Michel Van said:
What to hell is going wrong at Lockheed Martin ?!
the prototype X-35 first fly way back in 2000
we are now 2013 and still no full-scale production !
and the produce aircraft have serious problem and Test-pilots consider the F-35 as not a aircraft.
this end gonna as one of most expensive failure in Aerospace History...
Time to revisit something I wrote back at Reply #1437 (updated ever so slightly):
Has the F-35 taken longer to enter full service then originally desired? Well, once again possibly yes. Is this entirely the fault of the companies developing it? Once again I would have to say no. Just look at the history of the program, especially these last few years. The majority of the delays to production numbers (which after all, ultimately drive when squadrons and the like can stand up) have been driven by the customers, especially in terms of sliding production schedule. If you don’t buy enough aircraft, then you can’t enter service fast enough. Trust me, all of the companies involved would very much like to see larger production orders sooner – it does no-one’s balance sheet good to have orders only growing slowly.
There have certainly been no major delays caused by aircraft technical issues (despite what some in the popular press would have you believe!). For instance, there have been no crashes - something that if you look at historic programs (including the F-22) should have occurred by now from just a statistical point of view. That in itself should stand testament to the success with which this program has been run to date.
Sure, some of you will point to some of the various reports that have been released highlighting various technical concerns, however, how many of you have actually even fully read those reports or investigated what the issues are? For one, they were identified when they should have been identified (in development and testing) and in virtually every case, there was already a technical solution at hand. Hardly a cause for concern or for significant delays.
And let’s just take a closer look at just one of those supposed technical problems – the tail hook issue. From what I understand, one of the problems was that the design team tried to re-use the hook design from the Super Hornet with minimal change but have discovered during testing that it requires more specialised designing. If anything, these people should be praised for trying to reduce costs and not "reinvent the wheel". Unfortunately, during testing (which is why you test!!!) they found that sometimes one has to...
Another aspect here that shouldn’t be overlooked, and one that links directly to schedule, has been the extraordinary time taken these last few years to agree each LRIP contract. LRIP4 took almost a year to negotiate and agree a contract. LRIP 5 some 14mths! LRIP 6 still hasn’t been agreed (though to his credit Lt Gen Bogdan is working his team hard to have LRIP6,7 & 8 all finalised this calendar year). Delays such as this flow directly into the production delays – no-one will produce a single aircraft without an agreed order or price for it.
BTW, looking beyond the USA aircraft, many of the apparent delays to partner nation aircraft have been because the partner nations have consistently/collectively not wanted to get ahead of the USA when it comes to introducing these aircraft into service. As a result, whenever the USA slides purchase orders (and thus operational service) the partner nations tend to also automatically slide their service entries and thus aircraft buys. The end result is that the apparent schedule delays are not necessarily the result of the aircraft developers but rather the customers yet again...
Also when looking at development timeframes one needs to keep in mind that the F-35 is not alone in taking a long time. Just look at the development timeframes for some of its contemporaries (using a simple first flight to service entry measure – note however that this is an admittedly crude measure that excludes pre-first flight development which in most cases is considerable. BTW, if you don't like this measure, please suggest another - I will think the basic overall message is the same though.):
- Typhoon: 9 years, 4 months, 8 days
- F-22: 8 years, 3 months, 8 days
- Rafale: 14 years, 5 months
- JAS-39 Gripen: 8 years, 10 months, 23 days
Now given that the F-35 carried out its first flight on 15 December 2006 and it is, as of today, only some 6 years, 2 months, 22 days down the track, I hardly think criticising on schedule is fair! But maybe that’s just me…
Finally, another aspect not to be over looked in all this is the overall effect of the Global Financial Crisis (and related). This cannot be ignored, and IMHO has added a lot of additional scrutiny to the program. If nothing else, because countries’ budgets are hurting and because democratic governments’ policies are often driven by short term populist considerations, programs such as the F-35 are easy targets. What does this mean? Well, to use Australia as an example (something I am very familiar with), the government is facing a very high likelihood of being voted out at the next election (for a variety of reasons). One way they hope to avoid this situation is to be able to paint themselves as good economic managers at the next election. Part of their strategy to do this is to be able to have their budget back in surplus at the next election. And a part of their way of doing this has been to delay the purchase of many of the first RAAF F-35s by a couple of years. This saves them from paying for these aircraft in the short term and thus they are able to exclude this outlay from their budget. However, this delay has nothing what-so-ever to do with the performance of the F-35 itself or even of the ability of the aircraft to be produced to schedule.