Its just a guess, seeing russia going again with single engine proposals after...what the mig-27/Su-22? is a bit weird, but well, considering (for the looks of it) its something more aimed to export..i dont have really high or low expectations. I thought it could be a part of a duo SU-57+This thing, but i guess i could save myself the doubts and wait a couple of days and see what they offer.
Sukhoi T-75 LTS (CheckMate)
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Its just a guess, seeing russia going again with single engine proposals after...what the mig-27/Su-22? is a bit weird, but well, considering (for the looks of it) its something more aimed to export..i dont have really high or low expectations. I thought it could be a part of a duo SU-57+This thing, but i guess i could save myself the doubts and wait a couple of days and see what they offer.
? The MiG-35 is being purchased for VKS currently. There were already four (I think) new airframes spotted at Akhtubinsk last year. Granted the current 35 is basically the MiG-29M2, which has had two notable export contracts in the last couple years.
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"may" is not "will". I "may" win the lottery.
Глава ОАК: новейший отечественный истребитель Су-57 будут заказывать сотнями
Юрий Слюсарь отметил, что уже в этом году ожидается начало разработки нескольких версий этой машиныtass.ru
The order for the latest fifth-generation Su-57 fighters may be measured in hundreds. This was during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin said the General Director of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) Yuri Slyusar.
Any talks of sacrificing Su-57 production numbers seems out of the question just in case anyone missed the news on that thread.
tequilashooter
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Su-57 seems to be the center of attention to the UAC director and Putin than this aircraft unless you have a reason to concur with that notion or not?
The UAC director in terms of hierarchy is above sukhoi and Mikoyan? I am sure he is aware of this new Sukhoi aircraft right? The direction seems to favor Su-57 production numbers if he didn't consider the single stage aircraft an option yet for production numbers.
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Regarding Su-57 - "our task is to reach the level of 12 cars a year together with cooperation"
This means the current order for 76 (-4 this year = 72) will take at least 6 years to build assuming they ramp up to 12 in 2022. 100 would be more than 8 years away. they could do with a cheaper fighter to build in higher numbers as well.
This means the current order for 76 (-4 this year = 72) will take at least 6 years to build assuming they ramp up to 12 in 2022. 100 would be more than 8 years away. they could do with a cheaper fighter to build in higher numbers as well.
LMFS
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Sure it will take time, but who is in a hurry?
What is better, to produce slow and keep the production lines open at a reduced cost like Russia, while you progressively phase out older planes, or to expend massively to produce in high quantities for a short period, close the lines and be then left fully exposed to accidents and changes in the threat level like USAF?
tequilashooter
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I don't disagree with you on numbers. but what he is stating is like me stating I want to go punch Mike Tyson 100 times in his prime. Sure I probably wont last landing a single punch on him but my intent still shows I want to box him like Yuris intent is he want 100s of su-57s rather if that happens or not.
Saying I dont want to box Tyson or him stating nothing than what the current order is on Su-57s that would be a different story.
He is aware of the 2nd Sukhoi project(there is no way he isnt) and on the same day he still gave his full intent on production numbers for the Su-57 not the other way around. But since no one has proof or sources that he says, "ehhh I change my mind" than I dont see how the 2nd Sukhoi project will get any production numbers unless there are international partners involved.
Also wouldn't it be waste to put new avionics, engines and weapons on the Su-57 from 2022-2024? Thing is I don't remember which of the 76 Su-57s will receive the 1st stage or 2nd stage design. They could do with a cheaper fighter as you said but I didn't hear that with Yuri.
My last response for you now since we are 5 days away I am sure we will find out if Sukhoi is searching for partners or not for this project or if they are stopping Su-57 production numbers for it. If there are no contracts for it at the end of the exhibition than his intent for the Su-57 will probably remain the same way unless you got some information I don't know of let me know.
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F-15 - 49 years of production
F-16 - 48 years of production
F-18 - 44 years of production
F-35 - production to continue to 2035, or 44
C-130 - 65 years of production
Now I'd argue that's too long in most of those cases, but even where USAF programmes have been cut short in production it's always been due to unexpected cuts in numbers funded, rather than rushing them through.
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They won't stop Su-57 production. It may well crank along at 12 a year for 10+ years. It will be the high end F-22 equivalent (possibly in more ways than Russia would like).I don't disagree with you on numbers. but what he is stating is like me stating I want to go punch Mike Tyson 100 times in his prime. Sure I probably wont last landing a single punch on him but my intent still shows I want to box him like Yuris intent is he want 100s of su-57s rather if that happens or not.
Saying I dont want to box Tyson or him stating nothing than what the current order is on Su-57s that would be a different story.
He is aware of the 2nd Sukhoi project(there is no way he isnt) and on the same day he still gave his full intent on production numbers for the Su-57 not the other way around. But since no one has proof or sources that he says, "ehhh I change my mind" than I dont see how the 2nd Sukhoi project will get any production numbers unless there are international partners involved.
Also wouldn't it be waste to put new avionics, engines and weapons on the Su-57 from 2022-2024? Thing is I don't remember which of the 76 Su-57s will receive the 1st stage or 2nd stage design. They could do with a cheaper fighter but I didn't hear that with Yuri.
My last response for you now since we are 5 days away I am sure we will find out if Sukhoi is searching for partners or not for this project or if they are stopping Su-57 production numbers for it. If there are no contracts for it at the end of the exhibition than his intent for the Su-57 will probably remain the same way unless you got some information I don't know of let me know.
The LFS would be a new production line alongside it (maybe replacing flogging old MiG-29 and Su-27 derivatives). I would expect at least a token order from Russia to get it started.
Coz, IIRC, there is an old British naval saying: Even the best warship cannot be in two placess at once.
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Deductive reasoning from the available facts, its a thing.
No, I noted the newly available facts were consistent with it.
All defence projects exist in three dimensions: technological, political, and economic. Any serious assessment of them has to consider all of those dimensions. Consideration of economics has been noticeably absent from many of the posts about this aircraft.
Technologically, we know that Sukhoi are capable of building modern aircraft. But that's only one dimension of the production puzzle.
Politically, we know that Russia wants to expand back towards superpower status, but also that it's production pronouncements are frequently not followed through (cf the Su-57), because of economic weakness. We also know, from Sukhoi's own statements, that this is a private venture aircraft and not in response to a RuAF requirement.
Economically we know that Sukhoi needs RuAF funding to get this through development, and a RuAF order to finance a production line. But we also know that production orders of Su-57 have been promised every year since 2016. It's possible this is the year it really happens, and it's just as possible that things will proceed true to established form. (I'd also note Sukhoi seems to be handbuilding the current batch of 12, so they haven't had the money for a proper production line as yet).
Sukhoi knows that the Su-57 has spent five years going nowhere because state funding keeps turning into fairy stories, and that its major export opportunity, FGFA, has probably evaporated as a result.
A conventional company would be tremendously exposed as a result. Sukhoi isn't quite a conventional company because it's effectively state backed and UAC won't be allowed to fail, but it does seem mostly to try to behave like one. So we have to ask, why would Sukhoi, facing major funding failures on Su-57, exacerbate its exposed situation by trying to get RuAF backing of a second project?
If it can't get production funding for Su-57, which does have a RuAF requirement, what makes it think it can for this, which doesn't?
And worse, if it does get production funding for this, then it's likely to cannibalize Sukhoi's sales of one or more of Su-27, Su-34 and Su-57, depending on its precise role. And if it does cannibalize orders of one of those, is the funding for the replacement guaranteed?
There's a tremendous economic risk to Sukhoi wrapped up in this aircraft.
There are only two scenarios I see that make economic sense, because I think the chances of RuAF buying both this and Su-57 given what we've seen of Russian defence procurement over the past decade are about zero.
First scenario: Sukhoi has concluded that the Su-57 is not affordable for the RuAF and it's going to be stuck in a development hell where in a good year it gets a handful of orders and in a bad year it doesn't get the money for the last set of good year orders. The only way it's going to get out of that is to replace an unaffordable aircraft with a closer to affordable one that's got a better chance of prying money out of Putin's wallet. It therefore needs an aircraft at a lower price point, and the quickest way to slice big chunks of money out of an aircraft is to ditch an engine. This isn't so much an exciting new aircraft, it's the Russian version of Volker Ruhe's Eurofighter-Lite.
Second scenario: Sukhoi still thinks it's an OKB and doesn't give a damn about production, that's something that can be left to KnAAPO. All Sukhoi wants is RuAF funding to keep developing new aircraft, who cares if they ever enter service. But that doesn't ring true given Sukhoi's relentless production and promotion of new Flanker variants in the 90s in the hope of landing an export order or two. Sales do seem to matter to them.
The argument from some in this thread that this is solely export focused just doesn't add up on economic grounds, so I'm not even calling it a third scenario. Taking a civilian aircraft to certification is reckoned to cost $1Bn nowadays, you can expect much more for a combat aircraft and for it to take a considerable amount of time, easily up to a decade based on recent examples. And then you need to spend probably as much again on productionization and creating the production line. Building fighters profitably needs both state-funded development and a major production commitment from your home state. A dozen exports here and a half-dozen there won't fund development flying and a production line.
In the end it all comes down to the money. Where does Sukhoi think that money for development and productionization is coming from? And what gets cut to pay for that? And the only scenario that makes sense to me is that they're deliberately undercutting Su-57 to try and find a solution that's cheap enough to unlock major RuAF procurement, not the odd dribble every couple of years that Su-57's getting.
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When did Sukhoi spend 5 years "waiting for funding"? You know the plane has been in development since first flight, with serious aiframe changes, and massive catchup on systems that used to be sourced from all over the former USSR? Then there was import substitution post 2014. I eagerly await sources that confirm that the program was funding starved in the last decade, and not actually busy making an ambitious plane work.
Public announcements are one thing, Sukhoi obviously never thought internally that serial production would be ready in 2016, given how short that was removed from "2nd stage" or whatever you want to call it airframe modifications, and how early in the flight program it was. The 6th serial flew in 2016.....you Sukhoi's roadmap was actually for serial production that year? Come on.
" If it can't get production funding for Su-57, which does have a RuAF requirement, what makes it think it can for this, which doesn't?"
Again, what? The plane was in development, and now it is serially produced. They are establishing a line and ramping production, just like they did with Su-35 and 34.
Public announcements are one thing, Sukhoi obviously never thought internally that serial production would be ready in 2016, given how short that was removed from "2nd stage" or whatever you want to call it airframe modifications, and how early in the flight program it was. The 6th serial flew in 2016.....you Sukhoi's roadmap was actually for serial production that year? Come on.
" If it can't get production funding for Su-57, which does have a RuAF requirement, what makes it think it can for this, which doesn't?"
Again, what? The plane was in development, and now it is serially produced. They are establishing a line and ramping production, just like they did with Su-35 and 34.
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DWG, I understand that those are your personal opinions, but there is a firm, signed production contract from the Russian State for 76 Su-57 aircraft.
The production contract was announced by Vladimir Putin in May 2019, and formally signed between the State and UAC the following month, on June 27th. That same month, official production contracts were signed for the fighters associated weaponry.
The only question really is whether there will be follow on contracts.
The production contract was announced by Vladimir Putin in May 2019, and formally signed between the State and UAC the following month, on June 27th. That same month, official production contracts were signed for the fighters associated weaponry.
The only question really is whether there will be follow on contracts.
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I've always thought a single engine distraction would be a hard sell for the VKS. Given how expensive and time intensive getting a flying and combat ready plane is, even if its 5th-gen lite or something similar, might just be simpler to stick to Su-57. Legacy birds are still being purchased to replace the remaining "Soviet" stock, and then there is the UAV presence which will grow and take up force structure in the coming decade.
This is way too sudden to believe that they succesfully stuck and funded VKS with this, I see it as Chemezov throwing on a Sukhoi label and potentially promising Rostec and state partial funding if there is sufficient foreign interest. I expect a modest mockup to test the waters for the time being.
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I think it is an incorrect comparison as those models were built during the cold war. Things are much different now. Our defense spending is so huge that even our R&D cost alone is more than the entire Russian defense spending.
So for them it seems a good choice.
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@DWG: you are painfully off in things like VKS procurement, Russian military budget, industrial development and so on. I will not comment on all the mistakes in your posts above, because they are simply too many and besides I would derail the thread. We are tired of hearing how little rubles they have, normally coming from Western people that have no real knowledge about the topic but that we must believe are sincerely concerned abut what Russians do with their money, and seeing all those claims and complains transform in time, failure after failure in their predictions, but never stop. You know, their money is their business and I would say they are doing pretty well, thank you. They will try to get funding from abroad (they don't need international trade fairs to talk to VKS) and they will try to sell to the MoD too. This is what they are expected to do, create enough international demand to relieve the state from the full development costs (to make some money, pretty much as anyone anywhere, US first and foremost) as it was tried with the FGFA, but the development of the Russian industry is ultimately not contingent on that as seen with the PAK-FA. No need to cut anything, the hi-lo mix is perfectly understood in Russia. Rest assured, they know what they do.
Same thing as above, if foreign money comes, better, if not, they will see at what speed they can develop. The plane is expedient, both for the domestic market and abroad, and they think they have a good offer, that is the important thing. A small, light single engine fighter will allow to fulfil the lower end missions at a fraction of the cost of a Su-57 and will allow the VKS to grow, since actually it is quite small for a country like Russia. Chemezov already said about the manned and unmanned versions, so the UAV paradigm is clearly not a threat but an opportunity for this program.
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Ummmmmm but Su-57 was like, cancelled? The Indians chose not to fund it so it was cancelled, the Drive told me so.
Hopefully this aircraft won't get cancelled when Argentina pulls its funding for the superior Indian AMCA or Turkish 5th gen.
tequilashooter
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I wish someone screwed up tying the cover to the aircraft and a gust of wind blew it away.
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dunno if its just me, but with the black tarp over it, and its sleek body.. kind of reminds me of an X-15 with canted twin tails
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I may be wrong of course, but I don't think this is a simple glass fibre mockup.
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Agree with that kaiserbill. The landing gear looks pretty real.
I thought we were expecting a demo? Now I can't find the article I was reading, was a Russian source.
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It can be a static test article.
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According to rumours, it is a full-operational prototype and it is already made its first flight. Can be BS of course.
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I'm seeing side intakes now? I wanted chin intake
me too! been wanting to see other chin intake 5th gen ideas besides the X-32
seems like it will be side intakes for sure.
They couldn't. Already established and running orders are non-negotiable.
Yeah, ok, I see now. You really should work with fact checking before "deductive reasoning" kicks in.
We've seen hundreds (over 300 to be precise) new tactical aviation airframes, hundreds new built helis, a lot of refurbished and deeply modernized airframes, absolute fuckton of new and modernized AFVs. Then there goes all special equipment, SAMs, submarines ... Only place procurement is really somewhat lagging is surface naval. But we aren't talking about ships here, right?
So, WHAT do we know about russian procurement in last decade?
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Be nicer please or be banned. If you disagree with someone you can be polite in your disagreement. No arguments.
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I wonder how much time and money does it take to develop a completely new airframe, provided you have a set of mature systems - avionics, actuators, engines, sensors etc. - that have been proven to work together, like say, in the case of the Su-57. With modern aerodynamic simulations, I think most of the flight characteristics can be worked out using software - probably there's much less need for wind tunnel tests, or dropping gliders from airplanes. The bottom line is, I think if they managed to reuse most of the stuff from their existing fighters, this project might've been cheaper than one would think. Of course, arranging for the tooling for serial airframes is not easy, nor cheap - but I think they can cross that bridge when they'll know just how much airframes are they going to sell.
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Maybe they are seeing/identifying what they want to see? It will be interesting to see it finally unveiled without all covers... The gear etc looks a lot more operational than I would guess those on a wooden/glass fiber mock-up would be as others have mentioned... Exciting times in aviation!
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