Orionblamblam said:I am perpetually perplexed by all the bullcrap around the world with, say, the Russian government worrying specifically about non-Russian citizens in a non-Russian nation simply because they happen to speak Russian, or have similar ethnic roots. To me it makes as much sense as the US government worrying about the fifth-generation descendants of American citizens who, say, gave up their US citizenship and moved to Argentina a century ago, over the *other* Argentinians.
When you have people like these in the government, you should be worried, not perplexed.
Ihor Tenyukh – interim defense minister and a member of Svoboda’s political council. Formerly commander of Ukraine’s navy, in 2008, during Russia’s war with Georgia, he ordered Ukrainian warships to block the entrance of the Russian Navy to the bay of Sevastopol.
Andriy Parubiy – National Security Council chief, co-founded Svoboda back when it was the “Social National” (ahem!) party.
Dmytro Yarosh – deputy head of the National Security Council, i.e. the police, and the founder-leader of "Right Sector," a militant neo-Nazi paramilitary group that took charge of security in the Maiden.
Oleh Makhnitsky – Svoboda member of parliament, is prosecutor-general.
Oleksandr Sych – Svoboda parliamentarian and the party’s chief ideologist, is deputy prime minister for economic affairs.
Serhiy Kvit – a leading member of Svoboda, is to head up the Education Ministry.
Andriy Moknyk – the new Minister of Ecology, has been Svoboda’s envoy to other European fascist parties. Last year, he met with representatives of Italy’s violent neo-fascist gang, Forza Nuovo.
Ihor Shvaika – agro-oligarch and a member of Svoboda, has been appointed Minister of Agriculture. One of the richest men in the country, His massive investments in agriculture would seem to indicate a slight conflict of interest.
EU supports these people. I wonder what the German public thinks about their government supporting the Nazis in Ukraine?
Those two organizations (Svoboda party and Right Sector paramilitaries) want ethnically clean Ukraine, and according to them, anyone who does not like it should move to Russia. I won’t go into details about their anti Russian rants, but those people want nuclear weapons, in a country which possess stockpiles of nuclear waste and missile technology. Just what the world needs, nazis with dirty A-bomb. People who call Chechen terrorists of Doku Umarov for help in a fight against Russia.
I don’t know, perhaps their strategy is to poke the bear with stick enough times in order to provoke a full invasion and then call for help from the west in order to fight the “Communists”.
Let’s go to the timetable of events again.
EU forced Ukraine to choose between EU led customs union and Russian led one. Look at the problem from the perspective of Ukrainian industry. I’ll mention two examples:
Avto Zaz produces local version of Dewoo Lanos. A mediocre car, but because all the parts are produced in Ukraine, which has free trade agreement with Russia, they can export them there without taxes (Serbia for instance has that agreement too, but because not all the parts for Fiat 500L are made in Serbia, it cannot export them without taxes). In fact, 80% of their production goes to Russia. With EU affiliation, there would be regular import taxes for Russian market, and more expensive gas for Ukrainian industry. They would be uncompetitive in both east and west.
Motor Sich company from the same city (Zaporozhye) produces aircraft and helicopter engines for Russian market. If Ukraine moves solely towards the west, they would be more expensive than their Russian competitors, and again, no one would buy the stuff they make on the west.
In both cases, the conversion to western standards is possible (hell, we managed to bring Zastava which produced Yugo back from the dead J) but who would foot the bill? US? EU? For a country that has several times the population of Greece?
Can anyone in those circumstances blame the former Ukrainian government from choosing the Russian offer instead of EU one? EU is to blame here, they forced them to choose instead of trying to make them an offer which does not prevent Ukraine from joining the Russian customs union if it is in Ukraine’s best interest.
US foreign policy is in standard fuck the EU, let’s stick it to the Russians mode, without any regards to consequences to the people involved.
People who want Ukraine as EU member protested, and they had all the right to do so. Protests were peaceful and on one occasion there were 200.000 participants. The reality of their wishes is another matter. They had the chance to vote in the 2015 elections.
The number of protesters declined as far right organizations took the initiative in the protests. In the end, president and opposition (with EU signatories as well) signed a treaty on February 21st which called for an early elections in December. A few days later, the paramilitaries stormed the parliament and new government was formed, with one of the three opposition parties being Svoboda. The legality of the government is dubious, having no parties from the south and east of the country and with questionable parliament voting which ousted the former president.
EU recognized that government, and sent the message that it is okay to topple the government using nazis if the goal is right.
I won’t speculate about the sniper killings. EU (according to intercepted phone conversation between baroness Eshton and Estonian foreign minister) contemplated the possibility that one of the opposition groups hired them to shoot both protesters and the police. But I have a problem with the new government not investigating those killings.
Wait, where have I seen that before?Orionblamblam said:Given how good crony capitalism has been to Putin, he's unlikely trying to reconstitute the USSR as such... but a Russian Empire seems not unlikely. Anyone willing to expend political capital and military forces on a mission of such dubious value as ethnicity is capable of pretty much anything.
Ukraine 2014 Is Grenada 1983
Posted: 03/04/2014 3:29 pm EST Updated: 03/04/2014 5:59 pm EST
Before the U.S. gets too worked up about the Russian "invasion" of Ukraine, it should recall its own invasion in 1983 of the idyllic island of Grenada some 100 miles from the United States. America invaded Grenada to install a U.S.-friendly government after a Communist coup had led to the breakdown of law and order on the island. The pretext for the invasion was the danger the situation posed for the lives of a few hundred U.S. medical students on Grenada. I was in favor of that invasion. After all, the Cold War was in full bloom, and like President Reagan, I did not want a Communist foothold in America's backyard.
Well, Ukraine and Georgia are Russia's backyard. Russian President Vladimir Putin made that clear in 2008 by making the Bush administration back down in its attempt to pull Georgia into NATO. When Mikheil Saakashvili, the tempestuous leader of Georgia, then lobbed artillery shells on ethnic Russians in their Georgian enclaves, it gave Russia the pretext to invade Georgia, rout its armed forces and demonstrate its intent to not let NATO and Western influence creep up to Russia's borders. President Bush huffed and puffed but could do nothing to reverse Russia's actions.
Flash forward to December 2013. When Viktor Yanukovych, the Kremlin-leaning president of Ukraine, vetoed an association agreement between his country and the European Union that would have established a free-trade zone and bolstered political ties between the former Soviet republic and the EU, Ukrainians who favored closer EU ties turned out to protest in the streets. A highly charged political drama began to unfold in Kiev. It was a drama driven at its core by Russia's belief that, for its vital national interests, Ukraine could not be allowed to tilt towards the EU, for many reasons, chief among them Russia's alarm at being surrounded by NATO, the Western military alliance led by the United States and including the Central and Eastern European countries of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, Albania, and Croatia. (It did not help that the State Department sent an American diplomat to publicly demonstrate solidarity with the protesters by handing out cookies and openly supporting their cause.)
Notwithstanding the establishment of a NATO-Russia Council and other hand-holding gestures loudly trumpeted by Mr. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO's secretary general, Russia still believes NATO to be an existential threat to its security. I discovered this first-hand during the Brussels release of my book on NATO three years ago, when I asked Dmitri Rogozin, then Russia's ambassador to NATO, whether he thought Russia would cozy up to the new, kinder, gentler NATO. The big, burly ambassador, who is now in charge of Russia's defense industry, leaned over to me and said, "Kashmeri, if your grandmother grows whiskers, does she become your grandfather?"
Unless the U.S. and the EU want to start another cold war in the heart of Europe, they need to recognize Russia's interests as they are, and not as the West would like them to be. With that in mind, here are my two cents' worth of advice for the Obama administration:
Stop making threats to financially strangle Russia through sanctions. They will not work. Yes, the world is an interconnected, seamless global enterprise now. But that means the U.S. and the EU are also plugged into the same global network and cannot escape being hurt by such steps. No wonder Britain is already drawing up plans to ensure that any EU action against Russia over Ukraine will exempt the City of London.
Let the EU take the lead to work out a diplomatic route forward in this debacle. The Obama administration would do well to remember that the Georgian war ended with EU mediation, with EU monitors on the ground to track the ceasefire agreement. The Russians agreed to this arrangement because they did not trust Americans. They still don't.
Stop the talk about NATO expansion to Georgia and Ukraine. And for heaven's sake stop NATO's secretary general from making bellicose statements against Russia. He is the head of a military alliance that is part of the problem.
Finally, the Obama administration should also recall that Vladimir Putin has won every KGB award there is. He is surely not for turning.
So let's cool the temperature and "jaw, jaw" instead of "war, war," as Winston Churchill was fond of saying.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sarwar-kashmeri/ukraine-2014-is-grenada-1983_b_4897596.html
US and Russia will respect the international law only when it suits them. Nothing new under the sun. Just another “unique case” declaration of independence.
Status quo is already gone, the government wants to revert to the previous constitution which gives more power to the government and less to the president. Without referendum I might add. This is the reaction to that decision. Option a is independence, option b is going back to Crimean constitution of 1992 which defines Crimea as state in Ukraine.Orionblamblam said:
Neat:
Ukraine Secession Referendum Does Not Have a ‘No’ OptionCheck one of the following. If neither is checked, the ballot is rejected as illegitimate:
[list type=disc]
[*] “Do you support joining Crimea with the Russian Federation as a citizen of the Russian Federation?”’
[*] “Do you support restoration of 1992 Crimean Constitution and Crimea’s status as a part of Ukraine?”
[/list] The second option is *not* a "I want to keep things as they are" vote, but a vote for Crimean autonomy.
Orionblamblam said:Sure. To some people, murder, rape, genocide, theft all on industrial scales all make some sort of sense.
There are parts of the world where these terms are used to describe the “taming” of the “wild” west.
The funny thing is, new Russian troops coming to Crimea had no insignia but forgot to remove Russian military licence plates from their trucks in first few days.
As to the questions of EU sanctions, the press photographed one page of UK’s delegation papers on EU summit. Chelsea fans will be relieved, UK would insist that City of London financial market will be exempted from any decision regarding the sanctions against Russian
Meanwhile, David Blackadder Cameron is executing the standard four stage strategy of Foreign Office:
We have got to make sure we have Russia and Ukraine talking to each other, and demonstrate that we will help the people of Ukraine in their hour of need, and send a message to the Russian government that what has happened is unacceptable and if any further actions were taken that would be even more unacceptable and would require further consequences.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSD1d-6P6qI#t=9