Trillion Dollar Trainwreck: How the F-35 Hollowed out the US Air Force by Bill Sweetman

Look at how much the B-58 costs and how many were procured vs the B-2 or now B-21. Costs and development time have climbed astronomically, and this is all unavoidable because the complexity to get the capability has shot up.
 
Look at how much the B-58 costs and how many were procured vs the B-2 or now B-21. Costs and development time have climbed astronomically, and this is all unavoidable because the complexity to get the capability has shot up.

Really? I don't think so. Look at how many B-2s were built. A handful, along with parts for a handful more. Costs go down based on an increase in units. When you only build 21, it's more expensive.
 
Of course volume lowers costs but just how are you going to achieve enough volume to return to 1950s unit pricing?

While software and the like has allowed relative design costs to come down this has been countered by increased complexity. And while automation has lowered the costs of some operations the raw material, labor and energy costs have all stayed about the same or gone up.
 
You think this is just down to volume?
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Look at the timeline. It's not just about statistics. The Soviet Union collapses in the early 1990s. What happens to aircraft manufacturers? They shrink. Fewer programs and fewer aircraft. Investors begin to meddle. Mergers and acquisitions. Those who designed aircraft in the 1950s and 1960s retire. Less competition. The threat environment goes down.
 
You think this is just down to volume?
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Largely yes. How unit cost is calculated changed (in the 80s?). Unit cost is the entire expected cost of the program over its lifetime, including R&D, divided by number of aircraft. Reduce the number of aircraft and the unit cost goes up.
 
Lots of good stuff here not just for this thread but for others. Germane to this thread: Build more bombers, 4th gen fighters as vulnerable as 5th gen on the ground, where they will be attacked. CSIS Study
 
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Of course volume lowers costs but just how are you going to achieve enough volume to return to 1950s unit pricing?

While software and the like has allowed relative design costs to come down this has been countered by increased complexity. And while automation has lowered the costs of some operations the raw material, labor and energy costs have all stayed about the same or gone up.
I think you bring up a very good point. However I think the counter argument to that is twofold. First while the price per unit of an early jet age plane may have been low, the lifespan of that aircraft as being the premier frontline was also quite low. So while cost may increase, each development dollar in a modern aircraft tends to be amortized over a longer number of years. Second, while the cost of aircraft rises, so does capability. What once required fleets of bombers dropping dumb bombs can now be done with small squadrons of fighters carrying smart weapons. I think it was Ben Rich in his Skunkworks books that remarked about how the F-117 could go where a fleet of bombers, escorts, ECM aircraft and fuel tankers would have been required to go. This isn't to say that the F-35 is a wonder weapon, it is just one part of a larger ecosystem, but that increasing costs don't necessarily have to be paired with a similar volume.

To put it in the historical perspective, if you amortize the cost of the B-36 program and the B-41 bomb over the number units produced you are going to get a very high cost per unit ratio. But if you compare that with the number of B-29s dropping conventional bombs that would be necessary to equal 25 megatons worth of damage, you need alotta B-29s. And those B-29s need crews, which need support staff, which need housing, etc. etc.
 
I'll never forget watching this great program from Nova, & in a classic case of "when someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time", well, yeah. #Timestamped

View: https://youtu.be/Bbe6vRwTmg8?t=2298

Boeing's design was rather odd, sure, & idk if it was on the level of the current F-35 from an rcs standpoint, although that would be my assumption, but if the government really wanted to save money, why not scrap the project, early, & choose The YF-23 for the same role, instead? At least all of the R&D was already done & the plane had been tested, so in theory, production could have commenced far sooner. I think.

On another front, whatever happened to this guy? #Timestamped

View: https://youtu.be/Bbe6vRwTmg8?t=4522
 
Boeing's design was rather odd, sure, & idk if it was on the level of the current F-35 from an rcs standpoint, although that would be my assumption, but if the government really wanted to save money, why not scrap the project, early, & choose The YF-23 for the same role, instead? At least all of the R&D was already done & the plane had been tested, so in theory, production could have commenced far sooner. I think.

Kinda a major nitpick here. None of the modern 5th generation aircraft were "Tested" prior to being ordered into production in the United States. The YF-22 and YF-23 neither bare more than a passing resemblance to the ACTUAL F-22 and what was to be the actual F-23. They were not prototypes, nor were they pathfinder aircraft. They were proof of concept aircraft to showcase ONE or TWO aspects of what would be the final aircraft. The Fact that Lockheed poured all of their free cash into the YF-22 airframe to raise the G-Limit above specified, is in many peoples mind the ONLY reason it won over the Northrop F-23 (well only beyond the obvious B-2 contract)

Lets not even talk about how the F-24 *cough* X-35 Changed. And the Boeing X-32? The production version was to have a horizontal tail and a completely new wing in addition to additional length.

In short comparing the ProofOfConcept aircraft to the REAL aircraft is pointless. But to your original point, the F-23 was not tested at all and thus would cost as much as procuring the F-35 excluding S/VTOL.

Of course, everyone is also seeming to forget that the QE CVVs were designed and originally ordered with 2 catapults for CATOBAR operations so at least the RN would have a viable carrier if F-35B failed. Catapults were cut before the first steel was cut on QE when F-35B was insured to be built.
 
Kinda a major nitpick here. None of the modern 5th generation aircraft were "Tested" prior to being ordered into production in the United States. The YF-22 and YF-23 neither bare more than a passing resemblance to the ACTUAL F-22 and what was to be the actual F-23. They were not prototypes, nor were they pathfinder aircraft. They were proof of concept aircraft to showcase ONE or TWO aspects of what would be the final aircraft. The Fact that Lockheed poured all of their free cash into the YF-22 airframe to raise the G-Limit above specified, is in many peoples mind the ONLY reason it won over the Northrop F-23 (well only beyond the obvious B-2 contract)

Lets not even talk about how the F-24 *cough* X-35 Changed. And the Boeing X-32? The production version was to have a horizontal tail and a completely new wing in addition to additional length.

In short comparing the ProofOfConcept aircraft to the REAL aircraft is pointless. But to your original point, the F-23 was not tested at all and thus would cost as much as procuring the F-35 excluding S/VTOL.

Of course, everyone is also seeming to forget that the QE CVVs were designed and originally ordered with 2 catapults for CATOBAR operations so at least the RN would have a viable carrier if F-35B failed. Catapults were cut before the first steel was cut on QE when F-35B was insured to be built.
Okay, but overall, we still would not have been starting from scratch, which is always much more expensive & time-consuming. Does that make any sense?
 
Okay, but overall, we still would not have been starting from scratch, which is always much more expensive & time-consuming. Does that make any sense?
No.
The YF-23 was incapable of doing VSTOL or taking off/landing from/on a carrier, in other words it was entirely incapable of meeting the JSF program specifications, on top of that it was a huge, twin engined, bloody expensive aircraft and one that had lost the ATF competition to LM´s YF-22 at that.
If the JSF program got scraped because the chaps at the Pentagon prefered a land CTOL only, big, twin engined, extremely expensive, strike fighter instead... then the Raptor was already in service with the USAF.
 
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What do you think of Elon's take on the stupidity of building manned combat aircraft?

The Peter principle, except instead of Elon being promoted one level above his competence - he’s one field (or more) outside his competence.

Recently, on X, he’s promoted the suggestion that the USN’s salvation is 10,000 naval drones, rather than traditional naval combatants.

That’s moronic.

I’ve recently taken to referring to those who are smart - but operating outside their competence - as “functional morons”.

Elon is one on defence - but I’m one too… when I’m opining on sports. ;)
 
Of course volume lowers costs but just how are you going to achieve enough volume to return to 1950s unit pricing?
Not saying it's working as advertised, but that line of thinking was certainly one of the motivations behind multinational aerospace efforts.
 
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What do you think of Elon's take on the stupidity of building manned combat aircraft?

Short-sighted. It implies the enemy - whoever that might be - will stop producing manned combat aircraft and just switch to drones. One of the key ways to defeat your enemy is to keep him off balance, A switch to 100% drones makes no sense militarily. Even if Elon can put robot intelligence on each one, robots don't know or understand human nature.
 
Elon is like a hothouse tomato grown in isolation. He's surrounded by too many influences. He is a reasonable guy but can be drawn off course quickly unless he identifies and sticks with good, calm role models.
 
If Colby gets confirmed then he might explain it to him. But if his nomination fails, then only God can help the DoD.
Wanted Bridge over Hegseth, but it might actually work better this way. Elbridge works quietly while Hegseth takes the slings and arrows shaking things from the top. If they marshalled enough support for Hegseth to get him confirmed, Elbridge shouldn't be a problem. He pushes for practical, rational things, and while Congress is neither, they do like industry and jobs in their districts/states.
 
Short-sighted. It implies the enemy - whoever that might be - will stop producing manned combat aircraft and just switch to drones.
Same with the anti-carrier crowd. Hell, apparently China has TWO carriers under construction at the moment.
 
I was thinking the same. Hopefully someone gets him up to speed. He seems reasonable when shown evidence.
I think he's wrong, but directionally correct. I think F-35 stays because it is too difficult to unravel and would affect too many other interested parties.
Directionally, however, we cannot currently produce manned aircraft in a way that makes sense. The procurement process leads to decade long development times, cost overruns, and gold-plating. If they can break that, great: let's build a new, quick and dirty fighter that we can mass produce in number and afford. If not, why are we going farther down that river? If not, we can produce smaller, cheaper, long-range unmanned vehicles that deliver the same effects downrange.
 
Same with the anti-carrier crowd. Hell, apparently China has TWO carriers under construction at the moment.

What are they going to do with them? Traveling at a top speed of ? I am sure dedicated surveillance sees every tank and every ship right now. If the try to invade Taiwan - possible during only two months out of the year - they'll get a call. "We see what you are preparing for so stop it."
 
I think he's wrong, but directionally correct. I think F-35 stays because it is too difficult to unravel and would affect too many other interested parties.
Directionally, however, we cannot currently produce manned aircraft in a way that makes sense. The procurement process leads to decade long development times, cost overruns, and gold-plating. If they can break that, great: let's build a new, quick and dirty fighter that we can mass produce in number and afford. If not, why are we going farther down that river? If not, we can produce smaller, cheaper, long-range unmanned vehicles that deliver the same effects downrange.
We definitely can't be taking 20 years from selection to production. That just doesn't work. I'd prefer incremental updates instead of having everything bleeding edge every time. NGAD has to be, because that's where we are, but an F-35 follow on could be, essentially, a stretched F-35, with a second seat, more powerful 3-stream engine, optimized to control CCAs, and that's about it. Sensors could be later models of existing instead of completely new. And then do a better job of long term planning instead of reversing direction every four years.
 
We definitely can't be taking 20 years from selection to production. That just doesn't work. I'd prefer incremental updates instead of having everything bleeding edge every time. NGAD has to be, because that's where we are, but an F-35 follow on could be, essentially, a stretched F-35, with a second seat, more powerful 3-stream engine, optimized to control CCAs, and that's about it. Sensors could be later models of existing instead of completely new. And then do a better job of long term planning instead of reversing direction every four years.
If we really want to win a major war or conflict (or better to prevent one) a new bleeding edge fighter doesn't do that. And the resources including time that we spend on such a product make conflict more likely, not less.
If they build a new manned fighter it should be quick and dirty. Replace the F-16's and Eagles with something lower signature with high fuel fraction. Use mature systems, preferably already manufactured for other programs. Expand the industrial base. Everything else is just noise right now.
 
What are they going to do with them? Traveling at a top speed of ? I am sure dedicated surveillance sees every tank and every ship right now. If the try to invade Taiwan - possible during only two months out of the year - they'll get a call. "We see what you are preparing for so stop it."
That worked so well in Ukraine.
 
former sec def Chris Miller quote "that piece of ..."

 
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