The Great Turkey Shoot over Jordan: the story of the Iranian Drone and Missile attack against Israel and how it was defeated

In my opinion, the side that merely reacts to the enemy's initiatives is the one that loses the war. V-1 missiles only stopped falling in London when Allied troops conquered launch pads in France and Holland. The intervention of the British fighters was epic but not decisive.
 
Justo Miranda said:
In my opinion, the side that merely reacts to the enemy's initiatives is the one that loses the war. V-1 missiles only stopped falling in London when Allied troops conquered launch pads in France and Holland. The intervention of the British fighters was epic but not decisive.
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Yes, it will be ... interesting to see what the Israeli response is. I suspect it will be swift in coming.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Yes, it will be ... interesting to see what the Israeli response is. I suspect it will be swift in coming.
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Reportedly it was originally planned for Monday but has been postponed twice, partly due to operational reasons and partly due to everyone telling them not to escalate. The IAEA warned them not to hit nuclear facilities (which is the action they had likely elected to take) as it could cause a nuclear disaster and the US told them they wouldn't provide logistical support for a retaliation. The Israelis don't presently have any aerial tankers though they have 4 on order.
 
The IAF operates around a half dozen 707 boom equipped tankers and a somewhat larger number of C-130 probe/drogue type tankers, last time I looked it up. I doubt that has changed. The problem with strikes against Iran is that said tankers would have to operate in some other country's airspace, which would require their cooperation or forced compliance, as well as being quite visible on most any air traffic control radar barring a rather elaborate ruse or use of force against a very wide area.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Yes, it will be ... interesting to see what the Israeli response is. I suspect it will be swift in coming.
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I don't think we'll be allowed to talk about the actual war, but in the case of 1944 the response of the Germans was to retreat to the other side of the Rhine River and blow up the bridges.
 
Apparently the 707's arent serviceable/compatible with F-35's so they have four KC-46A on order to replace them at a cost of $927m. They keep borrowing US tankers during training flights with the last exercise in Nevada they lent their 707's to the US to supply their aircraft in return for borrowing KC-46 to refuel their own F-35i's. In the last exercise in Europe the 707's resupplied US F-15 and Israeli F-16i while the US KC-135 supplied the F-35i.
 
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WatcherZero said:
Apparently the 707's arent serviceable/compatible with F-35's so they have four KC-46A on order to replace them at a cost of $927m. They keep borrowing US tankers during training flights with the last exercise in Nevada they lent their 707's to the US to supply their aircraft in return for borrowing KC-46 to refuel their own F-35i's. In the last exercise in Europe the 707's resupplied US F-15 and Israeli F-16i while the US KC-135 supplied the F-35i.
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Do you have a source? It is hard to imagine why a boom equipped tanker would be incompatible with any USAF product.
 
Omega received certification in September 2019 after 707 type trials, they use drogues (they have sets of both for their tankers to serve different aircraft types) unlike Israel which uses booms.
Looking into it more as far back as at least 2021 Israel didn't think the 707 can provide refuelling for strike missions, only being good for combat air patrols over Israel due to the 707's range, capacity, age, and inability to take on fuel itself so they did a parallel track of pursuing the KC-46 and developing drop tanks for their F-35's.

www.twz.com

Israel's Request To Speed Delivery Of KC-46 Tankers Critical For Striking Iran Denied

The KC-46As would go a long way to bolstering Israel's already small and dwindling tanker fleet.
www.twz.com www.twz.com
 
WatcherZero said:
Omega received certification in September 2019 after 707 type trials, they use drogues (they have sets of both for their tankers to serve different aircraft types) unlike Israel which uses booms.
Looking into it more as far back as at least 2021 Israel didn't think the 707 can provide refuelling for strike missions, only being good for combat air patrols over Israel due to the 707's range, capacity, age, and inability to take on fuel itself so they did a parallel track of pursuing the KC-46 and developing drop tanks for their F-35's.

www.twz.com

Israel's Request To Speed Delivery Of KC-46 Tankers Critical For Striking Iran Denied

The KC-46As would go a long way to bolstering Israel's already small and dwindling tanker fleet.
www.twz.com www.twz.com
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Found some reports suggesting that the Raam tankers were grounded sometime in 2021.

m.jpost.com

US rejects Israeli request for tanker aircraft as Iran plans advance

The US has reportedly rejected an Israeli request to fast-track the delivery of two tanker aircraft.
m.jpost.com m.jpost.com
 
WatcherZero said:
Omega received certification in September 2019 after 707 type trials, they use drogues (they have sets of both for their tankers to serve different aircraft types) unlike Israel which uses booms.
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Sure. But it's a clue that there's no aerodynamic reason preventing Israel from refueling their F-35As with their 707s should they really need it. I mean the boom will fit. :D

WatcherZero said:
Looking into it more as far back as at least 2021 Israel didn't think the 707 can provide refuelling for strike missions, only being good for combat air patrols over Israel due to the 707's range, capacity, age, and inability to take on fuel itself so they did a parallel track of pursuing the KC-46 and developing drop tanks for their F-35's.
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OK, so the 707 is irrelevant then.

The drop tanks could be ready by now if the timeline mentioned in this article held. It says could be ready in 2 years, article is from April 2021.
 
Grey Havoc said:
thehill.com

Russia, Iran turning Israel and Ukraine into ‘battlefield laboratories,’ experts say

Russia and Iran are using Ukraine and Israel as “battlefield laboratories” to probe at Western military vulnerabilities, experts told a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee Wednesday. “Together…
thehill.com thehill.com
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If, after generating so much horror, they have not managed to raise the price of oil, they will have murdered many innocent people for nothing. The 1973 manual is definitely outdated.
 
@Archibald : IMOHO it would be ridiculous and turn Israel gov as another fist waving autocratic regime that threatens and launch ballistic missiles on every occasion.

Those things are meant to stay underground.

But we are OT. This thread is for the 14th of April operations.
 
With no blessing from US, any normal strikes will not be possible. Sending agents over will be a more acceptable choice.
 
SK2 said:
With no blessing from US, any normal strikes will not be possible. Sending agents over will be a more acceptable choice.
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Lets not forget that Iran probably has acess to real time intel, given by Russian recon planes and satellites, which means, any missile or combat aircraft leaving Israel territory, will be known by Iran, who will take measures to counter them.
 
pedrospe said:
Lets not forget that Iran probably has acess to real time intel, given by Russian recon planes and satellites, which means, any missile or combat aircraft leaving Israel territory, will be known by Iran, who will take measures to counter them.
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Russia’s available space and air assets are marginal, but presumably the any radars in Syria, to include a single Syrian S300 system and a Russian S400 system, could see IDF aircraft at higher altitudes.
 
Early days, reports of 3 armed drones and Iran is saying they were launched from Iraq. US says no manned aircraft involved, nuclear facilities weren't targeted and the US was given 24-36 hours notice by Israel. Australia has told its citizens to get out of Israel immediately.
 
Archibald said:
It's mind-blowing how Middle-East can push the boundaries of the word clusterf*ck, one crisis after another. That place is really hopeless.
Any idea what Israel used to strike ? "unmanned" nowadays can mean drone, cruise missile or ballistic missile. Or all three together.
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CBS is reporting "a missile".
 
 
Grey Havoc said:
breakingdefense.com

Iran says it shot down Israel's attack. Here’s what air defense systems it might have used. - Breaking Defense

Tehran has been increasingly public about its air defense capabilities, including showing off models of systems at a recent international defense expo.
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com
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In my opinion, Israel seems more interested in identifying enemy leaders than their defense systems. Perhaps the recent attack was actually a top-level intelligence operation to identify the location of command centers, the frequencies of their communication systems, and even the voice of high-ranking officers. That information could be a good exchange item to improve your international relations.
 
Its hard to tell what if anything Israel hit, theres videos of some large explosions but no craters or scorch marks on sat imagery of the region to indicate damage on the ground. Theres some FIRMS of heat blooms that match occupied defilade positions of an S300 battery defending the area seen in images a fortnight earlier that some people are saying is evidence the S300 battery itself was the target, though the positions are empty with no vehicles, debris or scorches there in sat recon images the following morning, so the FIRMS might have been seeing launches and the erectors have since driven off to be reloaded.
 
It is quite weird indeed. Why on Earth would have Israel lobbed just three F-16's ALBMs at this corner of Iran ? Ok, this is the base of the Tomcats but I'm not sure these planes are the biggest threat to Israel nowadays.

Something is wrong there. I mean, every other strikes of this kind in IDF/AF history (Osirak, Tunis, Syria) were raw, brute efficiency and well defined targets - properly demolished.

But this raid looks like three small missiles lobbed at a remote corner of the iranian desert... WDF ? did they intend to kill camels or desert rats ?
 
Archibald said:
It is quite weird indeed. Why on Earth would have Israel lobbed just three F-16's ALBMs at this corner of Iran ? Ok, this is the base of the Tomcats but I'm not sure these planes are the biggest threat to Israel nowadays.

Something is wrong there. I mean, every other strikes of this kind in IDF/AF history (Osirak, Tunis, Syria) were raw, brute efficiency and well defined targets - properly demolished.

But this raid looks like three small missiles lobbed at a remote corner of the iranian desert... WDF ? did they intend to kill camels or desert rats ?
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The target seems to be an air defense site near the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. The message seems pretty clear -- "We could have hit Natanz itself but decided not to escalate things."
 
Yeah but as I said, the air defence site doesn't appear to show any damage after the attack. So either they failed to penetrate the SAM batteries defences or missed it. It contrasts with the Nevatim airbase that Israel also intially denied substantially hit, despite the visible craters and scorch marks on sat imagery. Initially releasing the image of a small crater in a disused runway and saying 'that was the extent of the damage' before later revealing more extensive damage. (Image 1 then 2)

WhatsApp_Image_2024-04-14_at_20.03.02_1.jpeg


https://twitter.com/x/status/1779930379291333027
View: https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1779930379291333027?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1779930379291333027%7Ctwgr%5Ea0e859b33b2b07c600518fdce5327a67806e1ac1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.timesofisrael.com%2Fliveblog_entry%2Fidf-says-air-base-hit-in-iran-attack-running-as-usual%2F
 
I'm leaning more towards a combination attack. "Yes, we can reach Natanz. We didn't, because we didn't want to escalate." plus "Now we know where your C&C nodes are, as well as the voices of your senior staff."
 
WatcherZero said:
So quick maths,
170 drones and 30 cruise missiles, all except 5 cruise missiles were intercepted by aircraft before they reached Israel
115-130 ballistic missiles launched "50% failed at launch or in flight and intercepts weren't attempted" so roughly 58-65 effective weapons. US said they destroyed 1 ballistic missile and 7 drones on the ground before they launched. 1 was intercepted by the Patriot battery at Erbil and 6 by offshore US ships. So Israeli defences left to contend with between 50-57 ballistic missiles. 9 Ballistic missiles got through the defences with 4 striking Negev base and 5 striking Nevatim airbase. So thats an Israeli intercept rate of the Ballistic missiles of between 82% - 84.2% and a combined US/Israeli intercept rate of 85.5% - 86%. (plus the 5 cruise missiles intercepted).

Damage was fairly minimal, one unused runway was cratered, several empty storage buildings were destroyed and one C-130 transport was damaged.
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LOL perhaps I should do OSINT. Maariv says the ballistic interception rate was 84%.

www.maariv.co.il

"אתרים נפגעו": טענות על הנזק שגרמה המתקפה האיראנית בישראל

אור פיאלקוב, חוקר מלחמות ישראל וטרור, הציג בשיחה עם "מעריב" טענות שונות שעלו ברשת בנוגע להיקף הנזק לישראל ביום המתקפה, ונתן פרטים נוספים על פגיעות הטילים במטרות ישראליות
www.maariv.co.il
 

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