Possible upcoming skirmish (or worse) in or around Korean Peninsula?

[chuck4]

That telegram is largely discredited as an effort by South Korean nationalists to minimize the risks associated actively destabilizing North Korea to force a unification, and thus obtain tacit us support for their actions. In the past the US has reigned in both South Korea and Taiwan when it perceives the actions of its allies involves risks of putting the US itself on collision course with China. Nationalists on these countries have responded by creating rumors that the Chinese really wouldn't mind if they did what they wanted to do.

That isn't the opinion of South Korean nationalists or The Telegram. It is the opinion of the Chinese as documented in leaked diplomatic cables.

It is a diplomatic transcript of a conversation between US envoy and South Korean vice foreign minister, in which the vice minister opined that China wouldn't make trouble if north korea were to be absorb into sorth korea. It is hardly the original source regarding opinions of the Chinese.

 

[chuck4]

The sky is not falling, not yet.

Just a simple question. Let's suppose North Korea launch a single missile against, say, Guam. With a nuclear warhead. It gets shoot down by an ABM system, debris fall into the Pacific, no damage to anybody.

Does the USA in turn send a single nuclear missile on North Korea ? Or are conventional strikes by B-2 bombers (to destroy the launch site) enough ?

I think this is an important question to answer (I want to add: that question is not supposed to be a provocation to trigger any inflammatory discussion)

If the north korean warhead does not explode, then no immediate proof of nuclear use, then attack north korean missile installations with conventional cruise missiles. If proof is found later on, then follow it up with a B-2 nuclear strike on Korean nuclear installations.

If the warhead on the korean missile does explode nuclearly, then immediately launch a nuclear counter strike with B-2s on Korean nuclear facilities.

The point is if North Korea is prepared to launch a nuclear weapon, then it is clearly prepared to really fight, and there is no loss in launching a limited nuclear retaliation.

 

[Gridlock]

You'll know it's bad when Colin Powell turns up at the UN. Then I'll worry.

 

[sublight_]

It is a diplomatic transcript of a conversation between US envoy and South Korean vice foreign minister, in which the vice minister opined that China wouldn't make trouble if north korea were to be absorb into sorth korea. It is hardly the original source regarding opinions of the Chinese.

The site is down right now, otherwise I'd list a plethora of direct Chinese comments critical of the Norks.
http://www.cablegatesearch.net/search.php?q=China

 

[chuck4]

It is a diplomatic transcript of a conversation between US envoy and South Korean vice foreign minister, in which the vice minister opined that China wouldn't make trouble if north korea were to be absorb into sorth korea. It is hardly the original source regarding opinions of the Chinese.

The site is down right now, otherwise I'd list a plethora of direct Chinese comments critical of the Norks.
http://www.cablegatesearch.net/search.php?q=China

These criticisms just shows Chinese media, commentaries and opinions are no longer as monolithic and scripted as it once was under Mao, or as they were with the Soviet Union. They don't show the Chinese are prepared to actually abandon a major strategic asset in the near future.


They perceive themselves as a rising power. As a rising power it is in their interest to not let disputes around them settle so long as the dispute is not an immediate intolerable drain. This is because the longer they wait, they stronger they think they would become, and the more they would be able to influence the terms of settlement to be more favorable to themselves. In effect, to their eyes, status quo leads to good things.


So I see no reason why China would want to accept any settlement to the division of Korean issue now.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Let's suppose North Korea launch a single missile against, say, Guam. With a nuclear warhead.

If NK launches a nuke, the NK government is going down. End of story. If the nuke goes off, they will probably get a nuke back. If the nuke doesn't go off, either due to ABMs or just a bad bomb, then a massive conventional strike would be appropriate.

But in short, the use of nukes (even unsuccessfully, or even incompetantly) is *not* something that can be shrugged off these days.

 

[sferrin]

It will all depend on WHO comes to the aid of North Korea if it does launch attacks on the US and its allies. -SP

If China were to they would destroy their economy in days and wipe out all of their sovereign wealth. To gain what?

Uncle Sugar would be laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[Deino]

Hmmm ...

U.S. amassing B-1 strategic bombers near North Korea

Deino

 

[Mat Parry]

Would B1's be the serious choice if things were really afoot, or is this just counter posturing? I guess 7 B2's would be too valuable to risk (not sure if Guam can support the specialised hanger requirements of that many $2000000000 batwings)

 

[chuck4]

Would B1's be the serious choice if things were really afoot, or is this just counter posturing? I guess 7 B2's would be too valuable to risk (not sure if Guam can support the specialised hanger requirements of that many $2000000000 batwings)

It seems likely to me that north Korean air defence will be suppressed within hours on onset of hostility. What would be the purpose of using B-2?


Besides, operating b-2 near china would only serve to let the Chinese collect intelligence on the aircraft.

 

[kcran567]

It seems like this "crisis" is calming down. It pisses me off that NKorea uses this tactic to shake down the west for $$$ or whatever to get what it wants. Threatening a nuclear war. What a bunch of A**holes. Lets hope there is a little payback in order behind the scenes. Not against the dirt poor bastards that are busy starving to death, but against the regime and their spoiled brat leader. How about a nice plutonium sandwich. Maybe not enough to kill the brat, but enough to make all his hair fall out. Unless they punish the pudgy little brat, this is going to be an annual event we have to deal with every March/April.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

What a bunch of A**holes.

They are alone. They are a dying people; we should let them pass

 

[Graham1973]

North Korea says it can't assure the safety of embassies in Pyongyang after April 10, and is urging Britain, Russia and other European nations to evacuate diplomatic staff amid soaring nuclear tensions.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2013/04/06/01/24/nkorea-warns-it-can-t-protect-embassies



Has North Korea ever done this before, I can't remember them ever issuing such a statement on any other occasion they've tried to ratchet up the tension.

IMHO, the real danger is not that they want a war, but that one could start by accident.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

IMHO, the real danger is not that they want a war, but that one could start by accident.

They may want to review what they are saying/doing/threatening then. I would also add that their rhetoric is greatly increasing the chance of an "unwanted, accidental" war.

 

[Gridlock]

Has North Korea ever done this before, I can't remember them ever issuing such a statement on any other occasion they've tried to ratchet up the tension.

IMHO, the real danger is not that they want a war, but that one could start by accident.

Well, they've cancelled the ceasefire six times since 1994, apparently.


It's worth remembering the biggest setback, which led to them going ahead and developing warheads, was the collapse of the Agreed Framework. This was a choice made by a president, can't remember his name, short guy, funny way of talking? Seems to go completely unmentioned on the news.


An 'accidental' war is the most likely route to outright hostilities, it would seem - I hope everyone's charts are up to date.

 

[chuck4]

It's worth remembering the biggest setback, which led to them going ahead and developing warheads, was the collapse of the Agreed Framework. This was a choice made by a president, can't remember his name, short guy, funny way of talking? Seems to go completely unmentioned on the news.

All presidents since 1980 were within an inch of the same height, except of course the shorty Dubya, who was a good 2 inches shorter than everyone else, including his father. But even he was not fat.

 

[Triton]

Seven B-1 Lancers deployed to Guam?

Source:
http://theaviationist.com/2013/04/05/lancer-nk/#.UWBV48otcug

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

Seven B-1 Lancers deployed to Guam?

Source:
http://theaviationist.com/2013/04/05/lancer-nk/#.UWBV48otcug

Hey look! F-22's dropping bombs too

http://theaviationist.com/2013/03/31/raptor-korea/#.UWB1JxyyBhk

 

[chuck4]

B-1 can drop many more bombs of many more different varieties from much further away. B-1 can fly further and faster on after burners than F-22 can cruising at subsonic speeds.

 

[Rafael]

Popular Mechanics, for what it's worth: http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/military/this-is-what-air-war-over-korea-would-look-like-15293363?click=pm_news

 

[kcran567]

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/cb0ZyGOi2ME?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

N Korean propaganda Air Force video

 

[GTX]

Time for some humour in all of this:

There he is...that so called hairdresser bastard who gave me this ridiculous hairstyle!!!​

 

[Rickshaw]

I see a representative of the Dear Leader's Youth division is there guarding him.

 

[2IDSGT]

I see a representative of the Dear Leader's Youth division is there guarding him.

Girl or boy? (I can't tell) Looks extraordinarily well-nourished compared to other Norks.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

Yes I see them! So they're just like us, but with food and money?​

 

[Deino]

The NK military leaders are in great fear that the US imperialsts might steal the NK-gold depot.

 

[Grey Havoc]

[Raises eyebrow]


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9976634/As-Kim-Jong-un-plays-the-tough-guy-his-aunt-and-uncle-hold-the-reins-of-power.html

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100209217/north-koreas-real-reason-for-starting-world-war-iii-to-save-its-35000-sacred-statues/

 

[starviking]

Update: No B-1s at Guam

http://theaviationist.com/2013/04/06/mysterious-deployment/#.UWFA4TdW-68

Now where did they go?

 

[chuck4]

The NK military leaders are in great fear that the US imperialsts might steal the NK-gold depot.

With all these walking disco balls the party scene in Pyongyang must be something else.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

The NK military leaders are in great fear that the US imperialsts might steal the NK-gold depot.

With all these walking disco balls the party scene in Pyongyang must be something else.

I don't know whether to salute them or stick them in a rap video.

 

[TomS]

The NK military leaders are in great fear that the US imperialsts might steal the NK-gold depot.

Photoshopped. Here's the real one.

 

[Gridlock]

Re: Update: No B-1s at Guam

http://theaviationist.com/2013/04/06/mysterious-deployment/#.UWFA4TdW-68

Now where did they go?

To the world's slowest aircraft carrier perhaps?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wake_Island

 

[TomS]

Wake seems unlikely. It doesn't have ammunition dumps or any of the other infrastructure you'd want to support multiple heavy bombers.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

The NK military leaders are in great fear that the US imperialsts might steal the NK-gold depot.

Photoshopped. Here's the real one.

Oh that's not nearly as bad then. Puts them right in that sweet spot between USAF Colonel and African Dictator ;D

 

[kcran567]

Yes I see them! So they're just like us, but with food and money?
[/c]​

I wish I could go to the Gangnam Style concert. Its hard to see from this distance.​

 

[kcran567]

Maybe that is his reason for invading SKorea, to see his favorite performer whenever he wants.

 

[chuck4]

North Korea appears to be preparing another nuclear test. Since it is probable that North Korea has very few warheads, it should be encouraged to waste more warhead on demonstrations.

 

[UpForce]

Not my work (I cannot credit it to anyone either, I got forwarded an imgur link without much of an explanation) but ... this just works on so many levels.

 

[TaiidanTomcat]

;D ;D^

 

[Archibald]

Gosh, that's funny.

you know what ? whatif some genealogist found that Psy and Kim were related - that they had some common ancestor far away in time ?

Imagine the fuss...

Maybe that is his reason for invading SKorea, to see his favorite performer whenever he wants.

I'm suprise no-one has photoshoped that picture, putting Kim face instead of Psy...