shin_getter
ACCESS: Top Secret
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- 1 June 2019
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In ww3, I don't think either side with push their fleet into mass salvo range of ground forces and there generally isn't a good reason to throw fleets at each other in a pitched battle either.I don’t think anyone has any idea what happens when two peer competitors send dozens of anti shipping missiles at a formation. Real life tests are always only a few targets at most. I for one doubt the ability of modern combat systems to track and engage say 50-100 targets while friendly forces are also volleying a hundred defensive missiles and producing more target tracks. Plus perhaps ECM. I don’t think anyone knows what happens in a WWIII level naval engagement.
Surface ships are just extremely fragile and any imperfection in air defense spells disaster. This is unlike ground forces that is robust to attack, where the PGM arsenal of Russia can't shut down the ukrainian airforce, never mind hunting down all the mobile launchers. In combat between near peers, no surface navy can press against ground forces without very unequal losses.
The navy likes to show off exercises where they hid a carrier task force off the Soviet Union. That is neat, but a week of carrier sorties while running all the defenses and misdirection would do nothing against even lightly prepared ground forces, while one instance of mistake or bad luck would result in billions of losses on the other side.
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I think the pacific campaign was very misleading. Japan was not a near peer, it was a much weaker power and significantly due to the defensive advantages of naval warfare and vast distances that the conflict lasted so long. Imagine if Japan had a land connection with the united states, how long does it take to drive armored division through the place if not neutralized with B-17s all over the place?
With the increase of weapon and vehicle ranges, more and more of the earth is covered by ground based forces. Personally I think in western pacific conflict, outside of successful surprise attack, would have the Chinese fleet hiding somewhere in south China sea (assuming surrounding nations are neutral) while the US fleet covering convoy runs to Japan. Surface ships within the central combat area would get spammed missiles from all over the place, as there is numerous land launchers while air forces can mass quickly with inflight refueling and no surface fleet want to be outside of the area of absolute air superiority near their own forces.
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The reasonable point of battle with both sides having near equal combat would be, covering forces for resupply of land forces, where the vulnerability of ships is covered by closer proximity to friendly forces: aka malta convoy battles. I expect the surface navy to always plan to have mass advantage in any engagement, yet still suffer serious losses except in the most lopsided force ratio situations.