilities of all systems with a grain of salt, but info is scarce enough that you don't have really much choice.

I'll summarize to save the clicks: Emad, Ghadr-F/H (with MARV), Kheybar-Shekan 2, and an unknown missile that may have been the hypersonic Fattah-1, or a regular Kheybar-Shekan. Hard to distinguish the two as they use a common booster.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841249748574970047
View: https://x.com/AmirIGM/status/1841249748574970047
 
Dilandu said:
Nah, they just didn't want to escalate things TOO FAR. Do not forget, that Iran was a target of terror strikes by Iraq in 1980s, and understood such things rather well.
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Again, Respondeat Superior.

The Iranian government is responsible for the actions of those they employ. Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, etc ad nauseam are all employees of the Iranian government.
 
Scott Kenny said:
The Iranian government is responsible for the actions of those they employ. Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, etc ad nauseam are all employees of the Iranian government.
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Which one? Iran have two parallel government; religious one and secular one. The secular one seems to not be even informed until right before the attack.
 
Hm. The first post-strike satellite photos of Nevatim airbase. Looks like two hits:
IMG_20241003_091732_184.jpg IMG_20241003_091732_451.jpg * First hit - hangar from theright row. One building destroyed, the one near damaged.
* Second hit - white crater in the runaway just below the center of image (upper one)

Looks like Iranian missiles are fairly accurate, and the two that penetrated defenses hit where they supposed to.
 
Scott Kenny said:
The religious one runs the country.
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Well, the recent events indicates, that their grip may be seriously slipping. Do not forget, that their head honcho is 85 years old and quite ill. He hardly looks as someone who is willing - and capable - to protect his power. And their new president seems to be quite interested in taking as much power as he could from religious authorities.
 
Dilandu said:
Well, the recent events indicates, that their grip may be seriously slipping. Do not forget, that their head honcho is 85 years old and quite ill. He hardly looks as someone who is willing - and capable - to protect his power. And their new president seems to be quite interested in taking as much power as he could from religious authorities.
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The secular president of Iran needs to dismantle the Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to actually have power.
 
Scott Kenny said:
The secular president of Iran needs to dismantle the Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to actually have power.
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Considering that he have Republican Military on his side - and also considering that IRGC is widely considered to be turning into "comfy place with good pay and lots of shiny medals" for a long time - it may not be paricularly hard.
 
Dilandu said:
Well, the recent events indicates, that their grip may be seriously slipping. Do not forget, that their head honcho is 85 years old and quite ill.
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Scott Kenny said:
The secular president of Iran needs to dismantle the Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to actually have power.
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The only thing keeping the Shiite fanatics in charge running Iran's theocracy is the Revolutionary Guard, you find a way to neutralise them and Iran's regular military will move very quickly to remove the 10,000 or so Mullahs running (And terrorising) Iran and when that happens there WILL be hell to pay.
 
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It does not show whole airbase, question is how rest looks and yet for satellite images of other airbase that was hit.

Another question of resolution as 30cm is limit for commercial satellite imagery and American government satellites can do 10cm per pixel/dot. Plausible some damage will not show up when of very small size such as 1cm or less, though such can be very destructive if for example electronic components are hit. For commercial satellite imagery it may not even show small craters from cluster munitions.

For all we know some of those planes could be riddled with fragments.
 
An interesting read about Iran military forces.

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

The Mess of Russo-Iranian Arms Deals, Part 1

Hello everybody!
xxtomcooperxx.substack.com xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

The reality is that each branch of Iran military has its own supporter among the mullahs: the usual funding vs political backers - turf war.

The winners
- paramilitary forces inside and outside Iran
- missiles
- the nuclear program

The losers
-the air force
-the navy

However, this does not mean that Khamenei is ruling the country as an all-mighty autocrat. His power depends on support from dozens of rival ‘interest groups’, most of which are a part of or at least associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC, also ‘Pasdaran’). Confronted with the rising power of the cliques (‘cliques’ or even ‘gangs’ would be a better descriptions, because most of these are endemically corrupt, too), Khamenei sought a solution in letting the various of them take over different segments of the Iranian economy. And so, one of cliques established itself in control over the banks and insurances, another over the judiciary, yet another over the construction industry, then several over the real estate sector — and another one in control of the defence sector. For example, the gang to which the former President of Iran, Ahmadinejad, belonged, used to control banks and insurances… until its members fell in disgrace and were then (conveniently) prosecuted for corruption…

Point is: whenever there is some major decision to make in Tehran, each of these cliques is doing its utmost to have its fingers in the game, and each is pulling in own direction. If nothing else works, it sends ‘own’ units of the IRGC to ‘sort out the problem’: and, because it’s ‘acting in the name of the God’, the IRGC is above all the laws. It’s meanwhile powerful enough to remove Khamenei ‘in a matter of minutes’, if necessary.

Unsurprising result is a completely dysfunctional chain of command and totally unworkable decision-making processes. Officially, Iran is ruled by an official government and parliament, but the final say depends on agreements between different of cliques. Even the ‘Supreme Leader’ has to bow to their wishes.
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And I thought Congress arm-twisting NASA and ramming SLS into their lunar program for aerospace jobs, was bad...
 
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BullpupRafale said:
View attachment 742796
It does not show whole airbase, question is how rest looks and yet for satellite images of other airbase that was hit.

Another question of resolution as 30cm is limit for commercial satellite imagery and American government satellites can do 10cm per pixel/dot. Plausible some damage will not show up when of very small size such as 1cm or less, though such can be very destructive if for example electronic components are hit. For commercial satellite imagery it may not even show small craters from cluster munitions.

For all we know some of those planes could be riddled with fragments.
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This is what I found so far ...

1727960181032.png
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BullpupRafale said:
Another question of resolution as 30cm is limit for commercial satellite imagery and American government satellites can do 10cm per pixel/dot. Plausible some damage will not show up when of very small size such as 1cm or less, though such can be very destructive if for example electronic components are hit. For commercial satellite imagery it may not even show small craters from cluster munitions.

For all we know some of those planes could be riddled with fragments.
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achievement-2.png
 
BullpupRafale said:
It does not show whole airbase, question is how rest looks and yet for satellite images of other airbase that was hit.

Another question of resolution as 30cm is limit for commercial satellite imagery and American government satellites can do 10cm per pixel/dot. Plausible some damage will not show up when of very small size such as 1cm or less, though such can be very destructive if for example electronic components are hit. For commercial satellite imagery it may not even show small craters from cluster munitions.

For all we know some of those planes could be riddled with fragments.
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If a plane was riddled with fragments, you can also bet it burned. Which would leave a nice scorch mark on the tarmac, if nothing else.
 
During the early hours of Saturday 26th of October, Israel Air force stroke back all across Iran for hours targeting missiles installations and IADS pre-dawn:

https://apnews.com/article/israel-p...s-10-25-2024-0920f63542d158ad5999c481e421da00

I am amazed by the strikes duration suggesting, either, a continued presence of supporting a/c and stream of attacking fighters taking off from Israel or a multiple shuttle flights strategy with strike package accomplishing multiple rotations in the process.

Edit:
Later released details would mention 3 waves of attacking aircrafts.
 
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