A key assumption, though, is that the investment in the Su-57 can jump-start the Checkmate program. But the Su-57 has been in development nearly 15 years already, and
Western analysts estimate that it still won’t be operational before
2027.
It is a misleading way of presenting facts to say the least. The LTS makes sense and is feasible precisely because of the PAK-FA program reviving the Russian industry and more concretely because all the key technologies to the level of the discrete components are already available from the Su-57. This is key for the procurement and operational cost estimations and constitutes the most ambitious proposal for a deeply integrated hi-lo force mix that I know.
To say that the Su-57 is not operational is flat-out lying though, the plane is done with the state tests and serial unit(s) have been already delivered to the VKS. Current status is that serial production is being ramped up, last year one unit was delivered to GLITs and in 2021 4 additional ones were to be delivered, no official confirmation was been issued yet though, just rumours. It is expected to deliver 22 units until 2024. This is very low rate compared to F-35 indeed, but it is also worth questioning whether it makes sense to produce 750 units of a plane that has not yet been cleared for full rate production...
It is relevant to keep in mind that VKs does not have a IOC, LRP or such phases many people are used to from the US MIC. To be done with state tests means the plane is fully operational from a technical point of view, no ifs or buts. A status, if I am not wrong, that F-35 has not yet reached. That there is a further improvement loop with the project Megapolis (incl. second stage engines, cockpick and avionics, weapons, actuators) to be probably coming into the series by end of this decade is to be taken as the subsequent blocks or tranches that Western aircraft also have.
Also to be precise with dates, the Su-57 has been in development for from 2022 to 2019 if I am not wrong. It is not waiting for anything or frozen because of lack of funds.
Russia has struggled to produce
new jet engine models for several years because of sanctions and export restrictions imposed after it annexed Crimea in 2014. The first operational Su-57 will be equipped with the
Saturn AL-41F1 low by-pass turbofan combat engine — the same engine that powers the Su-35, a heavy fighter-bomber designed in the 1980s. The new
engine planned for the Su-57 is not slated for production until mid-decade,
The first sentence as Scar pointed out is just good for laughs, there is and was no connection between the izd. 30 and Ukraine and definitely no dependence of the Russian industry for this. Imports substitution program was addressed mostly at older equipment that had been produced in Ukraine since the Soviet times, not to modern Russian developments, which are year lights ahead of the status of the barely surviving Ukrainian industry. So this is pure propaganda and wishful thinking. The second sentence is also false, since the engine of the Su-57 is not the same of the Su-35S (AL-41F-1 for the first and AL-41F-1S for the second), which share the layout of the old AL-31F but have modern technology and materials. Al-41F-1 has 2.5 tons thrust more than the AL-31F and weights 150 kg less, with 15 tf thrust is just one little step below F119 and is able to fulfil original requirements of the Su-57. Besides, the Su-35 was not designed in the 80's, it is a 4++ gen fighter based in the Flanker but developed in the early 2000s.
The izd. 30 is indeed planed for production after the middle of this decade, but, being considered by the designer as gen 5+ or 5++, it is difficult to say whether that is bad or good. Taking a look at the announced performance may make the authors reconsider their narrative.
Going by his sources, ranging from National Interest to War is Boring, it's a bit hard, to say the least, to take all of that on face value. For example the source which he cited to support the claim of Su-57 not going operational pre 2027 writes : "The
Su-57 is not expected to enter into serial production until upgraded engines are ready, which is unlikely to
happen until 2027.". Although I'm not sure if I'm up to date, afaik the Russian plan is to procure 70-ish 57s by 2027, which is far from what is conveyed in the source material.
Yeah, also a flat out lie. As you say, 76 serially produced Su-57 of the first stage are to be delivered until 2028. So this is akin to saying that there are no serial F-35 until block 4 enters production...
Personally, seeing this thing fly would be great...not holding my breath.
Indeed, holding your breath until 2023 may do no good