This brings back some really dark memories. Hopefully Ukrainians will be more mature than Yugoslavia was. Nazis, Ukrainian version of Novak Djokovic, convicted gas tycoons on the one side and Russian puppet politicians and tycoons on the other. Poor people. I can’t decide which media outlets are worse, Russian or western ones. TV evangelists everywhere. We have been there, this situation will leave deep scars on Ukrainian society.
Orionblamblam said:
It is my understanding that the majority of the Russian-speakers in Ukraine are Stalin-era imports and their descendants. Thus, Ukraine demanding that they learn Ukrainian is no more a difficult situation than France demanding that Algerian immigrants learn French, or Denmark demanding that Egyptian immigrants learn Danish, or Japan demanding that immigrants learn Japanese.
Hardly, they had their first state there, Kiev Rus (Russians, Belarus, Ukrainians), before the Mongols conquered them. I believe the emotions towards Ukraine are similar to those of Serbs about Kosovo and Metohija, they too had their early state there and the Patriarchate building of Serbian Orthodox Church is still in the town of Peć although the Patriarch is located in Belgrade now.
bobbymike said:
It would be a longer term approach but you could announce it right away. The US could lift its' energy export controls and start shipping excess nat. gas in the form of LNG to Europe and break Moscow's near gas monopoly in Europe and the Ukraine.
Over the longer term you could help places like Poland and the Ukraine frack its shale gas deposits and eventually get close to energy independence. This is what Moscow and Putin fear most IMHO.
I am trying to find an article that talks about Moscow's support of European anti-fracking groups while they frack away in Russia.
I cant remember where i have read the article about fracking attempts in Poland. It seems methods used in the US can’t be used there because of the different soil.
The main division of Ukraine is on poor agricultural west and slightly richer industrial east. Ukrainian industry in general is soviet based and outdated. It relies heavily on Russian gas. Those things that they make are not competitive in the west. EU does not want another wave of cheap labor in its borders or cheap agricultural products from Ukraine. EU admission was never offered to Ukraine.
The coup government wanted to exclude Russian, Hungarian and Romanian languages from official use. The second thing was removing the law that prohibits Nazi propaganda. The wanted to ban the local Communist party too. Those people in western Ukraine are celebrating their WW2 quislings, which amongst other atrocities, fought against partisans in Yugoslavia.
There won’t be any sanctions. Can EU do without those 6000+ German companies alone in Russia and 140-200 billion USD worth of exports? That was one of the reasons why Germany put a veto on Ukrainian and Georgian admission into NATO in 2008. This is not Call of Duty. When you declare a general mobilization and 1-1,5% of people show up, what does that say about the government? People need to sit, talk, make an agreement, sign it and then stick to it.
Ukrainians need as much OSCE observers as possible, for starters. Storming local parliaments, choking local administration with their own ties and threatening them with automatic rifles is not democracy. Having Nazis such as Svoboda party in government and Right Sector paramilitary in the streets will result in secessions or military occupation of regular or irregular Russian army in those southern and eastern regions where the party of ousted president had won in the last elections.
This was a dangerous precedent, ousting elected president (corrupt tycoon and Russian puppet), who won the last elections against pro-European parties (corrupt tycoons too) in a coup.Ukraine needs new interim government until the next elections, which will have to be heavily monitored. EU needs to help them as much as possible in strengthening their shallow institutions. Existing government and rump parliament (we had a huge affair where one MP voted with two cards, the other MP was on vacation – there is a video from Kiev parliament where they did the same) are a mess. They wanted 5 billion in loans until last weekend or they would collapse. Nobody took them seriously. On the other side, Russia is making one indecent proposal after another (in the best manner of the West) such as 6 billion USD of financial aid and investments for Crimea alone. The Kerch-Crimea bridge story is in the news again too.
As long as this coup government is in place, the Russia has an excuse to behave like a bully, stopping the imports of Ukrainian meat under the pretext of Ukrainian veterinary services not being able to check its quality anymore due to the chaos. They ceased buying Ukrainian bonds too. And please, get Victoria Nuland and John McCain out of Kiev and into the Zoo or Cold War museum.
We balanced between the East and West with good results, at least while Tito was alive and Cold War was on. Will Ukraine have the strength and wisdom to do the same in this still unipolar world? I hope they do.